VO trade value?

[GASabresIUFAN]

It looks like we'll probably have him re-signed for at least a season at around 3 mill.  However, is he really worth a long-term commitment?  If he isn't, what is his trade value?  Should KA considering moving him now to maximize value?

1) He finally made the NHL full time at 24 and is now 25.  This is old for a top player to make the NHL.  So the question is was last season what we can expect going forward or is there still upside?

2) He is currently our No.3 LW after the addition of Hall.  Are we really going to make a long-term commitment to the 3rd LW (assuming we re-sign Hall).  If he is moved to RW, how long until he is surpassed by either Cozens or Quinn? 1 yr, 2?

3) 59% of his goals (13/22) were on the PP.    He got off to a huge start and if I remember correctly his first 8 NHL goals were all on the PP.  In fact he had 6 goals in his first 7 games and only 14 in the remaining 47 last season.  He went long periods without any production as teams adjusted their PK to take him away. How much value does a PP specialist have long-term?

  

[Andrew Amerk]

2 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

It looks like we'll probably have him re-signed for at least a season at around 3 mill.  However, is he really worth a long-term commitment?  If he isn't, what is his trade value?  Should KA considering moving him now to maximize value?

1) He finally made the NHL full time at 24 and is now 25.  This is old for a top player to make the NHL.  So the question is was last season what we can expect going forward or is there still upside?

2) He is currently our No.3 LW after the addition of Hall.  Are we really going to make a long-term commitment to the 3rd LW (assuming we re-sign Hall).  If he is moved to RW, how long until he is surpassed by either Cozens or Quinn? 1 yr, 2?

3) 59% of his goals (13/22) were on the PP.    He got off to a huge start and if I remember correctly his first 8 NHL goals were all on the PP.  In fact he had 6 goals in his first 7 games and only 14 in the remaining 47 last season.  He went long periods without any production as teams adjusted their PK to take him away. How much value does a PP specialist have long-term?

  

Hateraid

[GASabresIUFAN]

Just now, Andrew Amerk said:

Hateraid

I'm not hating on VO.  I'm actually a fan.  However, can we afford to keep him and re-sign Dahlin, Hall and Reinhart after this season? If we can't, will we be better off trading him to get assets back?

[Cal Naughton Jr]

Yes we all of the sudden have a potential problem (on paper) of not being able to keep everyone. Have to wait til the season starts and gets going to evaluate. There will be a lot of decisions to be made at the trade deadline, but will we be buyers or sellers?

[Radar]

I do think if they give Hall a long term deal that it may mean VO or Reinhart get moved. Don't need to be hasty with decisions like that. Let's see how this year goes. For the record I hope Reinhart is here.

[Getpucksdeep]

Guy's shot is on par with Ovechkin's and he seems to be pretty smart about finding space for it.  I think he has big value, like a proven #1 goalie (that's not overpaid) or top 4 d, plus a high pick or two. Don't want to see it though.  

[Scottysabres]

Lock him up to 3 seasons at 3.5 or so a season, at least, I'm hoping those are the numbers.

[JohnC]

7 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I'm not hating on VO.  I'm actually a fan.  However, can we afford to keep him and re-sign Dahlin, Hall and Reinhart after this season? If we can't, will we be better off trading him to get assets back?

Maybe after another year or so when this roster gets settled with its best players locked in or not there will be a better basis to make a judgment on him. For the sake of an argument if he becomes a dependable 20-25 goal scorer then his value on the market will increase. And in another year or so the organization should have an understanding of what Quinn, their first round pick, is as a prospect and a potential replacement for him. 

I understand why people make the distinction between a player who mostly scores goals at ES and a player who scores a disproportionate amount of his goals on the PP. I'm not bothered by that distinction so much. If a shooter can score a total of thirty goals and more with half of them coming from the PP the team is still scoring goals. My point is that I am not devaluing goals scored on the PP. Goals are goals. A specialty player who scores goals is still scoring goals that go on the scoreboard. 

[LGR4GM]

8 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

It looks like we'll probably have him re-signed for at least a season at around 3 mill.  However, is he really worth a long-term commitment?  If he isn't, what is his trade value?  Should KA considering moving him now to maximize value?

1) He finally made the NHL full time at 24 and is now 25.  This is old for a top player to make the NHL.  So the question is was last season what we can expect going forward or is there still upside?

2) He is currently our No.3 LW after the addition of Hall.  Are we really going to make a long-term commitment to the 3rd LW (assuming we re-sign Hall).  If he is moved to RW, how long until he is surpassed by either Cozens or Quinn? 1 yr, 2?

3) 59% of his goals (13/22) were on the PP.    He got off to a huge start and if I remember correctly his first 8 NHL goals were all on the PP.  In fact he had 6 goals in his first 7 games and only 14 in the remaining 47 last season.  He went long periods without any production as teams adjusted their PK to take him away. How much value does a PP specialist have long-term?

  

Is there upside? Yes but it is minimal. He's the player he's going to be. 

Cozens isn't a rw for long and Quinn won't overtake him for at least 2 years. 

His PP skill and shot have value, I think though we should be concerned as he ages that other parts of his game will decline. That said I bet he has 2-4 years of prime production. I wouldn't trade him this year, but I am not yet sure I would protect him in the expansion draft either. 

[Taro T]

 

6 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Is there upside? Yes but it is minimal. He's the player he's going to be. 

Cozens isn't a rw for long and Quinn won't overtake him for at least 2 years. 

His PP skill and shot have value, I think though we should be concerned as he ages that other parts of his game will decline. That said I bet he has 2-4 years of prime production. I wouldn't trade him this year, but I am not yet sure I would protect him in the expansion draft either. 

Why would you not protect Olofsson?  Eichel, Skinner, Reinhart, Thompson, & Girgensons will definitely be protected unless Tage flames out horribly.  There is question over whether Okposo needs to be protected, my guess is when all is said & done he'll agree to not be protected at a minimum (nobody is taking him without a huge sweetener at his contract), so there are 2 more openings to protect 2 of Lazar, Mittelstadt,  Vic, Asplund, or other Ra-cha-cha player or mid-season pickup.  You're not protecting Olofsson out of that?

[kas23]

I disagree that he is only going to minimally improve. He just completed his rookie season. Outside of a sophomore slump, it really wouldn’t make much sense for a rookie not to improve in subsequent years. And maybe his “improvement” is maintaining his production outside of being on Jack’s line. 

[Curt]

22 minutes ago, Taro T said:

 

Why would you not protect Olofsson?  Eichel, Skinner, Reinhart, Thompson, & Girgensons will definitely be protected unless Tage flames out horribly.  There is question over whether Okposo needs to be protected, my guess is when all is said & done he'll agree to not be protected at a minimum (nobody is taking him without a huge sweetener at his contract), so there are 2 more openings to protect 2 of Lazar, Mittelstadt,  Vic, Asplund, or other Ra-cha-cha player or mid-season pickup.  You're not protecting Olofsson out of that?

Does Okposo get a choice in whether he is protected or not?  I didn’t think so.  He doesn’t have a NMC so I believe he can be left unprotected.  No?

[inkman]

6 minutes ago, kas23 said:

I disagree that he is only going to minimally improve. He just completed his rookie season. Outside of a sophomore slump, it really wouldn’t make much sense for a rookie not to improve in subsequent years. And maybe his “improvement” is maintaining his production outside of being on Jack’s line. 

He’s 25 

[LGR4GM]

24 minutes ago, Taro T said:

 

Why would you not protect Olofsson?  Eichel, Skinner, Reinhart, Thompson, & Girgensons will definitely be protected unless Tage flames out horribly.  There is question over whether Okposo needs to be protected, my guess is when all is said & done he'll agree to not be protected at a minimum (nobody is taking him without a huge sweetener at his contract), so there are 2 more openings to protect 2 of Lazar, Mittelstadt,  Vic, Asplund, or other Ra-cha-cha player or mid-season pickup.  You're not protecting Olofsson out of that?

Depends on which option we use and probably but again, I want to see him this year first. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

Seattle Expansion List so far

F - Eichel, Skinner, Reinhart, Thompson, VO, Mittelstadt - One slot open for re-signing Hall if possible or Eakin if he rebounds or Asplund 

D -  Dahlin Jokiharju & Risto

G - ?

Exposed list - Okposo, Miller, Johansson (G), Eakin, Girgensons, Lazar, Borgen, Asplund

UFAs - Hall, Staal, Reider, Montour, McCabe, Irwin

Not really much to on this carcass to choose from.  

Back on topic, I'd like to see Ka re-sign VO for two years.  This would actually give him the maximum flexibility toward determining his long-term value.

[LGR4GM]

47 minutes ago, kas23 said:

I disagree that he is only going to minimally improve. He just completed his rookie season. Outside of a sophomore slump, it really wouldn’t make much sense for a rookie not to improve in subsequent years. And maybe his “improvement” is maintaining his production outside of being on Jack’s line. 

He's 25. He has played 6 pro seasons, 4 SHL, 1 AHL, 1 NHL. Age curves for scoring tell us prime is 25-28. With the amount of experience he has and the age he is at, he is the player he is and any improvement will fall within a standard deviation. It is the same reason why I am not here saying Reinhart is suddenly about to become a 75pt player, it would be exceptional and not his norm. 

[Zamboni]

1 hour ago, kas23 said:

I disagree that he is only going to minimally improve. He just completed his rookie season. Outside of a sophomore slump, it really wouldn’t make much sense for a rookie not to improve in subsequent years. And maybe his “improvement” is maintaining his production outside of being on Jack’s line. 

He’s far far removed from being a rookie. VO is a developed finished product.

[SHAAAUGHT!!!]

2 hours ago, Scottysabres said:

Lock him up to 3 seasons at 3.5 or so a season, at least, I'm hoping those are the numbers.

Yeah, 3-4 years for 3-3.5MM AAV is what I'm expecting and for me the risk is low.  Snipers are always serviceable and teams will spend that type of money to bring in a guy to fix a PP or round out the 2nd PP line.  

 

28 minutes ago, Zamboni said:

He’s far far removed from being a rookie. VO is a developed finished product.

I think he still has some potential to increase his effectiveness by learning the nuances of the game at this level, but I agree he probably performed at 80-90% of his ceiling last season.  

[Zamboni]

13 minutes ago, SHAAAUGHT!!! said:

Yeah, 3-4 years for 3-3.5MM AAV is what I'm expecting and for me the risk is low.  Snipers are always serviceable and teams will spend that type of money to bring in a guy to fix a PP or round out the 2nd PP line.  

 

I think he still has some potential to increase his effectiveness by learning the nuances of the game at this level, but I agree he probably performed at 80-90% of his ceiling last season.  

Agreed…

That’s definitely not developing more… That’s just getting more opportunity and cashing in on it. 

[dudacek]

2 hours ago, JohnC said:

Maybe after another year or so when this roster gets settled with its best players locked in or not there will be a better basis to make a judgment on him. For the sake of an argument if he becomes a dependable 20-25 goal scorer then his value on the market will increase. And in another year or so the organization should have an understanding of what Quinn, their first round pick, is as a prospect and a potential replacement for him. 

I understand why people make the distinction between a player who mostly scores goals at ES and a player who scores a disproportionate amount of his goals on the PP. I'm not bothered by that distinction so much. If a shooter can score a total of thirty goals and more with half of them coming from the PP the team is still scoring goals. My point is that I am not devaluing goals scored on the PP. Goals are goals. A specialty player who scores goals is still scoring goals that go on the scoreboard. 

I'm so with you on the bolded. I read conversations dismissing PP goals like they are almost a negative at the same time as other conversations about fixing the PP.

Taylor Hall had 12 ES goals

Matt Duchene had 8, Alex Debrincat 8, Nick Foligno 8, Alex Radulov 8, Niederrieter 7, Suzuki 7, Kessel 5, Tuch 5, Athanasiou 8, Thomas 9, Trochek 9, Schmaltz 9, O'Reilly 9, Cam Atkinson 9, Mantha 10, Ryan Johansen 10, Teravainen 10, Horvat 10, Backstrom 10

Olofsson looks like he's in some good company with his 9 in 54 games.

[Broken Ankles]

His trade value is extremely low.  Not just for the reason mentioned, but more so for the current market conditions.  There are so many teams that will be forced to reduce cap, and so few teams to take that cap space on, that the value of the player moved between now and January 1st will far exceed the return.   Aka, a buyers market.  Perhaps his contract is more than you might want in a FL#3 LW role, but the Sabres desperately need more scoring in the middle six and on the Power Play.   They were still only middle of the pack in the PP last year.  They should be looking at the additions of Hall and Staal as an opportunity to move into the top 5, rather than treading water by losing a valuable asset on special teams.  I hope they keep the current trend and sign VO to a one year deal.  A prove it deal with flexibility for both sides.  

[JohnC]

7 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I'm so with you on the bolded. I read conversations dismissing PP goals like they are almost a negative at the same time as other conversations about fixing the PP.

Taylor Hall had 12 ES goals

Matt Duchene had 8, Alex Debrincat 8, Nick Foligno 8, Alex Radulov 8, Niederrieter 7, Suzuki 7, Kessel 5, Tuch 5, Athanasiou 8, Thomas 9, Trochek 9, Schmaltz 9, O'Reilly 9, Cam Atkinson 9, Mantha 10, Ryan Johansen 10, Teravainen 10, Horvat 10, Backstrom 10

Olofsson looks like he's in some good company with his 9 in 54 games.

If you consider the number of snipers we have (Olofsson, Jack, Hall Skinner) we have enough shooters to staff two potent PP units. Jack has the ability to attract penalties. If it happens near the end of the shift he would be able to go to the bench and catch his breath while the second unit starts off the PP allowing him to get back on the ice refreshed and with the other unit. There are enough good shooting parts to mix and match within the units. And if you factor in the defensemen who could shoot like Montour, Dahlin, Miller and Risto you have enough players to draw from to get the puck to the net. Stating the obvious: with more talent you have more options. 

[Thorner]

8 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Is there upside? Yes but it is minimal. He's the player he's going to be. 

Cozens isn't a rw for long and Quinn won't overtake him for at least 2 years. 

His PP skill and shot have value, I think though we should be concerned as he ages that other parts of his game will decline. That said I bet he has 2-4 years of prime production. I wouldn't trade him this year, but I am not yet sure I would protect him in the expansion draft either. 

Funnily enough, Reinhart is actually younger

[Thorner]

6 hours ago, dudacek said:

I'm so with you on the bolded. I read conversations dismissing PP goals like they are almost a negative at the same time as other conversations about fixing the PP.

Taylor Hall had 12 ES goals

Matt Duchene had 8, Alex Debrincat 8, Nick Foligno 8, Alex Radulov 8, Niederrieter 7, Suzuki 7, Kessel 5, Tuch 5, Athanasiou 8, Thomas 9, Trochek 9, Schmaltz 9, O'Reilly 9, Cam Atkinson 9, Mantha 10, Ryan Johansen 10, Teravainen 10, Horvat 10, Backstrom 10

Olofsson looks like he's in some good company with his 9 in 54 games.

Definitely shouldn't dismiss them, nor PP assists. The ability to score even strength points is more valuable, but I agree the PP stuff gets too easily tossed aside. 

Edited October 27, 2020 by Thorny

[Weave]

50 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Definitely shouldn't dismiss them, nor PP assists. The ability to score even strength points is more valuable, but I agree the PP stuff gets too easily tossed aside. 

Powerplay specialist is sort of a pseudo slur for a player that doesn't have much of a 200' game.  In that context I think it fits here.