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Predictions for arbitration: Ullmark, Reinhart, Olofsson


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Posted
49 minutes ago, Taro T said:

If he makes it to the hearing, it'll be a 1 year deal.  He elected arbitration, Sabres will elect term & won't ask for a 2 year deal as that takes him to UFA.

If they get a deal prior to the hearing, am expecting it to either be 1 year or 5+ years.

You give an excellent and understandable explanation but because I am so thickheaded it still leaves me a little confused. If the Sabres decide to give him a one year term what is his status after the year? 

Posted
1 minute ago, JohnC said:

You give an excellent and understandable explanation but because I am so thickheaded it still leaves me a little confused. If the Sabres decide to give him a one year term what is his status after the year? 

He will be an RFA again next off season if he signs a 1 year deal this off season.

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Posted
1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Korpisalo had 127 NHL games when he got his deal.  Ullmark has 97.

Jarry has 62 games but had a 2.43 w 921 last season.

Grubauer has 174 games and 3 seasons with 30+ starts and better number then Ullmark ever posted.

Grubauer was coming off seasons of 22, 24 and 35 games when he signed his deal.

Jarry, 26, 2 and 33

Korpisalo 18, 27, and 37

Ullmark 5, 37 and 34

They are all goalies of about the same vintage who had shown hints they could be a starter, but not proven it.

Posted
11 hours ago, dudacek said:

Grubauer was coming off seasons of 22, 24 and 35 games when he signed his deal.

Jarry, 26, 2 and 33

Korpisalo 18, 27, and 37

Ullmark 5, 37 and 34

They are all goalies of about the same vintage who had shown hints they could be a starter, but not proven it.

Aren't we giving NHL arbitrators a bit more credit than due?  From what I remember when it comes to middling players they usually just take the average of the two offers (I'm still  drinking coffee and waking up so my brain isn't ready look up examples yet).  I feel like even pulling this together goes above an beyond what their arbitrators actually do..

Posted (edited)
On 10/23/2020 at 7:05 PM, GASabresIUFAN said:

I figured on Ullmark 2 year 2.8 to 3 per season, VO at 3 for 1 year and 3.5 for 2.  Reinhart, I think Gallagher’s deal is close. Could be as low at 5.5 for a 1 year deal.

5.2 for a year is a hockey bargain.  I think we can expect (hope?) the other deals come in low also giving us some cap room. I'm not really surprised the Reinhart and his people kicked the can down the road a year.  If he breaks out this season, a significant possibility with the addition of Hall, then he'll have move leverage in a hopefully post pandemic world. 

Edited by GASabresIUFAN
Posted (edited)
14 hours ago, Taro T said:

If he makes it to the hearing, it'll be a 1 year deal.  He elected arbitration, Sabres will elect term & won't ask for a 2 year deal as that takes him to UFA.

If they get a deal prior to the hearing, am expecting it to either be 1 year or 5+ years.

You took a shot and hit the bulls eye. 🍺

Edited by JohnC
  • Thanks (+1) 1
Posted
20 hours ago, Thorny said:

He won't settle for that low considering the current median re: his number and the team's. 

Yup, and it was a weak sauce offer sheet. 

Especially considering Carolina's cap situation at the time. It simply served up the contract for Carolina to sign.

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Posted

Do we know if the Sabres chose one year or two with Linus?

If it is one he will become a UFA and we have no goalie under contract at the end of this season.

Posted
19 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Do we know if the Sabres chose one year or two with Linus?

If it is one he will become a UFA and we have no goalie under contract at the end of this season.

He only has 1 year of RFA status remaining, so his arbitrated contract will necessarily be a 1 year deal.   The team can't use arbitration to delay a player from becoming a UFA.

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Posted

2 down, one to go.

I thought we'd come in at about 13 mill for all three.  So far we are at 8 mill.  If we can get VO in at 3, that would put us in at 11 for the 3.  Overall that cap hit would be 78mill plus 1.5 for carryover bonus and a roster of 21 players (12F, 7F & 2G).

That leaves one roster spot to be earned by one of Asplund, Routsalainen, Cozens or Mittelstadt.  I wonder if that roster spot might also be determined about whether the contender has a place to play other then the Sabres.  For Example: What if the CHL is playing, and the AHL isn't?  In this case, I can see Asplund and Routsalainen being loaned to Europe, Cozens goes to the CHL and Mittelstadt makes the team.  

Posted

Once the first folks started signing before arbitration I said 11M upthread (thinking approximately 2.5, 3, 5.5). And now I'm thinking that's still easily in play. We can even make an additional move like a Kahun or Duclair to force Thompson to prove it in Rochester, then trade an asset in-season, if needed. (Or package something solid for a goalie of the playoff run!). This is a shrewd start for GM Sheevyn. But that should be expected after his 10-year phantom menace to overthrow the reigning chancellors.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Don't forget the 1.5 in bonuses

I think it already accounts for that. 

Edit - By my math it does

Edited by Thorny
Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, Thorny said:

I think it already accounts for that. 

I think your right.  If Capfriendly's numbers are right we are at only 78 mill with VO signed at 3.  

Forwards 48.8, D 18.525, G 5.35, BO&Over 2.279 = 74.954  Now add 3 for VO and .900 for one of Cozens/Mitts/Routsalainen/Whomever and the Sabres have a full roster at 78.8542.

That leaves plenty of room for Hutton (2.75) to AZ for Raanta (4.25).   Awesome! 

 

Edited by GASabresIUFAN
  • Like (+1) 1
Posted
10 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Here's a good benchmark for Olofsson. 

 

Bertuzzi, 25 years old, 21goals, 72 games

Olofsson, 25 years old, 20goals, 54 games

Basically should put a ceiling on Olofsson, IMO. Bertuzzi has put up those numbers multiple times.

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