So #8

[LGR4GM]

39 minutes ago, Andrew Amerk said:

So, are there any other analytics being used for prospective draft picks?

SEAL

Cohort comparisons

[Thorner]

12 hours ago, dudacek said:

Button's latest mock has Perfetti dropping to the Sabres

"The Anaheim Ducks need some young blood on the blueline and take defenceman Jake Sanderson. At seventh, winger Lucas Raymond fits the bill for the New Jersey Devils as a Mitch Marner clone for Jack Hughes or Nico Hischier.

Eighth is forward Cole Perfetti – a perfect left wing fit for Jack Eichel."

https://www.tsn.ca/alexis-lafreniere-and-new-york-rangers-headline-post-phase-2-mock-draft-1.1507293

With Pronman mocking Rossi to us, those are my ideal outcomes.

 

I wish he was a right wing, (particularly if Calgary DOES end up being the trade team and Gaudreau is involved, but either way) but I'd be happy with Perfetti. 

Olofsson would have to shift to the right side and hopefully we keep Reinhart. 

[IKnowPhysics]

There are so few defensemen in the top 15, that I can't help but wonder if there will be an early run.  And by early run, I mean two, not one, defensmen are selected before #8.

[LGR4GM]

24 minutes ago, Thorny said:

I wish he was a right wing, (particularly if Calgary DOES end up being the trade team and Gaudreau is involved, but either way) but I'd be happy with Perfetti. 

Olofsson would have to shift to the right side and hopefully we keep Reinhart. 

I wish there were a right shot close to Perfetti who is underrated... if only that player existed. 

7 minutes ago, IKnowPhysics said:

There are so few defensemen in the top 15, that I can't help but wonder if there will be an early run.  And by early run, I mean two, not one, defensmen are selected before #8.

Sanderson and Drysdale 

[Thorner]

11 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I wish there were a right shot close to Perfetti who is underrated... if only that player existed. 

l'd be good with them taking the kid from my hometown. 

I feel like we'll be picking between two of Holtz/Raymond/Sanderson, and then Lundell, and hopefully Jarvis is considered. 

I'd be good with Lundell, Jarvis in that order and I guess Raymond. Though I'm finding it difficult to be really excited about the guys who could be available. 

Rossi is the closest to exciting I guess. But I bet him, Perfetti and the obvious 3 forwards as well as Drysdale are gone. 

- - - 

I think I'm as excited to see their draft strategy and how they select players as I am to see who the specific players are. 

Edited August 15, 2020 by Thorny

[Andrew Amerk]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

SEAL

Cohort comparisons

***insert Kiss From A Rose gif***

[IKnowPhysics]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

Sanderson and Drysdale 

That would be the two, yes.

 

If that were to occur, then you'd have at least two of the following available, if Lafreniere, Byfield, and Stutzle are off the board: Raymond, Rossi, Perfetti, and Holtz.

Which means you would be guaranteed one of Raymond, Rossi, or Perfetti.  Nice.

 

[LGR4GM]

I don't believe Perfetti is going to be available at 8.

[Wyldnwoody44]

10 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

SEAL

[Sabres Fan in NS]

13 hours ago, MakeSabresGrr8Again said:

Where he is they might be.

Kind of, but I never go.

I have a grand supply of the shades, eh!!

13 hours ago, MakeSabresGrr8Again said:

Where he is they might be.

Kind of, but I never go.

I have a grand supply of the shades, eh!!

[IKnowPhysics]

5 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

I don't believe Perfetti is going to be available at 8.

The more you constrain the picks, the more certainty you get.  If the top three are gone, two defensmen are gone, and Perfetti is gone, then you get one of Rossi or Raymond.  Not bad at all.

We should commit information warfare on other teams' social media to ensure two defensemen are taken before us.

[dudacek]

@LGR4GM how does Lundell’s production fit into your modelling?

28 points in 44 games as an 18-year-old in Liiga seems better than his hype suggests. And he got 19 in 38 in the same league at 17

[French Collection]

2 hours ago, dudacek said:

@LGR4GM how does Lundell’s production fit into your modelling?

28 points in 44 games as an 18-year-old in Liiga seems better than his hype suggests. And he got 19 in 38 in the same league at 17

Barkov was 48/53 and 16/32 in the same league in his pre draft years.

 

[LGR4GM]

3 hours ago, dudacek said:

@LGR4GM how does Lundell’s production fit into your modelling?

28 points in 44 games as an 18-year-old in Liiga seems better than his hype suggests. And he got 19 in 38 in the same league at 17

Rakish does modeling, I do more deductive reasoning with numbers playing a role. 

My issue with Lundell is 1 of ceiling. He's almost guaranteed to be a 3rd center. His defensive game is superb...

[LGR4GM]

Lundell's concern is his overall production. He doesn't have a lot of primary points. You can take 8 of his assists away as secondary assists. Now looking back a year he did up his primary production but his goals basically stayed the same and that raises eyebrows for me. Keep in mind his production will always be deflated compared to other prospects because he is playing in a good men's league (Liiga). He should have been able to produce more as an 18 year old in Liga but he barely does. Now part of that is Liiga doesn't exactly produce tons of goals, I think on a smaller ice surface he could be better because his skating in terms of quickness and speed is average. He is like the actual center version of Reinhart, smart and excellent positioning. Lundell is the type of guy you want cohort comparisons for. This means you look at every NHL player from the Liiga and you rank those guys and then put Lundell in there as a percentile (so is he in the 70th percentile for guys who made it or is he in the 20th percentile). 

If you watch the tape/highlights/whatever you won't come away saying "wow he did that" you come away saying "huh not bad" which if I am drafting at 8th I hesitate at. He is the Safest pick you could make at 8th because I think his brain and skills are good enough to play a shutdown 3rd line center role and chip in some offense. His shot is okay, his passing is okay, his skating is okay, his reads and positioning are superb, his defensive game is divine. He was I think first in the ENTIRE Liiga in Corsi for % so that is insane. 

If you are taking Lundell you might get a 2c ROR light type of guy or you might get bigger better Larsson. He went really cold for long stretches this season in the goal scoring department from what I have read. Idk, I just worry there isn't enough offensive skill there to really propel him into a top 6 role. So the question is do you want an NHL player that has a high floor low ceiling or do you want to go for low floor high ceiling in someone else? 

Here are highlights you can see the brains

 

Edited August 15, 2020 by LGR4GM

[SwampD]

With that 15, he looks a little like Jack, in that there isn’t a lot of waisted motion in him generating speed, so he almost looks slow. For an 18 yo, his movement is very mature.

I wouldn’t be upset if he was our pick.

[LGR4GM]

2 minutes ago, SwampD said:

With that 15, he looks a little like Jack, in that there isn’t a lot of waisted motion in him generating speed, so he almost looks slow. For an 18 yo, his movement is very mature.

I wouldn’t be upset if he was our pick.

At about 2:45 you can watch him on a 2v1 break. He's not Eichel fast and that is fine but again what skills is he bringing along to your team? His speed is very average. 

 

Lundell will play in the Liiga again this coming season but he is very close to NHL ready. 

[SwampD]

2 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

At about 2:45 you can watch him on a 2v1 break. He's not Eichel fast and that is fine but again what skills is he bringing along to your team? His speed is very average. 

 

Lundell will play in the Liiga again this coming season but he is very close to NHL ready. 

I find this wording strange. If someone is good, they are good. I don’t need flash.

[Thorner]

Great stuff @LGR4GM 

I absolutely love the level of certainty Lundell would provide to the centre ice position. I just keep thinking about how he would fit into our team makeup, and how tough a team with this centre spine would be to play against:

Eichel

Cozens

Lundell 

Larsson

...with a Monahan like trade this summer, we go from weak at the most important position in hockey to young, deep, diversified, defensively sound and difficult to play against once they mature a bit.

Imagine the matchups Lundell can free up for Cozens by taking tough minutes, a player already likely capable of developing into someone who can play tough minutes. What *slightly* less responsibility would allow for a player with Cozens two way game. NM if we still have Larsson..

We'd be a matchup nightmare. Maybe Lundell's reasonable production keeps that cap hit down. 

 

Edited August 15, 2020 by Thorny

[Thorner]

Perfetti is expected to transition to the wing at the NHL level, correct? 

I think Lundell is my preferred choice after Rossi. 

[LGR4GM]

14 hours ago, Thorny said:

Perfetti is expected to transition to the wing at the NHL level, correct? 

I think Lundell is my preferred choice after Rossi. 

It has been debated among scouts where Perfetti will end up, center or wing. 

[Two or less]

On 8/15/2020 at 8:36 AM, LGR4GM said:

I don't believe Perfetti is going to be available at 8.

I have a tough time believing he would drop past 4, let alone make it all the way to 8th.

[LGR4GM]

19 hours ago, SwampD said:

I find this wording strange. If someone is good, they are good. I don’t need flash.

It isn't about flash but about the skill set they will bring to your team. Lundell brings a certain skill set and I would prefer the Sabres a different skill set. 

[MakeSabresGrr8Again]

10 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

It isn't about flash but about the skill set they will bring to your team. Lundell brings a certain skill set and I would prefer the Sabres a different skill set. 

So , we don't want/need another ROR, a Bergeron, or Couturier? Then why all the talk about Cirelli?

Or don't you think Lundell will meet those standards in a couple years?

[Two or less]

21 hours ago, French Collection said:

Barkov was 48/53 and 16/32 in the same league in his pre draft years.

 

I don't have the numbers for Barkov but Lundell averaged 16 minutes a game. He also averages above 3 shots a game. Besides his defensive awareness and high hockey IQ, the other nice asset Lundell brings is he has a very nice shot. However, as it's been mentioned here, he is not a playmaker. He's a shooter first mentality type player.

I like him more then Rossi.