Casey Mittelstadt, what should we make of him

[Weave]

9 hours ago, dudacek said:

I would say they all played a game that said “this guy isn’t ready.” You’ve made the jump to “and it doesn’t look like he ever will be” as far as Casey is concerned. 

How do you tell the difference? I think that’s the question I am trying to raise with my post.

And I can't put a finger on it.  It's a little like Sam's first two seasons.  He never showed the flashes of what I see when I see a good center.  I can't define it, but I didn't see it.  And that's why I was so vocal early on that Sam was likely a RW, not a center.  However, Sam did show flashes of "he's going to be a good NHL forward". .I don't get that sort of vibe with Casey.  It's not an "he's not ready" vibe.  It's a "he's not showing flashes that he's figuring it out" vibe.

Edited August 22, 2020 by Weave

[Drag0nDan]

On 8/22/2020 at 8:40 AM, Weave said:

And I can't put a finger on it.  It's a little like Sam's first two seasons.  He never showed the flashes of what I see when I see a good center.  I can't define it, but I didn't see it.  And that's why I was so vocal early on that Sam was likely a RW, not a center.  However, Sam did show flashes of "he's going to be a good NHL forward". .I don't get that sort of vibe with Casey.  It's not an "he's not ready" vibe.  It's a "he's not showing flashes that he's figuring it out" vibe.

Never seems to be in the right place, and thinks he can outskate everyone... which he can't.  He needs a lot of work - and probably a full year in AHL.  

[Taro T]

1 hour ago, Drag0nDan said:

Never seems to be in the right place, and thinks he can outskate everyone... which he can't.  He needs a lot of work - and probably a full year in AHL.  

You say he doesn't backcheck, implying he's lazy, but he actually tries.  He simply isn't good at it yet as he is not good without the puck.  (It's an issue Eichel had his 1st 2 seasons and though he still occasionally gets lost in his own end - especially against a strong cycle while Ristolainen is on the ice with him, he has improved tremendously at that and the expectation is Mittelstadt will get better at that as well.)  We used to joke that he looked like a golden lab puppy when he didn't have the puck because he was clearly lost at times & just trying to find where the "ball" had been tossed, especially when his line got caught against the other team's top line.

As for trying to outskate everyone, that IMHO is not his issue with the puck.  The issue is he needs to be better at not carrying the puck into a phone booth thinking he can out stickhandle multiple players.  It worked in HS; it worked at the WJC; it worked to a certain degree in the NCAA (had he had linemates with any skill at all, it would've worked better, again IMHO); it will only rarely work at the NHL level.  He needs to learn how to play an effective game at this level.

Watched a lot of Amerks games on TV after the single team package price dropped in early January (?).  He's been getting better at some of these things, but is still a work in progress.

[JohnC]

1 hour ago, Taro T said:

You say he doesn't backcheck, implying he's lazy, but he actually tries.  He simply isn't good at it yet as he is not good without the puck.  (It's an issue Eichel had his 1st 2 seasons and though he still occasionally gets lost in his own end - especially against a strong cycle while Ristolainen is on the ice with him, he has improved tremendously at that and the expectation is Mittelstadt will get better at that as well.)  We used to joke that he looked like a golden lab puppy when he didn't have the puck because he was clearly lost at times & just trying to find where the "ball" had been tossed, especially when his line got caught against the other team's top line.

As for trying to outskate everyone, that IMHO is not his issue with the puck.  The issue is he needs to be better at not carrying the puck into a phone booth thinking he can out stickhandle multiple players.  It worked in HS; it worked at the WJC; it worked to a certain degree in the NCAA (had he had linemates with any skill at all, it would've worked better, again IMHO); it will only rarely work at the NHL level.  He needs to learn how to play an effective game at this level.

Watched a lot of Amerks games on TV after the single team package price dropped in early January (?).  He's been getting better at some of these things, but is still a work in progress.

My takeaway from your post is that the best way to handle him is to start him off in the AHL and give him the time and space to develop his game. That grooming process should have happened sooner. As of right now I don't think he has much value on the market. So most likely the best way to increase his value whether he ultimately remains with the organization or not is to allow him more time to grow as a player. If he eventually develops into the player that is commensurate with his draft status it would be a terrific bonus for this franchise. 

[Broken Ankles]

8 hours ago, JohnC said:

My takeaway from your post is that the best way to handle him is to start him off in the AHL and give him the time and space to develop his game. That grooming process should have happened sooner. As of right now I don't think he has much value on the market. So most likely the best way to increase his value whether he ultimately remains with the organization or not is to allow him more time to grow as a player. If he eventually develops into the player that is commensurate with his draft status it would be a terrific bonus for this franchise. 

   This situation is like a falling stock.  Of course you can hold on and wait to see if it will rebound, but it also could hit zero.  In which case, selling now might be the right move.  I appreciate @Taro T's cogent analysis.  It sounds more promising than not.  I  have no idea what the value is outside the organization but I guess that's was KA needs to decide.   If another GM is willing to give you something you perceive as valuable now, does that benefit outweigh the risk of holding on for another year or two.  We also need to consider the expansion draft.  What if Casey has a good year in Roch, but Tage stays with the big club all year?   Casey's on the outside looking in as far as protection, and you get to watch him develop with another club. 

[JohnC]

5 minutes ago, Broken Ankles said:

   This situation is like a falling stock.  Of course you can hold on and wait to see if it will rebound, but it also could hit zero.  In which case, selling now might be the right move.  I appreciate @Taro T's cogent analysis.  It sounds more promising than not.  I  have no idea what the value is outside the organization but I guess that's was KA needs to decide.   If another GM is willing to give you something you perceive as valuable now, does that benefit outweigh the risk of holding on for another year or two.  We also need to consider the expansion draft.  What if Casey has a good year in Roch, but Tage stays with the big club all year?   Casey's on the outside looking in as far as protection, and you get to watch him develop with another club.

Right now Casey has little value in the market. What is seen within the market is also seen outside the market.  If he goes back to the AHL and upgrades his play and shows some promise then his value increases, maybe not significantly but marginally more. There is some chance, probably unlikely, that he comes into camp physically prepared and with more drive and demonstrates that he can compete and contribute on a NHL roster. 

With respect to your comment about Casey having a good year in Rochester and then losing him is not an issue that bothers me. If he plays well enough in Rochester he will get an opportunity with the big club. If he plays well in Rochester and we lose him in expansion then I will wish him well and be happy for him. 

[dudacek]

1 hour ago, JohnC said:

Right now Casey has little value in the market. What is seen within the market is also seen outside the market.  If he goes back to the AHL and upgrades his play and shows some promise then his value increases, maybe not significantly but marginally more. There is some chance, probably unlikely, that he comes into camp physically prepared and with more drive and demonstrates that he can compete and contribute on a NHL roster. 

With respect to your comment about Casey having a good year in Rochester and then losing him is not an issue that bothers me. If he plays well enough in Rochester he will get an opportunity with the big club. If he plays well in Rochester and we lose him in expansion then I will wish him well and be happy for him. 

Casey has shown more than Alex Nylander did and Alex was traded for Henri Jokiharju, a 1st-round pick who put up 70-points in his D+1 junior season and spent half his D2 season in the NHL. Joki wasn't some "out-of-nowhere" player. His value was well-known to prospect watchers.

A lot of scouts loved Casey's game two and three years ago. He played 93 NHL games and put up 37 points before he turned 21.

I suspect he has more value than you might think.

Edited August 25, 2020 by dudacek

[JohnC]

4 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Casey has shown more than Alex Nylander did and Alex was traded for Henri Jokiharju, a 1st-round pick who put up 70-points in his D+1 junior season and spent half his D2 season in the NHL. Joki wasn't some "out-of-nowhere" player. His value was well-known to prospect watchers.

A lot of scouts loved Casey's game two and three years ago. He played 93 NHL games and put up 37 points before he turned 21.

I suspect he has more value than you might think.

He will have even more value for us or as a tradeable asset if he shows an appreciable amount improvement while with us. I'm not giving up on him or counting on him as a Buffalo contributor. This is a case where he has to show what he is capable of. In order to start that process he needs  to come to camp next year (assuming he is not traded) in impeccable shape and in camp exhibit more aggressiveness to  both sides of his game. As I said in a prior post probably the best course for him is to start the season in Rochester and get a lot of playing time. In my estimation that would help his development or show that he needs to be somewhere else for a fresh start. 

[nfreeman]

2 hours ago, dudacek said:

Casey has shown more than Alex Nylander did and Alex was traded for Henri Jokiharju, a 1st-round pick who put up 70-points in his D+1 junior season and spent half his D2 season in the NHL. Joki wasn't some "out-of-nowhere" player. His value was well-known to prospect watchers.

A lot of scouts loved Casey's game two and three years ago. He played 93 NHL games and put up 37 points before he turned 21.

I suspect he has more value than you might think.

This is fair, but I don’t think they could get a first-round pick for him in October, and probably not a high second-rounder either.

He has loser Sabres stink on him.  

[Eleven]

15 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

This is fair, but I don’t think they could get a first-round pick for him in October, and probably not a high second-rounder either.

He has loser Sabres stink on him.  

He causes more loser Sabres stink than he absorbs.  He is a net producer of loser Sabres stink.

[Thorner]

On 8/20/2020 at 11:02 AM, Drag0nDan said:

I'm open to anything at this point.  There needs to be at least 4 forwards that are comfortable killing penalties though.  If Girgs/Larsson don't both return that leaves a big gaping hole there.  Asplund is probably the only potential call-up that fits in that role, maybe you could include lazar there.  But if your line 3 is kahun/johansson/olofsson - any winger/2C that is brought in most likely needs to be a 2 way player.  

You could let cozens play center and just try and load that line.  Grab wingers to fill out the rest of the roster maybe.  I think we're all nervous to do that since mittelstadt failed so spectacularly, and the definition of insanity... but if you can't find a center at the very least move a dman and go after some wingers.  

I’m very open to the idea of Cozens starting on the wing, but I’m also not ruling out the possibility he’d be able to hold down a 2-way 3C role as a rookie, if he has Johansson and Kahun as his wingers, and most importantly, has 2 proper top 6 centres (and their lines) providing the proper insulation above him. 

Johansson was overmatched as a top 6 player, particularly at C, but I think line 3 is a reasonable expectation of him, and Kahun could very well be a solid middle-6 winger. 

[dudacek]

I’ve seen it posted on here a few times how we should’ve known Casey wasn’t all that because of his college production in his D1 year. 
Here are some comparables:

• Casey Mittelstadt 34 GP, 11/19/30
• Alex Turcotte 29 9/17/26
• Trevor Zegras 36 11/25/36
• Matt Boldy 34 9/17/26
• Cole Caufield 36 19/17/36
• Oliver Wahlstrom 36 8/11/19
• Joel Farabee 36 17/19/36
• Josh Norris 37 8/15/23
• Clayton Keller 31 21/24/45
• Kyle Connor 35/36/71
• Dylan Larkin 35 15/32/47
• Alex Tuch 37 14/14/28
• Nick Schmaltz 38 5/21/26

We’re looking at top 20 American picks drafted prior to their first year college. Casey looks pretty middle of the pack in a very good group of prospects.

And my god, Kyle Connor!

 

 

 

 

Edited September 6, 2020 by dudacek

[SwampD]

24 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I’ve seen it posted on here a few times how we should’ve known Casey wasn’t all that because of his college production in his D1 year. 
Here are some comparables:

• Casey Mittelstadt 34 GP, 11/19/30
• Alex Turcotte 29 9/17/26
• Trevor Zegras 36 11/25/36
• Matt Boldy 34 9/17/26
• Cole Caufield 36 19/17/36
• Oliver Wahlstrom 36 8/11/19
• Joel Farabee 36 17/19/36
• Josh Norris 37 8/15/23
• Clayton Keller 31 21/24/45
• Kyle Connor 35/36/71
• Dylan Larkin 35 15/32/47
• Alex Tuch 37 14/14/28
• Nick Schmaltz 38 5/21/26

We’re looking at top 20 American picks drafted prior to their first year college. Casey looks pretty middle of the pack in a very good group of prospects.

And my god, Kyle Connor!

 

 

 

 

Something isn’t right with this.

[rakish]

regarding Connor, his 1.87 pts per game is fairly close to Eichel's 1.78, though Eichel was a full year younger. Connor, even more than Eichel, was playing with a handful of future NHL players.

If you don't all delete this thread before Liger shows up, that's on you.

[Gatorman0519]

On 8/18/2020 at 2:55 PM, Eleven said:

A few people got on my back when I didn't want the Sabres to draft Bennett solely because of the pull-up thing, but this really is the reason.  There's no excuse for an athlete being so completely unprepared.

My son is in the Marines... he was delayed entry and couldn't do more than 1-2 pull ups... within 2 months he was doing 10 pull ups at 16 years old.  He does 20 now.  No excuse.

[LGR4GM]

4 hours ago, dudacek said:

I’ve seen it posted on here a few times how we should’ve known Casey wasn’t all that because of his college production in his D1 year. 
Here are some comparables:

• Casey Mittelstadt 34 GP, 11/19/30
• Alex Turcotte 29 9/17/26
• Trevor Zegras 36 11/25/36
• Matt Boldy 34 9/17/26
• Cole Caufield 36 19/17/36
• Oliver Wahlstrom 36 8/11/19
• Joel Farabee 36 17/19/36
• Josh Norris 37 8/15/23
• Clayton Keller 31 21/24/45
• Kyle Connor 35/36/71
• Dylan Larkin 35 15/32/47
• Alex Tuch 37 14/14/28
• Nick Schmaltz 38 5/21/26

We’re looking at top 20 American picks drafted prior to their first year college. Casey looks pretty middle of the pack in a very good group of prospects.

And my god, Kyle Connor!

Now list all those players who got on an NHL team following that first year. 

Casey didn't develop, that's the problem. He easily wasn't NHL ready and was tossed into it with no development plan. He's the exact same player he was when he left college and it wasn't good enough then and isn't now. 

[In The Buff]

1 hour ago, Gatorman0519 said:

My son is in the Marines... he was delayed entry and couldn't do more than 1-2 pull ups... within 2 months he was doing 10 pull ups at 16 years old.  He does 20 now.  No excuse.

Sounds like you have a good son there. Thank you for his service.

But if Casey hasn't improved from this here, we have a big problem.

[Stoner]

 

 

[PerreaultForever]

3 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Now list all those players who got on an NHL team following that first year. 

Casey didn't develop, that's the problem. He easily wasn't NHL ready and was tossed into it with no development plan. He's the exact same player he was when he left college and it wasn't good enough then and isn't now. 

That's the problem, exactly. We do not develop players properly, period. 

[Broken Ankles]

2 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

That's the problem, exactly. We do not develop players properly, period. 

Except for those that we do.  Larsson, Ullmark, McNabb, and Armia to name a few recent.  Just because a GM decides to move on from a player does not mean the development was not successful.  LA and Vegas benefitted from McNabbs development. It would appear that Borgen, Bryson and Murray are on the right track.  Casey needs to take a large part of the responsibility for this failure.   He (his agent) forced the hand of JB to get paid immediately.  He chose to play Fortnite until all hours and play nip with his pals rather than spend every waking hour improving his game.  Yes, a massive black eye for the Sabres and surely a factor in the decision to cut ties with JB, but not an indictment of the entire organization.  

Edited September 7, 2020 by Broken Ankles

[SwampD]

17 minutes ago, Broken Ankles said:

Except for those that we do.  Larsson, Ullmark, McNabb, and Armia to name a few recent.  Just because a GM decides to move on from a player does not mean the development was not successful.  LA and Vegas benefitted from McNabbs development. It would appear that Borgen, Bryson and Murray are on the right track.  Casey needs to take a large part of the responsibility for this failure.   He (his agent) forced the hand of JB to get paid immediately.  He chose to play Fortnite until all hours and play nip with his pals rather than spend every waking hour improving his game.  Yes, a massive black eye for the Sabres and surely a factor in the decision to cut ties with JB, but not an indictment of the entire organization.  

Didn’t we trade for Larsson,... and Armia who? We had nothing to do with his development.

We Tanked and it forced us to shove guy into roles they weren’t ready for.

[PerreaultForever]

15 minutes ago, Broken Ankles said:

Except for those that we do.  Larsson, Ullmark, McNabb, and Armia to name a few recent.  Just because a GM decides to move on from a player does not mean the development was not successful.  LA and Vegas benefitted from McNabbs development. It would appear that Borgen, Bryson and Murray are on the right track.  Casey needs to take a large part of the responsibility for this failure.   He (his agent) forced the hand of JB to get paid immediately.  He chose to play Fortnite until all hours and play nip with his pals rather than spend every waking hour improving his game.  Yes, a massive black eye for the Sabres and surely a factor in the decision to cut ties with JB, but not an indictment of the entire organization.  

I think it safe to say you can always name one success and one failure and so on but overall, in terms of aggregate numbers, we have either drafted poorly or developed poorly or more likely both. A decade of futility proves it. Several times we are supposed to have had a full cupboard of prospects and not many of them amounted to anything. Now, despite the failure, the cupboard is considered fairly empty.

JBot's hand was only forced (in all instances) because the team allows it, the culture allows it. The ill planned desperation rather than following a proper building plan. There are also no consequences in this organization for bad behaviour, be it fortnite playing or partying or whatever. No leadership, no accountability, it's a losing culture. Having grown up on a Sabres team in the 70s that was very different from that in all ways its very very frustrating. 

As for the successes, 2 of those blossomed outside this organization and who's to say Larsson (a very average player) wouldn't have been better developed elsewhere? Ullmark, I give you that cause they kept him in the minors so he might be ok. Not convinced he's a #1 or will ever be consistent, but it's possible. Borgen etc, well lets talk about them when they make the NHL. 

6 minutes ago, SwampD said:

Didn’t we trade for Larsson,... and Armia who? We had nothing to do with his development.

We Tanked and it forced us to shove guy into roles they weren’t ready for.

We tanked, but also traded away draft picks and players like Armia. The tank was ok, the rebuild was rushed and flawed.

[SwampD]

We had no part in Armia’s development.

 

and the Tank was an epic mistake.

[PerreaultForever]

1 hour ago, SwampD said:

We had no part in Armia’s development.

 

and the Tank was an epic mistake.

People say that, it feels good, but would you prefer we had Lawson Crouse instead of Jack Eichel? 

Okay, we might have got a better player. It was a really really really good draft. A smarter GM would have loaded up on first round picks. I imagine the Bruins would still be playing if they'd used their 3 picks on Barzal, Connor and Chabot instead of Zboril, DeBrusk and Senyshyn (or DeBrusk and 2 of the others). 

If you look back at the 2013-14 roster it's not very good. It's not good in 2014-15 and not all that different. It's slightly better in 2015-16 and after that it's just a whole lot of shuffling and juggling and still no playoffs. 

I do not believe the problem rests with the tank but rather with 2011 and the new ownership. Maybe it started when they foolishly threw all that money at Leino and Ehrhoff demonstrating to agents all over that they were chumps or maybe it was that fancy new carpet and locker room designed to "attract players to Buffalo" but maybe just spoiled the ones there and made it into a lazy country club. I dunno, I can only guess, but it wasn't the tank, it was a collossal shift that came from the top.

[LGR4GM]

7 hours ago, SwampD said:

We had no part in Armia’s development.

 

and the Tank was an epic mistake.

It was not. The rebuild was bad because of poor decisions both from Murray and Botterill. 

5 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

People say that, it feels good, but would you prefer we had Lawson Crouse instead of Jack Eichel? 

Okay, we might have got a better player. It was a really really really good draft. A smarter GM would have loaded up on first round picks. I imagine the Bruins would still be playing if they'd used their 3 picks on Barzal, Connor and Chabot instead of Zboril, DeBrusk and Senyshyn (or DeBrusk and 2 of the others). 

If you look back at the 2013-14 roster it's not very good. It's not good in 2014-15 and not all that different. It's slightly better in 2015-16 and after that it's just a whole lot of shuffling and juggling and still no playoffs. 

I do not believe the problem rests with the tank but rather with 2011 and the new ownership. Maybe it started when they foolishly threw all that money at Leino and Ehrhoff demonstrating to agents all over that they were chumps or maybe it was that fancy new carpet and locker room designed to "attract players to Buffalo" but maybe just spoiled the ones there and made it into a lazy country club. I dunno, I can only guess, but it wasn't the tank, it was a collossal shift that came from the top.

The problem rests with over a decade of poor and stupid draft decisions ranging from trading a first for Lehner instead of getting Boeser to drafting Johnson instead of Kaliyev et al. 

If this team could find even 1 player per draft outside of round 1, they would be a much better team regardless of the tank. They. DO. NOT. DRAFT. WELL.