So #8

[LGR4GM]

6 hours ago, IKnowPhysics said:

Let 's get this thread moving.

Highlights from the NHL Central Scouting's top ten North American Skaters:

#1 Alex Lefreniere (LW)

Date of birth: Oct 11, 2001
Height/Weight: 6'1" / 192lbs
Born: Saint-Eustache, QC, CAN
Shoots: L

2019-2020 regular season stats: 35G-77A-112P in 52GP for Rimouski Oceanic (QMJHL)

NHL equivalency: 50P

#2 Quinton Byfield (C)

 

Date of birth: Aug 19, 2002
Height/Weight: 6'4" / 214lbs
Born: Newmarket, ON, CAN
Shoots: L

2019-2020 regular season stats: 32G-50A-82P in 45GP for Sudbury Wolves (OHL)

NHL equivalency: 48P

#3 Jamie Drysdale (D)

Date of birth: Apr 08, 2002
Height/Weight: 5'11" / 170lbs
Born: Toronto, ON, CAN
Shoots: R

2019-2020 regular season stats: 9G-38A-47P in 49GP for Erie Otters (OHL)

NHL equivalency: 25P

#4 Jake Sanderson (D)

 

Date of birth: Jul 08, 2002
Height/Weight: 6'1" / 185lbs
Born: Whitefish, MT, USA
Shoots: L

2019-2020 regular season stats: 7G-22A-29P in 47GP for US National U18 Team C (USDP) and 2G-12A-14P in 19GP for USNTDP Juniors

NHL equivalency (estimated): 12-20P

#5 Cole Perfetti (C)

 

Date of birth: Jan 01, 2002
Height/Weight: 5'10" / 185lbs
Born: Whitby, ON, CAN
Shoots: L

2019-2020 regular season stats: 37G-74A-111P in 61GP for Sagniaw Spirit (OHL)

NHL equivalency: 48P

#6 Marco Rossi (C)

 

Date of birth: Sep 23, 2001
Height/Weight: 5'9" / 179lbs
Born: Feldkirch, AUT
Shoots: L

2019-2020 regular season stats: 39G-81A-120P in 56GP for Ottawa 67's (OHL)

NHL equivalency: 57P

 

 

#7 Jack Quinn (RW)

 

Date of birth: Sep 19, 2001
Height/Weight: 5'11" / 176lbs
Born: Cobden, ON, CAN
Shoots: R

2019-2020 regular season stats: 52G-37A-89P in 62GP for Ottawa 67's (OHL)

NHL equivalency: 38P

#8 Kaiden Guhle (D)

 

Date of birth: Jan 18, 2002
Height/Weight: 6'3" / 187lbs
Born: Sherwood Park, AB, CAN
Shoots: L

2019-2020 regular season stats: 11G-29A-40P in 45GP for Prince Albert Raiders (WHL)

NHL equivalency: 17P

 

#9 Braden Schenider (D)

 

Date of birth: Sep 20, 2001
Height/Weight: 6'2" / 209lbs
Born: Prince Albert, SK, CAN
Shoots: R

2019-2020 regular season stats: 7G-35A-42P in 60GP for Sudbury Wolves (WHL)

NHL equivalency: 17P

 

#10 Dawson Mercer (RW)

 

Date of birth: Oct 27, 2001
Height/Weight: 6'0" / 179lbs
Born: Carbonear, NL, CAN
Shoots: R

2019-2020 combined regular season stats: 24G-36A-60P in 42GP for Drummondville and Chicoutimi (QMJHL)

NHL equivalency: 33P

 

 

Central Scouting remains atrocious. At least they see Mercer is good.

[IKnowPhysics]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

Central Scouting remains atrocious. At least they see Mercer is good.

Yep.  They don't exactly correlate to any of the composite rankings.  I'll have an updated chart sometime tomorrow.

[LabattBlue]

 I only want Rossi, if we also can draft Martini in a later round.  

[steveoath]

9 minutes ago, LabattBlue said:

 I only want Rossi, if we also can draft Martini in a later round.  

[Curt]

16 hours ago, IKnowPhysics said:

Composite rankings including the top 15 players from five different sources plus CSS, NHLe, and NHLe ranks for forwards and defensemen:

Where would Marat Khushnutdinov rank here?  His omission makes me sad (and hopeful that he might be there at #38).  I think he is a stud.

Edited August 14, 2020 by Curt

[LGR4GM]

17 minutes ago, Curt said:

Where would Marat Kushnutdinov rank here?  His omission makes me sad (and hopeful that he might be there at #38).  I think he is a stud.

[Zamboni]

Last name too long ... disqualified 

[rakish]

29 minutes ago, Curt said:

Where would Marat Khushnutdinov rank here?  His omission makes me sad (and hopeful that he might be there at #38).  I think he is a stud.

From eliteprospects.com:

Ranked #53 by ELITEPROSPECTS.COM

Ranked #34 by FUTURE CONSIDERATIONS

Ranked #55 by TSN/CRAIG BUTTON

Ranked #41 by MCKEEN'S HOCKEY

Ranked #12 by NHL CENTRAL SCOUTING (EU Skaters)

Ranked #35 by TSN/McKenzie

 

50/50 he's there at 38?

[Curt]

7 minutes ago, Zamboni said:

Last name too long ... disqualified 

 

12 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I just wanna hear RJ pronounce it once.

[dudacek]

Button's latest mock has Perfetti dropping to the Sabres

"The Anaheim Ducks need some young blood on the blueline and take defenceman Jake Sanderson. At seventh, winger Lucas Raymond fits the bill for the New Jersey Devils as a Mitch Marner clone for Jack Hughes or Nico Hischier.

Eighth is forward Cole Perfetti – a perfect left wing fit for Jack Eichel."

https://www.tsn.ca/alexis-lafreniere-and-new-york-rangers-headline-post-phase-2-mock-draft-1.1507293

With Pronman mocking Rossi to us, those are my ideal outcomes.

 

[MakeSabresGrr8Again]

1 hour ago, Curt said:

 

I just wanna hear RJ pronounce it once.

Better yet....Ray.

[LGR4GM]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

Button's latest mock has Perfetti dropping to the Sabres

"The Anaheim Ducks need some young blood on the blueline and take defenceman Jake Sanderson. At seventh, winger Lucas Raymond fits the bill for the New Jersey Devils as a Mitch Marner clone for Jack Hughes or Nico Hischier.

Eighth is forward Cole Perfetti – a perfect left wing fit for Jack Eichel."

https://www.tsn.ca/alexis-lafreniere-and-new-york-rangers-headline-post-phase-2-mock-draft-1.1507293

With Pronman mocking Rossi to us, those are my ideal outcomes.

 

Lol we have the perfect lw for Eichel in Skinner. Also, I think Perfetti goes to Detroit

[dudacek]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

Lol we have the perfect lw for Eichel in Skinner. Also, I think Perfetti goes to Detroit

Perfetti could play catch with Jack in a way Skinner never will.

Jack would score 50 if Perfetti's game translates. He's got Reino vision with better 1-on-1 skills and a better shot.

[IKnowPhysics]

20 hours ago, sabresparaavida said:

So Brendan Brisson had an NHLe of 58, highest in the draft, and he's not getting talked about in the top 15. I don't know anything about him, but he must have produced, what's the limitations to his game that's pushing him down? Is he an overager?

 

15 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

He plays in the USHL which means I few things. I don't believe his NHL e is that high. Ushl has like .29 multiplier. He's more like 28 points. 

 

4 hours ago, Curt said:

Where would Marat Khushnutdinov rank here?  His omission makes me sad (and hopeful that he might be there at #38).  I think he is a stud.

Updated chart below, now with ranges on the NHLe based on the standard deviation of the conversion factors from eight different sources (not every league has eight conversion factors).  The problem with the USHL and some other leagues are too few players joining the NHL directly, causing wild variation in the traditional NHLe calculation methods because of small sample size.  Some folks have used the newer Wilson method to calculate the jump to an intermediate league and then to the NHL (this is harder and more complicated), but it seems to work decent enough.

Brisson, because of the wild difference of opinion on the conversion factor for the USHL now has a wide spread on his NHLe, and this uncertainty is somewhat represented in his middling ranking.

Specifically to investigate options for the #8 pick, the chart I created only took included any player that made it into the Top 15 on any of the rankings below. Players that didn't get ranked that high by anyone didn't make the cut, including Marat Khusahfjdlsagjsdflgjlhuroewhrwejrnjekwnrweifgdsfdsdfsnfdov.  I also updated some math on the composite rankings, counting any non-ranking as #32 for averaging, then re-ordering the composite.

 

Edited August 14, 2020 by IKnowPhysics

[LabattBlue]

7 hours ago, steveoath said:

She was quite the sex symbol in her prime.  ?

 

 

 

 

[Sabres Fan in NS]

EHLERS!!

(sighthing)

?

I would give The Peg a lot for him, including #8.

 

Edited August 14, 2020 by New Scotland (NS)
I still don't type very goodly atoll ...

[MakeSabresGrr8Again]

2 hours ago, New Scotland (NS) said:

EHLERS!!

(sighthing)

?

I would give The Peg a lot for him, including #8.

 

I'd be willing to bet that you can't just pass by the Sunglass Hut at the mall, lol.

[Andrew Amerk]

9 hours ago, MakeSabresGrr8Again said:

Better yet....Ray.

Better yet...a drunk guy in the 300’s on a Tuesday night. 

28 minutes ago, MakeSabresGrr8Again said:

I'd be willing to bet that you can't just pass by the Sunglass Hut at the mall, lol.

Malls are open now?

[MakeSabresGrr8Again]

2 minutes ago, Andrew Amerk said:

Better yet...a drunk guy in the 300’s on a Tuesday night. 

Malls are open now?

Where he is they might be.

[IKnowPhysics]

6 hours ago, IKnowPhysics said:

 

Finally sitting down to actually sift theough this.  For the #8 pick...

Obvious: Lafreniere (1.0), Byfield (2.8), and Stutzle (3.4) are all basically guaranteed to be gone.  If for some reason they're not gone, that's a no brainer decision.  Almost not worth thinking about.

That mathematically leaves at least one of the following players to be available at 8:

Lucas Raymond (LW/RW, 5.0, NHLe 27-51)

Jamie Drysdale (D, 5.2, NHLe 12-18)

Marcus Rossi (C, 6.6, NHLe 41-61)

Cole Perfetti (C, 6.8, NHLe 34-52)

Alexander Holtz (RW, 8.2, NHLe 18-27)

Immediate impacts: I think Raymond, Rossi, and Perfetti each could potentially make the team this year in sheltered roles, especially Rossi.  Rossi and Perfetti have maxed out in the OHL and are too young to go to the AHL.  Drysdale would likely benefit from another year in juniors and is too young to go to the AHL.  Raymond and and Holtz would likely benefit from staying in the SHL another year (they could play in the AHL, though too).

[Andrew Amerk]

So, analytics is only advanced enough to project how many points a prospective player should score in the NHL?

Doesn't seem effective enough to account for other contributions. 

Edited August 15, 2020 by Andrew Amerk

[Curt]

14 minutes ago, IKnowPhysics said:

Lucas Raymond (LW/RW, 5.0, NHLe 27-51)

You used Stutzle’s NHLe numbers in place of Raymond’s here.  Raymond’s are much lower (12-18).

[Curt]

16 minutes ago, Andrew Amerk said:

So, analytics is only advanced enough to project how many points a prospective player should score in the NHL?

Doesn't seem effective enough to account for other contributions. 

I mean, NHLe is a points projection system, so yes, it projects only points.  It doesn’t claim to do anything else.  It’s useful, but not all encompassing.

NHLe is not the only analytics thing out there.  Analytics is anything that you do with hockey numbers, so it could be anything that you have numbers for.

Edited August 15, 2020 by Curt

[Andrew Amerk]

2 minutes ago, Curt said:

I mean, NHLe is a points projection system, so yes, it projects only points.  It doesn’t claim to do anything else.  It’s useful, but not all encompassing.

NHLe is not the only analytics thing out there.  Analytics is anything that you do with hockey numbers, so it could be anything that you have numbers for.

So, are there any other analytics being used for prospective draft picks?

[Curt]

16 minutes ago, Andrew Amerk said:

So, are there any other analytics being used for prospective draft picks?

None come to mind honestly.  It’s tough for prospects because it’s harder to track numbers for junior leagues and fewer numbers are available.  I’m probably not the best person to answer though.  I’m sure there is some stuff going on that I don’t know about.