2020/21 preview and expectations thread

[LGR4GM]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

One thing I look at when assessing a team is how a player performed last year compared to their established levels. If a team had a lot of players having career years, should we be expecting drop-offs, and vice-versa? Is a player young enough to be expected to be trending up? Old enough that a decline is likely? Here's what we got last year:

Breakout:

Eichel (24)

Lazar (25)

Good

Ullmark (27)

Ristolainen (26)

Dahlin (20)

McCabe (27)

Staal (36)

Reinhart (25)

Girgensons (26)

Okposo (32)

Disappointing

Montour (26)

Miller (28)

Hall (29)

Rieder (27)

Bust

Hutton (34)

Irwin (33)

Eakin (29)

Mittelstadt (22)

Skinner (28)

Thompson (23)

Rookies

Olofsson (25)

Jokiharju (21)

Asplund (23)

I like the list in general but how can Thompson be a bust? He played like 6minutes in Buffalo and then got injured. 

[JohnC]

7 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I like the list in general but how can Thompson be a bust? He played like 6minutes in Buffalo and then got injured. 

That injury was very disappointing. I wanted to see how he would do getting a lot of playing time. Would it show that he was a promising player or that he still was physically overmatched? I think with this year's offseason training regimen he would be more ready to become a contributing player. Is he a second line caliber of winger? I'm not sure. If he becomes a solid third line player at least he would be a contributor. This is the season where he needs to establish himself. 

[dudacek]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

I like the list in general but how can Thompson be a bust? He played like 6minutes in Buffalo and then got injured. 

I realize bust is usually associated with fault, but his season was worse than just disappointing because he played like 6minutes in Buffalo and then got injured. 

[LGR4GM]

My concern with Tage going into the season was will he be quick. There have always been times when watching him where his shot, or pass, or even burst is just not NHL level because it happens too slowly. 

[Sabres Fan in NS]

Expectations ... playoffs.

[dudacek]

Saw this Sabres data from Natural Stat Trick posted elsewhere:

• Goals for: 21st best
• Goals against: 12th best
• Expected goals for: 30th best
• Expected goals against: 12th best
• Scoring chances for: 29th best
• Scoring chances against: 5th best
• Total shot attempts for: 30th best
• Total shot attempts against: 4th best

Looks like the profile of a defensively responsible team that was hampered by a terrible offence, a bad PK and mediocre goaltending.

Most of us think the changes up front plus the maturation of Dahlin add up to serious leap up front. Players were brought in to help the PK.

Do we have a goalie coming?

[PerreaultForever]

On 12/15/2020 at 3:18 AM, Brawndo said:

Right now it’s the Top 4 from each division making the playoffs. 

Well if that's the case, with no wild cards, I don't see us making the playoffs. Arguably it's the toughest division and we might be better than numerous teams in the 2nd group (aside from Tampa) and we'd probably be right in the thick of it among the Canadian grouping but can we really be better than Pittsburgh, Boston and Washington? Philly would have to have a big drop off and/or the islanders but with their coaching they are always there so I'd say slim hopes at best. 

Top 2 plus wildcards and I think we're in for sure. Maybe even top 3 like usual. 

[LGR4GM]

I expect this team to make the playoffs. 

[dudacek]

To me the Sabres may have the biggest range of question marks in the league:

• Is Ralph Krueger a snake oil salesman who lacks the tactical knowledge to win in the NHL, or a master motivator who last season laid the groundwork needed for the Sabres to take a leap?
• Is Jack Eichel a good first-line centre, or one of the premier players in the NHL?
• Is Taylor Hall a 60-point top-six winger, or 90-point elite talent capable of being in the conversation for MVP?
• Is Jeff Skinner a 14-goal scorer or a 40-goal scorer?
• Is Erik Staal a too-comfortable veteran playing out his last contract, or a competitive, capable 2C with the exactly the right kind of leadership this group needs?
• Is Cody Eakin the bum we see in last year's counting stats and fancy stats, or the legitimate 3C he has been most of his career?
• Will the Sabres again be one of the worst penalty killing teams of all-time, or will the additions of Eakin and Tobias Rieder help them at least regress to the mean?
• Is Rasmus Dahlin an offensively gifted, defensively fragile 2nd pairing PP specialist or about to emerge as a franchise D?
• Will Dylan Cozens, Casey Mittelstadt, Tage Thompson, Linus Ullmark, Victor Olofsson and/or Henri Jokiharju stall, or show themselves to be unready, or did they develop during the time off to the point they can provide clear improvements to last year's roster?
• Are Ristolainen, Montour, Miller and McCabe a bunch of replacement-level third-pairing defencemen, or a solid mix of 2nd-pair talent?
• Is Carter Hutton the absolute sieve he was last winter (who later admitted to serious vision problems), or can he be the solid goalie he was to start the past two seasons and throughout his time in St. Louis

None of the above would surprise me. If most of the answers reflect the first options, the Sabres will again be picking in the top 10. If most of them reflect the second options this will be the surprise team of the year. In my view, it will come down to their goaltending.

 

[Zamboni]

I can see Skinner getting to 30-32 goals. I personally don’t see him getting to 40.

I can see Ullmark getting the majority of starts. And Hutton being a .500 backup.

I can see Hall getting 35-45 goals. 80- 90 points.

I can see Staal getting 55-65 points.

I can see Eichel getting roughly the same points at 85-95 points.

When I take into considerations of hot streaks, cold streaks, injuries and chemistry issues. Line juggling, slow starts, not playing a full 60 mins etc ... That’s roughly what I expect. Of course I hope for more from all.

[PromoTheRobot]

The Capitals suddenly need a goalie.

 

 

[LTS]

24 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

The Capitals suddenly need a goalie.

 

 

Damn.. you have to think there's a good chance that he just won't play again.  Not the way for someone who represented the game so well to go out.

But health is a priority.. it has to be.

 

[Marvin]

On 12/16/2020 at 6:00 PM, PerreaultForever said:

Well if that's the case, with no wild cards, I don't see us making the playoffs. Arguably it's the toughest division and we might be better than numerous teams in the 2nd group (aside from Tampa) and we'd probably be right in the thick of it among the Canadian grouping but can we really be better than Pittsburgh, Boston and Washington? Philly would have to have a big drop off and/or the islanders but with their coaching they are always there so I'd say slim hopes at best. 

Top 2 plus wildcards and I think we're in for sure. Maybe even top 3 like usual. 

This is where I am.  I would expect us to make the playoffs if we had the normal alignments.  With the divisions as projected without non-divisional play, we have to hope that a couple of teams drop off as well as our major questions (goaltending beyond Ullmark, scoring depth, and the defencive jumble) have to be answered positively.

[Thorner]

On 12/16/2020 at 11:03 AM, New Scotland (NS) said:

Expectations ... playoffs.

It's absolutely gotta be the expectation at this point. 

I don't think it's my prediction without a goalie add, but it's the baseline of success. I also definitely think we have the forwards for it. 

Edited December 18, 2020 by Thorny

[JohnC]

13 hours ago, Thorny said:

It's absolutely gotta be the expectation at this point. 

I don't think it's my prediction without a goalie add, but it's the baseline of success. I also definitely think we have the forwards for it. 

I'm a bit confused with your response. Assuming our goaltenders remain the current tandem do you believe the Sabres are a playoff team? I'm not disputing your position because I'm not sure what it is? I acknowledge there is reasonable justification to each side of the issue.

I believe the Sabres will qualify for the playoffs with our current goalie tandem. As like you I believe with the added forwards and with internal improvement I consider this team good enough to be a playoff team. They are not in my mind a Cup contender but they do have enough talent to be in the playoffs even with the more challenging alignment.   

[Thorner]

1 hour ago, JohnC said:

I'm a bit confused with your response. Assuming our goaltenders remain the current tandem do you believe the Sabres are a playoff team? I'm not disputing your position because I'm not sure what it is? I acknowledge there is reasonable justification to each side of the issue.

I believe the Sabres will qualify for the playoffs with our current goalie tandem. As like you I believe with the added forwards and with internal improvement I consider this team good enough to be a playoff team. They are not in my mind a Cup contender but they do have enough talent to be in the playoffs even with the more challenging alignment.   

To me, the expectation is the same regardless of aptitude - you sign up for a class, there's a passing grade, regardless of what you bring to it. Playoffs is that pass at this point in time for the Sabres and I'm not sure how it could be anything else. 

If the current goalie tandem remains the same: While certainly possible, no, I would not predict the Sabres to be a playoff team. 

Hope that clarifies. 

Edited December 18, 2020 by Thorny

[Thorner]

My at-this-time prediction is not so much a reflection of a failed offseason, and much more so a reflection of how far in the hole we were to start. The offseason has been quite good, but my perception was it needed to be exceptional to make up the ground we needed to - ~14 points. Which is a lot.

When looking at these things I don't like to, nor think it makes logical sense to predict improvement based on the advancement of our youth - *every* team has new, upcoming players who represent growth potential, I don't claim to know the ins-and-outs of every other team's system to the point where I'd feel anywhere close to comfortable projecting more growth in this area for us, overall, than other teams, NM the amount necessary to make up standings points.

When making a prediction I feel compelled to rely on established data. The offseason (again, while strong) more less amounts to Hall, Staal in and Larsson out (and it should be noted, and is well documented on here, I have a healthy appreciation for what Larsson brought to the team), which I do not think makes up 7 wins over an 82 game frame. 

Again, just because it's not what think the smart money should be on, doesn't mean I don't see it as *reasonably* possible that we can make up the necessary ground - past precedent says it's more unlikely that not, but - there could be net-gain for our youth relative to the league, Hall and Jack could absolutely go off, there are other possibilities - and in combination it could bridge the gap. 

[LGR4GM]

I think we missed the playoffs last year because Ullmark got hurt, not because he wasn't good enough. 

[Thorner]

2 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I think we missed the playoffs last year because Ullmark got hurt, not because he wasn't good enough. 

Yes, maybe the faux playoffs. He didn't have close to the production or WAR to make up the difference we needed over the course of a full season

Also, the thought that we won't have to rely on the backup for something significant, especially in a condensed season would be a pretty hopeful one, injury or not. 

Edited December 18, 2020 by Thorny

[Taro T]

5 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

I think we missed the playoffs last year because Ullmark got hurt, not because he wasn't good enough. 

Sabres missed the playoffs last year in large part because Ullmark got injured and roughly from when they went to Sweden, Hutton became Bob Essensa (and not the Winnipeg version of him 😉 ).

[dudacek]

 New piece on Tage Thompson says he’s been skating regularly at HarbourCentre for a while now with a group of Sabres including Eichel, Okposo and Montour.

They are going to get a lot of company very soon.

By the Way, Tage has put on another 13 pounds since last training camp. He’s nearly 6’7” and a shade under 230. Fingers crossed his brain has grown with his body.

[Taro T]

13 minutes ago, dudacek said:

 New piece on Tage Thompson says he’s been skating regularly at HarbourCentre for a while now with a group of Sabres including Eichel, Okposo and Montour.

They are going to get a lot of company very soon.

By the Way, Tage has put on another 13 pounds since last training camp. He’s nearly 6’7” and a shade under 230. Fingers crossed his brain has grown with his body.

Well if he doesn't raise his board side arm to brace for a hit, that's a step in the right direction.

[LGR4GM]

9 hours ago, dudacek said:

 New piece on Tage Thompson says he’s been skating regularly at HarbourCentre for a while now with a group of Sabres including Eichel, Okposo and Montour.

They are going to get a lot of company very soon.

By the Way, Tage has put on another 13 pounds since last training camp. He’s nearly 6’7” and a shade under 230. Fingers crossed his brain has grown with his body.

Does Okposo live here? Ik he has kids so I was just curious. 

Good for that group. 

[DarthEbriate]

Adding a 2C (and a good one at that in Staal) to this roster, plus Hall, and another year of experience from Ullmark --- we're on the cusp of the playoffs depending on the alignment (and able to compete in all permutations). I look at all the teams we could be grouped with for 48-56 games and...

Better than us: Toronto, NY Islanders, NY Rangers, Philadelphia, Tampa, Carolina, Washington

Let's go play hockey!: Columbus, Boston, Florida, Pittsburgh

Worse than us: Ottawa, Montreal, Detroit, Chicago, New Jersey, Minnesota, Nashville

 

[mjd1001]

Playoffs should be the expectation, and it is possible for the Sabres, but this new division will be tough..

As of last years shortened regular season, this is how many points behind the other teams the Sabres were:

Boston, 32 points behind.

Washington 22 points behind.

Philly, 21 points behind

Pitt, 18 points behind

Islanders, 12 points behind

Rangers, 11 points behind

Jersey, tied

To make the Playoffs, it looks like they are going to have to finish in the top 4. Assuming the Sabres make the playoffs, who are the 4 teams they beat out?