2020-'21 Sabres Prospects

[GASabresIUFAN]

22 minutes ago, rakish said:

Jonas Johansson was sent to Germany to play in DEL.

Good.  He needs the work 

[Rasmus_]

On 10/24/2020 at 3:59 PM, SwampD said:

Yep. He’s going to be good.

A much more polished and promising prospect than one we drafted.  

[LGR4GM]

On 10/24/2020 at 6:59 PM, SwampD said:

Yep. He’s going to be good.

 

13 hours ago, TheCerebral1 said:

A much more polished and promising prospect than one we drafted.  

Polished, yes

Promising... would really depend on how you define "promising" but Quinn has the higher ceiling compared to Lundell. We haven't seen Quinn yet this season but we are seeing Lundell after roughly 8 months off. We can't really compare 8 months later Lundell to 8 months earlier Quinn in this case. We will see what Quinn looks like when the OHL opens. 

[Thorner]

5 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

 

Polished, yes

Promising... would really depend on how you define "promising" but Quinn has the higher ceiling compared to Lundell. We haven't seen Quinn yet this season but we are seeing Lundell after roughly 8 months off. We can't really compare 8 months later Lundell to 8 months earlier Quinn in this case. We will see what Quinn looks like when the OHL opens. 

I actually think this is unknown at this time. 

Agree it's hard to compare right now - even when Quinn's year starts, we'll have to take a massive grain of salt to his numbers being an overaged player in the OHL, nevermind a league that may have no hitting. Especially compared the the league Lundell is in. 

[dudacek]

14 minutes ago, Thorny said:

I actually think this is unknown at this time. 

Agree it's hard to compare right now - even when Quinn's year starts, we'll have to take a massive grain of salt to his numbers being an overaged player in the OHL, nevermind a league that may have no hitting. Especially compared the the league Lundell is in. 

Yep. Five years to get a sense, 10 to have some certainty.

'Bust' Sam Bennett is the 14th most productive player from the 2014 draft. 'Smart pick' Alex Tuch is 19th

'Disappointing' Sam Reinhart is the 6th. 'Steals' Larkin, Nylander and Ehlers are 3rd, 5th and 7th — 11 points separate Reinhart, Ehlers and Larkin, with super-steal Brayden Point right there in the same mix.

I suspect the narratives will be different for some of these guys five years from now, just like the stories of 2010 picks Mikael Granlund and Mark Stone today are quite different  than they were five years ago

[LGR4GM]

18 hours ago, dudacek said:

Yep. Five years to get a sense, 10 to have some certainty.

'Bust' Sam Bennett is the 14th most productive player from the 2014 draft. 'Smart pick' Alex Tuch is 19th

'Disappointing' Sam Reinhart is the 6th. 'Steals' Larkin, Nylander and Ehlers are 3rd, 5th and 7th — 11 points separate Reinhart, Ehlers and Larkin, with super-steal Brayden Point right there in the same mix.

I suspect the narratives will be different for some of these guys five years from now, just like the stories of 2010 picks Mikael Granlund and Mark Stone today are quite different  than they were five years ago

You need to account for games played in any of these scenarios you are laying out. Tuch was clearly the better pick if you are only worried about producing. 

Alex Tuch: 200 games played, 106pts or 0.53ppg

Sam Bennett: 364 games played, 128pts or 0.35ppg. 

Your argument falls apart when you do that. Ehlers, Larkin and Reinhart are in the same ballpark at least games wise, although Ehlers is 40 games less than Sam. Point is 100 games less with more points. 

Edited November 3, 2020 by LGR4GM

[dudacek]

2 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

You need to account for games played in any of these scenarios you are laying out. Tuch was clearly the better pick if you are only worried about producing. 

Alex Tuch: 200 games played, 106pts or 0.53ppg

Sam Bennett: 364 games played, 128pts or 0.35ppg. 

Your argument falls apart when you do that. Ehlers, Larkin and Reinhart are in the same ballpark at least games wise, although Ehlers is 40 games less than Sam. Point is 100 games less with more points. 

My point is not that Bennett is a better pick than Tuch. It's that "better' is a moving target and perception is about "what have you done for me lately?"

Tuch is perceived to be significantly better right now mostly because he put up one 52 point season. But unless you define "better" strictly as the highest high, he hasn't had a better career than Bennett.

Take that season away and you have two third-liners who put up 8 and 9 goals respectively this year.

How will that ranking change this year if Tuch puts up a disappointing 23-point year as the Knights drop off and Bennett goes 18/18/36, playing a big role in a Calgary rebound?

How will the Reinhart/Ehlers perception change if Reino puts up a career 72-point year and Ehlers slumps to 43?

Edited November 3, 2020 by dudacek

[LGR4GM]

14 minutes ago, dudacek said:

My point is not that Bennett is a better pick than Tuch. It's that "better' is a moving target and perception is about "what have you done for me lately?"

Tuch is perceived to be significantly better right now mostly because he put up one 52 point season. But unless you define "better" strictly as the highest high, he hasn't had a better career than Bennett.

Take that season away and you have two third-liners who put up 8 and 9 goals respectively this year.

How will that ranking change this year if Tuch puts up a disappointing 23-point year as the Knights drop off and Bennett goes 18/18/36, playing a big role in a Calgary rebound?

How will the Reinhart/Ehlers perception change if Reino puts up a career 72-point year and Ehlers slumps to 43?

He absolutely has had a better career than Bennett to date. 

The other scenarios you list are possible but what you are describing is recency bias. It is why I went back and rewatched all of Quinn's stuff and Rossi's. It is a major reason why when ppl post Lundell stuff from this season and lament Quinn I am hesitant. Recency bias is a major factor and that is why we should look at players over time. 

[dudacek]

14 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

He absolutely has had a better career than Bennett to date. 

The other scenarios you list are possible but what you are describing is recency bias. It is why I went back and rewatched all of Quinn's stuff and Rossi's. It is a major reason why when ppl post Lundell stuff from this season and lament Quinn I am hesitant. Recency bias is a major factor and that is why we should look at players over time. 

Only if you put heavy weight to a player's best season.

If their NHL careers stopped right now and you look back at the numbers 10 years from now, who had a better career?

The guy who played 364 games or the guy who played 200?

The guy who scored 124 points or the guy who scored 106?

The guy who played 6 seasons or the guy who played 3?

Edited November 3, 2020 by dudacek

[LGR4GM]

44 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Only if you put heavy weight to a player's best season.

If their NHL careers stopped right now and you look back at the numbers 10 years from now, who had a better career?

The guy who played 364 games or the guy who played 200?

The guy who scored 124 points or the guy who scored 106?

The guy who played 6 seasons or the guy who played 3?

The guy who played 200 games and had 106pts is better than the guy who played 364 games and had 124 points. This conversation is kinda insane. Bennett has been vastly outproduced by Tuch, just because Bennett has played an extra 164 games doesn't make it some accomplishment and they won't both suddenly stop playing this year. 

Edited November 3, 2020 by LGR4GM

[LGR4GM]

Craig Rivet played 923 games, Rasmus Dahlin is the better player. 

Your original point was that Bennett the bust was 14th and Tuch the good pick was 19th in scoring. You did not account for games played and that makes your argument flawed and IMPO wrong. 

[Thorner]

3 hours ago, dudacek said:

My point is not that Bennett is a better pick than Tuch. It's that "better' is a moving target and perception is about "what have you done for me lately?"

Tuch is perceived to be significantly better right now mostly because he put up one 52 point season. But unless you define "better" strictly as the highest high, he hasn't had a better career than Bennett.

Take that season away and you have two third-liners who put up 8 and 9 goals respectively this year.

How will that ranking change this year if Tuch puts up a disappointing 23-point year as the Knights drop off and Bennett goes 18/18/36, playing a big role in a Calgary rebound?

How will the Reinhart/Ehlers perception change if Reino puts up a career 72-point year and Ehlers slumps to 43?

I think Reinhart is as good or better than Ehlers right now, and I like Ehlers a fair bit. 

- - - 

On another note, I think people are losing the plot a bit (and I like Chad and he's a very smart dude):

 

IMO this is what happens when people cling too hard to winning an argument. Ruotsalainen is not a better prospect than Quinn. Before anyone asks why Jokijarju was here, it was 23 and under with a games limit and he was under the games limit. 

Edited November 3, 2020 by Thorny

[dudacek]

2 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

The guy who played 200 games and had 106pts is better than the guy who played 364 games and had 124 points. This conversation is kinda insane. Bennett has been vastly outproduced by Tuch, just because Bennett has played an extra 164 games doesn't make it some accomplishment and they won't both suddenly stop playing this year. 

 

2 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Craig Rivet played 923 games, Rasmus Dahlin is the better player. 

Your original point was that Bennett the bust was 14th and Tuch the good pick was 19th in scoring. You did not account for games played and that makes your argument flawed and IMPO wrong. 

I'll try this again because I am clearly doing a poor job explaining myself.

I'm not arguing who is the better player; I am arguing that perception of a player shifts over time.

The better player doesn't always have the better career

I think most long-time Sabres watchers would agree that peak Richard Martin was a better player than peak Dave Andreychuk.

Dave is in the hall of fame. Rico is not. That is because Rico got hurt and his career was essentially over after 10 years, while Dave kept playing and putting up good numbers and ended up 15th on the all-time goal list.

What if Alex Tuch has an Al Kotalik type career? Al never approached his 62-point season any other year and ended up getting 284 points in 540 NHL games.

What if Sam Bennett has a Kris Draper type career? Draper broke 40 points just once in his career and lags way behind Al in the point per game category, but he also played more than 1100 games and won cups.

He clearly had a better career than Kotalik, no matter the points per game numbers, or who looked like the better player six years after they were drafted.

Right now I agree that Tuch is a better player. All I'm saying is the story is far from told.

Edited November 3, 2020 by dudacek

[Weave]

You explained it perfectly the first time. 

[LGR4GM]

20 hours ago, dudacek said:

 

I'll try this again because I am clearly doing a poor job explaining myself.

I'm not arguing who is the better player; I am arguing that perception of a player shifts over time.

The better player doesn't always have the better career

I think most long-time Sabres watchers would agree that peak Richard Martin was a better player than peak Dave Andreychuk.

Dave is in the hall of fame. Rico is not. That is because Rico got hurt and his career was essentially over after 10 years, while Dave kept playing and putting up good numbers and ended up 15th on the all-time goal list.

What if Alex Tuch has an Al Kotalik type career? Al never approached his 62-point season any other year and ended up getting 284 points in 540 NHL games.

What if Sam Bennett has a Kris Draper type career? Draper broke 40 points just once in his career and lags way behind Al in the point per game category, but he also played more than 1100 games and won cups.

He clearly had a better career than Kotalik, no matter the points per game numbers, or who looked like the better player six years after they were drafted.

Right now I agree that Tuch is a better player. All I'm saying is the story is far from told.

 

16 hours ago, Weave said:

You explained it perfectly the first time. 

He used a poor stat to make his argument which is and continues to be my issue. "'Bust' Sam Bennett is the 14th most productive player from the 2014 draft. 'Smart pick' Alex Tuch is 19th" 

This is a terrible use of numbers and it continues to be my major issue with your argument. I explained why. I explained it perfectly fine the first time. 

[MakeSabresGrr8Again]

49 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

 

He used a poor stat to make his argument which is and continues to be my issue. "'Bust' Sam Bennett is the 14th most productive player from the 2014 draft. 'Smart pick' Alex Tuch is 19th" 

This is a terrible use of numbers and it continues to be my major issue with your argument. I explained why. I explained it perfectly fine the first time. 

https://youtu.be/L2xRF7UxC2o

[GASabresIUFAN]

I finally got a chance to look at Chad D's prospect list and rankings.  My general thought was "really"!  Mitts at 10, Joker still on the list, Routsalainen at 2.  The college D, Samuelsson and Johnson at 13 &14.   Also no Murray?

Chad's list -  (my rank) my thoughts

1 Cozens -  (1) Agreed 

2 Routsalainen - (6) A bit to high given he has never played in NA.  

3. Jokiharju - (NR) - A full time NHL last season.  Not really a prospect anymore

4. UPL - (5) - Had a hard time adjusting to the pro game, but so have many others before him.

5. Quinn - (2) - maybe close to NHL ready now and has the hands to be in the NHL. 5 is to low.

6. JJP (7) - Like the player and the skill set but needs to prove it against men and then in NA before being a Sabre

7. Laaksonen - (11) - mediocre season knocked him down my rankings behind the college guys

8 Thompson - (4) - 3 year deal shows real confidence in him from management.  Who are Chad or I to argue with that. 8 is to low.

9. Bryson - (12) - Nice first year in the AHL, but needs to be a force this year to get a real NHL shot.  Don't mind the ranking, but I see less upside in him them Johnson or Samuelsson.

10. Mittelstadt - (3) - No one on this list other then Cozens and maybe Quinn is more talented.  10 is way to low.

11. Borgen - (16) - Defense first and physical game, a need for the team, gives him a chance to be an NHLer, but is he good enough to win a job now, because this is his best opportunity.  11 in much to high for a guy who NHL chances are dwindling 

12. Portillo - (14) - Another developing goalie with good potential.  I have him behind the college D because of how long it takes goalies to develop,

13. Samuelsson - (8) - Borgen and Samuelsson have similar games except Matt is younger (and is a RHD) and is more talented in all facets of the game.  Samuelsson also has more upside.  No way Borgen should be ranked ahead of him other then in likelihood to get NHL time next season.

14. Johnson - (9) -  I can see the argument for ranking Bryson ahead of him, as Bryson is much closer to the NHL, but Johnson is only 19 and his skating is world class.  

15. Pekar - (13) - I'm ok with this ranking, but I like Pekar's game and we need a pest who can add some O.

16. Asplund - (10) - I may have Asplund to high, but he is fighting for an NHL job now and I like his ability to be a utility forward.  I also think he has a higher skill level the guys like Pekar who Chad ranks ahead of him.

17. Cronholm - (NR) - Not sure what this guy has done to even be ranked

18. Costantini - (NR) - I like ex- Jr Sabres as much as the next guy, but there are better players in our system

19.  Davidsson - (18) - Recent developments make this former 2nd rd pick look increasingly suspect.

20. Huglen - (19) - Was drafted for his offensive talent, but injury last year really cost him

NR. Murray - (15) - Scoring winger has an excellent first AHL season and earned a NHL 2 way deal this off-season.  The team thinks he has a legit future, not sure why Chad doesn't

NR. Weissbach - (17) - Had solid seasons for Wis, but seemed to lose the coach's trust late last year.  Solid skater and playmaker, it will be interesting to see if KA will give him a look see in the AHL

NR. Rousek - (20) - older draftee who looks like a solid player.  I can see him developing into an NHL depth forward, but who knows until he plays in NA.  

Edited November 4, 2020 by GASabresIUFAN

[Curt]

29 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I finally got a chance to look at Chad D's prospect list and rankings.  My general thought was "really"!  Mitts at 10, Joker still on the list, Routsalainen at 2.  The college D, Samuelsson and Johnson at 13 &14.   Also no Murray?

It’s not a “prospect list” though.  It’s players 23 and under with an NHL games played limit of .....150 or something like that.

[GASabresIUFAN]

1 minute ago, Curt said:

It’s not a “prospect list” though.  It’s players 23 and under with an NHL games played limit of .....150 or something like that.

That's fair, sort of.  If Joker is included he should be No. 1 since he is an established and effective NHL player and likely top 4 defender this coming season.  No one else on the list has proven they can consistently compete at the top level.

[dudacek]

The idea of Quinn being behind anyone other than Cozens — including Jokiharju — is ridiculous to me.

It reeks of someone bending over backwards to make a point that the Sabres drafted the wrong guy this year.

Also, am I wrong in reading Chad's list as being highly influenced by charts?

[Rasmus_]

On 11/2/2020 at 11:13 AM, LGR4GM said:

 

Polished, yes

Promising... would really depend on how you define "promising" but Quinn has the higher ceiling compared to Lundell. We haven't seen Quinn yet this season but we are seeing Lundell after roughly 8 months off. We can't really compare 8 months later Lundell to 8 months earlier Quinn in this case. We will see what Quinn looks like when the OHL opens. 

To me Lundell and Rossi more are pests on both sides of the puck.  In addition, analytically speaking they are elite in comparison to Quinn. I like Quinn, but not over at least 3-4 players.  IMO. 

[LGR4GM]

5 hours ago, TheCerebral1 said:

To me Lundell and Rossi more are pests on both sides of the puck.  In addition, analytically speaking they are elite in comparison to Quinn. I like Quinn, but not over at least 3-4 players.  IMO. 

I like Quinn over Lundell but I would have picked Rossi.

[Crusader1969]

On 11/3/2020 at 2:21 PM, Thorny said:

I think Reinhart is as good or better than Ehlers right now, and I like Ehlers a fair bit. 

- - - 

On another note, I think people are losing the plot a bit (and I like Chad and he's a very smart dude):

 

IMO this is what happens when people cling too hard to winning an argument. Ruotsalainen is not a better prospect than Quinn. Before anyone asks why Jokijarju was here, it was 23 and under with a games limit and he was under the games limit. 

Smart? are you sure about that.

He's the guy that said the Sabres should sign both Erod and Sheary to long term deals. 

[Zamboni]

Chad, like a ton of sports writers, have bias and major blind spots when it comes to ranking players. Their opinion boils down to being no better than the average fan who didn’t pursue  “writing” as a profession. Then there’s the even lower bottom of the barrel writers who have a journalism degree, and their ego gets in the way with everything that they do and write ... like Harrington as an example. 

[JohnC]

On 11/4/2020 at 5:20 PM, dudacek said:

The idea of Quinn being behind anyone other than Cozens — including Jokiharju — is ridiculous to me.

It reeks of someone bending over backwards to make a point that the Sabres drafted the wrong guy this year.

Also, am I wrong in reading Chad's list as being highly influenced by charts?

I think you are jumping the gun in not only rating Quinn ahead of Joki but believing that it is ridiculous to do so. Joki will soon be a top 1 or 2 pairing player with more upside to draw from. Right now as a youngster he is one of the more consistent and smartest defensemen on the ice. I agree with you that Quinn was a good pick and in the not too distant future will be a more likely second line winger but the possibility of being a first line winger. But let's not get ahead ourselves.