Casey Mittelstadt, what should we make of him

[JohnC]

7 minutes ago, Zamboni said:

I still view him as young and trying to figure out the “pro life” side of things. In my opinion, he has too much talent to not make it as a full time NHLer. Even if it’s a “3rd liner”. To me that would be successful if he developed into a full-time NHLer. Some people put so much freaking weight on his draft position. I’m not going to do that. I just want to see him make the NHL and have a nice long career. And some people put so much freaking weight on what he does in his off time like going to carnivals or being on a friends boat taking photos and putting them on his Instagram. I’m not going to do that. It’s just a young man having fun with friends… Not a Big freaking deal. To me. 
 

“ But but but it’s an indication of this, it means this, it means that if he’s doing this, it must mean this it must mean that”

.... yawn.

You are avoiding the obvious traits that distinguishes success and failure in a player at the NHL level. It's not only talent. Even the third and fourth line muckers at the at the NHL level were dominant players at the lower levels of hockey. It's when you get to the NHL and a little below where the attributes of competitiveness and work ethic determine success. In hockey more than many other sports if the standard isn't consistent intensity the efforts are predictably futile.  

I have not given up on players such as Mitts and Alex Nylander. Both players intermittently exhibit flashes of eye popping skill. But in between those short intervals of highlight plays there are long periods of invisible play. Don't discount this extended period of lax play as being unimportant in assessing a player. 

Mitts has more offensive talent than Gergs or Larsson. Yet both players are significantly greater factors on the ice because their intense level of play is constant. You can't say that about Mitts. 

I'm hoping Mitts comes to camp in tremendous shape and with a renewed drive. But I'm not confident that even if he does it will be sustainable because his makeup that he has so far exhibited indicates otherwise. I'm hoping that he proves many of his skeptics wrong but that is not to say that I am not very wary about his prospects.  

[inkman]

1 hour ago, thewookie1 said:

I disagree fervently, he's a former 8th OA pick and under 22 years of age with skill, as seen in the WJC. I don't expect a team to bend over backwards to acquire him but he'd still retain value via potential and his theoretical upside versus what he has done thus far.

Still think he's only worth a 4th round pick.  You find a GM that'll give you more, you jump on it.  He's garbage.  Watching him play against professional players in both the NHL and AHL has cemented my opinion.  He simply doesn't have what it takes to be a professional hockey player.  

[Cascade Youth]

4 minutes ago, inkman said:

Still think he's only worth a 4th round pick.  You find a GM that'll give you more, you jump on it.  He's garbage.  Watching him play against professional players in both the NHL and AHL has cemented my opinion.  He simply doesn't have what it takes to be a professional hockey player.  

Agreed.  At this point he is a shootout specialist and that’s it.  He can’t play against actual defenders.

[SwampD]

41 minutes ago, inkman said:

Still think he's only worth a 4th round pick.  You find a GM that'll give you more, you jump on it.  He's garbage.  Watching him play against professional players in both the NHL and AHL has cemented my opinion.  He simply doesn't have what it takes to be a professional hockey player.  

What other 20/21 year olds are you comparing him to to be so sure of this?

Edited August 19, 2020 by SwampD

[Taro T]

8 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

Immaturity and lacking a work ethic is not a new thing when describing Sabres young prospects/players. It is in fact an all too frequent recurrent theme. Casey came in as a guy told he was going to be great and was slotted in to be instantly great and nowhere along the way does anyone seem to have thought he needed to be taught a work ethic first. So did we ruin him or was he never going to be anything who can say for sure but he definitely needs to change if he is to be anything at all.

Dahlin came in as a hard worker and dedicated player wanting to develop. Is he still? I dunno. If we ruin him you really got to wonder.

and lastly Cozens, I know that guy has all the competitive attitude and work ethic you can ask for in any player. If we ruin him there's no hope ever.

Has Dahlin given any indication at all that he isn't a hard worker &/or has been ruined?

And have not given up on Mittelstadt yet either.  Connolly took a long time to finally bear down and get it, but he did figure it out. 

Couturier, another 8 overall pick that excelled at the WJC11 in Buffalo that made the jump to the NHL in his 2nd post draft season had highs of 15 goals and 39 points his 1st 6 seasons & then finally broke out in his 7th season.

Niedereiter, another WJC11 standout, wasn't even in the NHL his 3rd pro season but has settled in very nicely as a 2nd line winger.

Totally get people being down on Mitts, but still expect he has a legit shot at being a 2/3C. 

[LGR4GM]

19 hours ago, Drag0nDan said:

Yeah - big red flag.  I haven't benched in over a year and I can do that easy.  Does this guy even lift bro?

I'll admit I'm newer to looking at hockey analytics in general, and i think drafting players is even more difficult to evaluate based on massively different levels of competition- but what was it about Mittelstadt that they liked so much more than a Thomas, Vilardi, Suzuki from the same class?  

I wish I could talk about this but since 2014, there is only 1 draft that I barely spent time on. The 2017 draft was something I have limited knowledge of and all I can guess is that it was the perceived skill and the CHL bias all combined. 

Not being physically ready doesn't bother me. NHL prospects are often not physically ready (Hughes this past year). Some kids are very driven and talented but they don't understand the physical requirements of the next league up so they don't have that hardcore gym thing going. Some guys grow late, Jarvis might be one of these, and they add 2-3 inches in a couple years so they go from 5'10" 170lbs to 6' 170lbs and now they are "weaker".  Strength is the easiest thing to add to a prospect if you have a motivated prospect. 

Just now, Taro T said:

Has Dahlin given any indication at all that he isn't a hard worker &/or has been ruined?

And have not given up on Mittelstadt yet either.  Connolly took a long time to finally bear down and get it, but he did figure it out. 

Couturier, another 8 overall pick that excelled at the WJC11 in Buffalo that made the jump to the NHL in his 2nd post draft season had highs of 15 goals and 39 points his 1st 6 seasons & then finally broke out in his 7th season.

Niedereiter, another WJC11 standout, wasn't even in the NHL his 3rd pro season but has settled in very nicely as a 2nd line winger.

Totally get people being down on Mitts, but still expect he has a legit shot at being a 2/3C. 

Considering Dahlin was better in year 2, took missing the playoffs hard, and basically sounds ready to go through walls to win... no. You don't add 10lbs of muscle in an offseason because you are lazy and don't work hard. 

[Drag0nDan]

5 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Has Dahlin given any indication at all that he isn't a hard worker &/or has been ruined?

And have not given up on Mittelstadt yet either.  Connolly took a long time to finally bear down and get it, but he did figure it out. 

Couturier, another 8 overall pick that excelled at the WJC11 in Buffalo that made the jump to the NHL in his 2nd post draft season had highs of 15 goals and 39 points his 1st 6 seasons & then finally broke out in his 7th season.

Niedereiter, another WJC11 standout, wasn't even in the NHL his 3rd pro season but has settled in very nicely as a 2nd line winger.

Totally get people being down on Mitts, but still expect he has a legit shot at being a 2/3C. 

I found this pre-draft scouting report that lists his comparable as derick brassard.  That's pre-draft. 

https://www.thehockeyprospector.com/11-casey-mittelstadt-scouting-report/

At this point I'd be super happy with Derick Brassard.  I mean, he's a 2C upgrade as of today sadly enough.  

[JohnC]

24 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Has Dahlin given any indication at all that he isn't a hard worker &/or has been ruined?

And have not given up on Mittelstadt yet either.  Connolly took a long time to finally bear down and get it, but he did figure it out. 

Couturier, another 8 overall pick that excelled at the WJC11 in Buffalo that made the jump to the NHL in his 2nd post draft season had highs of 15 goals and 39 points his 1st 6 seasons & then finally broke out in his 7th season.

Niedereiter, another WJC11 standout, wasn't even in the NHL his 3rd pro season but has settled in very nicely as a 2nd line winger.

Totally get people being down on Mitts, but still expect he has a legit shot at being a 2/3C. 

I also haven't given up on Mitts. But if he doesn't come into camp in impeccable shape and during camp play with a last chance attitude of desperation that so far hasn't been exhibited then his future with this franchise is unlikely. It's not uncommon that some young players don't fully gain traction in the organization they start with. They never seem to get on track and live up to their lofty expectation. Sometimes the best course of action to jolt them out of their lassitude is to be traded and given a fresh start somewhere else. If Mitts can turn it around it would give this flailing team a surprising lift. This offseason and training camp will determine what his course will be in the NHL. I'm wishing for the best but preparing for the least. 

[SwampD]

31 minutes ago, JohnC said:

I also haven't given up on Mitts. But if he doesn't come into camp in impeccable shape and during camp play with a last chance attitude of desperation that so far hasn't been exhibited then his future with this franchise is unlikely. It's not uncommon that some young players don't fully gain traction in the organization they start with. They never seem to get on track and live up to their lofty expectation. Sometimes the best course of action to jolt them out of their lassitude is to be traded and given a fresh start somewhere else. If Mitts can turn it around it would give this flailing team a surprising lift. This offseason and training camp will determine what his course will be in the NHL. I'm wishing for the best but preparing for the least. 

And if it’s not this offseason, it will be the next one,... or maybe the one after that.

[JohnC]

5 minutes ago, SwampD said:

And if it’s not this offseason, it will be the next one,... or maybe the one after that.

You are way off the mark. If he doesn't establish himself with this team and organization this year he will fade away and be an afterthought wearing another uniform, assuming he can find any other buyers willing to buy from the bargain bin. 

[SwampD]

Just now, JohnC said:

You are way off the mark. If he doesn't establish himself with this team and organization this year he will fade away and be an afterthought wearing another uniform, assuming he can find any other buyers willing to buy from the bargain bin. 

You might be right about another uniform.

Briere was 24 before he showed that he was worthy of the NHL.

The Tank has completely ***** with our development expectations.

[JohnC]

1 minute ago, SwampD said:

You might be right about another uniform.

Briere was 24 before he showed that he was worthy of the NHL.

The Tank has completely ***** with our development expectations.

Briere might have been a late bloomer but he was always a full effort player. His competitive makeup was much higher than Mitts. The shorter guy had a natural passion that the taller guy doesn't have. That's the issue that troubles me the most about Mitts. His motor seems to be tuned low. I'm rooting for him but not investing in him. 

[Drag0nDan]

8 minutes ago, JohnC said:

Briere might have been a late bloomer but he was always a full effort player. His competitive makeup was much higher than Mitts. The shorter guy had a natural passion that the taller guy doesn't have. That's the issue that troubles me the most about Mitts. His motor seems to be tuned low. I'm rooting for him but not investing in him. 

Yeah - even a guy with even higher expectations in bennett has become a role player in the NHL.  Mitts doesn't backcheck, play defense, kill penalties or do any of the stuff you want out of a back end roster guy.  His only skills translate to top 6, but he stinks.  Bad on the dot, doesn't know where to be, doesn't score.  Our PP unit with him on it had to be one of the worst in the league - they'd struggle to even gain the zone let alone maintain possession. 

[PerreaultForever]

6 hours ago, Curt said:

I don’t think a lack of maturity and work ethic is something endemic among Sabres prospects.  I honestly think that’s it’s just Nylander and Mitts.

I do think the organization needs to continue to boost their overall intensity though.  That’s why I want to see most players brought in to of the intense/gritty/competitive variety.

I think you're forgetting some things. This idea came up when Eichel was drafted. It's come up on Reinhart (and not just by me, by lots of people especially in his early seasons), it came up in the tandem bike year and all the talk of the divided locker room. Definitely with Nylander and Mitts as you said. Lots of other guys who failed to show a lack of desire to take it up a notch like Bailey, Baptiste. I can't think of many Sabres prospects who are or were considered hard workers or extra effort guys.

The Sabres have not been seen as a hard working extra effort team since Nolan's lunch bucket era. In league wide terms we are usually seen as a team of talent ready to break out but never does and generally a soft team that doesn't handle adversity and lacks leadership. In a word, we fold when the going gets tough. Lately, thats gone even worse with most commentators outside the Buffalo area just shaking their heads and saying things like "it's Buffalo, who knows what they're doing."  I don't like this any more than you do, but it's a fact.

 

[PerreaultForever]

5 hours ago, Xzy89c said:

How do you know that about Cozens?  U do not have any idea

I mentioned in an older thread my daughter was in high school with him when he attended the hockey academy in Abbotsford. Lots of the hockey guys walk on water there and get idolized and live that whole jocks are king lifestyle if you know what I mean, but Cozens didn't. He was hockey hockey hockey. Extra workouts, extra coaching, basically invisible in school just hockey hockey hockey. He is a dedicated athlete dedicated to being the best.

What he does at this level when the money rolls in, I have no idea. 

[PerreaultForever]

2 hours ago, Taro T said:

Has Dahlin given any indication at all that he isn't a hard worker &/or has been ruined?

And have not given up on Mittelstadt yet either. 

I don't know on Dahlin. That's what I said. His play trailed off a little but it could be a step backward before a leap forward, we have to wait and see. We do have a history of over hyped D men being rushed and developed poorly but I certainly haven't given up on him  and still think he will be an allstar.

As for Mitts, I haven't given up totally, but my expectation is low. Just don't see the work ethic or effort. If he'd done better in Rochester I might be more optimistic but right now I have little hope for him or Tage. The prospect cupboard as a whole doesn't inspire me aside from Cozens and Lukkonen. 

[7+6=13]

We skate 4 players with the ability to perform offensively.  Then we expect a young player to come in and develop in that situation?

 

[irregularly irregular]

On 8/18/2020 at 9:40 AM, dudacek said:

I think it’s less motivation and more maturity.

Casey is a rink rat who loves hockey and beating guys in hockey. Casey is more of a kid than a lot of his peers and has never really had to work in order to beat people.

This break is a big crossroads for him. Is he golfing with his buddies and playing Fortnite until 2 am? Or is he running, lifting and watching tape?

Time to leave childhood behind and become a pro.

I made similar statements about Jack a couple years ago when he was given the C and was not coming close to acting like a captain with his body language, lack of hustle and not caring about the team. I have a sneaking suspicion that ROR didn't think much of it either, but that is a story for another thread. I'm happy to say Jack has proven me wrong and I am much appreciative of his doing so. 

It is time for Casey to step up. If he is in the Sabres training camp, he better be in the best shape of his career and ready to show that he is a first round talent or he can be shuttled off to Rochester before the end of the first practice. 

[Curt]

3 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

I think you're forgetting some things. This idea came up when Eichel was drafted. It's come up on Reinhart (and not just by me, by lots of people especially in his early seasons), it came up in the tandem bike year and all the talk of the divided locker room. Definitely with Nylander and Mitts as you said. Lots of other guys who failed to show a lack of desire to take it up a notch like Bailey, Baptiste. I can't think of many Sabres prospects who are or were considered hard workers or extra effort guys.

The Sabres have not been seen as a hard working extra effort team since Nolan's lunch bucket era. In league wide terms we are usually seen as a team of talent ready to break out but never does and generally a soft team that doesn't handle adversity and lacks leadership. In a word, we fold when the going gets tough. Lately, thats gone even worse with most commentators outside the Buffalo area just shaking their heads and saying things like "it's Buffalo, who knows what they're doing."  I don't like this any more than you do, but it's a fact.

Ok, I can see your point a bit more.  It’s not without merit.

Eichel I think is totally fine.  He maybe lacked a little maturity at first, but he was 19-20 so, whatever.  I’ve never doubted his work ethic and he just keeps getting feistier with age.

Reinhart, I get the impression works hard enough, but maybe could give a bit more.  Maybe it’s just his style of play though.

Dahlin, I get the impression is a lot like you described Cozens.  A pretty low key guy who is just hockey hockey hockey 24/7.  He can have a bit of an edge to his game too.  I think we’ll see more of that as his body develops more and he puts on weight.

I’m hopeful that guys like Cozens, Asplund, Pekar, Borgen, Samuelsson, and hopefully the upcoming #8 pick can join the team over the next couple years as guys who can bring more of that hardworking type game.

Edited August 19, 2020 by Curt

[PerreaultForever]

8 hours ago, Curt said:

Ok, I can see your point a bit more.  It’s not without merit.

Eichel I think is totally fine.  He maybe lacked a little maturity at first, but he was 19-20 so, whatever.  I’ve never doubted his work ethic and he just keeps getting feistier with age.

Reinhart, I get the impression works hard enough, but maybe could give a bit more.  Maybe it’s just his style of play though.

Dahlin, I get the impression is a lot like you described Cozens.  A pretty low key guy who is just hockey hockey hockey 24/7.  He can have a bit of an edge to his game too.  I think we’ll see more of that as his body develops more and he puts on weight.

I’m hopeful that guys like Cozens, Asplund, Pekar, Borgen, Samuelsson, and hopefully the upcoming #8 pick can join the team over the next couple years as guys who can bring more of that hardworking type game.

Eichel does seem to be fine now I agree totally. Reinhart I'm not so sure. I cannot forget that Detroit game where he looked at the clock and quit on the play. If he'd done something like that on the Bruins he'd have been out of the line up and maybe out of town. Here, not much happened. I'm not worried about Dahlin (yet).

I am hopeful for Cozens big time. Asplund looked decent from what we saw but I don't know enough about him to assess his work ethic or potential. Pekar certainly has the right kind of game not sure he has the talent to be a pro, fingers crossed. Borgen I would think it's time for him to become a Sabre or not. We certainly could use a little more solid ruggedness in out D.  Samuelsson too soon to tell but also hopeful. That is pretty much the list. Wait and see how many of them take the step up. 

[Drag0nDan]

7 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

Eichel does seem to be fine now I agree totally. Reinhart I'm not so sure. I cannot forget that Detroit game where he looked at the clock and quit on the play. If he'd done something like that on the Bruins he'd have been out of the line up and maybe out of town. Here, not much happened. I'm not worried about Dahlin (yet).

I am hopeful for Cozens big time. Asplund looked decent from what we saw but I don't know enough about him to assess his work ethic or potential. Pekar certainly has the right kind of game not sure he has the talent to be a pro, fingers crossed. Borgen I would think it's time for him to become a Sabre or not. We certainly could use a little more solid ruggedness in out D.  Samuelsson too soon to tell but also hopeful. That is pretty much the list. Wait and see how many of them take the step up. 

What about cozens with jack?  Lets you move reinhart down to line 2 to help drive that line with whomever we get as a 2C.  

[JohnC]

31 minutes ago, Drag0nDan said:

What about cozens with jack?  Lets you move reinhart down to line 2 to help drive that line with whomever we get as a 2C.  

Why tamper with moving Reinhart away from the Jack line where he has helped to establish a high yield first line? I like Reinhart a lot. He is one of the few consistent scoring threats on this team and one of the best instinctive passers we have. The primary reason I want him to remain on the first line is I don't consider him the type of player who can drive a line. So if he is one of the more productive scorers on the Jack line then why put him in a position to be less successful?

If the second line is going to be upgraded it will have to be done by bringing in one or two players from the market. Diluting the first line by moving Reinhart off of it would not in my estimation be a good move. 

[OhMyDahlin]

On 8/18/2020 at 3:58 PM, Let's Go B-Lo said:

'Murican, playing at a 'Murican college not a Canadian playing in the CHL

No, it was his skill set...multiple outlets had him as a top-5 talent in that draft.

[LGR4GM]

1 minute ago, OhMyDahlin said:

No, it was his skill set...multiple outlets had him as a top-5 talent in that draft.

I think his consensus ranking was 5. Casey got a big bump from the U18 tourney and learning that was a major reason I evaluate scouts and prospects different now. 

[Drag0nDan]

13 minutes ago, JohnC said:

Why tamper with moving Reinhart away from the Jack line where he has helped to establish a high yield first line? I like Reinhart a lot. He is one of the few consistent scoring threats on this team and one of the best instinctive passers we have. The primary reason I want him to remain on the first line is I don't consider him the type of player who can drive a line. So if he is one of the more productive scorers on the Jack line then why put him in a position to be less successful?

If the second line is going to be upgraded it will have to be done by bringing in one or two players from the market. Diluting the first line by moving Reinhart off of it would not in my estimation be a good move. 

Its fairly dependent on what the solution is at 2C.  But i don't think putting cozens on line 3 with thompson and johannson is going to be very good for literally any of them.