Signing the RFAs - the Key to this off-season

[GASabresIUFAN]

We have 8 significant RFAs; 5 of which are current key players for the team (numbers from Capfriendly)

1) Samson Reinhart - Q Offer 3.75 w Arb rights - 1st Line RW;  Arbitration case:  4 of 5 season w 20 goals plus; 3 straight 50+ points seasons

2) Montour - Q offer 3.525 w Arb rights - Top 4 type D; Arbitration case: 32 and 35 pt seasons before playing wrong side last season.  Still was a +13 on a bad team.

3) Ullmark - Q offer 1.325 w Arb rights - Starting goalie; 2.69 gaa and .915 sv % were career bests and solidly mid-level of starting NHL goalies

4) Olofsson - Q offer 700K w Arb rights - Top 2 line LW; 42 pts in 54 games as a rookie; 2nd in rookie goals and points. Projects as a 30 goal scorer in a full season

5) Kahun - Q offer 832,500 w Arb rights - Likely 2nd line RW; 2 NHL seasons saw him scorer 12+ goals and 30+ points each season.  @ 100K per point, that's a $3 mill player. 

The other 3 are important depth players or kids fighting for roster spots

6) Lazar - Q offer 700K w Arb rights - 4th line center or LW

7) Mittelstadt - Q offer 832,500 - Possible 3rd line center or W

8.) Thompson - Q offer 832,500 - Possible/likely 3rd line RW

IMHO how KA manages the cost if the 5 key RFAs will make or break our off-season.  The cheaper he gets these guys this off-season helps maximize our actual $ and cap $ to improve the team.  However, not locking up Reinhart and Olofsson to long-term could have serious negative consequences long-term.  

Back in April the Athletic projected the contracts for our key RFAs as follows. (please try not to laugh at the 1st 3 deals)

Reinhart 8yrs @ 8.744 per season; VO 4 years @ 4.977; Montour 3 years @ 4.802; Kahun and 2 yr @ 2.912.  He also estimated that Ullmark gets a deal similar to CBJ's Korpisalo at 2 yrs @ 2.8.  I think only the Ullmark and Kahun deals speak of reality.  The rest are way over inflated IMHO given COVID, the recession and about half the NHL going to austerity measures.

Here is how big the difference can be.  The Q offers to the 5 total 10.1325 million, but with arbitration rights that number is unrealistic on the low end.  Using the Athletic numbers the 5 RFAs would cost 24.235 million.  Given our current 47 mill in cap obligations and internal cap we can't afford those numbers and field a team. That number is also unrealistic given the economic reality in the NHL right now.  The truth lies somewhere in the middle.  I think if KA can get all 5 on 2 year deals I think he'd do well to come in at around 18.8 (6.5 for SR, 2.8 for LU, 2.5 for DK, 3 for VO and 4 for BM).  Anything under these numbers would be a steal.  I like the idea of 2 year deals because it add some stability without obligating the team forever, especially when I believe that all but Reinhart (and to a lesser extent VO) are replaceable if they want to much money. 

If I'm KA, I'm re-signing Montour and trading Risto, but time and market conditions will tell if he agrees.  Managing the RFAs well should enable the team to afford to re-sign Larsson and maybe also had another middle six forward.    

Manage the RFAs poorly and we'll be a status quo team hoping that improvement is a result of the development of our kids and the rebound in Skinner's scoring touch.

 

 

 

Edited September 19, 2020 by GASabresIUFAN

[Sabres Fan in NS]

The only one that I really need to Sabres to sign long-term is Samson.

[PerreaultForever]

There is no one on that list that I consider essential but I wouldn't want to let them walk for nothing either like that Montour rumour. 

[bob_sauve28]

Lazar should get locked up for awhile, if possible. 2 million a year for five years. 

[inkman]

1 hour ago, bob_sauve28 said:

Lazar should get locked up for awhile, if possible. 2 million a year for five years. 

I just don't see the need.  He's a nice story and plays with a desperation seriously missing from some of our players but he's still JAG.  He'll get signed for one or two years. 

[bob_sauve28]

58 minutes ago, inkman said:

I just don't see the need.  He's a nice story and plays with a desperation seriously missing from some of our players but he's still JAG.  He'll get signed for one or two years. 

I’ll take two years. But would rather have him for longer at a cheat price 

[nfreeman]

4 hours ago, bob_sauve28 said:

Lazar should get locked up for awhile, if possible. 2 million a year for five years. 

Whoa there Bobby.  I think JF's been lacing the poutine again.

[SABRES 0311]

I hope KA brings VO back. He’s a welcomed addition to the PP. I’d like to see him start the season with Jack and Sam which helps facilitate a Skinner/Staal reunion. Three years at 2-2.5 mil to start negotiations?

[PerreaultForever]

7 hours ago, bob_sauve28 said:

Lazar should get locked up for awhile, if possible. 2 million a year for five years. 

This is sarcasm right? 

[Curt]

11 hours ago, bob_sauve28 said:

Lazar should get locked up for awhile, if possible. 2 million a year for five years. 

I think that you could offer 1 million for 5 years and Lazar would agree.  He hasn’t done anything to justify a $2M salary, or 5 years honestly.  What do you see?

[steveoath]

6 hours ago, SABRES 0311 said:

I hope KA brings VO back

Do do I or I need to get a new nameplate and number for my 50th jersey!!

 

Plus Vic's a quality goalscorer.

 

The real pain the arse contract this offseason is still the boat anchor that is Kyke Okposo's. In an era where we're talking reduced cap him taking up ~15% is maddening. (I also don't feel any anger/frustration towards Kyle fwiw. Fair play to him and his agent). 

[bob_sauve28]

5 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

This is sarcasm right? 

Is this sarcasm? 

[bob_sauve28]

2 hours ago, Curt said:

I think that you could offer 1 million for 5 years and Lazar would agree.  He hasn’t done anything to justify a $2M salary, or 5 years honestly.  What do you see?

He’s totally solid. Great on face offs, a great character to have on the team, tough and works hard. 2 million is not a lot. I’m also assuming he has more upside. 

[inkman]

11 hours ago, SABRES 0311 said:

I hope KA brings VO back. He’s a welcomed addition to the PP. I’d like to see him start the season with Jack and Sam which helps facilitate a Skinner/Staal reunion. Three years at 2-2.5 mil to start negotiations?

WHY IN THE NAME OF EVERYTHJNG THAT IS HOLY WOULD THE SABRES NOT BRING BACK OLOFSSON?  

[nfreeman]

Excellent thread as always @GASabresIUFAN   

However, I think there is no way the Sabres give Reino a 2-year deal.  It will either be a LT deal (most likely outcome) or they will trade him (maybe a 25% chance).

I also think they will want to sign VO to a longer term deal.

i agree that Montour or Risto is likely to be traded — which one it is will depend on the trade partner’s preferences.  

[Shootica]

Reinhart, to me, either gets 5 years, 8 years, or traded.

5 would bring him to UFA at 29, which would be ideal for him if he wants to get that big UFA deal.

8 would be if he wants stability and to maximize his guaranteed money now.

And a trade if they can't come to a reasonable agreement.

I'd put my money on 5 years.

[Taro T]

2 hours ago, nfreeman said:

Excellent thread as always @GASabresIUFAN   

However, I think there is no way the Sabres give Reino a 2-year deal.  It will either be a LT deal (most likely outcome) or they will trade him (maybe a 25% chance).

I also think they will want to sign VO to a longer term deal.

i agree that Montour or Risto is likely to be traded — which one it is will depend on the trade partner’s preferences.  

Yeah, Reinhart ends up w/ at least a 5 year deal & likely 6 or 7 (would be ecstatic shoukd they lock him up for 8 years, particularly w/ no NMC starting in year 5).  If Adams has to go 2 year deal, that Ehlers for Reinhart idea gains merit.

Expecting Olofsson to end up with a 4-5 year deal & Montour's deal to be at least 3 years.

Fully expecting either Ristolainen or Montour out the door in a deal that further improves the F's & as Krueger never seemecto take a shine to Miller would really expect to see him swapped for a more defensive minded D-man.  

[Curt]

7 hours ago, bob_sauve28 said:

He’s totally solid. Great on face offs, a great character to have on the team, tough and works hard. 2 million is not a lot. I’m also assuming he has more upside. 

$2M is a lot for a 4th line player.  Why are you assuming that he has more upside?  What upside do you see?

[In The Buff]

Yeah $2 mil is too much for Lazar. He'd accept less for sure... dudes probably just happy to be with a team. $1m -1.25m seems about right for him, 2 year deal if you want.

No reason to go anymore above that for either party.

[PerreaultForever]

9 hours ago, bob_sauve28 said:

He’s totally solid. Great on face offs, a great character to have on the team, tough and works hard. 2 million is not a lot. I’m also assuming he has more upside. 

imo it's about double what he's worth. A 2-way contract would be more suitable. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

6 hours ago, nfreeman said:

Excellent thread as always @GASabresIUFAN   

However, I think there is no way the Sabres give Reino a 2-year deal.  It will either be a LT deal (most likely outcome) or they will trade him (maybe a 25% chance).

I also think they will want to sign VO to a longer term deal.

i agree that Montour or Risto is likely to be traded — which one it is will depend on the trade partner’s preferences.  

If we pay 8 mill to a 55/60 pt scorer in these economic times KA should be fired.  We overpaid Skinner because we “had” to.  I’m sorry but Reinhart doesn’t do anything well enough to justify that kind of number.  He doesn’t score enough goals, doesn’t create enough and isn’t very fast.  Nice 6-7 mill player but beyond that is a mistake 

[bob_sauve28]

19 hours ago, Curt said:

$2M is a lot for a 4th line player.  Why are you assuming that he has more upside?  What upside do you see?

I would say that over an 82 game schedule, his ability of winning that face off in OT might be worth as much as 8 points in a season, maybe more, maybe less. That in and of itself is worth a lot. 

 

Like i said, he’s tough, plays hard and sets a good example. The upside I see is that he might start finishing more. He seems like an intelligent hard working guy and if he is trying to improve that part of his game, he just might. 

[Shootica]

18 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

If we pay 8 mill to a 55/60 pt scorer in these economic times KA should be fired.  We overpaid Skinner because we “had” to.  I’m sorry but Reinhart doesn’t do anything well enough to justify that kind of number.  He doesn’t score enough goals, doesn’t create enough and isn’t very fast.  Nice 6-7 mill player but beyond that is a mistake 

I'd have to think Willy Nylander's contract is an upper limit comp for Reinhart.

[GASabresIUFAN]

22 minutes ago, Shootica said:

I'd have to think Willy Nylander's contract is an upper limit comp for Reinhart.

If we look at the contracts of guys like William Karlsson, Larkin among others you’ll see the 6.5 is the right number.  

[Shootica]

13 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

If we look at the contracts of guys like William Karlsson, Larkin among others you’ll see the 6.5 is the right number.  

5 x 6.5 seems about right.