Seattle Expansion Thread

[GASabresIUFAN]

59 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Not sure.  Expect that he'd have to place them on his list, but not positive of that.

And, would hope that they wouldn't have to wait until July 1 for the compliance buyout anyway.  But, don't know how that'll be set up either.

It has to be a full NTC or NMC to require a team to protect them. Doesn’t matter, KO is a Sabres until his contract ends.

[Thorner]

8 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

It has to be a full NTC or NMC to require a team to protect them. Doesn’t matter, KO is a Sabres until his contract ends.

Well, it saves us from having to use a protection slot on him. 

[North Buffalo]

Dead of summer for a discussion like this over a year out... sigh I miss hockey.

[sweetlou]

My understanding that the Seattle draft doesn't happen until summer of 2021.  JBotts still has to build his teams for now and for after that draft.  He has brought in several young players to be able to fill any gaps and not feel the loss of any particular player. That being said I still he projects who he would be keeping at this time.

7 forwards-

Eichel, Reinhart, Skinner, Mitts, Olofson, Okposo (can't get rid of this contract, maybe he waives his NMC) are for sure

3 defenseman-

Dahlin, Montour are for sure

goalie- 

up in air

 

So UPL will be in Roch for this year and probably to start next year. This would leave him exempt.

McCabe, Miller, Jokiharju, and Pilut will fight it out for the third slot.  (assuming Risto is traded before this)

Cozens should play at least a year of Jr to keep him exempt as well.  

 

[Taro T]

1 hour ago, sweetlou said:

My understanding that the Seattle draft doesn't happen until summer of 2021.  JBotts still has to build his teams for now and for after that draft.  He has brought in several young players to be able to fill any gaps and not feel the loss of any particular player. That being said I still he projects who he would be keeping at this time.

7 forwards-

Eichel, Reinhart, Skinner, Mitts, Olofson, Okposo (can't get rid of this contract, maybe he waives his NMC) are for sure

3 defenseman-

Dahlin, Montour are for sure

goalie- 

up in air

 

So UPL will be in Roch for this year and probably to start next year. This would leave him exempt.

McCabe, Miller, Jokiharju, and Pilut will fight it out for the third slot.  (assuming Risto is traded before this)

Cozens should play at least a year of Jr to keep him exempt as well.  

 

Cozens and Luukkonnen will be exempt regardless of where they play this season.

But the Sabres got shafted by Seattle delaying.  Mittelstadt, Dahlin, Olofsson, Pilut, and Asplund (ottomh) among others wouldn't need to be protected had they entered when they were supposed to.

Buffalo also needs to sign a goalie to expose.  (Button's contract expires that off-season.)

#### the Seattle ####heads.  They already are the Baaah-stan of the West.

[sweetlou]

22 hours ago, Taro T said:

Cozens and Luukkonnen will be exempt regardless of where they play this season.

But the Sabres got shafted by Seattle delaying.  Mittelstadt, Dahlin, Olofsson, Pilut, and Asplund (ottomh) among others wouldn't need to be protected had they entered when they were supposed to.

Buffalo also needs to sign a goalie to expose.  (Button's contract expires that off-season.)

#### the Seattle ####heads.  They already are the Baaah-stan of the West.

First & Second Year Pros

All players who have accrued two or less professional seasons at the end of the 2020-21 season, as well as all unsigned draft choices appearing on the teams reserve list, will be exempt from the upcoming expansion draft.

Minimum Exposure Requirements

Teams must expose a minimum number of players that meet the following criteria for selection in the upcoming Expansion Draft:

Position	#	Criteria
Forwards	2	under contract in 2021-22, AND played in 40 or more NHL games last season, OR played in 70 or more NHL games in the last two seasons
Defense	1	under contract in 2021-22, AND played in 40 or more NHL games last season, OR played in 70 or more NHL games in the last two seasons
Goalies	1	under contract in 2021-22 OR who’s contract is expiring & is an RFA in 2021-22

 

So guys like Tage, Olofson, would have to be exposed or protected.

Asplund, UPL, Cozens, and anyone who has not played a game yet would be fine.

 

 

 

[steveoath]

Do players with no move clauses need to be protected? And do we have any?

[Zamboni]

10 minutes ago, steveoath said:

Do players with no move clauses need to be protected? And do we have any?

A quick google search ...

 

https://www.nhl.com/devils/news/nhl-expansion-draft-101/c-289908006

 

https://www.capfriendly.com/teams/sabres

Edited July 31, 2019 by Zamboni

[steveoath]

Cool. Thanks. Unless okposo adds Seattle to his MNTC in the off season I guess we are not forced to protect him? His contract probably keeps him 'safe' from getting picked anyway though.

[GASabresIUFAN]

31 minutes ago, steveoath said:

Do players with no move clauses need to be protected? And do we have any?

Only full NTCs or NMCs.  Only Skinner has a full NMC and would need to be protected.  He would be anyway.

Key Exempt players

All of our picks from 2017, 2018 and 2019 except Dahlin.  That means UPL, Laaksonen, Pekar, Samuelsson, Cozens and Johnson are exempt. I also think Routsalainen will be exempt.

Non-exempt young players - Borgen, Asplund, Jokiharju, Thompson, Mittelstadt, Dahlin, Pilut and Olofsson.

As of right now I’d protect

Forwards: Sam, Jack, Skinner, Mittelstadt, Asplund Thompson, and Olofsson.  Things that could change this list - Vesey’s play and whomever we get for a Ristolainen.

Defense: Dahlin, Montour and Jokiharju.  

Goalie: Ullmark. 

Of our current roster, Miller, McCabe and Pilut will be our best exposed players.  Losing one of these guys in 2 years isn’t exactly a game changer.  By that time guys like Samuelsson, Borgen, Laaksonen, Bryson and Johnson could be ready to take their place.  A good decent young forward could also end up available like Thompson or Asplund depending on if Vesey blossoms and if we get someone good for Ristolainen.  

I was worried about this a while back, but I’m not anymore after looking at our stacked D prospect pipeline and knowing Cozens, Davidsson, Pekar and Routsalainen are exempt.

 By the way we currently only have 5 players signed beyond 2020-21 - Jack, KO, Skinner, Risto and Miller, with Risto having one foot out the door.  

Edited July 31, 2019 by GASabresIUFAN

[Taro T]

1 hour ago, sweetlou said:

First & Second Year Pros

All players who have accrued two or less professional seasons at the end of the 2020-21 season, as well as all unsigned draft choices appearing on the teams reserve list, will be exempt from the upcoming expansion draft.

Minimum Exposure Requirements

Teams must expose a minimum number of players that meet the following criteria for selection in the upcoming Expansion Draft:

Position	#	Criteria
Forwards	2	under contract in 2021-22, AND played in 40 or more NHL games last season, OR played in 70 or more NHL games in the last two seasons
Defense	1	under contract in 2021-22, AND played in 40 or more NHL games last season, OR played in 70 or more NHL games in the last two seasons
Goalies	1	under contract in 2021-22 OR who’s contract is expiring & is an RFA in 2021-22

 

So guys like Tage, Olofson, would have to be exposed or protected.

Asplund, UPL, Cozens, and anyone who has not played a game yet would be fine.

 

  

 

Asplund played in Ra-cha-cha last year.  He will have played 3 pro seasons by the time the protected lists need to be submitted and therefore will need to be protected to guarantee Seattle doesn't select him.

[Taro T]

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Only full NTCs or NMCs.  Only Skinner has a full NMC and would need to be protected.  He would be anyway.

Key Exempt players

All of our picks from 2017, 2018 and 2019 except Dahlin.  That means UPL, Laaksonen, Pekar, Samuelsson, Cozens and Johnson are exempt. I also think Routsalainen will be exempt.

Non-exempt young players - Borgen, Asplund, Jokiharju, Thompson, Mittelstadt, Dahlin, Pilut and Olofsson.

As of right now I’d protect

Forwards: Sam, Jack, Skinner, Mittelstadt, Asplund Thompson, and Olofsson.  Things that could change this list - Vesey’s play and whomever we get for a Ristolainen.

Defense: Dahlin, Montour and Jokiharju.  

Goalie: Ullmark. 

Of our current roster, Miller, McCabe and Pilut will be our best exposed players.  Losing one of these guys in 2 years isn’t exactly a game changer.  By that time guys like Samuelsson, Borgen, Laaksonen, Bryson and Johnson could be ready to take their place.  A good decent young forward could also end up available like Thompson or Asplund depending on if Vesey blossoms and if we get someone good for Ristolainen.  

I was worried about this a while back, but I’m not anymore after looking at our stacked D prospect pipeline and knowing Cozens, Davidsson, Pekar and Routsalainen are exempt.

 By the way we currently only have 5 players signed beyond 2020-21 - Jack, KO, Skinner, Risto and Miller, with Risto having one foot out the door.  

Been of the opinion for a while now that Seattle will take a D-man.  And that it won't be crippling.  Still am quite frustrated that the Sabres have to lose a 2nd pairing D-man because if the ####heads came into the league when they'd agreed to, the Sabres would've either lost Hutton or a true scrub/reach.

[Huckleberry]

I'm starting to wonder this is the reason Mojo only signed a 2 year deal.   He reaches UFA status at the Seattle draft might be an under the table agreement between him and Botts that he gets an extension after the draft.

[GASabresIUFAN]

11 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

I'm starting to wonder this is the reason Mojo only signed a 2 year deal.   He reaches UFA status at the Seattle draft might be an under the table agreement between him and Botts that he gets an extension after the draft.

Jbot has been working out of cap hell since he got here.  I’m sure that was only a minor consideration when he signed MoJo, but it adds flexibility.

[miles]

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Jbot has been working out of cap hell since he got here.  I’m sure that was only a minor consideration when he signed MoJo, but it adds flexibility.

It really seems like GMTM completely wrecked this team to get the pick for McDavid. I suppose it all worked out cause sabres got eichel and dahlin from the trainwreck. I suspect without the tank, maybe sabres don't have either 

 

By wrecked I mean didn't just get rid of good players, but also made bad contracts that the sabres are still dealing with 

Edited October 15, 2019 by miles

[Doohicksie]

By the time Mojo's contract is up, his services may no longer be required by JBot.

[Taro T]

10 hours ago, Doohickie said:

By the time Mojo's contract is up, his services may no longer be required by JBot.

Possible, but unlikely.  Once Cozens and Mittelstadt start to stand on their own as C's, Johansson could very effectively find himself in a Jochen Hecht role.  Jochen literally played every role in the top 9 while the Sabres were playing some of the best hockey in their history.

[Taro T]

11 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Jbot has been working out of cap hell since he got here.  I’m sure that was only a minor consideration when he signed MoJo, but it adds flexibility.

He has.  But, he's demonstrated a willingness to be patient beyond a fault when the team has shown a possibility to exceed expectations.  Should this start prove sustainable, it will be very interesting to see what kind of moves (if any) he makes. 

Bringing in 1 more top 6 forward, could guarantee this team a playoff berth.  And he could see Tage Thompson in that too 6 role come January and could be willing to forego a move to bring someone else from the outside in sooner because his window opens next year and this season could be immaterial in his long term vision regardless of whether a tweak that removes a prospect or 2 could gain this squad (many of which will be here for the long haul) some very valuable playoff experience.

And, it could very well simply be "battered Buffalo fan syndrome" that has me hesitant to get on board with believing Botterill finds winning this season as imperative as us battered fans consider it to be.  When Botterill makes a move to improve line 2 that works, I'll start to believe.

And I fully believe this team will be good next year and very good for the foreseeable future after that.  But really want to see these guys get in the dance this year.  (And Krueger might get them there even without any reinforcements.  Just would like to see that 1 missing piece brought in sooner than later.)

[pi2000]

11 hours ago, miles said:

It really seems like GMTM completely wrecked this team to get the pick for McDavid. I suppose it all worked out cause sabres got eichel and dahlin from the trainwreck. I suspect without the tank, maybe sabres don't have either 

 

By wrecked I mean didn't just get rid of good players, but also made bad contracts that the sabres are still dealing with 

If they had won the lottery and got McDavid, would they have been bad enough to win Dahlin?   

Would your rather have Eichel and Dahlib or McDavid and somebody like say Quinn Hughes?

[Huckleberry]

25 minutes ago, pi2000 said:

If they had won the lottery and got McDavid, would they have been bad enough to win Dahlin?   

Would your rather have Eichel and Dahlib or McDavid and somebody like say Quinn Hughes?

I'm happy with what we got, Eichel + Dhalin >>>>>>>> McDavid.

[Doohicksie]

6 hours ago, Taro T said:

Possible, but unlikely.  Once Cozens and Mittelstadt start to stand on their own as C's, Johansson could very effectively find himself in a Jochen Hecht role.  Jochen literally played every role in the top 9 while the Sabres were playing some of the best hockey in their history.

Right.  But my point is, one way or the other, he's not going to break the cap.  If he's still playing great hockey, good enough to get caught up in a bidding war, the Sabres won't need to match.  They can let him walk.

[miles]

5 hours ago, pi2000 said:

If they had won the lottery and got McDavid, would they have been bad enough to win Dahlin?   

Would your rather have Eichel and Dahlib or McDavid and somebody like say Quinn Hughes?

I'm happy with dahlin and eichel for sure. I cant say I would be happier with different duo.  I really enjoy watching dahlin

[GASabresIUFAN]

7 hours ago, Taro T said:

He has.  But, he's demonstrated a willingness to be patient beyond a fault when the team has shown a possibility to exceed expectations.  Should this start prove sustainable, it will be very interesting to see what kind of moves (if any) he makes. 

Bringing in 1 more top 6 forward, could guarantee this team a playoff berth.  And he could see Tage Thompson in that too 6 role come January and could be willing to forego a move to bring someone else from the outside in sooner because his window opens next year and this season could be immaterial in his long term vision regardless of whether a tweak that removes a prospect or 2 could gain this squad (many of which will be here for the long haul) some very valuable playoff experience.

And, it could very well simply be "battered Buffalo fan syndrome" that has me hesitant to get on board with believing Botterill finds winning this season as imperative as us battered fans consider it to be.  When Botterill makes a move to improve line 2 that works, I'll start to believe.

And I fully believe this team will be good next year and very good for the foreseeable future after that.  But really want to see these guys get in the dance this year.  (And Krueger might get them there even without any reinforcements.  Just would like to see that 1 missing piece brought in sooner than later.)

I outlined the Sabres cap situation in the 2020-21 lineup thread. 

Next off-season if we re-sign Montour, Sam, Vic, Larsson, Mitts, Girgensons and Ullmark and allow ERod, Bogo, Scandella, Sheary, Vesey, and Sobotka to walk to pay for it, we’ll be at around 77 million in cap with guys like Borgen, Lazar, Cozens, Asplund and Thompson stepping into the roles of the departed players.  

That doesn’t leave huge space to add a top 6 forward and then re-sign Dahlin in 2021.  Based on this analysis, I think any player we acquire this season will be a rental unless Jbot trades Risto for that top forward.

Edited October 16, 2019 by GASabresIUFAN

[triumph_communes]

8 hours ago, Taro T said:

He has.  But, he's demonstrated a willingness to be patient beyond a fault when the team has shown a possibility to exceed expectations.  Should this start prove sustainable, it will be very interesting to see what kind of moves (if any) he makes. 

Bringing in 1 more top 6 forward, could guarantee this team a playoff berth.  And he could see Tage Thompson in that too 6 role come January and could be willing to forego a move to bring someone else from the outside in sooner because his window opens next year and this season could be immaterial in his long term vision regardless of whether a tweak that removes a prospect or 2 could gain this squad (many of which will be here for the long haul) some very valuable playoff experience.

And, it could very well simply be "battered Buffalo fan syndrome" that has me hesitant to get on board with believing Botterill finds winning this season as imperative as us battered fans consider it to be.  When Botterill makes a move to improve line 2 that works, I'll start to believe.

And I fully believe this team will be good next year and very good for the foreseeable future after that.  But really want to see these guys get in the dance this year.  (And Krueger might get them there even without any reinforcements.  Just would like to see that 1 missing piece brought in sooner than later.)

 

We have this last season of cap hell left before the light comes.  There is no cap banking going on with the LTIR and we will not be able to acquire a high cap rental at the deadline this year.  Please, set your expectations lower now.  A pick for a rental winger isn't possible.  If the trade is not cap neutral, it won't happen.

 

You can simply argue that Botterill saw the analytics behind the last two seasons and knew there was no reason to make a move that didn't heavily favor long-term implications.  And I would've agreed with that.  No one winger was salvaging last season.  Montour, which he did acquire, barely made a dent.

 

Five straight years of 2nd rounders for useless rentals, and misses on 1st rounders, is what got us into this mess in the first place.  Let's not hastily run back there.

Edited October 16, 2019 by triumph_communes

[Taro T]

5 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I outlined the Sabres cap situation in the 2020-21 lineup thread. 

Next off-season if we re-sign Montour, Sam, Vic, Larsson, Mitts, Girgensons and Ullmark and allow ERod, Bogo, Scandella, Sheary, Vesey, and Sobotka to walk to pay for it, we’ll be at around 77 million in cap with guys like Borgen, Lazar, Cozens, Asplund and Thompson stepping into the roles of the departed players.  

That doesn’t leave huge space to add a top 6 forward and then re-sign Dahlin in 2021.  Based on this analysis, I think any player we acquire this season will be a rental unless Jbot trades Risto for that top forward.

Wasn't clear in my post.  I'd expect any trade for that forward help would cost a D (presumably Ristolainen, possibly Scandella or other) but that D would most likely need to be supplanted by a prospect or 2 to make the trade worthwhile.  (Have said quite often that forward help today would come at the cost of a D (and likely plus) but in the post you quoted, so kind of had the D man already a given but should've spelled it out.). Was focusing on the loss of a prospect or 2 being the price that Botterill wouldn't be willing to pay unless there is some really special circumstances.  Much like he went out and got Johansson 7 months later than he could have (and many here argued he should have) because it only cost money and not prospects plus the money.  (Neglecting for the moment that there also was no guarantee in January that he'd re-sign this summer, because turns out they would have been able to re-sign him.)

And any trade that doesn't include someone on the current roster going out would almost definitely be a rental not just because of cap considerations in 2 years but also because no GM is going to give up a good top 6 F for futures unless there is some extremely unlikely 2ndary considerations.