Sabres Sign 2020 First Round Pick Jack Quinn to ELC

[Thorner]

On 11/16/2020 at 6:55 PM, LGR4GM said:

Oh idk about a lot better. Hmm this is hard because I have more info on Cozens than Quinn but they exist on the same level or tier talent wise. I think right now Cozens is better but Quinn is an anomaly in so many ways. 

Id be curious to hear @chloewoj take

There's no way your draft analysis has the two as close. Not from my recollection of how you spoke of them, anyways. 

At this stage they aren't on the same tier - immediately after taking Cozens there was talk from those in the know that we may have a steal on our hands, top 5 draft talent by the numbers. His buzz has only grown. 

We aren't saying that about Quinn yet. If they are roughly the same tier we'd take roughly the same offer for both trade wise and I can't see that being the case currently. 

Quinn could get there, but right now on prospects lists there is, and should be, a gap. 

Edited November 19, 2020 by Thorny

[Cal Naughton Jr]

16 minutes ago, Thorny said:

I can agree with this, with the couple caveats being, it doesn't necessarily need to be THIS season, and the other being that it should be noted he's absolutely "on schedule" given his age what what we've seen him do at those ages. 

The desire to see proof is totally fair, I just don't think there should be any trace of angst, yet, imo. 

Not really any angst, but I’m holding off labeling him “generational” also. He’s still young but this will be his 3rd season. Time to start putting it together 

[Thorner]

On 11/16/2020 at 7:34 PM, Weave said:

*eyeroll

No, I won’t proclaim him the generational player that gets tossed around here, or even elite, until he actually is.

There's a fair bit of wisdom in this. 

I yakked and yakked about Eichel being at that level before he actually was, and it's not like when he got there I had added satisfaction for having talked about how he was going to do it. Mostly I was just happy he did it. And mostly I just feel the arguments beforehand were a waste of time when I could have just said, hey, he's pretty good right now let's see how much better he gets, and delighted in his success afterwards like we all did, anyways. 

I have a similar belief in young Rasmus but if we wanna say, hey, he's shown a lot for his age but let's hold off for the final analysis, that's fine by me. Of course, I don't begrudge anyone who wants to sing and dance now, if he does somehow bust out (I don't think that's even possible at this stage) that person will at least have had a period of enjoyment when it comes to said player. 

Edited November 19, 2020 by Thorny

[Curt]

Just now, Thorny said:

I don't think @Taro T ever said anything like that?

We cleared it up 👍🏼

[Thorner]

3 minutes ago, Curt said:

We cleared it up 👍🏼

Must have been something he said in another thread cause there was nothing in this one about him having that stance. 

Though I agree with you he was clearly their best d-man by the end of last season

Edited November 19, 2020 by Thorny

[dudacek]

20 minutes ago, Thorny said:

There's no way your draft analysis has the two as close. Not from my recollection of how you spoke of them, anyways. 

At this stage they aren't on the same tier - immediately after taking Cozens there was talk from those in the know that we may have a steal on our hands, top 5 draft talent by the numbers. His buzz has only grown. 

We aren't saying that about Quinn yet. If they are roughly the same tier we'd take roughly the same offer for both trade wise and I can't see that being the case currently. 

Quinn could get there, but right now on prospects lists there is, and should be, a gap. 

Are you basing this entirely on the rankings you've read (ie hype)?

Because their raw numbers don't support it, and what I've observed about your player preferences doesn't seem to make this a "type" preference.

They are both on the same tier: they SHOULD be legitimate top six forwards, they COULD be first-liners

Edited November 19, 2020 by dudacek

[Thorner]

On 11/17/2020 at 9:09 AM, Zamboni said:

I know some expect higher from Dahlin. But me personally, I would be happy if Dahlins ceiling was Hedman. If he never got any better than Hedman, I’d be very happy with Dahlins development. Anything north of that I’d be estatic.

If Quinn tops out in a few years and averages as a 45-55 point NHL forward, I’ll be very happy about that too. As long as his 200 ft. game is solid too.

Me too, of course. He's the best defenseman in the league!!

[Thorner]

11 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Are you basing this entirely on the rankings you've read (ie hype)?

Because their raw numbers don't support it, and what I've observed about your player preferences doesn't seem to make this a "type" preference.

They are both on the same tier: they SHOULD be legitimate top six forwards, they COULD be first-liners

I think we are all basing everything we say on what we've read (and seen), yes.

They aren't on the same tier. They just aren't - we've been through this - the hockey world at large does not see them as being on the same tier. Cozens was, on average, see as a good pick at 7, and a fair few said he should have gone higher. 

Quinn on average is seen as an OK pick at 8, but a reach by many. 

There isn't a prospect list in the world that has them close. You are welcome to evaluate them as you so choose but if we put any stock at all in what the hockey world at large thinks, there's no way in good conscience you can sit here and say you think the perception of the two after being drafted is close. 

It's not. 

The raw numbers ABSOLUTELY have Cozens on a higher tier right now: you don't get to be on the tier Cozens is cause you had ONE good pre draft season. MAYBE Quinn gets there, but sample size *matters* for these things. We have not seen enough high level output from Quinn to have him on the same tier, come on now. 

Edited November 20, 2020 by Thorny

[Thorner]

Cozens had 53 points in 57 games the season before his draft year. 

Quinn had 32 points in 61 games the season before his draft year. 

- - - 

Quinn had a big year this season. That's what KA is betting on. But placing him on the same tier as Cozens right now is projection based on one year, not reality. 

Cozens was also 16 for the majority of that season, and Quinn 17. 

AND Cozens did it at a harder position. 

Edited November 20, 2020 by Thorny

[LGR4GM]

1 hour ago, Thorny said:

Cozens had 53 points in 57 games the season before his draft year. 

Quinn had 32 points in 61 games the season before his draft year. 

- - - 

Quinn had a big year this season. That's what KA is betting on. But placing him on the same tier as Cozens right now is projection based on one year, not reality. 

Cozens was also 16 for the majority of that season, and Quinn 17. 

AND Cozens did it at a harder position. 

Quinn was also buried on his teams depth chart at 17. 

In their draft years, 

Quinn: 62 games 89pts = 1.44 ppg

Cozens: 68 games 84pts = 1.24 ppg

They exist on the same tier even though currently Cozens is better. Talent wise though, it's the same tier. Time will tell who is the better player but I would lean Cozens currently. 

We aren't talking who is the best nhl player we are talking level of talent. Their levels are similar even if Cozens is more highly touted.

[LGR4GM]

1 hour ago, Thorny said:

 

The raw numbers ABSOLUTELY have Cozens on a higher tier right now: you don't get to be on the tier Cozens is cause you had ONE good pre draft season. MAYBE Quinn gets there, but sample size *matters* for these things. We have not seen enough high level output from Quinn to have him on the same tier, come on now. 

The raw numbers don't support your conclusions. 

Cozens is about 7.5 months older and played more hockey than Quinn has to this point. Cozens hit 1.67ppg this season compared to Quinn's 1.44 so I think they do exist on a similar tier. Yes Cozens is better but the gap isn't massive and they have similar talent levels. 

Cozens is really good but Quinn has that potential too. 

[Thorner]

36 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Quinn was also buried on his teams depth chart at 17. 

In their draft years, 

Quinn: 62 games 89pts = 1.44 ppg

Cozens: 68 games 84pts = 1.24 ppg

They exist on the same tier even though currently Cozens is better. Talent wise though, it's the same tier. Time will tell who is the better player but I would lean Cozens currently. 

We aren't talking who is the best nhl player we are talking level of talent. Their levels are similar even if Cozens is more highly touted.

 But again, that's one season. Until Quinn demonstrates he can play at that level for a longer period of time, they are not on similar prospect tiers. 

[Thorner]

26 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

The raw numbers don't support your conclusions. 

Cozens is about 7.5 months older and played more hockey than Quinn has to this point. Cozens hit 1.67ppg this season compared to Quinn's 1.44 so I think they do exist on a similar tier. Yes Cozens is better but the gap isn't massive and they have similar talent levels. 

Cozens is really good but Quinn has that potential too. 

Of course they do. Quinn doesn't have the sample size of high level play that Cozens does. You keep talking about that one season. Yes, I get it, Quinn had one season equal to Cozens. The sample size is too small to say they are on the same tier as prospects. The fact that Quinn has only had one stand out year is precisely why he was ranked where he was heading into the draft. 

Do you think they would fetch the same in a trade right now? Or, one year ago at this time, when Cozens was listed as the best prospect outside the NHL, compared to Quinn right now?

Last year after Cozens was drafted, we got talk about how he was among the very best outside the NHL. After Quinn, we get quotes like the ones on the SS front page right now, from an Ontario Scout - "”I was shocked he went before Rossi,” an Ontario-based scout said. “He would have been good around, say, pick 11 or 12. But eight seemed like a stretch. But we know how good is he with the puck, it’s all about pushing his game to the limit now. This camp should help.”‘"

Edited November 20, 2020 by Thorny

[LGR4GM]

2 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Of course they do. Quinn doesn't have the sample size of high level play that Cozens does. You keep talking about that one season. Yes, I get it, Quinn had one season equal to Cozens. The sample size is too small to say they are on the same tier as prospects. The fact that Quinn has only had one stand out year is precisely why he was ranked where he was heading into the draft. 

Do you think they would fetch the same in a trade right now? Or, one year ago at this time, when Cozens was listed as the best prospect outside the NHL, compared to Quinn right now?

I'm not talking about trading them. I'm talking about their talent level. 

[Thorner]

6 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I'm not talking about trading them. I'm talking about their talent level. 

To me, that tells me they arguably have a similar ceiling (with Cozens being a centre he still has the edge, here, to me). But there's too much statistically documented high-level consistency from Cozens to have them as in the same tier as prospects. There's a lot more at play when it comes to prospects than merely ceiling. 

If they were both eligible to be drafted today, if they are in the same tier of prospect you'd be ok with taking Quinn with Cozens on the board?

Edited November 20, 2020 by Thorny

[dudacek]

2 hours ago, Thorny said:

I think we are all basing everything we say on what we've read (and seen), yes.

They aren't on the same tier. They just aren't - we've been through this - the hockey world at large does not see them as being on the same tier. Cozens was, on average, see as a good pick at 7, and a fair few said he should have gone higher. 

Quinn on average is seen as an OK pick at 8, but a reach by many. 

There isn't a prospect list in the world that has them close. You are welcome to evaluate them as you so choose but if we put any stock at all in what the hockey world at large thinks, there's no way in good conscience you can sit here and say you think the perception of the two after being drafted is close. 

It's not. 

The raw numbers ABSOLUTELY have Cozens on a higher tier right now: you don't get to be on the tier Cozens is cause you had ONE good pre draft season. MAYBE Quinn gets there, but sample size *matters* for these things. We have not seen enough high level output from Quinn to have him on the same tier, come on now. 

You're right in a way: the internet hype difference is largely a product of their years prior to their draft year. They formed a narrative going into their draft years that Cozens was largely able to maintain and Quinn was not quite able to shake among the pundits that didn't watch them all that much.

Quinn's numbers in his draft year are considerably better than Cozens numbers in his draft year. Those are facts, not something I am choosing to evaluate. They are almost as good as Cozens in his D+1 year. (I posted the NHLe up-thread)

You're equating narrative with talent. Is the hockey world at large right when they say Jack Eichel is a pouty baby who wants to be traded, or Rasmus Dahlin is disappointing? The internet hype machine might not have quite caught up yet, but on draft day, Jack Quinn (just like Cozens the year before) was a legitimate 5-10 for many, many NHL organizations. That was clearly reported by guys like Pronman and Button, regardless of whether they were agreeing or disagreeing.

[Thorner]

2 minutes ago, dudacek said:

You're right in a way: the internet hype difference is largely a product of their years prior to their draft year. They formed a narrative going into their draft years that Cozens was largely able to maintain and Quinn was not quite able to shake among the pundits that didn't watch them all that much.

Quinn's numbers in his draft year are considerably better than Cozens numbers in his draft year. Those are facts, not something I am choosing to evaluate. They are almost as good as Cozens in his D+1 year. (I posted the NHLe up-thread)

You're equating narrative with talent. Is the hockey world at large right when they say Jack Eichel is a pouty baby who wants to be traded, or Rasmus Dahlin is disappointing? The internet hype machine might not have quite caught up yet, but on draft day, Jack Quinn (just like Cozens the year before) was a legitimate 5-10 for many, many NHL organizations. That was clearly reported by guys like Pronman and Button, regardless of whether they were agreeing or disagreeing.

They are really not. Especially when you consider strength of team. And the fact that Quinn was older. 

[dudacek]

4 minutes ago, Thorny said:

To me, that tells me they arguably have a similar ceiling (with Cozens being a centre he still has the edge, here, to me). But there's too much statistically documented high-level consistency from Cozens to have them as in the same tier as prospects. There's a lot more at play when it comes to prospects than merely ceiling. 

If they were both eligible to be drafted today, if they are in the same tier of prospect you'd be ok with taking Quinn with Cozens on the board?

You're putting far too much weight into the two-year sample size of two growing boys.

Sometimes you're right. Sometimes that gets you Alex Nylander and Curtis Lazar.

[Thorner]

13 minutes ago, dudacek said:

You're right in a way: the internet hype difference is largely a product of their years prior to their draft year. They formed a narrative going into their draft years that Cozens was largely able to maintain and Quinn was not quite able to shake among the pundits that didn't watch them all that much.

Quinn's numbers in his draft year are considerably better than Cozens numbers in his draft year. Those are facts, not something I am choosing to evaluate. They are almost as good as Cozens in his D+1 year. (I posted the NHLe up-thread)

You're equating narrative with talent. Is the hockey world at large right when they say Jack Eichel is a pouty baby who wants to be traded, or Rasmus Dahlin is disappointing? The internet hype machine might not have quite caught up yet, but on draft day, Jack Quinn (just like Cozens the year before) was a legitimate 5-10 for many, many NHL organizations. That was clearly reported by guys like Pronman and Button, regardless of whether they were agreeing or disagreeing.

I really enjoy the fact you don't believe me to be capable of forming an opinion, that I am such a slave to spun narratives that I am incapable of seeing the truth about Quinn like you are. All the other teams that had him no where close to 8 are also wrong, right? Haha 

It can't be that I want to see more of him, that one season isn't enough for me to claim him to be the A prospect Cozens is, no, I've fallen easy prey to the established narratives.

Seriously though, I'm not equating narrative with talent. I'm placing value on sample size. Can you point to anything before this single season that points to Quinn being, not only worthy of being compared to Cozens, but worthy of 8?

I'm not dismissing anything - you are. You are dismissing everything that came before this one season. Without a larger base of success, they aren't close to being on the same tier, to me. 

Or to narrative. Whatever. 

Edited November 20, 2020 by Thorny

[dudacek]

4 minutes ago, Thorny said:

They are really not. Especially when you consider strength of team. And the fact that Quinn was older. 

Mitigate however it suits you, but they really are.

[LGR4GM]

1 minute ago, Thorny said:

To me, that tells me they may have a similar ceiling. But there's too much statistically documented high-level consistency from Cozens to have them as in the same tier as prospects. There's a lot more at play when it comes to prospects than merely ceiling. 

If they were both eligible to be drafted today, if they are in the same tier of prospect you'd be on with taking Quinn with Cozens on the board?

What are you talking about? I've stated at least twice that Cozens is currently better. 

We are talking talent level. Can Quinn do the things talent wise that Cozens can? Yes generally speaking. Will Quinn be as good in the NHL? No idea because idk what Cozens will be yet but looking at their comparables they project similar. 

[Thorner]

1 minute ago, dudacek said:

You're putting far too much weight into the two-year sample size of two growing boys.

Sometimes you're right. Sometimes that gets you Alex Nylander and Curtis Lazar.

Shall I put all the weight on one year, instead, like you?

1 minute ago, LGR4GM said:

What are you talking about? I've stated at least twice that Cozens is currently better. 

We are talking talent level. Can Quinn do the things talent wise that Cozens can? Yes generally speaking. Will Quinn be as good in the NHL? No idea because idk what Cozens will be yet but looking at their comparables they project similar. 

I believe I was talking prospect tier. 

[LGR4GM]

Just now, Thorny said:

I really enjoy the fact you don't believe me to be capable of forming an opinion, that I am such a slave to spun narratives that I am incapable of seeing the truth about Quinn like you are. All the other teams that had him no where close to 8 are also wrong, right? Haha

Seriously though, I'm not equating narrative with talent. I'm placing value on sample size. Can you point to anything before this single season that points to Quinn being, not only worthy of being compared to Cozens, but worthy of 8?

I'm not dismissing anything - you are. You are dismissing everything that came before this one season. Without a larger base of success, they aren't close to being on the same tier, to me. 

Or to narrative. Whatever. 

You don't know that. We have no idea what other teams thought. 

I'm Not dismissing what came b4. Quinn was buried on a stacked team. Cozens was his teams 2c i believe. Cozens has gotten more opportunities and playing time. Quinn has a different dev path. After this year we'll have more info on Quinn and sure, he could fall short but right now, today, they are on similar levels. 

5 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Shall I put all the weight on one year, instead, like you?

I believe I was talking prospect tier. 

Oh well I'm not. 

If we're talking prospect tier, yes Cozens was a tier above but I don't think that talent justified that. 

[Thorner]

7 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

You don't know that. We have no idea what other teams thought. 

I'm Not dismissing what came b4. Quinn was buried on a stacked team. Cozens was his teams 2c i believe. Cozens has gotten more opportunities and playing time. Quinn has a different dev path. After this year we'll have more info on Quinn and sure, he could fall short but right now, today, they are on similar levels. 

Oh well I'm not. 

If we're talking prospect tier, yes Cozens was a tier above but I don't think that talent justified that. 

Then we are not even disagreeing. 

It goes to what you said: it's not that we know Quinn *wouldn't* have produced more had he been given the chance, but the fact remains he didn't get that chance, he didn't demonstrably put together a stand-out year at that age, and there is value in certainty and we know Cozens *has* produced at a high level for a longer period, and that certainty is what elevates his status as a prospect. 

If the talent is more less equal, Quinn will have no problem continuing on this path, and with a larger sample size it'll be easier to put him on the same value/prospect tier.

I didn't elevate Jonathan Cheechoo to the league's elite goal scorers after he scored 50, once. It's a principle, not a narrative. 

Edited November 20, 2020 by Thorny

[klos1963]

12 hours ago, Curt said:

That’s fair.  Just the numbers:  Hughes was at a 64 pt pace, Dahlin at 55 pt pace.  I think it’s a reasonable expectation that Dahlin will be over 60 next season.  Also, due to the size deference, I think Dahlin has a significantly higher ceiling.

But Hughes was dominant in the playoffs. That was really impressive.  Let's hope.