Former Sabre Dominik Kahun Signs with Oilers 1 Year 975k

[dudacek]

Thompson was guaranteed a starting job due to his waiver status.

He might have failed, but he was starting the season in Buffalo.

[Zamboni]

What did the Sabres see/not see in Kahun to force him to go elsewhere? Seriously....  

Is this a legit logical “strike” against Adams?

Or a smart move?

It may not be popular, but I think it wasn’t terrible, knowing what we seem to know. Regarding his request for multi year and over 2 mil. ask.

 

[dudacek]

As far as Kahun goes, so ends the saga of the most over-discussed 6-game 2-goal scorer in Buffalo Sabres history.

[Taro T]

32 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

KA read the market right for Kahun, but wrong on Thompson., Girgensons and Eakin.  Given that Eric Haula is still un-signed  and what guys like Kahun, Larsson and Galchenyuk signed for, KA could have upgraded the bottom six for less money then he paid, and added higher quality depth.

He should have given Thompson a one year prove it deal for his QO.  He should have given Z two years at the market rate which would have been at about 1.6 or less, but overall he should have been more patient.    Same for Eakin.  

Had he not overpaid for these three, we’d might have signed a Galchenyuk or kept Kahun as well.  Then Thompson would have to earn his way on the ice instead of being guaranteed a starting job.

It's pretty obvious that Krueger wanted Girgensons back & that contract reflects that.  Thompson's deal MIGHT be an overpayment, but it can very easily be walked away from at essentially no cost & if he is even 2/3's the player they seem to think he'll become it's a good deal & could turn into flat out highway robbery.

From an analytics perspective, Eakin seems an overpayment.  We'll see if it actually turns out to be one.  The savings from bringing in Staal vs Johansson nearly nets out all those overpayment and getting all of Montour, Reinhart, Olofsson, AND Ullmark in at the low end of the ranges vpbandied about here absolutely net out into their favor.  Plus, they got the best UFA on the market for less than they're paying Skinner.  Those other 3 didn't cost the Sabres Galchenyk.

And, more importantly, for this discussion, having signed Kahun back when QO's had to go out might very well have cost them Hall as they'd've known they had some serious arbitration liabilities waiting for them.  IMHO, losing Kahun was well worth it for allowing the other dominoes to fall into place.

Won't agree that Thompson is definitely an overpayment, but even if he is, those 3 overpayment are massively overshadowed by at least 5 "underpayments" to guys that are more important to this roster.  (Including Montour in that as he will either be a relied on player or will be traded to fill a hole & that guy will be relied on.)

[JohnC]

8 hours ago, Andrew Amerk said:

Disagree. 
 

They look like idiots here. 

How so? The Sabres pegged his value correctly in this market. This was an excellent example of using a cost/benefit analysis to make a reasoned decision.   

[dudacek]

I don't think it's entirely fair to say the Sabres picked Thompson over Kahun as a 3rd liner winger, even if the math works after the fact. It was a more a byproduct dictated by the market after Kahun misread his value and rejected a Buffalo offer that was considerably more than what he ended up getting from the Oilers.

It's pretty clear the Sabres targeted 2C, 3C, top six wing and the PK this offseason as areas in need of improvement. Kahun started October as the top-six winger they were trying to upgrade. He might still be a Sabre if they had signed Toffoli or Davydov. He almost certainly would be a Sabre if they had signed no one.

They didn't see Kahun as a legitimate top six winger. I think they were fine with him on the 3rd line, but were also fine with Thompson and Cozens there as well if he turned down their offer and became a free agent. It was a Shaq Lawson type of calculation that happens in the NFL every year, but seems less common in hockey.

Kahun is collateral damage from the Hall signing.

Edited November 2, 2020 by dudacek

[Sabres Fan in NS]

12 hours ago, SwampD said:

Who?

It was like he was never a Sabre, eh.

 

[JohnC]

26 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I don't think it's entirely fair to say the Sabres picked Thompson over Kahun as a 3rd liner winger, even if the math works after the fact. It was a more a byproduct dictated by the market after Kahun misread his value and rejected a Buffalo offer that was considerably more than what he ended up getting from the Oilers.

It's pretty clear the Sabres targeted 2C, 3C, top six wing and the PK this offseason as areas in need of improvement. Kahun started October as the top-six winger they were trying to upgrade. He might still be a Sabre if they had signed Toffoli or Davydov. He almost certainly would be a Sabre if they had signed no one.

They didn't see Kahun as a legitimate top six winger. I think they were fine with him on the 3rd line, but were also fine with Thompson and Cozens there as well if he turned down their offer and became a free agent. It was a Shaq Lawson type of calculation that happens in the NFL every year, but seems less common in hockey.

Kahun is collateral damage from the Hall signing.

You make an excellent point in how you rate him and what the cost would be for that caliber of player. The contract he wanted was too high for his value. And the contract that he garnered from Edmonton demonstrates that it was valued properly by us.  I like Kahun a lot. I wished we could have kept him. But as you stated although he is a good third line winger  he is at best a fringe second line player. And as you pointed out the Sabres had players who were good options that can replace him. Your analogy of a Shaq Lawson calculation was a terrific analogy in that it stresses the notion of wanting to keep a player up to a point but not beyond that point.  

In the Covid era of extreme revenue losses there is going to be a lot more hard nosed cost/benefit analysis regarding players and contracts. It applies to all teams. I think so far the Sabres are doing an excellent job in handling the challenges associated with this tough environment. 

[Trettioåtta]

I think we come to regret this decision.

I expect him to be a consistent 50-60 point player, who is defensively responsible

[dudacek]

34 minutes ago, Trettioåtta said:

I think we come to regret this decision.

I expect him to be a consistent 50-60 point player, who is defensively responsible

Playing with McDavid and/or Draisaitl would put him in the best possible position to succeed.

[Thorner]

3 hours ago, dudacek said:

As far as Kahun goes, so ends the saga of the most over-discussed 6-game 2-goal scorer in Buffalo Sabres history.

It speaks to the dearth of good Botterill moves, to me. 

[Thorner]

3 hours ago, Taro T said:

It's pretty obvious that Krueger wanted Girgensons back & that contract reflects that.  Thompson's deal MIGHT be an overpayment, but it can very easily be walked away from at essentially no cost & if he is even 2/3's the player they seem to think he'll become it's a good deal & could turn into flat out highway robbery.

From an analytics perspective, Eakin seems an overpayment.  We'll see if it actually turns out to be one.  The savings from bringing in Staal vs Johansson nearly nets out all those overpayment and getting all of Montour, Reinhart, Olofsson, AND Ullmark in at the low end of the ranges vpbandied about here absolutely net out into their favor.  Plus, they got the best UFA on the market for less than they're paying Skinner.  Those other 3 didn't cost the Sabres Galchenyk.

And, more importantly, for this discussion, having signed Kahun back when QO's had to go out might very well have cost them Hall as they'd've known they had some serious arbitration liabilities waiting for them.  IMHO, losing Kahun was well worth it for allowing the other dominoes to fall into place.

Won't agree that Thompson is definitely an overpayment, but even if he is, those 3 overpayment are massively overshadowed by at least 5 "underpayments" to guys that are more important to this roster.  (Including Montour in that as he will either be a relied on player or will be traded to fill a hole & that guy will be relied on.)

Agree with the bold bit at the end, the first bold no shot at you but I'm tired of reading it. I get Kreuger wanted him back, to me that's not an ipso facto argument for the necessity to drastically (relatively) overpay. 

It doesn't really matter in the macro, but looking at the deal objectively it's nonsense lol. Doesn't matter, I'm glad to have him. I like Girgs and he's a good 4th liner. And the longest tenured Sabre. 

[Thorner]

3 hours ago, dudacek said:

I don't think it's entirely fair to say the Sabres picked Thompson over Kahun as a 3rd liner winger, even if the math works after the fact. It was a more a byproduct dictated by the market after Kahun misread his value and rejected a Buffalo offer that was considerably more than what he ended up getting from the Oilers.

It's pretty clear the Sabres targeted 2C, 3C, top six wing and the PK this offseason as areas in need of improvement. Kahun started October as the top-six winger they were trying to upgrade. He might still be a Sabre if they had signed Toffoli or Davydov. He almost certainly would be a Sabre if they had signed no one.

They didn't see Kahun as a legitimate top six winger. I think they were fine with him on the 3rd line, but were also fine with Thompson and Cozens there as well if he turned down their offer and became a free agent. It was a Shaq Lawson type of calculation that happens in the NFL every year, but seems less common in hockey.

Kahun is collateral damage from the Hall signing.

Botterill bringing in yet another player with arbitration rights may have left us in a situation where Kahun wouldn't have ended up a Sabre, regardless. With the prospect of arbitration, and after Kahun dug his feet in on his value prior to negotiations, it may just have been a case where the amount the Sabres would have had to pay to make Kahun not feel like he was selling out his own value argument was too extravagant for the Sabres to pay, on it's face. 

The Sabres had his market pegged accurately and Kahun badly misread. That's a difficult gap to bridge, regardless of space, when dealing with human beings. I suspect Botterill would have had a much greater inkling to think he and and his guy Kahun were right and the market was wrong, but in retrospect the writing was on the wall when Botts got canned. 

It's definitely a scenario with finer points that went completely over my head when originally watching the situation unfold in real time. My better-late-than-never reading of it now is it was loaded with inevitability. 

Edited November 2, 2020 by Thorny

[LGR4GM]

51 minutes ago, Trettioåtta said:

I think we come to regret this decision.

I expect him to be a consistent 50-60 point player, who is defensively responsible

He was scoring at a .55ppg this past year. Looks like 2.5pp/60. That rate per 60 is higher than Reinhart who did score 50 points. Seems within the realm of possibility if he gets the TOI although I think his points per game (PPG) is probably near what he will be. Really depends on his linemates. 

FTR: 0.6 points per game gets Kahun to 50 points so again, it is possible. 

[Huckleberry]

Read somewhere we actually offered him 1.4 same as thompson at start of free agency, but his agent misread the marked thinking he could get more elsewhere.

Just on HF boards a week ago, so don't think I can find it anymore.

[JohnC]

6 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

KA read the market right for Kahun, but wrong on Thompson., Girgensons and Eakin.  Given that Eric Haula is still un-signed  and what guys like Kahun, Larsson and Galchenyuk signed for, KA could have upgraded the bottom six for less money then he paid, and added higher quality depth.

He should have given Thompson a one year prove it deal for his QO.  He should have given Z two years at the market rate which would have been at about 1.6 or less, but overall he should have been more patient.    Same for Eakin.  

Had he not overpaid for these three, we’d might have signed a Galchenyuk or kept Kahun as well.  Then Thompson would have to earn his way on the ice instead of being guaranteed a starting job.

What you are saying about the contracts attached to the players in hindsight doesn't necessarily reflect the ability to sign the players in real time. As you noted the GM was right in reading the market for Kahun. On the other hand you are making the judgment that Thompson's contract was too rich for the player. That's not necessarily true. If he were given a one year contract and played well and scored beyond what your expectations are his next contract would be more than his current contract. The staff is making a judgment not only what he is as a player today but also what he projects to be for the next few years. Neither one of us at this point can prove whether the organization is right or wrong but these are the many judgments that going into assembling a roster in a cap system. Getting a perfect calibration between performance and the value of a contract for all the members of the roster is unattainable. No GM or organization is that prescient to get to that lofty standard. 

With respect to overpaying for Girgs I thought it was a little high but it is a reflection that this is a player that Krueger wanted. Krueger is in the process of reshaping the roster and changing its style of play. And as indicated by the size and term of the contract this is a player that Krueger values. My point is even considering that it was higher than most of us expected it wasn't significantly above his value to this team. And it should be noted his value is increased because of his added role of a member of the PK unit, a unit that the coach wants to upgrade.    

When free agency began the signing action in the league was fast and furious. Not all the players that were on our radar screen were willing to come here, or at least be their first or second or third preferences. When contacts are made between the organization and agents if there wasn't a quick decision then you had to move on to the next option so you wouldn't be left without options. 

When making an assessment of the contracts and individual value I think the fairest way to make a judgment is no to look at the contracts from an individual point of view but instead have a more overview approach. Taking that wider perspective I believe that this front office has done a good job. And that is not to say that more work can't be done before training camp starts. 

[IKnowPhysics]

6 hours ago, dudacek said:

As far as Kahun goes, so ends the saga of the most over-discussed 6-game 2-goal scorer in Buffalo Sabres history.

Finished 28th among all time Sabres with 0.33G/GP, between Sabre greats John Tucker and Travis Turnbull, but not nearly as productive as Steve Heinze (5G in 14GP) or Jim Jackson (2G in 5GP).

But an encouraging note: three Sabres that are more productive than Kahun are still active and under contract: Eichel (0.39G/GP), Skinner (0.38G/GP), and Oloffson (0.37G/GP).

[nfreeman]

1 hour ago, Huckleberry said:

Read somewhere we actually offered him 1.4 same as thompson at start of free agency, but his agent misread the marked thinking he could get more elsewhere.

Just on HF boards a week ago, so don't think I can find it anymore.

I was wondering about this -- there are a number of posts in this thread asserting that Kahun demanded $2MM+ (or some other amount) per year for multiple years, but I haven't seen anything reported as to what he was asking for.

Does anyone have a link?

[dudacek]

I thought Girgensons was a bit of an overpay in the normal market. It was a significant overpayment in a market where only an exclusive handful of UFAs to got deals over two years.

That said, if he gives us what he did last year in each of the three years, he will earn his money.

Thompson is only an overpay if he's not an NHL player. Adams spent an extra $300,000 this year for the chance he could save $3 million over the life of the deal because the organization loves what it has seen from Tage over the past 18 months. I make that same bet.

I wonder if they are tabling a similar offer to Casey? Unless his off-ice development has been quietly superb, I kinda doubt it.

[dudacek]

15 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

I was wondering about this -- there are a number of posts in this thread asserting that Kahun demanded $2MM+ (or some other amount) per year for multiple years, but I haven't seen anything reported as to what he was asking for.

Does anyone have a link?

I don't have a link, or any sense whether it is accurate, but I have seen that the Sabres offered a two-year deal at $1.4 AAV in multiple places.

Edited November 2, 2020 by dudacek

[Taro T]

6 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

I was wondering about this -- there are a number of posts in this thread asserting that Kahun demanded $2MM+ (or some other amount) per year for multiple years, but I haven't seen anything reported as to what he was asking for.

Does anyone have a link?

Can't speak for anyone else, but fully expect Kahun would've been looking at $2MM+ via arbitration, so can't see his ask being anything less.

At least ST, he got bad advice from his agent.  Remains to be seen how it works out for him LT.

[I-90 W]

[Taro T]

1 minute ago, I-90 W said:

Smart thing to say.  No need to burn any bridges.

Maybe he comes back someday.  Wouldn't be the 1st Sabre to do so.

[Curt]

I think that anyone who thinks Kahun would have signed a similar deal with Buffalo is mistaken.

This is the contract that he decided to take after weeks of waiting for anyone to make him a better offer that never came.

After taking a hard stance with the Sabres, and having them call his bluff, Kahun was unlikely to come back asking for a lesser offer.

With that said, I actually liked him and was hopeful that he could be a solid middle 6 contributor.  I wouldn’t be surprised if he does really well in Edmonton.

[thewookie1]

54 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I don't have a link, or any sense whether it is accurate, but I have seen that the Sabres offered a two-year deal at $1.4 AAV in multiple places.

I second this statement as I too remember reading about it. 

Id guess we feared that if he went to arbitration we would be handcuffed in going big fish hunting as Kahun’s arbitration number could of wildly varied anywhere from 1.8 to 3.5 mil a year. Perhaps more depending on similar player contracts. However I doubt he would of surpassed the 4.2 or 4.5mil needed to walk away. The nightmare scenario would be everything else still happening but Kahun getting 3.3 mil for 1 year and putting us over the cap.

I wouldn’t doubt Adams left his 1.4 mil deal on the table throughout but Kahun’s agent wasn’t about to come crawling back after screwing up. The Oilers have his good friend Draisital which gave the agent an easy target once salary concerns took the back seat to a roster spot.