So #8

[matter2003]

11 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

No, but he did produce. That's when you start digging deeper. Pastrnak had enough production to warrant a look but he is also an exception not the rule. I find that exceptions more often than not have 3 things that could be impacting them. 1 injuries, they get injured in their draft year but play through some part of it. 2 team, they are on an awful team and aren't elite enough to drag the carcass forward. 3 foreign league, a lot of the guys in none NA leagues have 2 issues ice time and how will their game translate to the NHL. 

These are the 3 things that I worry about most. That said, if we look at 2014 and just production... Point is above a lot of players. Virtanaen, Cornel, Tuch, Lemieux. 

Unfortunately the site I use does not go back to 2014 for primary points from Pastnak's league so I can't see where he falls. 

You should look at Hockey reference dot com and go to NHL Draft and you can sort each year by points and it shows where they were picked...it also shows all the prior stats all the way back to junior and foreign leagues for all years

Edited August 11, 2020 by matter2003

[LGR4GM]

3 minutes ago, matter2003 said:

You should look at Hockey reference dot com and go to NHL Draft and you can sort each year by points and it shows where they were picked...it also shows all the prior stats all the way back to junior and foreign leagues for all years

Eliteprospects does this too. 

Right now though (I alluded to this earlier) I am focused on primary points at even strength and all. It helps to eliminate some noise with things like secondary assists and guys who only produce on the pp. 

[LGR4GM]

The other thing (Rakish does this) is to compare players across drafts to look for trends.

The other thing would be to track league scoring so you can do... SEAL. Scoring Era Age League adjustments to scoring to see cohorts of similar players. 

[dudacek]

39 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

You start with the production and go from there. It is more about finding irregularities and digging deeper. That doesn't mean draft off of production alone but you should be looking into that. It is how I land on a Kaliyev or a Robertson while the Sabres land on Johnson (you adjust between forwards and defenders). You notice the production trends, dig deeper, understand how that player produces and go from there. It is why Seth Jarvis sits so high for me. His production is 6th in the entire 2020 class in primary even strength points (so excluded 2nd assists). Now you dig deeper... Jarvis can skate, has a good motor, drives the line he is on, was tops on his team in points (teams matter always) and he has no discernible flaw other than possibly being short. Hence why he slides up my board. 

What do you think about Portland's history of productive players not translating their production to the NHL? (Cody Glass (yet), Keifer Bellows, Oliver Bjorkstrand (his jr #s were crazy good), Nick Petan, Derrick Pouliot, Ty Rattie, Brendan Leipsic, Sven Baerstchi...)

Edited August 11, 2020 by dudacek

[LGR4GM]

54 minutes ago, dudacek said:

What do you think about Portland's history of productive players not translating their production to the NHL? (Cody Glass (yet), Keifer Bellows, Oliver Bjorkstrand (his jr #s were crazy good), Nick Petan, Derrick Pouliot, Ty Rattie, Brendan Leipsic, Sven Baerstchi...)

That's why Jarvis is ranked where he is. I think he may have outscored all of those players however. Nic Petan might be the loan exception but looking at his actual primary production, Jarvis outproduced him. Bjorkstrand did not have crazy good numbers in his draft year. 

Glass I think will be a good nhl player and I don't understand what the Islanders are doing with Bellows. 

 

When I say the team matters I don't mean this though. I mean who else is on the team with that player. It is why Quinn is a player I fade hard. He played on a line behind Rossi while benefiting from #1 pp time with Rossi. That is why I mean by team, who else is there and how strong is the team that year. Sean Monahan I think it was outscored his other teammates by like 35% and was involved in something absurd like 70% of his teams goals. 

[tom webster]

13 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

That's why Jarvis is ranked where he is. I think he may have outscored all of those players however. Nic Petan might be the loan exception but looking at his actual primary production, Jarvis outproduced him. Bjorkstrand did not have crazy good numbers in his draft year. 

Glass I think will be a good nhl player and I don't understand what the Islanders are doing with Bellows. 

 

When I say the team matters I don't mean this though. I mean who else is on the team with that player. It is why Quinn is a player I fade hard. He played on a line behind Rossi while benefiting from #1 pp time with Rossi. That is why I mean by team, who else is there and how strong is the team that year. Sean Monahan I think it was outscored his other teammates by like 35% and was involved in something absurd like 70% of his teams goals. 

I have a question for you with regard to Rossi. The few scouting reports refer to just average skating which is normally a concern for smaller players not to mention my longing for a great skating team.
I really want this team to play like Vegas or the Avalanche. Big reason I don’t want Dylan Strome  or Josh Anderson.

Any thoughts?

[dudacek]

All good stuff ^^^.

Watching the tape Quinn did drive his line, however. He also scored plenty at even strength and killed penalties.

And his goal scoring is all him. Those aren't tap-ins.

And to be fair, you could say Rossi benefitted from Quinn's presence as much as the other way around.

This is more Crosby/Malkin synergy, than Gretzky/Kurri.

 

19 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

That's why Jarvis is ranked where he is. I think he may have outscored all of those players however. Nic Petan might be the loan exception but looking at his actual primary production, Jarvis outproduced him. Bjorkstrand did not have crazy good numbers in his draft year. 

Glass I think will be a good nhl player and I don't understand what the Islanders are doing with Bellows. 

 

When I say the team matters I don't mean this though. I mean who else is on the team with that player. It is why Quinn is a player I fade hard. He played on a line behind Rossi while benefiting from #1 pp time with Rossi. That is why I mean by team, who else is there and how strong is the team that year. Sean Monahan I think it was outscored his other teammates by like 35% and was involved in something absurd like 70% of his teams goals. 

 

[LGR4GM]

29 minutes ago, tom webster said:

I have a question for you with regard to Rossi. The few scouting reports refer to just average skating which is normally a concern for smaller players not to mention my longing for a great skating team.
I really want this team to play like Vegas or the Avalanche. Big reason I don’t want Dylan Strome  or Josh Anderson.

Any thoughts?

From my understanding it has to do with the fact he doesn't have top end breakaway speed. I think it doesn't matter because he is quick in his first steps and has good speed. His agility and edgework look fine. 

26 minutes ago, dudacek said:

All good stuff ^^^.

Watching the tape Quinn did drive his line, however. He also scored plenty at even strength and killed penalties.

And his goal scoring is all him. Those aren't tap-ins.

And to be fair, you could say Rossi benefitted from Quinn's presence as much as the other way around.

This is more Crosby/Malkin synergy, than Gretzky/Kurri.

Quinn did partially drive his line. But his primary points at even are below quite a few guys. 

Quinn: 0.7097

Tullio: 0.6935

Jarvis: 0.9483

Rossi: 1.0357

He's good but he's not top 10 IMPO. Maybe if I was drafting 10th and all my other options were gone but he's producing on a really good team at a rate similar to a guy I can get at the end of the first or even maybe at 38th. Now you gotta dig deeper.

Edited August 11, 2020 by LGR4GM

[OhMyDahlin]

If it's not one of Lafreniere, Byfield, Stutzle, Rossi, Holtz, Raymond or Perfetti (in that order), I'll be very disappointed.

That is 7 forwards, so we desperately need Drysdale to go in the top-7...if those forwards are all gone, pass on Drysdale and trade the pick.


(I know people love them some Anton Lundell, but I have seen that he's a poor skater and I don't see him as more than a 3rd line center.)

Edited August 11, 2020 by OhMyDahlin

[LGR4GM]

If you look at primary pp points. Quinn is 4th in the OHL for draft eligible players at .4032

Rossi: .5000

Perreault: .4386

Foerester: .4194

[Curt]

24 minutes ago, tom webster said:

I have a question for you with regard to Rossi. The few scouting reports refer to just average skating which is normally a concern for smaller players not to mention my longing for a great skating team.
I really want this team to play like Vegas or the Avalanche. Big reason I don’t want Dylan Strome  or Josh Anderson.

Any thoughts?

I think his skating is very good.  His straight line top speed might be average though.  His short area quickness, acceleration and agility are great.  Overall it’s a strength of his game for sure.  What scouting reports were you reading?

In addition to this, he hustles like crazy and is very very smart on the ice, so he gets the jump on other players by outworking and outthinking them.

That’s my take.

[LGR4GM]

As always I encourage ppl to do their own research. I am one person and I am wrong... except about Boeser. I will forever be salty. 

[OhMyDahlin]

17 hours ago, Randall Flagg said:

Neutral outcome. Rangers have some very nice pieces.

They really do...and the sad thing is, Buffalo could have everything they have if they were smart.

We could have Chris Drury in our front office, we could have David Quinn as our head coach, we could have a deep prospect pipeline...it's so frustrating.

If there's any team we should be jealous of, it's the New York Rangers.

[OhMyDahlin]

7 minutes ago, Curt said:

I think his skating is very good.  His straight line top speed might be average though.  His short area quickness, acceleration and agility are great.  Overall it’s a strength of his game for sure.  What scouting reports were you reading?

In addition to this, he hustles like crazy and is very very smart on the ice, so he gets the jump on other players by outworking and outthinking them.

That’s my take.

I've also read that out of those top-7 forwards, Rossi is the most responsible defensively.

[Curt]

2 minutes ago, OhMyDahlin said:

I've also read that out of those top-7 forwards, Rossi is the most responsible defensively.

Yes, opposing OHL coaches voted him best defensive forward.

[JohnC]

3 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

And again I don't understand why. You have 4 years to convince he wants to stay here which is the closest he will ever get to playing near his home town. That is if you sign him to a 4 year deal or two 2 year deals. You control him for at least 4 years. Make the trade and worry about the rest later. 

I'm confused on the RFA contract issue. If Cirelli gets traded to a team that he is not enamored with does he have to sign a contract or just go year to year until he qualifies as an UFA if that is his desire? 

Whatever the contract ramifications are I still believe that Tampa will work out a deal to retain him. (My opinion.) And if he is dealt the asking price for him is probably going to be more than a pick. 

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2901013-nhl-rumors-latest-buzz-on-taylor-hall-contract-anthony-cirelli-more

[LGR4GM]

Just now, JohnC said:

I'm confused on the RFA contract issue. If Cirelli gets traded to a team that he is not enamored with does he have to sign a contract or just go year to year until he qualifies as an UFA if that is his desire? 

Whatever the contract ramifications are I still believe that Tampa will work out a deal to retain him. (My opinion.) And if he is dealt the asking price for him is probably going to be more than a pick. 

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2901013-nhl-rumors-latest-buzz-on-taylor-hall-contract-anthony-cirelli-more

He could go year to year but would be stupid to do it. One injury and his value plummets. 

He would be an RFA for 4 years regardless of what contract he signs. He can sign a 4 year, 2 yearx2 whatever but the team holds his rights for another 4 seasons. He is also from the Toronto area so this is as close to home as he can really get. He would be smart to sign a 3 year bridge and then a new 5-6 year deal. 

[JohnC]

1 minute ago, LGR4GM said:

He could go year to year but would be stupid to do it. One injury and his value plummets. 

He would be an RFA for 4 years regardless of what contract he signs. He can sign a 4 year, 2 yearx2 whatever but the team holds his rights for another 4 seasons. He is also from the Toronto area so this is as close to home as he can really get. He would be smart to sign a 3 year bridge and then a new 5-6 year deal. 

After reading your explanation I would definitely give up a first round pick to Tampa for him. But most likely Tampa would want more as a prior link suggests. 

[dudacek]

2 minutes ago, JohnC said:

I'm confused on the RFA contract issue. If Cirelli gets traded to a team that he is not enamored with does he have to sign a contract or just go year to year until he qualifies as an UFA if that is his desire? 

Whatever the contract ramifications are I still believe that Tampa will work out a deal to retain him. (My opinion.) And if he is dealt the asking price for him is probably going to be more than a pick. 

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2901013-nhl-rumors-latest-buzz-on-taylor-hall-contract-anthony-cirelli-more

He has to play 7 years before he reaches uNrestricted free agency. He has played 3 years.

He can sign with another team, but whoever has his rights can match. He doesn’t have to sign, but if he holds out he doesn’t get paid,  and he doesn’t get closer to UFA status.

[tom webster]

37 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

As always I encourage ppl to do their own research. I am one person and I am wrong... except about Boeser. I will forever be salty. 

My grandfather once told me, find what you do best and make it your life’s work. For everything else, search out the best and use them.

For prospect rankings, I’ll defer to you and let you do the work. I do however, reserve the right to let you know when you are wrong since you go to great lengths to tell us when you are right.?

[LabattBlue]

1 hour ago, tom webster said:

...I do however, reserve the right to let you know when you are wrong since you go to great lengths to tell us when you are right.?

???

[Rasmus_]

21 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Depends on who drops. 

I would take Drysdale, Lafrienere, Byfield, Stutzle off the board and then... no idea. The next 3 picks before Buffalo could be anyone of a handful of names. Note I am listing options not players I personally want

Marco Rossi

Cole Perfetti (I am almost convinced he is going to Detroit)

Seth Jarvis

Jake Sanderson  

Alex Hotlz

Lucas Raymond

Anton Lundell (what is the least exciting pick I can think of...)

Jack Quinn

Yaroslov Askarov

and maybe Connor Zary

 

If Lundell is the least exciting pick to you, for me it's Sanderson and it's not even close.  If we take him 8th overall, which is easily 10 spots too early, I will lose my mind.  Rossi is not falling, he's this years Cole Caufield (who slipped to what 7th).  I prefer of this list:  Lundell, Raymond, Perfetti, Askarov, Quinn, Jarvis, Hotlz. 

[Rasmus_]

21 hours ago, Gabrielor said:

-If We Keep it-

1) Rossi is the gem. He's the best-case that's also realistic.

2) Raymond, Lundell are my next two, feeling safe Lundell will be there at 8. If both are, I still don't have a final answer; some days its Lundell, some days its Raymond.

3) Sanderson, surprisingly, is an honorable mention for me if we suddenly find ourselves with multiple centers with any kind of term. 

4) If we somehow go into the draft with multiple forward adds (multiple centers), and a quality plan on defense upgrades, I'd entertain Askarov, but this team would have to be playoff-caliber without using 8.

 

-If We Don't Keep It-

1,2,3...76) You're looking for a real 2C. Think Cirelli, Horvat, possibly Monahan. Obviously also available for a 1C package if they live (Barkov).

77) Moving it for a winger/defenseman would depend heavily on who and contract details. I haven't thought at all on this, so I have no examples. Suffice to say, this path is unlikely. (Same for goaltender, but even less of a chance)

Horvat is unlikely available, Monahan seems less and less likely available and we're going to trade too much for Cirelli for what he's actually proven to be at this point. Barkov definitely is not available. 

21 hours ago, Gabrielor said:

 

 

[Rasmus_]

17 hours ago, Eleven said:

The Sabres didn't have Jack or Rasmus Darlin when those trades happened.

They are wasting Jack's time here.

He will either demand a trade or just leave when his time is up.  He wants, and deserves, a shot at the Cup.  And it won't be long before Dahlin feels the same way.

 

I agree with you Eleven.  I just don't know if there is that type of player available for #8 and assets that we have.  Our talent cupboard is all either "not A level prospects" or already in the NHL.  If you can get Hertl, or Monahan, I'd do it immediately.  I would take Hertl over Cirelli any day.  He probably costs less too than Cirelli. 

[shrader]

5 hours ago, dudacek said:

What do you think about Portland's history of productive players not translating their production to the NHL? (Cody Glass (yet), Keifer Bellows, Oliver Bjorkstrand (his jr #s were crazy good), Nick Petan, Derrick Pouliot, Ty Rattie, Brendan Leipsic, Sven Baerstchi...)

Do any of the others have a similar path as Bellows, who was only there for one year after bailing on the NCAA?