Seattle Expansion Thread

[Taro T]

4 hours ago, triumph_communes said:

We have this last season of cap hell left before the light comes.  There is no cap banking going on with the LTIR and we will not be able to acquire a high cap rental at the deadline this year.  Please, set your expectations lower now.  A pick for a rental winger isn't possible.  If the trade is not cap neutral, it won't happen.

 

You can simply argue that Botterill saw the analytics behind the last two seasons and knew there was no reason to make a move that didn't heavily favor long-term implications.  And I would've agreed with that.  No one winger was salvaging last season.  Montour, which he did acquire, barely made a dent.

 

Five straight years of 2nd rounders for useless rentals, and misses on 1st rounders, is what got us into this mess in the first place.  Let's not hastily run back there.

Nobody (especially me) is saying to go out and mortgage the future for a playoff run today.  (Hopefully the response to GA further clarifies where I was headed in the post you replied to.)

But, if the price to get these guys most likely get into the playoffs this year rather than next is a player at a position there is abundance (and abundance in the pipeline) and a 2nd rounder, considering how much quality youth is in the system, I'm fine with that. 

And as long as Bogosian is still out, this season's cap is only negligibly factoring into any realistic moves as there will almost definitely be somebody else that ends up out for 10+ games before this season is out.  So Bogosian could roll onto LTIR if needed and then the next guy in the infirmary would be able to supplant him should he be ready to go at some point this season.

It's probably all moot any way as another D injury could keep Botterill from going that way even if he is inclined.  (Which I'm not convinced he is.  Again, my concern is that this is viewed by upper management as a throwaway year by his time line and if the team out performs, great; and if it doesn't, it wasn't expected to anyhow.)

[GASabresIUFAN]

With the expansion draft at the end of next year and the emergence of Joker and VO, the Sabres will have some interesting decisions to make as things stand right now.

Do they go 8/1 or 7/3/1?

If they go 8/1 I’d assume that would be to insure they protected Dahlin, Joker, Montour and Risto.  That leaves only 4 slots for forwards - Jack, Skinner, VO and Samson.  That leaves Mittelstadt, Thompson and Asplund available to be drafted.  Not ideal, but depending on how those three play next year could go along way toward determining whether or not we go that route.  Also the size and length or Montour’s new contract may influence the decision making, especially if the give him a NTC.

I think the more likely route is 7/3/1.  The forwards would be Jack, Skinner, Samson, VO, Mitts, Thompson and Asplund.  The Defense would be Dahlin, Joker and either Montour or Risto.  

Personally, I wouldn’t mind moving Mitts for an exempt forward.  Something like a Mitts for a 2018 forward like a Hayton, Farabee or Wahlstrom.  This would allow us to go with 4/4/1 and not really worry about expansion.  This also allows us to essentially keep our talent pool mostly intact.

The other option if Jbot goes 7/3/1, that likely means either Risto or Montour get moved this summer to avoid losing one or them for nothing.  This would not be my first choice unless moving one of them soon gets us a 2C for the next few years.

Obviously the 3rd option is to go 7/3/1 and pay the ransom to Seattle to not draft Montour or Risto, such as Miller and a prospect instead. 

Key Exempt players: Cozens, UPL, and  Ruotsalainen.

Edited January 8, 2020 by GASabresIUFAN

[matter2003]

Sabres should REALLY do whatever is necessary to have Seattle take some of these terrible contracts they have so they can stop being hamstrung with the cap.  Make deals and give up picks or whatever you need to so we can get rid of contracts like Okposo, etc.  These deals are KILLING our ability to really get better because we have to only go after the lower end FA's.

[GASabresIUFAN]

1 minute ago, matter2003 said:

Sabres should REALLY do whatever is necessary to have Seattle take some of these terrible contracts they have so they can stop being hamstrung with the cap.  Make deals and give up picks or whatever you need to so we can get rid of contracts like Okposo, etc.  These deals are KILLING our ability to really get better because we have to only go after the lower end FA's.

Only bad contract left after this season is KO’s.

[Brawndo]

With Alex Mandrycky on Seattle’s Staff I’m not so sure they would have to be worried about Risto being selected. 
He is playing better, but he still is not an analytics darling. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

8 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

With Alex Mandrycky on Seattle’s Staff I’m not so sure they would have to be worried about Risto being selected. 
He is playing better, but he still is not an analytics darling. 

Maybe not, but will Jbot take the risk? If your Seattle don’t you still threaten to take him to force us to give up assets to insure they don’t? 

I still think Jbot’s best bet right now if a similar move to the Joker/Nylander deal.  Find a team that maybe a little sour on an exempt 1st rd forward from 2018 and trade them Mitts for that player.  

[Taro T]

9 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

With Alex Mandrycky on Seattle’s Staff I’m not so sure they would have to be worried about Risto being selected. 
He is playing better, but he still is not an analytics darling. 

Yeah.  A lot can change in a year, but were they to have to choose now who to protect Dahlin and Jokiharju would be the 2 locks and Montour would likely be the 3rd relying on Ristolainen's lack of good analytics to scare Seattle off.

Wouldn't be at all surprised to see Pilut be the player the Sabres lose.  Maybe Miller ends up one of those rare players selected by multiple teams in expansion drafts.

The only thing for certain is the landscape will be different 16 or so months from now.

[GASabresIUFAN]

34 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Yeah.  A lot can change in a year, but were they to have to choose now who to protect Dahlin and Jokiharju would be the 2 locks and Montour would likely be the 3rd relying on Ristolainen's lack of good analytics to scare Seattle off.

Wouldn't be at all surprised to see Pilut be the player the Sabres lose.  Maybe Miller ends up one of those rare players selected by multiple teams in expansion drafts.

The only thing for certain is the landscape will be different 16 or so months from now.

No question.  Jbot could trade Risto to someone for a 2C tomorrow and this recalculates again.  

[DarthEbriate]

It is of no concern. Soon the Seattle Team will be named and our young Prospect will be one of them. Our work here is just beginning, my friends. Go out to the Expansion Draft Simulators, but await another offseason of transactions before we finalize our protections and trade offers.

[shrader]

1 hour ago, DarthEbriate said:

It is of no concern. Soon the Seattle Team will be named and our young Prospect will be one of them. Our work here is just beginning, my friends. Go out to the Expansion Draft Simulators, but await another offseason of transactions before we finalize our protections and trade offers.

Seattle Team is one of those dark horse candidate names that I could get behind.  Just for fun, I'd make the logo a giant "I".

[DarthEbriate]

8 hours ago, shrader said:

Seattle Team is one of those dark horse candidate names that I could get behind.  Just for fun, I'd make the logo a giant "I".

They've been sitting on their name announcement for so long (no one wants it to be the Metropolitans although it has historical significance and a Cup; and Kraken is cute but yelling "Release the Kraken" is going to get old fast. Although I would love to see Harryhausen stop-motion footage on the giant screens between faceoffs.) They should just go with Hockey Club Seattle and join in the Sounders love and get on with it.

[North Buffalo]

Seattle Grinders makes sense too

[Taro T]

Since the pricks moved their start date back a year meaning the Sabres go from losing as a worst case Hutton to losing a useful (though not absolutely critical) player such as Pilut or the like; Scheisskopfen works. (Sorry, couldn't find the Ezsett on this keypad.)

[LGR4GM]

8 hours ago, DarthEbriate said:

They've been sitting on their name announcement for so long (no one wants it to be the Metropolitans although it has historical significance and a Cup; and Kraken is cute but yelling "Release the Kraken" is going to get old fast. Although I would love to see Harryhausen stop-motion footage on the giant screens between faceoffs.) They should just go with Hockey Club Seattle and join in the Sounders love and get on with it.

All the yesses. 

 

[shrader]

1 hour ago, Taro T said:

Since the pricks moved their start date back a year meaning the Sabres go from losing as a worst case Hutton to losing a useful (though not absolutely critical) player such as Pilut or the like; Scheisskopfen works. (Sorry, couldn't find the Ezsett on this keypad.)

I can't count the number of times I've heard this complaint.  Oh wait, yes I can.

[triumph_communes]

If Thompson and Mittelstadt don't improve a whole lot, I think they go 8/1, and they still end up losing a defenseman:

Dahlin, Joker, Montour and Risto

Leaves Pilut, Miller, and McCabe if re-signed exposed

Or they protect Pilut and expose a rental Risto if contract negotiations aren't going anywhere.  Or even if they re-sign Risto, they expose him anyway

 

If Thompson and/or Mittelstadt breaks out, then they expose Risto and Pilut and will lose one.  And that is what all our draft pick defenseman are for to replace them.

 

I think the only mistake that can be made is pretending any of these players is worth forfeiting a 1st round pick to protect.  6th rounder-- okay who cares, but Vegas was getting 1st rounders to protect good players and in every case that was a huge mistake.

[GASabresIUFAN]

Jbot isn’t the type to give up a 1st to protect someone.  He gave up Carrier to protect Ullmark, which is turning out to be a very good decision.

As I said up thread there are moves to make to avoid this issue all together and over the next season and a half I’m sure Jbot will navigate through it.  The most likely answer is trading Montour or Risto to help acquire a 2c.

[shrader]

3 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Jbot isn’t the type to give up a 1st to protect someone.  He gave up Carrier to protect Ullmark, which is turning out to be a very good decision.

Minor nitpick: They gave a 6th round pick to Vegas in exchange for them taking Carrier.

[GASabresIUFAN]

3 minutes ago, shrader said:

Minor nitpick: They gave a 6th round pick to Vegas in exchange for them taking Carrier.

That was done to protect Ullmark

[shrader]

3 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

That was done to protect Ullmark

Right, but they did have to give up more than just Carrier.  A minor detail but they were also one of the teams freely handing away draft picks, granted a low value 6th rounder.

But on that note, I'm still of the thought that they were conned out of that pick.  Vegas was never taking Ullmark.  McPhee was able to pull that same con job on several teams.  We'll have to wait and see the quality of Ron Francis' poker face.

[Taro T]

8 minutes ago, shrader said:

Minor nitpick: They gave a 6th round pick to Vegas in exchange for them taking Carrier.

 

4 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

That was done to protect Ullmark

It was.  Ennis and Carrier were left exposed to keep them from taking Ullmark.  But the 6th was the sweetener to ensure it was Carrier and not Ennis selected which would've blown up the Scandella deal.

[GASabresIUFAN]

2 minutes ago, shrader said:

Right, but they did have to give up more than just Carrier.  A minor detail but they were also one of the teams freely handing away draft picks, granted a low value 6th rounder.

But on that note, I'm still of the thought that they were conned out of that pick.  Vegas was never taking Ullmark.  McPhee was able to pull that same con job on several teams.  We'll have to wait and see the quality of Ron Francis' poker face.

But what is a 6th rd pick?  Easier to pay the small ransom then lose a player you want.  Giving up a 6th is essentially giving up the 11% chance that the player drafted makes the NHL at some distant point in the future.  To a GM trying to make a team competitive in the near future, a 6th has almost zero value.

For example it took 7th rd pick Olofsson 5 full seasons to become an NHLer after being drafted.  
It took Ullmark, a 6th rd pick in 2012, 6 years to make the NHL full time.

[Brawndo]

On 1/8/2020 at 12:56 PM, GASabresIUFAN said:

Maybe not, but will Jbot take the risk? If your Seattle don’t you still threaten to take him to force us to give up assets to insure they don’t? 

I still think Jbot’s best bet right now if a similar move to the Joker/Nylander deal.  Find a team that maybe a little sour on an exempt 1st rd forward from 2018 and trade them Mitts for that player.  

Risto will also be entering the final year of his existing contract and will be an UFA after that, so the team is only giving up one year of control in the unlikely event that Seattle would select him. 
 

Montour and Jokiharju will have new deals at that point, and I doubt Botterill will want to give Risto the deal he is looking for. 
 

 

Edited January 9, 2020 by Brawndo

[GASabresIUFAN]

3 hours ago, Brawndo said:

Risto will also be entering the final year of his existing contract and will be an UFA after that, so the team is only giving up one year of control in the unlikely event that Seattle would select him. 
 

Montour and Jokiharju will have new deals at that point, and I doubt Botterill will want to give Risto the deal he is looking for. 
 

 

Fair point, but much depends on Risto’s play and the development of other players.  Regardless Risto will have good value in the trade market.  No way Jbot allows him to be lost for nothing.  

[Taro T]

1 minute ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Fair point, but much depends on Risto’s play and the development of other players.  Regardless Risto will have good value in the trade market.  No way Jbot allows him to be lost for nothing.  

Perhaps he won't.  But in that case the Sabres will either lose 2 of their top 5 D and get hopefully a top 6 F in return.  Or they'll lose 1 of their top 4 D and their (prior to the trade) 7th best forward and get, again hopefully, a top 6 F in return.  Losing 2 of the top 5 D cuts pretty sharply into the depth as Bogosian will also be gone by then (no great loss by himself but that would have 4 of the 9 (the recent 8 + Pilut being considered as the 9) current NHL D they had on opening night this season gone barring any other moves).

Regardless how Botterill slices it, he's either going to lose a good (though not absolutely critical unless he truly bollockses it) asset or multiple assets including a reasonable one.  And repeating an oft repeated point: had the pricks from Seattle entered the league when they'd agreed to the Sabres would've in an absolute worst case lost Hutton and could very well have actually benefited by shedding Okposo's contract because there was literally nothing else but career AHLers that would have to be exposed this off-season.  (Assuming the Miller trade, which was made after Seattle announced its plan to delay, wouldn't have occurred as he would be the obvious piece Seattle would take this off-season.)