So #8

[Curt]

33 minutes ago, MakeSabresGrr8Again said:

Now think about which one will contribute the most if your goal is to contend  for the cup by 2022 ( or before Jack wants out).

Sure.  But I never said that the draft pick would be a more useful player for a cup contender by 2022.

You implied that by making a trade like that you were not actually losing any future value because the 25 year old player you are getting is still pretty young.  I replied that it is not true and explained why you are losing longer term value in both years of team control and salary costs.

I agree that it would be a trade for near term benefit, while incurring a longer term cost.  I also think that there are often other ways to acquire a player that can help in the near term, while having less of a long term cost.  Whether a trade like that is worth the long term cost also all depends on the specific player being acquired, of course.

Edited September 18, 2020 by Curt

[MakeSabresGrr8Again]

8 minutes ago, Curt said:

Sure.  But I never said that the draft pick would be a more useful player for a cup contender by 2022.

You implied that by making a trade like that you were not actually losing any future value because the 25 year old player you are getting is still pretty young.  I replied that it is not true and explained why you are losing longer term value in both years of team control and salary costs.

I agree that it would be a trade for near term benefit, while incurring a longer term cost.  I also think that there are often other ways to acquire a player that can help in the near term, while having less of a long term cost.  Whether a trade like that is worth the long term cost also all depends on the specific player being acquired, of course.

I think we basically agree. Maybe just our timelines may be different and whether you "lose" anything by making the pick/ trading the pick. I don't think you really lose anything either way. There are risks that can be argued on both sides. Will the pick be Nylander? Casey? Will the player traded for pan out for you? 

 

[JohnC]

2 hours ago, Cascade Youth said:

I’m sorry but “proactive” and “paradigm,” aren’t these just buzzwords that dumb people use to sound important?

I’m fired, aren’t I.

Nope. Just keep slinging those buzzwords until you wear down the opposition. 🤡

[JohnC]

3 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

I disagree on your assessment of the top of player we will get at 8. Under Botterill, sure because he couldn't draft for *****. 

This is the same logic used in 2015. I saw it again last year (now everyone loves Cozens). I wouldn't trade this pick for Monahan, I might for Cirelli because he is a better fit. Since those trades are unlikely, make the pick. 

I not using the logic of the past to make decisions for the present. I'm looking at the current situation and making a decision where it is expected that the young player that I already know can play at a first or second line NHL level is being exchanged for a prospect who may or may not turn out to be a first or second line NHL player two to three years down the road. Because we already have Cozens is a reason to be willing to trade this year's first round pick, and is not a reason not to. As I stated before we will be playing a number of youngsters this upcoming season so there shouldn't be much of a fear of mortgaging the future. If you want to maximize the return on Jack and Dahlin you need to upgrade the roster sooner rather than later. Running gets you to your destination quicker than slow walking. The future is now. 

Edited September 18, 2020 by JohnC

[Brawndo]

20 minutes ago, MakeSabresGrr8Again said:

I think we basically agree. Maybe just our timelines may be different and whether you "lose" anything by making the pick/ trading the pick. I don't think you really lose anything either way. There are risks that can be argued on both sides. Will the pick be Nylander? Casey? Will the player traded for pan out for you? 

 

0r will the pick be a Willie Nylander or Zach Werenski? 

Risto , the prospect was worthy of the 8th Overall Pick but thinking an 18 yo was ready for the AHL/NHL screwed up His Development

Bo Horvat was taken one pick later

Any trade of this pick should include the Sabres Fans saying rejoicing and saying Holy ***** We got that Guy for 8th Overall. 

I understand about keeping Jack Happy.  Friedman mentioned He can imagine Eichel wasn't happy to hear about the the Sabres proposed internal cap, but that the Staal Trade has made the team better and Jack will see this as a positive step. 

 

[MakeSabresGrr8Again]

11 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

0r will the pick be a Willie Nylander or Zach Werenski? 

Risto , the prospect was worthy of the 8th Overall Pick but thinking an 18 yo was ready for the AHL/NHL screwed up His Development

Bo Horvat was taken one pick later

Any trade of this pick should include the Sabres Fans saying rejoicing and saying Holy ***** We got that Guy for 8th Overall. 

I understand about keeping Jack Happy.  Friedman mentioned He can imagine Eichel wasn't happy to hear about the the Sabres proposed internal cap, but that the Staal Trade has made the team better and Jack will see this as a positive step. 

 

But we have to see what other moves take place to see if Jack has reason to be happy. What happens with Sam could cause that to go in either direction. 

We still have many moves to make and yes, we filled a big need. But, there are still holes such as RFA's to be signed and upgrades along with some possible other trades before Jack can make any real assessment as to what direction we're going in.

I agree the Staal trade looks good but, if the other moves aren't addressed properly it won't matter much.

[Crusader1969]

2 scenarios that would be excellent for the Sabres 

1) Askarov, Drysdale and Sanderson all go before they draft.   Basically guarantees that 2 of Raymond, Rossi and Holtz will be on the board. 
Maybe all 3 if Detroit goes for Perfetti

2) Askarov is on the board and they take him 

I’m leaning heavy on the goalie at this moment. But won’t be at all disappointed with any of the above e mention every 
 
Is anyone else on board with the Askarov pick? 

[dudacek]

11 minutes ago, Crusader1969 said:

 

Is anyone else on board with the Askarov pick? 

Not me.

I don't fully buy into the logic of "never a goalie in the first round" but pick 8 is too high and there are too many players I'd rather add.

[Curt]

1 hour ago, JohnC said:

The future is now. 

I think you mean that the now is important, because the future is definitely the future.  🥴

[JohnC]

26 minutes ago, Curt said:

I think you mean that the now is important, because the future is definitely the future.  🥴

Cliches are meant to distort the literal truth. It is my humble birthright to be allowed the privilege of being literally inaccurate and imprecise. 🤡

[JohnC]

4 hours ago, Cascade Youth said:

I’m sorry but “proactive” and “paradigm,” aren’t these just buzzwords that dumb people use to sound important?

I’m fired, aren’t I.

If smart people can use buzzwords to sound important then dumb people should also have the right use buzzwords to sound important. Not to allow that right would be discriminatory. I'm against discrimination in any form. 🤡

[Brawndo]

1 hour ago, MakeSabresGrr8Again said:

But we have to see what other moves take place to see if Jack has reason to be happy. What happens with Sam could cause that to go in either direction. 

We still have many moves to make and yes, we filled a big need. But, there are still holes such as RFA's to be signed and upgrades along with some possible other trades before Jack can make any real assessment as to what direction we're going in.

I agree the Staal trade looks good but, if the other moves aren't addressed properly it won't matter much.

Absolutely, that’s why I mentioned it’s a positive step. There is more work to be done to address middle six scoring depth, defense and goaltending. 
 

I’m still worried about the the lack of experience in the Sabres Front Office, but this trade does alleviate some of My Concerns. 

[Crusader1969]

Lucas Raymond with the PP snipe to open up the SHL season.  
 

the way he is playing you can just about cross him off the possibles at 8 list along with the big 3 

[Ducky]

21 hours ago, Crusader1969 said:

2 scenarios that would be excellent for the Sabres 

1) Askarov, Drysdale and Sanderson all go before they draft.   Basically guarantees that 2 of Raymond, Rossi and Holtz will be on the board. 
Maybe all 3 if Detroit goes for Perfetti

2) Askarov is on the board and they take him 

I’m leaning heavy on the goalie at this moment. But won’t be at all disappointed with any of the above e mention every 
 
Is anyone else on board with the Askarov pick? 

No way Drysdale is there at 8 and Askarov will be. Not sure about Sanderson but I think he will have a long future in the NHL as at least a 2 Dman.

[Flashsabre]

I think there will be several good options at #8.

 

Personally I would love Rossi or Raymond at 8 but I can’t say Perfetti, Drysdale, Sanderson, Holtz, Lundell, Jarvis, Quinn won’t turn out to be very good players if they end up at the number 8 position.  I would even come around to Askarov if they felt he is that good.

[JohnC]

On 9/18/2020 at 12:56 PM, Curt said:

Compare these two.

25 year old guy, on a $5M, 3 year contract, then is a UFA after 2022-23 season.

2020 1st, makes the league in 2021-22, is making only ~$1M until the 2024-25 season, is under team control until something like 2028-2029

The draft pick is literally an asset that you will control longer into the future and for a cheaper price point than that 25 year old.  That’s all I said.

If you look at your draft assets primarily through the lense of money and the length of the control of assets then your view is unassailable. But that is a view that is a somewhat detached from what the main goal should be i.e. building a successful franchise. The Sabres are in a situation that is dire. It's on ice performance is currently mediocre and has been for a decade. To make matters even worse it is a boring product in what is essentially an entertainment business.

The fanbase is steadily eroding. Although a large portion of the arena seats are sold through season ticket sales it disguises the reality that a lot of people don't even bother attending the games for tickets that are 10 cents on the dollar. I have heard WGR commentary by the radio hosts say countless times that they don't even like talking about the Sabres because they are tired of repeating the same exasperating storyline. This apathetic attitude comes from a sports station that covers only two pro sports. That's pathetic! 

This year the roster will have a number of young players on the roster. Last year, the franchise had two first round draft picks. So using this year's first round pick to acquire a still youthful genuine second line player has to be seriously considered. The argument that it is mortgaging the future is a weak argument. If a fair-value return can't be made for the pick then of course you keep it. If a deal for a player who can immediately contribute can be made then it should be made. This team needs an immediate jolt to wake up a franchise and fanbase that has become something worse than lethargic, namely apathetic. The future is now! 

[Curt]

2 hours ago, JohnC said:

If you look at your draft assets primarily through the lense of money and the length of the control of assets then your view is unassailable. But that is a view that is a somewhat detached from what the main goal should be i.e. building a successful franchise. The Sabres are in a situation that is dire. It's on ice performance is currently mediocre and has been for a decade. To make matters even worse it is a boring product in what is essentially an entertainment business.

The fanbase is steadily eroding. Although a large portion of the arena seats are sold through season ticket sales it disguises the reality that a lot of people don't even bother attending the games for tickets that are 10 cents on the dollar. I have heard WGR commentary by the radio hosts say countless times that they don't even like talking about the Sabres because they are tired of repeating the same exasperating storyline. This apathetic attitude comes from a sports station that covers only two pro sports. That's pathetic! 

This year the roster will have a number of young players on the roster. Last year, the franchise had two first round draft picks. So using this year's first round pick to acquire a still youthful genuine second line player has to be seriously considered. The argument that it is mortgaging the future is a weak argument. If a fair-value return can't be made for the pick then of course you keep it. If a deal for a player who can immediately contribute can be made then it should be made. This team needs an immediate jolt to wake up a franchise and fanbase that has become something worse than lethargic, namely apathetic. The future is now! 

I didn’t read this all because it has nothing to do with what I said.

Yeah, depending upon circumstances it can make sense to trade future assets for now assets.  By doing so, you are giving up future assets though.

No where in my post did I say anything about the current Sabres and whether they should or should not make a trade like that.  It would depend completely on the specifics of the deal.  

I’m just saying there is a possible downside to such a trade.  Anyone who says there is not is deluding themselves.

[Crusader1969]

Askarov with another huge game in the KHL

29-30 in a 2-1 win

 2020 prospect Yaroslav Askarov stops 29/30. He has a .974 SV% in 3 KHL appearances this season.

take him at 8.  Has as good,if not better, chance to work out than anyone else you can take at that spot 

 

 

[Thorner]

1 hour ago, Crusader1969 said:

Askarov with another huge game in the KHL

29-30 in a 2-1 win

 2020 prospect Yaroslav Askarov stops 29/30. He has a .974 SV% in 3 KHL appearances this season.

take him at 8.  Has as good,if not better, chance to work out than anyone else you can take at that spot 

 

 

I doubt a goalie has a higher degree of certainty than a Rossi or Lundell, imo

[Crusader1969]

2 hours ago, Thorny said:

I doubt a goalie has a higher degree of certainty than a Rossi or Lundell, imo

I don’t know I’d agree on Lundell. Though, I’m just going on what I’ve read not seen with my own eyes 

[Derrico]

But but but UPL?

[LGR4GM]

7 hours ago, Crusader1969 said:

Askarov with another huge game in the KHL

29-30 in a 2-1 win

 2020 prospect Yaroslav Askarov stops 29/30. He has a .974 SV% in 3 KHL appearances this season.

take him at 8.  Has as good,if not better, chance to work out than anyone else you can take at that spot 

 

 

Caution. The KHL is widely unbalanced and multiple goalies there routinely sit in the .930sv% by seasons end. 

A 0.74 gaa average is unsustainable. 

[Brawndo]

John Voglhas the Sabres taking Holtz at 8 in the latest Athletic Mock Draft. 

Rossi goes 7th to NJ

Ottawa gets Byfield and Raymond. 

[Shootica]

11 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

John Voglhas the Sabres taking Holtz at 8 in the latest Athletic Mock Draft. 

Rossi goes 7th to NJ

Ottawa gets Byfield and Raymond. 

Perfetti goes at #4 in their mock, which is interesting to me.  It seems like he either goes there in these things or falls past us.

[kas23]

21 hours ago, Crusader1969 said:

Askarov with another huge game in the KHL

29-30 in a 2-1 win

 2020 prospect Yaroslav Askarov stops 29/30. He has a .974 SV% in 3 KHL appearances this season.

take him at 8.  Has as good,if not better, chance to work out than anyone else you can take at that spot 

 

 

People are against this because of the draft position. But a goalie is the difference between a game won and a game lost. Rarely does a single player hold this type of sway (unless your name is Jack). So, maybe the best thing to do is to trade up a few spot, definitively before a goalie-needing team, and get an extra pick. It’s not like anyone we pick will end up having an effect this season anyways. UPL may be good, but this is predicating his success on hope. Hope isn’t a good strategy.