2020-2021 Season in jeopardy?

[I-90 W]

With the season continuing to be pushed back, and speculation that there could be no fans, border crossing issues etc, how do you think this will play out?

Would it be January 1st- July 23rd?

Bubble cities?

Let's discuss..

Edited October 18, 2020 by I-90 W

[steveoath]

It'll be compressed - 45-50 regular season games is what I am guessing. Possibly series based to cut down on travel. And as per the slip from the knights owner(I think) Canada will have its own division to deal with border issues. 

[Radar]

I give it 50\50 chance they will play. Really wonder how this effects contracts ect. No fans revenue tickets, concessions ect. It's a financial puzzle to say the least. From what I understand the players get season pay if they play at all. Seems owners would not want that.

Edited October 18, 2020 by Radar

[steveoath]

if the season does not go ahead, do contracts "move on" a year regardless? Or would Dahlin/Joki still be on ELC for 20/21 and thus exempt from expansion draft.

[LabattBlue]

1 hour ago, Radar said:

I give it 50\50 chance they will play. Really wonder how this effects contracts ect. No fans revenue tickets, concessions ect. It's a financial puzzle to say the least. From what I understand the players get season pay if they play at all. Seems owners would not want that.

There is NO WAY the owners are going to give players their full salary for a season that will only be 60 or so games, AND attendance will either be severely limited or not allowed at all. 
 

Not going to happen. 

[tom webster]

The one saving grace for the NHL is that their next TV deals are expected to substantially increase despite abysmal ratings. 
My guess is there will be a season starting in January, it may begin with bubble cities and it will definitely conclude before the Olympics begins in July.

[stenbaro]

I doubt it happens, the owners rely on attendance for a majority of the revenue. It is simple business, without revenue how can they keep putting out a product?

 

[kas23]

44 minutes ago, steveoath said:

if the season does not go ahead, do contracts "move on" a year regardless? Or would Dahlin/Joki still be on ELC for 20/21 and thus exempt from expansion draft.

And we’ll be paying Hall $8M for 45-60 games? If they plan on shortening the season and wasting contracts, I’d rather they waited 1-2 more months for the vaccine to start. 

[Zamboni]

IMO ... The 2020-2021 season isn’t in jeopardy of not happening.
Chance of it being ...

Shortened? Yes. 
Adjusted? Yes.
Different in a few ways? Yes.

But not in jeopardy of not happening at all. UNLESS the pandemic gets much worse and profound throughout both countries.

[Taro T]

54 minutes ago, kas23 said:

And we’ll be paying Hall $8M for 45-60 games? If they plan on shortening the season and wasting contracts, I’d rather they waited 1-2 more months for the vaccine to start. 

Well, actually the expectation is they'll pay him $6.4MM as escrow will be 20% and nobody expects the players to get any of that.

[Cal Naughton Jr]

There’s going to be a season. Hell even the WNBA had a season. I have no idea what it will look like but they are going to play

[LGR4GM]

11 hours ago, I-90 W said:

With the season continuing to be pushed back, and speculation that there could be no fans, border crossing issues etc, how do you think this will play out?

Would it be January 1st- July 23rd?

Bubble cities?

Let's discuss..

Ask me again in 3 weeks. 

[SHAAAUGHT!!!]

If the NHL is the only major sport that doesn't figure out how to have a season it will expose them as poorly run and inept.  It would reduce their leverage in negotiations for the tv deal, and even the teams would be valued less (or at minimum their value would grow at a slower rate).   Long-term they would lose hundreds millions more cancelling the season and not paying players than abbreviating it. 

Quantifying the $ impact of a cancelled season would be difficult, but I think there is only a 10% chance it's cancelled outright so I'm not sure its even worth getting into.  For me, the only aspects of the NHL that makes this decision is different than other sports is the shear number of teams outside of the US, and high percentage of non-citizens that participate in the league.  

Edited October 18, 2020 by SHAAAUGHT!!!

[Rasmus_]

I would assume it will be similar to the baseball season where it is a compressed situation.  I'm good as long as it is continued. 

Edited October 18, 2020 by TheCerebral1

[tom webster]

1 hour ago, Taro T said:

Well, actually the expectation is they'll pay him $6.4MM as escrow will be 20% and nobody expects the players to get any of that.

I thought the return to play agreement called for 25% escrow and a 10% rollback meaning they would only pay around $5.4 million. To clarify, I think the 10% is not a rollback, but a deferral as they would have to pay that back the following year.

Edited October 18, 2020 by tom webster

[Brawndo]

I think they start in bubbles or it least in empty buildings, with the goal of eventually having fans in the stands. 
 

Reduced schedules with a minimum of 48 games. 
 

Back to back games in the same city with the same teams playing to compress the schedule and cut down on travel expenses. 
 

Expanded use of testing such as Saliva Direct, which gives COVID Results in about 15 minutes.  Test results are available via app. Fans wanting to attend games would need to have a negative test less than 24 hours prior to the game starting. Fan capacity would be 50% or less of course. 

Also I’m not sure  about the logistics of something like this particularly given existing TV Contracts, but could teams switch to a paid package for games this year? With teams and their TV Partners splitting the revenue.  Games on NBC would still be free, but to see the remaining games for the Sabres Fans would have to paid the same cost as Center Ice or NHL TV. 
 

 

[Radar]

4 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

I think they start in bubbles or it least in empty buildings, with the goal of eventually having fans in the stands. 
 

Reduced schedules with a minimum of 48 games. 
 

Back to back games in the same city with the same teams playing to compress the schedule and cut down on travel expenses. 
 

Expanded use of testing such as Saliva Direct, which gives COVID Results in about 15 minutes.  Test results are available via app. Fans wanting to attend games would need to have a negative test less than 24 hours prior to the game starting. Fan capacity would be 50% or less of course. 

Also I’m not sure  about the logistics of something like this particularly given existing TV Contracts, but could teams switch to a paid package for games this year? With teams and their TV Partners splitting the revenue.  Games on NBC would still be free, but to see the remaining games for the Sabres Fans would have to paid the same cost as Center Ice or NHL TV. 
 

 

If no fans in arena I could see where the league may negotiate some agreement for a pay for view. They I would think need to get revenue for not having ticket and concession revenue.

[Taro T]

17 minutes ago, tom webster said:

I thought the return to play agreement called for 25% escrow and a 10% rollback meaning they would only pay around $5.4 million. To clarify, I think the 10% is not a rollback, but a deferral as they would have to pay that back the following year.

Escrow this upcoming season is 20%.

The deferred payments will eventually be made, so didn't adjust his salary by that.

[Doohicksie]

Europe is generally in better shape with respect to the virus.... what about moving all the teams to Europe for a year?  Kind of an out-of-the-box idea, but basically set up a Euro "sister city" with each NHL team, let them use that city as their base for one season.  Assuming some level of attendance is possible at the arenas, it could provide a big marketing and money making opportunity on the other side of the pond.  Setting something like that up might take more than 2 or 3 months but if they could, it would give them fan revenue from Europe, TV revenue from North America, and establish fandoms in Europe which could increase revenue going forward.  To keep the links in future seasons, maybe have every team do a "home and home" with another NHL team at their respective sister cities in future seasons.

Edited October 18, 2020 by Doohickie

[Curt]

53 minutes ago, Doohickie said:

Europe is generally in better shape with respect to the virus.... what about moving all the teams to Europe for a year?  Kind of an out-of-the-box idea, but basically set up a Euro "sister city" with each NHL team, let them use that city as their base for one season.  Assuming some level of attendance is possible at the arenas, it could provide a big marketing and money making opportunity on the other side of the pond.  Setting something like that up might take more than 2 or 3 months but if they could, it would give them fan revenue from Europe, TV revenue from North America, and establish fandoms in Europe which could increase revenue going forward.  To keep the links in future seasons, maybe have every team do a "home and home" with another NHL team at their respective sister cities in future seasons.

That would be very difficult to set up, as you mention, and may not be feasible right now.  It’s one heck of an idea though!  I like it.

[Eleven]

1 hour ago, Doohickie said:

Europe is generally in better shape with respect to the virus.... what about moving all the teams to Europe for a year?  Kind of an out-of-the-box idea, but basically set up a Euro "sister city" with each NHL team, let them use that city as their base for one season.  Assuming some level of attendance is possible at the arenas, it could provide a big marketing and money making opportunity on the other side of the pond.  Setting something like that up might take more than 2 or 3 months but if they could, it would give them fan revenue from Europe, TV revenue from North America, and establish fandoms in Europe which could increase revenue going forward.  To keep the links in future seasons, maybe have every team do a "home and home" with another NHL team at their respective sister cities in future seasons.

From what I read on BBC last week, Europe is not in better shape.  Here's an example:  https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-54522279

[Doohicksie]

I think the difference there is they are having only isolated outbreaks in most countries, and those outbreaks are still less than American "business as usual."

 

[steveoath]

49 minutes ago, Doohickie said:

Europe is generally in better shape with respect to the virus.... what about moving all the teams to Europe for a year?  Kind of an out-of-the-box idea, but basically set up a Euro "sister city" with each NHL team, let them use that city as their base for one season.  Assuming some level of attendance is possible at the arenas, it could provide a big marketing and money making opportunity on the other side of the pond.  Setting something like that up might take more than 2 or 3 months but if they could, it would give them fan revenue from Europe, TV revenue from North America, and establish fandoms in Europe which could increase revenue going forward.  To keep the links in future seasons, maybe have every team do a "home and home" with another NHL team at their respective sister cities in future seasons.

Depends in how the Covid situation pans out in Europe. Countries have no travel lists which are changing rapidly in response to escalating cases. 

Its a nice idea though, and the Sweden games last season proved there is an appetite.  

[JohnC]

1 hour ago, Doohickie said:

Europe is generally in better shape with respect to the virus.... what about moving all the teams to Europe for a year? Kind of an out-of-the-box idea, but basically set up a Euro "sister city" with each NHL team, let them use that city as their base for one season.  Assuming some level of attendance is possible at the arenas, it could provide a big marketing and money making opportunity on the other side of the pond.  Setting something like that up might take more than 2 or 3 months but if they could, it would give them fan revenue from Europe, TV revenue from North America, and establish fandoms in Europe which could increase revenue going forward.  To keep the links in future seasons, maybe have every team do a "home and home" with another NHL team at their respective sister cities in future seasons.

Throughout Europe it is seeing a resurgence. And although the morbidity rate is down in the US the infections are increasing in almost all states but a few. The virus is going to be a big factor next year on how the game/schedule is changed. Presently,  Canada will not allow border crossings without quarantining. (It shouldn't be forgotten that in baseball the Toronto Blue Jays played in Buffalo instead of having to cross the border.)  What I see happening is that conferences will be altered to limit travel and there will be a separate Canadian conference. As it stands the league and the players don't know how the season is going to play out. Needless to say there is a lot to work out. 

[sweetlou]

I can see a shortened 48 game schedule. Games will be mini series of divisional back to back games.  Only fans in attendance will be season ticket holders from 19-20 season with seats adjusted to practice social distancing in stands.  Mask would have to be worn at all times when in the arena. 

A one year realignment of divisions to make an all canadian division.  

 

Atlantic-

Carolina, Tampa, Florida, Boston, Buffalo, Detroit,  Columbus

Metro-

NYR, NYI, NJ, Pitt, Phi, Washington

Central-

Dallas, Chicago, Nashville, Colorado, Minnesota, St Louis

Pacific-

Anaheim, San Jose, LA, Arizona, Vegas, Colorado

Canadian-

Montreal, Ottowa, Toronto, Winnipeg, Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton

 

Playoffs would consist of a 16 team tournament similar to NCAA basketball tournament, based on points during regular season.

All teams ranked 1-16 and placed in bracket.

First round is best of five series and then best of seven.