Predictions for arbitration: Ullmark, Reinhart, Olofsson

[nfreeman]

48 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

 

 

42 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Just give him 2.75 and move on. 

But the arbitrator chooses one figure or the other, right?  i.e. he/she can't produce his/her own number?

[dudacek]

Just now, nfreeman said:

 

But the arbitrator chooses one figure or the other, right?  i.e. he/she can't produce his/her own number?

No changed that a while back. Arbitrator can pick any number in between.

 

[dudacek]

Sabres can argue Linus has proven nothing beyond being a good backup. He’s played 20, 37 and 34 games.

Linus can argue he emerged as a #1 last year.

Its an interesting case.

 

[dudacek]

Friedman was talking about how the Tristan Jarry contract screwed things up for the Sabres.

He’s a very good comparable who just got $3.5 over 3.

[JohnC]

6 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Sabres can argue Linus has proven nothing beyond being a good backup. He’s played 20, 37 and 34 games.

Linus can argue he emerged as a #1 last year.

Its an interesting case.

 

What Linus can't argue is that he has played many/enough games to indicate what his long term status is as a goaltender. So what is probably going to happen is that he will get an in-between number between $2.5----2.75 on a short term deal. 

The more interesting issue is the outcome of Reinhart in the hearings. I'm more interest in the term than the money. Will it be a lengthy term to lock him up (pre arbitration) or will this be a short term deal that will allow him to be an UFA in the next couple of years. 

[dudacek]

15 minutes ago, JohnC said:

What Linus can't argue is that he has played many/enough games to indicate what his long term status is as a goaltender. So what is probably going to happen is that he will get an in-between number between $2.5----2.75 on a short term deal. 

I think you’re a tad low.

Jarry $3.5, Grubauer $3.3, Korpisalo $2.8, Rittich $2.75, Georgiev $2.4 - none of those guys had done as much at the time of their contracts as Linus has.

Are there recent comparables I’m missing? Has to be RFAs with similar stats at a similar stage of their careers.

Edited October 24, 2020 by dudacek

[Curt]

12 hours ago, Let's Go B-Lo said:

My hypothesis isn't the GMs it's that owners won't sign off on them and they collude with each other to prevent them because they drive up salaries on young players. Honestly, there aren't too many other explanations that make the slightest bit of sense.

This doesn’t fully make sense to me, because player salary costs are hard capped anyway.  There is literally a set limit on how much players can make.  It young players make more, it means that old players will make less.

[thewookie1]

I’m guessing 1x2.95 as the result. Splits the difference 

[DarthEbriate]

46 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I think you’re a tad low.

Jarry $3.5, Grubauer $3.3, Korpisalo $2.8, Rittich $2.75, Georgiev $2.4 - none of those guys had done as much at the time of their contracts as Linus has.

Are there recent comparables I’m missing? Has to be RFAs with similar stats at a similar stage of their careers.

The Merzlikins contract earlier this year is what Linus has he eyes on. Only 33 GP, 2-yr extension at $4M.

[JohnC]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

I think you’re a tad low.

Jarry $3.5, Grubauer $3.3, Korpisalo $2.8, Rittich $2.75, Georgiev $2.4 - none of those guys had done as much at the time of their contracts as Linus has.

Are there recent comparables I’m missing? Has to be RFAs with similar stats at a similar stage of their careers.

Okay, let's go with $2.75----$3.00. Does that seem like it's more in the ballpark? 

[dudacek]

5 minutes ago, DarthEbriate said:

The Merzlikins contract earlier this year is what Linus has he eyes on. Only 33 GP, 2-yr extension at $4M.

Yeah, that was weird one that I don’t really understand.

Elvis signed his ELC  five years after he was drafted, didn’t play a single game on it, signed a one year-extension just two months later, then signed that deal 11 months after that.

Three contracts in 13 months? There was some kinda CBA end-around going on there

[Zamboni]

As the Sabres, Would you walk away from the arbitrator awarding one year contracts for ...

VO for 2.8 mil.

LU for 3.8 mil.

SR for 6.5 mil.

[mjd1001]

I guess its because the Sabres have been so bad for so long...but it seems like almost every topic that comes up now regarding the NHL and Sabres is just not fun at all.  Almost everything is something to worry about the team making a mistake, or getting screwed....an arbitration hearing putting them in a bad spot.......not much is fun with the team or the sport following it anymore.

Edited October 24, 2020 by mjd1001

[Shootica]

1 hour ago, Zamboni said:

As the Sabres, Would you walk away from the arbitrator awarding one year contracts for ...

VO for 2.8 mil.

LU for 3.8 mil.

SR for 6.5 mil.

Reinhart is the only one we'd be able to walk away from.  Teams cannot walk away from an arbitration award less than $4,538,958.

[Thorner]

17 hours ago, pi2000 said:

I'd bet dollars to donuts that both Ullmark and Olofsson sign before their hearings.  Ullmark in the $2.25-2.50m range, VO around $3.1-3.4m.   

Reinhart is a self-absorbed egomaniac who things he's worth north of $8m, haha,  j/k... but do I think he does end up in arbitration getting a one year deal around $5.25-5.75m.   

He won't settle for that low considering the current median re: his number and the team's. 

13 hours ago, dudacek said:

Montreal offer-sheeted Sebastian Aho last year. Carolina matched.

 

Yup, and it was a weak sauce offer sheet. 

[Thorner]

3 hours ago, dudacek said:

Friedman was talking about how the Tristan Jarry contract screwed things up for the Sabres.

He’s a very good comparable who just got $3.5 over 3.

 

2 hours ago, thewookie1 said:

I’m guessing 1x2.95 as the result. Splits the difference 

Bingo. They just split the difference lol 

NHL arbitration is meh. 

Edited October 24, 2020 by Thorny

[Gatorman0519]

20 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I figured on Ullmark 2 year 2.8 to 3 per season, VO at 3 for 1 year and 3.5 for 2.  Reinhart, I think Gallagher’s deal is close. Could be as low at 5.5 for a 1 year deal.

completely agree 

[nfreeman]

 

1 hour ago, Zamboni said:

As the Sabres, Would you walk away from the arbitrator awarding one year contracts for ...

VO for 2.8 mil.

LU for 3.8 mil.

SR for 6.5 mil.

I don't think the Sabres would walk away from any of those, and I wouldn't do so either, except that I might walk away from the Ullmark award if I had a deal put together for a different goalie.

 

1 hour ago, mjd1001 said:

I guess its because the Sabres have been so bad for so long...but it seems like almost every topic that comes up now regarding the NHL and Sabres is just not fun at all.  Almost everything is something to worry about the team making a mistake, or getting screwed....an arbitration hearing putting them in a bad spot.......not much is fun with the team of the sport following it anymore.

I am issuing an official SabreSpace guarantee that Hall-Eichel-XXX will be fun every shift, and that the team generally will be much more entertaining this year than last year or for that matter quite a few years.

 

[JohnC]

1 hour ago, mjd1001 said:

I guess its becaus[/b]e the Sabres have been so bad for so long...but it seems like almost every topic that comes up now regarding the NHL and Sabres is just not fun at all.  Almost everything is something to worry about the team making a mistake, or getting screwed....an arbitration hearing putting them in a bad spot.......not much is fun with the team or the sport following it anymore.

If the Taylor Hall topic wasn't fun for you then you must be dour by nature. What the Sabres are going through with contracts, free agency and arbitration is what all teams are going through. The business of sports is about the business of sports. 

note: I didn't intend to highlight this post. It periodically inexplicably happens to me 

Edited October 24, 2020 by JohnC

[mjd1001]

6 minutes ago, JohnC said:

If the Taylor Hall topic wasn't fun for you then you must be dour by nature. What the Sabres are going through with contracts, free agency and arbitration is what all teams are going through. The business of sports is about the business of sports. 

note: I didn't intend to highlight this post. It periodically inexplicably happens to me 

That is why I said Almost every topic, not every topic.

Yes, Hall and talking about his aquisition was good, but in the past I could come here and find a half dozen or more topics that were fun to talk about and positive about the future. Things are much worse now in that regard until they start showing progress on the ice that lasts.

[JohnC]

2 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

That is why I said Almost every topic, not every topic.

Yes, Hall and talking about his aquisition was good, but in the past I could come here and find a half dozen or more topics that were fun to talk about and positive about the future. Things are much worse now in that regard until they start showing progress on the ice that lasts.

This offseason has been one of the most intriguing offseasons in a long time. There is a new GM with a second year HC who seems to be very influential in the roster reshuffling and remaking of the roster. What's notable is not the quantity of transactions but that the few consequential acquisitions that were made in Staal, Hall and Eakins deals reflect not only individual players but an alteration in style of play. And I expect more deals to be made this offseason. I just speak for myself but this offseason has been a fun offseason for me. 

[PerreaultForever]

9 hours ago, nfreeman said:

Well, each of the 3 Sabres going to arbitration is a pretty important player, and it would only be a 1-year commitment.  I would be very surprised if the Sabres walked away from any of them.  

I doubt they'd walk away, absolutely, but if the number is too high they might want to test the trade market. 

[PerreaultForever]

9 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Just give him 2.75 and move on. 

Maybe, but certainly not much more if even that. Georgiev got 2.425 from the Rangers and their stats and situations are pretty similar. 

[Taro T]

8 hours ago, JohnC said:

What Linus can't argue is that he has played many/enough games to indicate what his long term status is as a goaltender. So what is probably going to happen is that he will get an in-between number between $2.5----2.75 on a short term deal. 

The more interesting issue is the outcome of Reinhart in the hearings. I'm more interest in the term than the money. Will it be a lengthy term to lock him up (pre arbitration) or will this be a short term deal that will allow him to be an UFA in the next couple of years.

If he makes it to the hearing, it'll be a 1 year deal.  He elected arbitration, Sabres will elect term & won't ask for a 2 year deal as that takes him to UFA.

If they get a deal prior to the hearing, am expecting it to either be 1 year or 5+ years.

Edited October 25, 2020 by Taro T

[GASabresIUFAN]

Korpisalo had 127 NHL games when he got his deal.  Ullmark has 97.

Jarry has 62 games but had a 2.43 w 921 last season.

Grubauer has 174 games and 3 seasons with 30+ starts and better number then Ullmark ever posted.