So #8

[Zamboni]

This just tells me, a team at pick #8 has pretty much the same chance of a “hit” of getting a good NHLer who has a long productive career, as a “miss” who has a poor or short NHL career. Obviously the most recent 3-4 years don’t carry much weight, yet.

8th overall picks ...

2000 Nikita Alexeev

2001 Pascal Leclaire

2002 Pierre-Marc Bouchard

2003 Braydon Coburn

2004 Alexandre Picard

2005 Devin Setoguchi

2006 Peter Mueller

2007 Zach Hamill

2008 Mikkel Bødker

2009 Scott Glennie

2010 Alexander Burmistrov

2011 Sean Couturier

2012 Derrick Pouliot

2013 Rasmus Ristolainen

2014 William Nylander

2015 Zach Werenski

2016 Alexander Nylander

2017 Casey Mittelstadt

2018 Adam Boqvist

2019 Philip Broberg
 

a lot of teams with a lot of misses....

[Curt]

17 minutes ago, TheCerebral1 said:

If Lundell is the least exciting pick to you, for me it's Sanderson and it's not even close.  If we take him 8th overall, which is easily 10 spots too early, I will lose my mind.  Rossi is not falling, he's this years Cole Caufield (who slipped to what 7th).  I prefer of this list:  Lundell, Raymond, Perfetti, Askarov, Quinn, Jarvis, Hotlz. 

I don’t get the comparison at all.  They don’t play the same position, have a similar style, or have a similar statistical profile.  Also, Caufield DID slide to 15th, so................

Edited August 11, 2020 by Curt

[Eleven]

^  That's why they should trade the pick to some team that thinks it's smarter than it actually is.

[LabattBlue]

4 minutes ago, Zamboni said:

This just tells me, a team at pick #8 has pretty much the same chance of a “hit” of getting a good NHLer who has a long productive career, as a “miss” who has a poor or short NHL career. Obviously the most recent 3-4 years don’t carry much weight, yet.

8th overall picks ...

2000 Nikita Alexeev

2001 Pascal Leclaire

2002 Pierre-Marc Bouchard

2003 Braydon Coburn

2004 Alexandre Picard

2005 Devin Setoguchi

2006 Peter Mueller

2007 Zach Hamill

2008 Mikkel Bødker

2009 Scott Glennie

2010 Alexander Burmistrov

2011 Sean Couturier

2012 Derrick Pouliot

2013 Rasmus Ristolainen

2014 William Nylander

2015 Zach Werenski

2016 Alexander Nylander

2017 Casey Mittelstadt

2018 Adam Boqvist

2019 Philip Broberg
 

a lot of teams with a lot of misses....

Holy cow!  From 2000-2009 what a bunch of crap ranging from busts to mediocre NHL players.

[WildCard]

14 minutes ago, Zamboni said:

This just tells me, a team at pick #8 has pretty much the same chance of a “hit” of getting a good NHLer who has a long productive career, as a “miss” who has a poor or short NHL career. Obviously the most recent 3-4 years don’t carry much weight, yet.

2010 Alexander Burmistrov

2011 Sean Couturier

2012 Derrick Pouliot

2013 Rasmus Ristolainen

2014 William Nylander

2015 Zach Werenski

2016 Alexander Nylander

2017 Casey Mittelstadt

2018 Adam Boqvist

2019 Philip Broberg
 

a lot of teams with a lot of misses....

TBF the Sabres are responsible for 30% of those picks in the last decade, and we already know we suck

Edited August 11, 2020 by WildCard

[Andrew Amerk]

2 hours ago, Zamboni said:

This just tells me, a team at pick #8 has pretty much the same chance of a “hit” of getting a good NHLer who has a long productive career, as a “miss” who has a poor or short NHL career. Obviously the most recent 3-4 years don’t carry much weight, yet.

8th overall picks ...

2000 Nikita Alexeev

2001 Pascal Leclaire

2002 Pierre-Marc Bouchard

2003 Braydon Coburn

2004 Alexandre Picard

2005 Devin Setoguchi

2006 Peter Mueller

2007 Zach Hamill

2008 Mikkel Bødker

2009 Scott Glennie

2010 Alexander Burmistrov

2011 Sean Couturier

2012 Derrick Pouliot

2013 Rasmus Ristolainen

2014 William Nylander

2015 Zach Werenski

2016 Alexander Nylander

2017 Casey Mittelstadt

2018 Adam Boqvist

2019 Philip Broberg
 

a lot of teams with a lot of misses....

TRADE IT!

[Eleven]

5 hours ago, WildCard said:

TBF the Sabres are responsible for 30% of those picks in the last decade, and we already know we suck

If you think Ristolainen was a bad pick at 8, well, there's a lot of news upthread for you.

[Andrew Amerk]

Who the hell is Scott Glennie?

[miles]

On 8/10/2020 at 9:22 PM, LabattBlue said:

The lottery is a joke.  Always was, still is, and always will be.  Just go back to worst team picks first...and if that team decides to tank(I mean the GM, not the players or coaches), then so be it.

i fully agree with this. how many years has it been since the tank and the sabres are still horrible. tanking is not worth it. its not like the nba where 1 or 2 players will completely change a team.

Edited August 12, 2020 by miles

[IKnowPhysics]

Peter Griffin:

"A 2C is just a 2C, but a #8 pick could be anything.  It could even be a 2C! And you know how long we've wanted one of those!"

[Crusader1969]

23 hours ago, WildCard said:

TBF the Sabres are responsible for 30% of those picks in the last decade, and we already know we suck

thats why you either make a real run to the playoffs or come last...drafting 8th sucks!

Lucky this draft has a bonafide top 10.

[Crusader1969]

5 hours ago, miles said:

i fully agree with this. how many years has it been since the tank and the sabres are still horrible. tanking is not worth it. its not like the nba where 1 or 2 players will completely change a team.

if you tank you have to be patient. Murray wasn't and traded away too many picks.  Who knows where they'd be if they had stayed the course.  couldn't be much worse.

[Thorner]

On 8/11/2020 at 8:40 AM, LGR4GM said:

I don't think that's true at all. I think there's a break at 9 or 10. 

You have it after what, Byfield Lafreniere Stutzle Drysdale Rossi Perfetti Raymond and Holtz? So drop off after 8, into the Sanderson/Lundell tier? 

[Thorner]

4 hours ago, Crusader1969 said:

if you tank you have to be patient. Murray wasn't and traded away too many picks.  Who knows where they'd be if they had stayed the course.  couldn't be much worse.

The narrative that’ll never die. 

Murray didn’t trade too many picks. Maybe he shouldn’t have traded a 1st for Lehner. We’d have a Colin White level player. Other than that, including a second in a deal for an elite two way player, and a late first that became Jack Roslovic in a deal for a 30 goal scorer is not only perfectly acceptable, but desirable.

I’m much more interested in what “staying the course” with ROR and Lehner would have looked like than what staying the course with Colin White, Jack Roslovic, and JT Compher would have looked like.

Edited August 13, 2020 by Thorny

[thewookie1]

17 minutes ago, Thorny said:

The narrative that’ll never die. 

Murray didn’t trade too many picks. Maybe he shouldn’t have traded a 1st for Lehner. We’d have a Colin White level player. Other than that, including a second in a deal for an elite two way player, and a late first that became Jack Roslovic in a deal for a 30 goal scorer is not only perfectly acceptable, but desirable.

I’m much more interested in what “staying the course” with ROR and Lehner would have looked like than what staying the course with Colin White, Jack Roslovic, and JT Compher would have looked like.

I’d say the more correct notion would be Murray overpaid in his attempt to hasten the rebuild.

2 2nds for Fasching

Myers, Stafford, a 1st, Lemuiex and Armia for Kane, Bogosian, and Kasdorf

A 3rd for Vesey’s rights

A 1st for Lehner and Legwand (capdump that turned out good)

[Thorner]

4 minutes ago, thewookie1 said:

I’d say the more correct notion would be Murray overpaid in his attempt to hasten the rebuild.

2 2nds for Fasching

Myers, Stafford, a 1st, Lemuiex and Armia for Kane, Bogosian, and Kasdorf

A 3rd for Vesey’s rights

A 1st for Lehner and Legwand (capdump that turned out good)

Didn't he also acquire a bunch of picks? I did the breakdown recently and he brought in a bunch, too. More less breaking even. Remember Moulson deal? 

No one read the breakdown lol. Go search the full list of deals under Murray's tenure and see for yourself!

And, again, we lost the equivalent of Colin White, Jack Roslovic, and whatever that 2nd in the ROR deal became, in pick currency, in the acquisition of a Conn Smythe level player, a Vezina Finalist level goalie talent, and a perennial 30 goal type scorer. 

Edited August 13, 2020 by Thorny

[thewookie1]

1 minute ago, Thorny said:

Didn't he also acquire a bunch of picks? I did the breakdown recently and he brought in a bunch, too. More less breaking even. Remember Moulson deal? 

No one read it. 

Yes he did but it doesn’t matter if you make $100 if you immediately use it to buy overpriced goods for $100.

His biggest flaws was marrying himself to specific players versus a type of player, seemingly not understanding team chemistry,  and completely destroying Rochester.

 

[Thorner]

My point is that he didn't trade too many picks away. He just didn't. He made some bad decisions but he wasn't philosophically bankrupt and in opposition of some accepted standard of the amount of picks it's ok to move. 

We didn't overpay for ROR or Kane. Is giving Colin White up for a starting goalie an overpayment? 

The Fasching deal is the only one that sticks out in terms of objective misuse of picks. But he made up for that with the Moulson deal. 

Edited August 13, 2020 by Thorny

[thewookie1]

Just now, Thorny said:

My point is that he didn't trade too many picks away. He just didn't. He made some bad decisions but he wasn't philosophically bankrupt and in opposition of some accepted standard of the amount of picks it's ok to move. 

We didn't overpay for ROR or Kane. Is giving Colin White up for a starting goalie and overpayment? 

The Fasching deal is the only one that sticks out in terms of objective misuse of picks. But he made up for that with the Moulson deal. 

I’d disagree about Kane and Lehner.

Kane had requested out and was at odds with the team’s management. So his value should of dropped some. Bogosian was a toss up who had dropped into healthy scratch with awful contract and a random goalie. We traded a former Calder trophy winning freak dman with warts but still very useful. A rental in Stafford worth a 2nd, a late 1st, the 31st pick from the year prior and a former 1st rounder in Armia. 

It was very one sided then and only worsened as time passed.

[Thorner]

17 minutes ago, thewookie1 said:

I’d disagree about Kane and Lehner.

Kane had requested out and was at odds with the team’s management. So his value should of dropped some. Bogosian was a toss up who had dropped into healthy scratch with awful contract and a random goalie. We traded a former Calder trophy winning freak dman with warts but still very useful. A rental in Stafford worth a 2nd, a late 1st, the 31st pick from the year prior and a former 1st rounder in Armia. 

It was very one sided then and only worsened as time passed.

A lot of this is revisionist. If you revisit the trade at the time, plenty were saying Bogo/Myers was a wash for us. In no way shape or form was Bogo's value perceived as a "toss in" at the time. 

Only worsened? What are you smoking? As of this day I'd argue we got the better of the deal. Montour is probably the best active player on either team from the tree of the deal 

If anything, I'd take Armia back. The pick is whatever. Who knows who it would have been. The Jets got Roslovic who's been a big meh so far. I watch him here a lot, he's not an impressive player. 

Edited August 13, 2020 by Thorny

[Thorner]

If Pick Roslovic and pick White for a net of Montour is enough to buoy a narrative that Murray traded too many picks, have at it. 

I don't really care, I just don't like when "Murray traded too many picks" is used as the main justification for why we shouldn't trade draft picks, full stop, as it often is. 

As if it was the mere fact of trading them, and too many, that was the problem. It's about WHO is making the decisions. Each decision has its own context and result. 

I'm good with trading all of our picks, or none of them, depending on the deals available.

Edited August 13, 2020 by Thorny

[jsb]

I haven't seen it posted yet but Pronman's latest mock draft had Drysdale going 7th and us taking Rossi, if New Jersey were to take Rossi would we take a Dman 8th or does that put a possible premium on trading that pick?? I'm not sure I take any of the remaining forwards ahead of Drysdale. 

[Thorner]

12 minutes ago, jsb said:

I haven't seen it posted yet but Pronman's latest mock draft had Drysdale going 7th and us taking Rossi, if New Jersey were to take Rossi would we take a Dman 8th or does that put a possible premium on trading that pick?? I'm not sure I take any of the remaining forwards ahead of Drysdale. 

If Drysdale falls to 8 I think you just take him. Our D would probably be ridonkulous pretty quickly. Just make sure the top 6 additions this offseason are legit mainstays and not placeholders. 

[Thorner]

Dahlin - Drysdale

McCabe - Jokiharju

Samuelsson - Risto/Montour/Miller

lol

[Taro T]

11 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Dahlin - Drysdale

McCabe - Jokiharju

Samuelsson - Risto/Montour/Miller

lol

With a smidge of luck, that could be Nashville quality for a long time.