So #8

[LGR4GM]

10 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Sorry for sidestepping the current debate, but Holtz is a safer pick than Lundell. 

He will score goals in the NHL. The question is will he be a 25/20 man or a 40/70.

You're probably right. 

[Thorner]

38 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Sorry for sidestepping the current debate, but Holtz is a safer pick than Lundell. 

He will score goals in the NHL. The question is will he be a 25/20 man or a 40/70.

How much more likely is it that Holtz scores 40? Cause I'd rather have a defensive minutes-eating 45 point "3"C than a 25 goal winger 

Jimmy Vesey is a 20 goal winger and therefore too dangerous close to that potential projection for me. 

On a side note, to clarify, those projections are 25g 20a, and 40g...70a? Or 40/70 goal man? 

Edited August 17, 2020 by Thorny

[Two or less]

5 hours ago, Curt said:

What, in your opinion, does Lundell do better than Rossi?

For me, I think that Lundell has better size and maybe a better shot.

They both have great hockey IQ and defensive game.  Both should definitely be able to stay at C.

Rossi is a better skater, better playmaker, and has better puck skills in general.

I think that they both have a pretty high floor, but Rossi has a higher ceiling.  For me, Rossi is the 3rd best prospect in this draft and I think it would be borderline crazy to draft Lundell ahead of him.

I do like Rossi, but what worries me most about him is he doesn't have elite speed and his size. How many centers in the NHL are successful with his size? Not many. Players who have success at his size on the wing like Johnny Gaudreau usually have elite speed. Also while he put up crazy numbers last season in the OHL, he also played with another top 15 pick in Jack Quinn.

[Two or less]

1 hour ago, Thorny said:

How much more likely is it that Holtz scores 40? Cause I'd rather have a defensive minutes-eating 45 point "3"C than a 25 goal winger 

Jimmy Vesey is a 20 goal winger and therefore too dangerous close to that potential projection for me. 

On a side note, to clarify, those projections are 25g 20a, and 40g...70a? Or 40/70 goal man? 

Any time i hear scouts talk about Holtz, they compare him to Filip Forsberg. So you're looking at a 50-60pt guy with the occasional good season with 30+ goals and nearing 70pts.

[Curt]

2 hours ago, Reino23 said:

I do like Rossi, but what worries me most about him is he doesn't have elite speed and his size. How many centers in the NHL are successful with his size? Not many. Players who have success at his size on the wing like Johnny Gaudreau usually have elite speed. Also while he put up crazy numbers last season in the OHL, he also played with another top 15 pick in Jack Quinn.

Some NHL C’s around his size are JP Pageau, Brayden Point, Vincent Trochek, Max Domi, Noel Accairi, Blake Lizotte, Alex Kerfoot, Jack Hughes, Tyler Johnson.  I’m sure I missed a couple.  Even going back to the last good Sabres team, they were led by two C’s about Rossi’s size Briere and Drury.  Not all those guys have elite top speed.  Same for the wingers that size really.

How many C’s dominate their junior league in their draft year, but then fail because of their height?  That’s the real question.

Rossi is short, but not weak.  He is thick, very strongly built, like a Drury, not a Briere.

His skating is very very good, it’s a strength of his game.  His acceleration, short area quickness, agility, and strength on his skates are great.  I would say those are all more important than top speed.  Even so, Rossi’s top speed is still probably above NHL average.

Top skating speed is one of the more overrated aspects of skating.  Players do a lot more starting, stopping, changing direction, turning, cutting than blowing halfway across the rink in a straight line, at full speed.

Regarding Jack Quinn, you may be aware, but they actually did not play together at ES, and Rossi put up elite #’s at ES.

I just think that when you look at all the factors, height is the only real deficit.  I believe that his great skating combined with the fact that he is actually very strong for his height are going to allow all his other talents to play through, despite his height.

And I’m actually going to ask the same question that I did in my last post:  What do you think Lundell is better at than Rossi?

Edited August 17, 2020 by Curt

[dudacek]

3 hours ago, Thorny said:

How much more likely is it that Holtz scores 40? Cause I'd rather have a defensive minutes-eating 45 point "3"C than a 25 goal winger 

Jimmy Vesey is a 20 goal winger and therefore too dangerous close to that potential projection for me. 

On a side note, to clarify, those projections are 25g 20a, and 40g...70a? Or 40/70 goal man? 

Yes, sorry 25 goals, 45 points, 40 goals 70 points.

I'm with you on liking an O'Reilly-type better than a Vanek type. But the point I'm trying to make is there is a much higher chance Holtz is Thomas Vanek than Lundell is Ryan O'Reilly. And there is much higher chance Lundell is Johan Larsson than there is that Holtz is Jimmy Vesey.

Holtz is a very safe bet to be a top 6 forward. He is consensus best goal scorer in the draft. I haven't read a projection that doubts he will score goals in the NHL.

 

2 hours ago, Reino23 said:

Any time i hear scouts talk about Holtz, they compare him to Filip Forsberg. So you're looking at a 50-60pt guy with the occasional good season with 30+ goals and nearing 70pts.

 

Edited August 17, 2020 by dudacek

[Weave]

8 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

There's 100 times the shame. Your only job as a scout is to get this pick right. This is the type of attitude that gets you Johnson instead of Kaliyev.

You should all demand more from the Sabres drafts.

Draft picks are lottery tickets.  At 8 it isn’t much more than a coin flip that the player hits the 100 NHL games threshold. 
 

I agree that one of us needs to adjust out expectations.  I’m pretty good with what I expect out of a draft pick.  It’s why my excitement is quite tempered over the draft.

[Curt]

1 hour ago, Weave said:

Draft picks are lottery tickets.  At 8 it isn’t much more than a coin flip that the player hits the 100 NHL games threshold. 
 

I agree that one of us needs to adjust out expectations.  I’m pretty good with what I expect out of a draft pick.  It’s why my excitement is quite tempered over the draft.

I understand what you are saying, and in one sense you are right, but lottery tickets is a bad metaphor.  It’s not dumb luck that the organization has no control over.  There are actually reasons that players succeed or fail.  The decisions that an organization makes can help them to identify and select more players who will go on to success.  That’s why you see many organizations consistently performing above or below average in the draft.  It’s a skill game with elements of luck mixed in.  It’s not lottery tickets, it’s blackjack.

[MakeSabresGrr8Again]

10 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

There's 100 times the shame. Your only job as a scout is to get this pick right. This is the type of attitude that gets you Johnson instead of Kaliyev.

You should all demand more from the Sabres drafts.

You don't just magically get an elite team because your 4th line center could play 3rd line center. You should take the most talented player, not the safest. 

Hahaha......like I said, you're impossible. 

I'm done. I used to value your opinion very highly (still do to a point, but that would go in the Religion thread, hahaha). But I'm done trying to actually converse with you because of your nonsense.

Edited August 17, 2020 by MakeSabresGrr8Again

[LGR4GM]

26 minutes ago, MakeSabresGrr8Again said:

Hahaha......like I said, you're impossible. 

I'm done. I used to value your opinion very highly (still do to a point, but that would go in the Religion thread, hahaha). But I'm done trying to actually converse with you because of your nonsense.

There's a reason you will not see me in the religion thread so feel free to make your joke there. I have now tried multiple times to respond to what you are saying. 

[LGR4GM]

2 hours ago, Weave said:

Draft picks are lottery tickets.  At 8 it isn’t much more than a coin flip that the player hits the 100 NHL games threshold. 
 

I agree that one of us needs to adjust out expectations.  I’m pretty good with what I expect out of a draft pick.  It’s why my excitement is quite tempered over the draft.

This is the wrong way to view the draft. If this were true, we could just take the central scouting rankings and compile them together and draft off that list. There would be no need for scouting. 

I would suggest looking at Carolina and Tampa Bay. Both teams have been excellent at drafting finding 2 or more NHL players which is the magic number. They have also find better players such as Aho, Point, Cirelli, Slavin, Paquette, Gusev etc... outside of the first round. Tampa Bay was a master class in several of those drafts on how to draft. LA Kings are a prime example of a drafting turn around. Their 2019 class was masterful. 

The draft has an element of luck but to basically toss it all up to that luck is, honestly frustrating to read when you see the mountain of easy mistakes the Sabres have made in the last 5 years. Everything from my often mentioned to recent stupidity. The NHL draft requires a holistic approach and not the old school, old boys club, old old old, approach that the Sabres have implemented since basically forever. Any draft analysis that gets you Johnson instead of Kaliyev isn't because of luck. 

[LGR4GM]

6 hours ago, dudacek said:

Yes, sorry 25 goals, 45 points, 40 goals 70 points.

I'm with you on liking an O'Reilly-type better than a Vanek type. But the point I'm trying to make is there is a much higher chance Holtz is Thomas Vanek than Lundell is Ryan O'Reilly. And there is much higher chance Lundell is Johan Larsson than there is that Holtz is Jimmy Vesey.

Holtz is a very safe bet to be a top 6 forward. He is consensus best goal scorer in the draft. I haven't read a projection that doubts he will score goals in the NHL.

I think Lundell v Holtz for teams will come down to wants/needs.  A team in need of a center will probably lean towards Lundell but a team in need of scoring will lean Holtz. I have warmed up to Holtz as time has gone on. I think his game is more rounded than I thought and if he can iron out some of his skating (it's good but could be better) I think he has a good NHL career ahead of him. I think his ceiling is higher than Lundell's because Holtz could be a 40g, 40a winger and Lundell IMPO is more of a 25pt, 25a center. 

 

 

Edited August 17, 2020 by LGR4GM

[LGR4GM]

8 hours ago, Reino23 said:

I do like Rossi, but what worries me most about him is he doesn't have elite speed and his size. How many centers in the NHL are successful with his size? Not many. Players who have success at his size on the wing like Johnny Gaudreau usually have elite speed. Also while he put up crazy numbers last season in the OHL, he also played with another top 15 pick in Jack Quinn.

Rossi was on the top line and Quinn on the 2nd. They did play pp minutes together. It is 100% worth thinking about their impact on eachother and how much that mattered, my example would be Sean Monahan who had no one on his team and was involved in like 70% of his teams total goals. 

[MakeSabresGrr8Again]

46 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

There's a reason you will not see me in the religion thread so feel free to make your joke there. I have now tried multiple times to respond to what you are saying. 

You aren't responding to what I'm saying, you are making up what I'm saying with totally a**inine Shiite.

And don't even pretend to know what I was talking about with the Religion thread.

 

[LGR4GM]

18 minutes ago, MakeSabresGrr8Again said:

You aren't responding to what I'm saying, you are making up what I'm saying with totally a**inine Shiite.

And don't even pretend to know what I was talking about with the Religion thread.

 

I literally have no idea what you are talking about and am not trying to pretend anything. It is a thread I don't think I have ever posted in or actually read. There is a reason I don't, a very basic reason and I will leave it at that unless you care to press the issue. 

You tell me what you were saying and I will respond, if not I no longer care. 

Edited August 17, 2020 by LGR4GM

[dudacek]

4 hours ago, Weave said:

Draft picks are lottery tickets.  At 8 it isn’t much more than a coin flip that the player hits the 100 NHL games threshold. 
 

I agree that one of us needs to adjust out expectations.  I’m pretty good with what I expect out of a draft pick.  It’s why my excitement is quite tempered over the draft.

It’s actually closer to 80 per cent.

And the more important part is that pick 8 is pretty much a guaranteed opportunity to take a core player, and that’s why proper evaluation is so important.

Your scouts have to identify it’s Kopitar not Setoguchi, Couture not Hamill, Ellis not Glennie, Trouba not Pouliot, and Sergachev not Nylander.

[JohnC]

40 minutes ago, dudacek said:

It’s actually closer to 80 per cent.

And the more important part is that pick 8 is pretty much a guaranteed opportunity to take a core player, and that’s why proper evaluation is so important.

Your scouts have to identify it’s Kopitar not Setoguchi, Couture not Hamill, Ellis not Glennie, Trouba not Pouliot, and Sergachev not Nylander.

If pick 8 is likely to become a core player (I agree with your assessment) then that pick has value in a deal to bring back a core player in a trade for immediate help. The Sabre organization has to exhibit urgency this offseason to immediately get better and become a more serious contending team with other teams in its conference who are rebuilding on the fly and getting better at a faster pace. The Flyers and the Rangers are a case in point. 

[LGR4GM]

6 minutes ago, JohnC said:

If pick 8 is likely to become a core player (I agree with your assessment) then that pick has value in a deal to bring back a core player in a trade for immediate help. The Sabre organization has to exhibit urgency this offseason to immediately get better and become a more serious contending team with other teams in its conference who are rebuilding on the fly and getting better at a faster pace. The Flyers and the Rangers are a case in point. 

Idk about the Rangers but the Flyers have drafted well for several years. 

Rangers still draft kinda meh and are super lucky to have received 2 top 2 picks in the last 2 years. They also have been able to add a couple high ends UFA's because NYC. 

Unless we are getting exactly what we need, we shouldn't trade that pick. 

[JohnC]

9 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Idk about the Rangers but the Flyers have drafted well for several years. 

Rangers still draft kinda meh and are super lucky to have received 2 top 2 picks in the last 2 years. They also have been able to add a couple high ends UFA's because NYC. 

Unless we are getting exactly what we need, we shouldn't trade that pick. 

If the Sabres can use that pick for either an individual or package deal for a second line player then it needs to be dealt. I'm usually a staunch believer in keeping your high picks to build a roster in all of the major sports. However, the Sabres are in a situation where the organization has to exhibit urgency to get better to its battered and moribund fanbase. This offseason the front office needs to make aggressive moves to jolt this franchise upwards. Using that pick to acquire an established young second line player needs to be part of their upgrade strategy. 

[LGR4GM]

Just now, JohnC said:

If the Sabres can use that pick for either an individual or package deal for a second line player then it needs to be dealt. I'm usually a staunch believer in keeping your high picks to build a roster in all of the major sports. However, the Sabres are in a situation where the organization has to exhibit urgency to get better to its battered and moribund fanbase. This offseason the front office needs to make aggressive moves to jolt this franchise upwards. Using that pick to acquire an established young second line player needs to be part of their upgrade strategy. 

This is the same argument that was made in 2015 as well. There's a very short list of players that this is acceptable for because it isn't just a 2nd line player. It has to be a 2nd line player under 24 who is 100% a 2nd line player without a doubt aka Cirelli. 

[mjd1001]

17 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Idk about the Rangers but the Flyers have drafted well for several years. 

Rangers still draft kinda meh and are super lucky to have received 2 top 2 picks in the last 2 years. They also have been able to add a couple high ends UFA's because NYC. 

Unless we are getting exactly what we need, we shouldn't trade that pick. 

I agree.

Building through the draft usually works better than trading draft picks for 'ready now' guys.  A small part of the problem the sabres have is that Tim Murray was intent on 'speeding up' the rebuild.  The bigger problem they have is they haven't drafted well.  You say the rangers were luck to have 2 top 2 picks in 2 years?  Remember the Sabres had 3 top 2 picks in 4 years....with 1 of them considered a 'generationa' player in Dahlin..and another that was taken 2nd considered a play that in most years would have been #1 overall.

The solution to bad drafting in the past is to draft better in the present and in the future...it is not to give up on drafting.

Most people know this, but look at just who the Sabres drafted in the first 2 round over the past decade that are average at best or maybe total busts....Pysyk, Armia, Grigorenko, Girgensons, McCabe, Risto, Zadarov, Compher, Hurley, Bailey, Lemieux, Cornell, Karabacek, Guhle, Nylander, Asplund, Middelstadt, Davidson, Samuelson.......and who do they have that is good? Eichel, Reinhart, Dahlin?  When you are drafting in the top 10 of the first round quite a bit, you need more 'hits' than just the guys you draft #1 or #2 overall. 

The drafting in the past IS the Sabres problem...and there is no fixing what has happened in the past. You need to hit on some future picks..not trade future picks to mid-level roster players.

 

 

[JohnC]

1 minute ago, LGR4GM said:

This is the same argument that was made in 2015 as well. There's a very short list of players that this is acceptable for because it isn't just a 2nd line player. It has to be a 2nd line player under 24 who is 100% a 2nd line player without a doubt aka Cirelli. 

I am not suggesting a deal for the sake of a deal. It has to make sense. I would love to acquire Cirelli in a deal. I know Tampa is very much squeezed with the cap but they are a smartly run franchise that will keep this talented player. If option A isn't available then there should be other option B's that will suffice and be less costly.  

[LGR4GM]

5 minutes ago, JohnC said:

I am not suggesting a deal for the sake of a deal. It has to make sense. I would love to acquire Cirelli in a deal. I know Tampa is very much squeezed with the cap but they are a smartly run franchise that will keep this talented player. If option A isn't available then there should be other option B's that will suffice and be less costly.  

Tampa is running out of ways to keep their talented players. They painted themselves into a very tight corner that unless they get 2 NTC guys to waive, they are screwed. 

[JohnC]

1 minute ago, LGR4GM said:

Tampa is running out of ways to keep their talented players. They painted themselves into a very tight corner that unless they get 2 NTC guys to waive, they are screwed. 

I want you to be right with respect to retaining Cirelli. But my money is on them keeping him. If they can't I'm sure that they will manufacture a deal that gives them a very good return. 

[dudacek]

15 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

This is the same argument that was made in 2015 as well. There's a very short list of players that this is acceptable for because it isn't just a 2nd line player. It has to be a 2nd line player under 24 who is 100% a 2nd line player without a doubt aka Cirelli. 

Monahan fits for me too, at 25, but Im basically on board with this.