So #8

[PerreaultForever]

3 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Seth Jarvis is going to make some team really happy in 2 years. 

Maybe. A little small though. He could turn into a Briere or Fleury type player but only if he gets stronger. I suspect he goes late first round. 

[LGR4GM]

12 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:

Maybe. A little small though. He could turn into a Briere or Fleury type player but only if he gets stronger. I suspect he goes late first round. 

Respectfully disagree. I think you are far too preoccupied with size. Just my opinion but 5'10" isn't small enough to deter me at all. If he were 5'7" then sure. I think average NHL height is 6.25 and weight is 197 if I remember the last time I looked. As for getting stronger that is the easiest task for a player, it just involves the knowledge to do it and the dedication. 

I will bet you money that barring injury before the draft, Jarvis does not go late first round. I think top 15 is guarenteed. If he drops any lower, the Sabres need to trade up to take him. If he somehow slid into the 20's (23 or later) you 100% must trade up and acquire him. 

Edited August 28, 2020 by LGR4GM

[PerreaultForever]

4 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Respectfully disagree. I think you are far too preoccupied with size. Just my opinion but 5'10" isn't small enough to deter me at all. If he were 5'7" then sure. I think average NHL height is 6.25 and weight is 197 if I remember the last time I looked. As for getting stronger that is the easiest task for a player, it just involves the knowledge to do it and the dedication. 

I will bet you any amount of money that barring injury before the draft, Jarvis does not go late first round. I think top 15 is guarenteed. If he drops any lower, the Sabres need to trade up to take him. If he somehow slid into the 20's (23 or later) you 100% must trade up and acquire him. 

You're probably right, I do want more size and it does matter to me. lol, I was hoping Dach would fall to us for that very reason. If I was a scout I probably would miss out on a few smaller guys but my teams would be big and tougher to play against in the playoffs. 

You're also right, it can be an easy task to build strength for young players, now can you pass that info on to Tage? ?

By late first round I meant anywhere bottom third, depends on who else falls and what those teams want. I would not trade up for him unless it was just giving them Vlad or something inconsequential. I think as a team we need to get bigger.

[LGR4GM]

Just now, PerreaultForever said:

You're probably right, I do want more size and it does matter to me. lol, I was hoping Dach would fall to us for that very reason. If I was a scout I probably would miss out on a few smaller guys but my teams would be big and tougher to play against in the playoffs. 

You're also right, it can be an easy task to build strength for young players, now can you pass that info on to Tage? ?

By late first round I meant anywhere bottom third, depends on who else falls and what those teams want. I would not trade up for him unless it was just giving them Vlad or something inconsequential. I think as a team we need to get bigger.

Can I ask about this a little? Dach I think was 6'4". Were you upset we ended up taking the 6'3" Cozens?

I would add that Cozens plays a more north south in your face game than Dach IMPO. 

[LGR4GM]

15 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:

You're probably right, I do want more size and it does matter to me. lol, I was hoping Dach would fall to us for that very reason. If I was a scout I probably would miss out on a few smaller guys but my teams would be big and tougher to play against in the playoffs. 

You're also right, it can be an easy task to build strength for young players, now can you pass that info on to (1) Tage? ?

By late first round I meant anywhere bottom third, depends on who else falls and what those teams want. I would not trade up for him unless it was just giving them Vlad or something inconsequential. (2) I think as a team we need to get bigger.

Quoting twice because I wanted to respond to the non Dach stuff separately. Numbering for ease of reading. 

1) Tage is the classic example of a human outgrowing their ability to put on weight. He kept growing into his early 20's when most guys are starting to build up that man strength. He was I think 6'3" when he was drafted and now might be closer to 6'6". For a tall lanky person he was already behind and that just made it more so. I also think he was able to use his size and leverage to win a lot without strength and that did not help either. I really hope Tage works on strength and agility because those 2 things will make or break him as an NHL player IMPO. Basically I am saying there is this range of uber tall guys that seem to take an extra bit to really grow into their frames. 

2) I disagree. I think this team need to find players that are battlers. Matej Pekar, Dylan Cozens, Rasmus Dahlin are all guys who will battle hard for pucks and that is the key. Size can play a role there and Cozens and Dahlin are good sized guys but their willingness to fight for a puck is more important than their size IMPO. I think a Rossi or Jarvis has enough size that their battle won't be hindered and at the end of the day I want that compete. It was something that drew my eye to Nick Roberston last year, the kid would go through a brick wall, fight the devil, and eat your soul if it meant he was going to get a puck or help win a game. That drive and compete is more important for me when I dig into guys over their overall size. Basically 5'10" - 6'1" I view the same because I find that range to have no positive or negative impacts. 6'2" might also be included but once you get above and below that you start seeing things where you size might be an advantage or disadvantage and that isn't saying bigger is better, I find smaller guys agile and quick which can also be very good. If you can get big and quick (Hedman) then you have found perfection because that is when your strength can help you here and there. 

Sorry this ended up longer than I intended. Basically within a range I don't worry about size, above or below it I start too for various reasons. I want this team to play with more heart and I think that has lacked as a team component since 2007. Anyways thanks for talking prospects, it is always fun and I like hearing what other ppl like or dislike about someone even if I disagree. 

 

Edited August 28, 2020 by LGR4GM
correction:Edit: Tage was listed as 6'5.5" at the combine so I was wrong. He currently is listed at 6'6" but he clearly had a growth spurt that I don't think he ever truly was able to adapt too until hopefully this long offseason. (he was injured for part

[PerreaultForever]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

Can I ask about this a little? Dach I think was 6'4". Were you upset we ended up taking the 6'3" Cozens?

I would add that Cozens plays a more north south in your face game than Dach IMPO. 

Oh no no no. I think if you look around I rave about Cozens. great pick. I thought he wasn't really the typical JBot type player and I was glad for that. I'm just saying at the draft I suggested Dach if he fell to us as the pick. Like I'm saying about Sanderson now. I'm not sure if Cozens will be better than Dach though. Dach is looking pretty good right now. 

[PerreaultForever]

57 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Quoting twice because I wanted to respond to the non Dach stuff separately. Numbering for ease of reading. 

1) Tage is the classic example of a human outgrowing their ability to put on weight. He kept growing into his early 20's when most guys are starting to build up that man strength. He was I think 6'3" when he was drafted and now might be closer to 6'6". For a tall lanky person he was already behind and that just made it more so. I also think he was able to use his size and leverage to win a lot without strength and that did not help either. I really hope Tage works on strength and agility because those 2 things will make or break him as an NHL player IMPO. Basically I am saying there is this range of uber tall guys that seem to take an extra bit to really grow into their frames. 

2) I disagree. I think this team need to find players that are battlers. Matej Pekar, Dylan Cozens, Rasmus Dahlin are all guys who will battle hard for pucks and that is the key. Size can play a role there and Cozens and Dahlin are good sized guys but their willingness to fight for a puck is more important than their size IMPO. I think a Rossi or Jarvis has enough size that their battle won't be hindered and at the end of the day I want that compete. It was something that drew my eye to Nick Roberston last year, the kid would go through a brick wall, fight the devil, and eat your soul if it meant he was going to get a puck or help win a game. That drive and compete is more important for me when I dig into guys over their overall size. Basically 5'10" - 6'1" I view the same because I find that range to have no positive or negative impacts. 6'2" might also be included but once you get above and below that you start seeing things where you size might be an advantage or disadvantage and that isn't saying bigger is better, I find smaller guys agile and quick which can also be very good. If you can get big and quick (Hedman) then you have found perfection because that is when your strength can help you here and there. 

Sorry this ended up longer than I intended. Basically within a range I don't worry about size, above or below it I start too for various reasons. I want this team to play with more heart and I think that has lacked as a team component since 2007. Anyways thanks for talking prospects, it is always fun and I like hearing what other ppl like or dislike about someone even if I disagree. 

 

we don't really disagree on this at all. Battlers, heart, tenacity, whatever you want to call it I absolutely want more of it. 

and I like that movie a lot too. Pretty funny. watch out for those bees though lol. 

[IKnowPhysics]

6 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Respectfully disagree. I think you are far too preoccupied with size. Just my opinion but 5'10" isn't small enough to deter me at all. If he were 5'7" then sure.

My progressive self usually would agree with you: "Of course size doesn't matter, scoring matters.  Size is an archaic metric for the old timers' leftover memories of clutch-and-grab hockey."

There are plenty of anecdotes that back up that thinking (St Louis, Gaudreau, et al).  And there's some data: higher weight correlated to higher P/GP, but only in the 1967-1979 era, not the 2005-2012 era:

https://www.thestar.com/sports/hockey/2014/03/13/hockey_analytics_does_size_really_matter_in_the_nhl.html

But if I'm being truly progressive, it's the data that matters, not anecdotal thinking, and that analysis isn't sufficient to answer the question of drafting size.  So a deeper dive is worthwhile.  A 2015 stats study of CHL players transitioning into the NHL looked into it.  It defines "success" as 200 NHL GP (not perfect, but a start).

https://canucksarmy.com/2015/01/27/size-does-matter-defencemen/

It concludes that while scoring in the CHL doesn't guarantee success in the NHL, not scoring in the CHL pretty much guarantees a lack of NHL success.  It also observes that among players that do score in the CHL, the percentage of success is higher for players with taller heights.  This was found to be true for forwards and defensemen separately (the article for forwards, although cited by several analytics journal articles, is since defunct):

(height in cm is across the top row [183cm is 6'0"], P/GP in CHL is down the left column, percentages are of all 17 year old CHL players with 10 CHL GP that year that went on to play >=200 games in the NHL)

Defensemen:

The percentages and spread of percentages across height and P/GP for forwards are likely different, but the conclusions are the same.  However, the percentages this concept is based on, if it they hold up, only hold for large numbers of selections, not the individual.

So what do you do to maximize the odds?  Draft size or draft scoring?  Well, both.  And if you can't get one, you get the other.  So if other teams take size, you could find value in scoring, and vice versa. 

Additionally, since those models were published, more advanced models have been developed.  Josh Weissbock developed Prospect Cohort Success, and then was hired by the Panthers in 2016.  Jeremy Davis built Prospect Graduation Probability System and started a pay site, but still publishes publicly sometimes.

[LGR4GM]

17 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:

Oh no no no. I think if you look around I rave about Cozens. great pick. I thought he wasn't really the typical JBot type player and I was glad for that. I'm just saying at the draft I suggested Dach if he fell to us as the pick. Like I'm saying about Sanderson now. I'm not sure if Cozens will be better than Dach though. Dach is looking pretty good right now. 

I actually think Cozens will be better, but certainly could fall short of Dach. I think Cozens has more tools at this disposal compared to Dach but he still as to put those together. 

Edited August 28, 2020 by LGR4GM

[Ducky]

 Liiga pre-season stats:

Lundell: 5 games, 3 goals, 1 assist (44.8 Corsi%)

Our boy Heinola put up a 75% Corsi share in the first exhition game.

 

[LGR4GM]

12 minutes ago, IKnowPhysics said:

My progressive self usually would agree with you: "Of course size doesn't matter, scoring matters.  Size is an archaic metric for the old timers' leftover memories of clutch-and-grab hockey."

There are plenty of anecdotes that back up that thinking (St Louis, Gaudreau, et al).  And there's some data: higher weight correlated to higher P/GP, but only in the 1967-1979 era, not the 2005-2012 era:

https://www.thestar.com/sports/hockey/2014/03/13/hockey_analytics_does_size_really_matter_in_the_nhl.html

But if I'm being truly progressive, it's the data that matters, not anecdotal thinking, and that analysis isn't sufficient to answer the question of drafting size.  So a deeper dive is worthwhile.  A 2015 stats study of CHL players transitioning into the NHL looked into it.  It defines "success" as 200 NHL GP (not perfect, but a start).

https://canucksarmy.com/2015/01/27/size-does-matter-defencemen/

It concludes that while scoring in the CHL doesn't guarantee success in the NHL, not scoring in the CHL pretty much guarantees a lack of NHL success.  It also observes that among players that do score in the CHL, the percentage of success is higher for players with taller heights.  This was found to be true for forwards and defensemen separately (the article for forwards, although cited by several analytics journal articles, is since defunct):

(height in cm is across the top row [183cm is 6'0"], P/GP in CHL is down the left column, percentages are of all 17 year old CHL players with 10 CHL GP that year that went on to play >=200 games in the NHL)

Defensemen:

The percentages and spread of percentages across height and P/GP for forwards are likely different, but the conclusions are the same.  However, the percentages this concept is based on, if it they hold up, only hold for large numbers of selections, not the individual.

So what do you do to maximize the odds?  Draft size or draft scoring?  Well, both.  And if you can't get one, you get the other.  So if other teams take size, you could find value in scoring, and vice versa. 

Additionally, since those models were published, more advanced models have been developed.  Josh Weissbock developed Prospect Cohort Success, and then was hired by the Panthers in 2016.  Jeremy Davis built Prospect Graduation Probability System and started a pay site, but still publishes publicly sometimes.

Knew about Weissbock but did not know about Davis. I will have to look him up. 

You are hitting on a few key points, for myself when I look at these guys. If you aren't scoring in juniors you aren't suddenly going to score in the NHL. We actually see the cutoff I mentioned in your numbers (I would bet money for forwards it is different) with a major dropoff below 5'10" and I will say for defenders I do prefer 5'11" to 6'2" as my average range. This is good stuff, if you find the numbers for forwards, I would love to look. For the record, Jarvis falls into that 33.33% range but I wish they had another range of 1.0ppg so we could see what that changed. Rossi and Jarvis are more than .25 above there highest number in this chart. 

 

[LGR4GM]

19 minutes ago, IKnowPhysics said:

https://canucksarmy.com/2015/01/27/size-does-matter-defencemen/

It concludes that while scoring in the CHL doesn't guarantee success in the NHL, not scoring in the CHL pretty much guarantees a lack of NHL success.  It also observes that among players that do score in the CHL, the percentage of success is higher for players with taller heights.  This was found to be true for forwards and defensemen separately (the article for forwards, although cited by several analytics journal articles, is since defunct):

 

I do want to highlight this. The list of guys in the modern era (post 2004) who don't score in juniors but are NHL players is extremely LOW. It is why you don't pass up scoring talent for "might score in their D1 year if they do x, y, z". 

[LGR4GM]

I did find this

I don't have time to fully read the article now but here you go

http://www.depthockeyanalytics.com/uncategorized/living-large-and-in-the-past-more-on-size-in-the-nhl/

[LGR4GM]

 

 

Edited August 28, 2020 by LGR4GM

[LGR4GM]

Jarvis was 6th on that list and keep in mind it's not just first year draft guys. 

[Ducky]

3 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

 

 

Berard is 5' 9" and 152 lbs? He'd have to gain 25 lbs to be called small. Rossi is the same height and 30 lbs. heavier!

Maybe if he were there in the 4th round.

Edited August 28, 2020 by Ducky

[Zamboni]

13 minutes ago, Ducky said:

 

Maybe if he were there in the 4th round.

Imagine if that way of thinking happened with these guys ...

P. Kane 5’ 10”
B. Marchand 5’ 9”
J. Gaudreau 5’ 9”
B. Point 5’ 10”
A. DeBrincat 5’ 7”
T. Krug 5’ 9”
J. Marchessault 5’ 9“
C. Atkinson 5’ 8“
M. Zuccarello 5’ 8“
R. Ellis 5’ 10”

There’s many more as you know who have made loooong NHL careers who are productive, effective, and  “small”. Some are even HOF’ers.

 

[LGR4GM]

45 minutes ago, Zamboni said:

Imagine if that way of thinking happened with these guys ...

P. Kane 5’ 10”
B. Marchand 5’ 9”
J. Gaudreau 5’ 9”
B. Point 5’ 10”
A. DeBrincat 5’ 7”
T. Krug 5’ 9”
J. Marchessault 5’ 9“
C. Atkinson 5’ 8“
M. Zuccarello 5’ 8“
R. Ellis 5’ 10”

There’s many more as you know who have made loooong NHL careers who are productive, effective, and  “small”. Some are even HOF’ers.

 

It did happen with them. Pretty sure all we're under drafted. Think Kane might be the only exception. 

[Zamboni]

13 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

It did happen with them. Pretty sure all we're under drafted. Think Kane might be the only exception. 

I was referring to 4th (or later) round drafted.

i think just because a guy is on the small side, doesn’t mean he doesn’t earn and deserve to be drafted in earlier rounds. The small guy COULD go on to have a very good career. Like the ones I listed (and many others). Just my O. 
?‍♂️

Edited August 29, 2020 by Zamboni

[Ducky]

2 hours ago, Zamboni said:

Imagine if that way of thinking happened with these guys ...

P. Kane 5’ 10”
B. Marchand 5’ 9”
J. Gaudreau 5’ 9”
B. Point 5’ 10”
A. DeBrincat 5’ 7”
T. Krug 5’ 9”
J. Marchessault 5’ 9“
C. Atkinson 5’ 8“
M. Zuccarello 5’ 8“
R. Ellis 5’ 10”

There’s many more as you know who have made loooong NHL careers who are productive, effective, and  “small”. Some are even HOF’ers.

 

He is ranked #1 on that list I commented on...ahead of Laf, ahead of Rossi.

Too much banana bread to look it up but are any of them 152 lbs?

[Andrew Amerk]

4 hours ago, Ducky said:

Berard is 5' 9" and 152 lbs? He'd have to gain 25 lbs to be called small. Rossi is the same height and 30 lbs. heavier!

Maybe if he were there in the 4th round.

Gretzky only weighed 160 when he started his rookie season. 

[PerreaultForever]

6 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Jarvis was 6th on that list and keep in mind it's not just first year draft guys. 

We won't be picking him at #8 I'm pretty sure of that so let me ask you, if he's still available at say 12-15 or so what would you trade for that pick? We don't have a lot of spare parts that people would offer first round picks for. 

6 minutes ago, Andrew Amerk said:

Gretzky only weighed 160 when he started his rookie season. 

Pretty big exception to the rule. His brother, also small, had good junior numbers too. 

[Andrew Amerk]

4 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:

We won't be picking him at #8 I'm pretty sure of that so let me ask you, if he's still available at say 12-15 or so what would you trade for that pick? We don't have a lot of spare parts that people would offer first round picks for. 

Pretty big exception to the rule. His brother, also small, had good junior numbers too. 

HUGE exception to the rule. 
 

Especially considering the league wasnt full of 235lb gorillas at that time. But, he was still very small! 

[PerreaultForever]

2 hours ago, Andrew Amerk said:

Especially considering the league wasnt full of 235lb gorillas at that time. But, he was still very small! 

It wasn't? I mean i guess a lot of them weighed less but it was a rough league, they didn't put Semenko on his wing for no reason. 

[LGR4GM]