Sabres Sign 2020 First Round Pick Jack Quinn to ELC

[Pimlach]

4 hours ago, dudacek said:

Allen for me was really interesting in the sense that it showed how the scouting pendulum had shifted too far in the other direction.

20 years ago 6’4” 240 pounders who can run and throw the ball 80 yards got eagerly overdrafted all the time because scouts ignored the most important element: how well can he play?

With Allen, the overwhelming focus was on the latter to the point where people ignored how physically blessed he was.

Quinn is not as physically blessed as Allen, but where he is the same is that both have a history of being dismissed by the hype machine and have quietly gone about their business proving the hype machine wrong.

On top of physical tools, what the Bills liked about Allen was his work ethic and his willingness/desire to be coached.  
 

I don’t scout hockey but I was pleased to see Quinn’s coach include him on Canada’s team.   If Quinn has those quantities, close to what Allen has, he will be on the right track for the NHL.   Can Buffalo develop him is another question?  

[Thorner]

15 hours ago, dudacek said:

Allen for me was really interesting in the sense that it showed how the scouting pendulum had shifted too far in the other direction.

20 years ago 6’4” 240 pounders who can run and throw the ball 80 yards got eagerly overdrafted all the time because scouts ignored the most important element: how well can he play?

With Allen, the overwhelming focus was on the latter to the point where people ignored how physically blessed he was.

Quinn is not as physically blessed as Allen, but where he is the same is that both have a history of being dismissed by the hype machine and have quietly gone about their business proving the hype machine wrong.

Isn't Allen the exception that proves the rule? Generally guys with his pre-draft numbers don't amount to much. Credit to him - but it was always against the odds and he's proving to be exceptional. The predictive models aren't overbalanced just because one guy escapes the norm. 

I'm not sure I see it as a case of hype with Quinn really - and I'm not sure that he was "dismissed" - it was simply thought he may have been over drafted by a few spots. Unless Quinn ends up a perennial all-star, to me Allen will have exceeded the odds more. The thought was IIRC that his numbers didn't likely translate to him having even a long term career as a starter. The development he's undergone in such a short time makes him nothing short of an anomaly, to me. He's pretty special. 

To your point though, the Allen "anti hype" seemed to jump the shark, even beyond what the numbers may have dictated. 

Edited January 1, 2021 by Thorny

[dudacek]

9 hours ago, Thorny said:

Isn't Allen the exception that proves the rule? Generally guys with his pre-draft numbers don't amount to much. Credit to him - but it was always against the odds and he's proving to be exceptional. The predictive models aren't overbalanced just because one guy escapes the norm. 

I'm not sure I see it as a case of hype with Quinn really - and I'm not sure that he was "dismissed" - it was simply thought he may have been over drafted by a few spots. Unless Quinn ends up a perennial all-star, to me Allen will have exceeded the odds more. The thought was IIRC that his numbers didn't likely translate to him having even a long term career as a starter. The development he's undergone in such a short time makes him nothing short of an anomaly, to me. He's pretty special. 

To your point though, the Allen "anti hype" seemed to jump the shark, even beyond what the numbers may have dictated. 

To Allen, I’m not trying to say he’s any kind of proof the predictive models are wrong. More that he’s proof that faith in the models created a blind spot for a very vocal corner of football watchers that never would have existed 20 years ago. It’s definitely your last part and the bias trend that I find interesting.

Allen’s physical gifts are rare, so rare that 20 years ago that’s all the scouts would have seen, ignoring important signs in the process. A “market correction” was needed at the time because too much focus on physical attributes was causing mistakes to be made. Allen is evidence that correction has occurred, to the point that, in his case, there was too much focus on the modelling to the point that it was the potential of his physical gifts that got ignored. Allen should encourage people to be less dismissive of those that don’t fit their model.

You’re right, Quinn is not as physically gifted, nor analytically dismissible as Allen. He’s highly unlikely to be in the MVP conversation and no one was saying “I wouldn’t have picked him in the 3rd round”

Where he is similar is in his personal underdog story: he’s the opposite of a silver-spoon pedestaled athlete, he’s a driven kid who has a history of exceeding people’s expectations for him.

Edited January 1, 2021 by dudacek

[SwampD]

52 minutes ago, dudacek said:

To Allen, I’m not trying to say he’s any kind of proof the predictive models are wrong. More that he’s proof that faith in the models created a blind spot for a very vocal corner of football watchers that never would have existed 20 years ago. It’s definitely your last part and the bias trend that I find interesting.

Allen’s physical gifts are rare, so rare that 20 years ago that’s all the scouts would have seen, ignoring important signs in the process. A “market correction” was needed at the time because too much focus on physical attributes was causing mistakes to be made. Allen is evidence that correction has occurred, to the point that, in his case, there was too much focus on the modelling to the point that it was the potential of his physical gifts that got ignored. Allen should encourage people to be less dismissive of those that don’t fit their model.

You’re right, Quinn is not as physically gifted, nor analytically dismissible as Allen. He’s highly unlikely to be in the MVP conversation and no one was saying “I wouldn’t have picked him in the 3rd round”

Where he is similar is in his personal underdog story: he’s the opposite of a silver-spoon pedestaled athlete, he’s a driven kid who has a history of exceeding people’s expectations for him.

What I find annoying is that there are players that don’t pan out on both sides of the numbers all the time, but stats guys only seem to make a point of using the term outlier (or “exception to the rule”) when it comes to someone working out who wasn’t the “right” choice according to them.

Edited January 1, 2021 by SwampD

[Thorner]

5 hours ago, SwampD said:

What I find annoying is that there are players that don’t pan out on both sides of the numbers all the time, but stats guys only seem to make a point of using the term outlier (or “exception to the rule”) when it comes to someone working out who wasn’t the “right” choice according to them.

It's true, only stats guys are biased. The eye-test guys are totally objective. 

[LGR4GM]

Sounds like Quinn would be eligible for the AHL until the OHL resumes play. His contract would still slide a year. 

[LGR4GM]

Just going to leave this here...

 

Edited January 31, 2021 by LGR4GM

[GASabresIUFAN]

4 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Just going to leave this here...

 

That’s an awful piece of news. I feel terrible for the kid.  

[Derrico]

12 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Just going to leave this here...

 

Wow.  Hope he’s ok.