SabreSpace Trade Proposal: Cozens and 8th for Cirelli

[kas23]

3 hours ago, Xzy89c said:

What is Johnson contract?  I think this is the biggest issue.  we have enough crap contracts.

Johnson has a $5M cap hit for the next 4 seasons. Taking on players like him has never worked out for us. If we were ever going to relieve TB of this problem, a great asset(s) has to be coming along with him. That said, I’m sure there will be at least 1 GM of a bottom feeder that will take him off their hands. This is how bottom feeders stay bottom feeders. 

[Curt]

13 minutes ago, SwampD said:

He's not trolling. He's just saying in a round about way that the 31 1st line centers in the league are definitely not the 31 best centers in the league.

I wasn’t referring to sabresparaavida regarding the T word.  I was referring to the xzy guy.

[sabresparaavida]

34 minutes ago, Curt said:

1) Pretty sure this guy is trolling.

2) There need to be 31 #1 centers.  It doesn’t make any logical sense otherwise.  If there are only 25 #1 C’s, are there then 37 #2 C’s, or are there also only 25 of those too?

Don’t get me wrong, quite a few of the leagues 31 #1 C’s are probably the #2  C on good teams.  I just think that the 31 best C’s In the NHL should be considered #1 C’s for the delineation to make sense.

I'm thinking about it this way: We have no 2C according to pretty much everyone, including us. But obviously, we would have a player in the 2C position. I think there are ~27 1Cs players: the cutoff is where a typical playoff roster would struggle to make the playoffs with the 28th as their 1C. 28-31 would be terrible 1Cs, great 2 C's. The next 31 go till you reach a situation like the Sabres with Johanson or maybe Larsson- a good 3C, a terrible 2C. This player would be the difference between a wildcard roster and a barely missed team.  

 

I have not researched enough to prove this idea,  but it is a general idea that I have.

 

7 minutes ago, Curt said:

I wasn’t referring to sabresparaavida regarding the T word.  I was referring to the xzy guy.

Oh, okay. I thought you were saying I was trolling when I saw this post, decided to actually explain my reasoning to show I wasn't trolling.

[Curt]

30 minutes ago, sabresparaavida said:

I'm thinking about it this way: We have no 2C according to pretty much everyone, including us. But obviously, we would have a player in the 2C position. I think there are ~27 1Cs players: the cutoff is where a typical playoff roster would struggle to make the playoffs with the 28th as their 1C. 28-31 would be terrible 1Cs, great 2 C's. The next 31 go till you reach a situation like the Sabres with Johanson or maybe Larsson- a good 3C, a terrible 2C. This player would be the difference between a wildcard roster and a barely missed team.  

 

I have not researched enough to prove this idea,  but it is a general idea that I have.

 

Oh, okay. I thought you were saying I was trolling when I saw this post, decided to actually explain my reasoning to show I wasn't trolling.

That’s reasonable I suppose.  All I can add is that not every #1 C can be a good #1 C.  In any grouping there will be players at the high end and low end of that group.  The guys at the low end will not be viewed as favorable options to fill the role.

[Taro T]

2 hours ago, Curt said:

1) Pretty sure this guy is trolling.

2) There need to be 31 #1 centers.  It doesn’t make any logical sense otherwise.  If there are only 25 #1 C’s, are there then 37 #2 C’s, or are there also only 25 of those too?

Don’t get me wrong, quite a few of the leagues 31 #1 C’s are probably the #2  C on good teams.  I just think that the 31 best C’s In the NHL should be considered #1 C’s for the delineation to make sense.

When people say a player is an _ line/pairing x (where _ is a 1st, 2nd, etc.) & x is the position, there is an unspoken "quality" in there.  Of course, there are 31 starting C's in the league.  There aren't anywhere CLOSE to 31 quality #1 C's out there.  There's ~10 quality #1's (and 2 teams each have 2 of them) and about another 12 or so that fulfill the task adequately.  The other 8-9 teams are SOL.

And yes, there are not 31 quality 2C's in the NHL either.  Though there are probably 40+ 3C's and likely 50-80 guys that can be 4C's legitimately.  It's why a premium gets put on top 2C's and why unless you have a guy that truly clicks with what is asked of him that people don't sweat losing a 4C very often.

Evan Rodrigues and Marcus Johansson split time as the Sabres 2C last year.  Neither even made the grade of adequate.  The Sabres have gone 2 years without a 2C.  Offense meant to E-Rod & MaJo. ? And until the Sabres fix that deficiency & also the goaltending, they are at absolute best a bubble playoff team.

There aren't 32 quality QB's in the NFL either.  IMHO there are only about 12-18 guys that deserve the label "starting QB" even though technically 32 are starters.

[Pimlach]

On 7/23/2020 at 6:24 AM, Weave said:

“It’s so crazy it just might work”

Thank you.  Because  we have had inexperienced and terrible GM’s For a long time many fans tend to think we need to overpay, then get upset when we do.  
 

Giving up Cozens and the #8 pick for Cirelli is a much crazier proposition than packaging a Risto - Cirelli trade. Timing is important.  Let’s see if Tampa can  make a run and let’s see how they look at RHD.  

 

Look at what we gave up for Hasek. To turn this ***** show around we need a GM that proposes trades that we win. I wish we can still bring in Dudley to help Adams but that seems unlikely now.  
 

 

Edited July 24, 2020 by Pimlach

[LGR4GM]

Again how does Risto with his cap hit help Tampa in any way? 

Montour and Miller make more sense for Tampa if they want a RHD.

Edited July 24, 2020 by LGR4GM

[Taro T]

48 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Again how does Risto with his cap hit help Tampa in any way? 

Montour and Miller make more sense for Tampa if they want a RHD.

Could see Ristolainen being the centerpiece of a package to get Cirelli.  But most likely 1st he'd have to be traded for a batch of prospects/picks that Tampa would be interested in.

The only way they go for Risto straight up (discounting minor pieces of a potential trade) is if they believe their D is so thin that it HAS to be addressed and since C is a position of strength for them they'd rather spend the ~$5MM on an RHD than a 3C (on THEIR team) & they'll fix the cap with other moves.  That is far less likely.

[Xzy89c]

was not trolling.  

#1 pitchers and #1 Centers are rare commodities.  There are not many of them.  Cozens has no chance of being one.  Sabres are lucky to have Eichel.  Maybe 7 or 8 more true number one center types in entire league.  

[LGR4GM]

10 minutes ago, Xzy89c said:

was not trolling.  

#1 pitchers and #1 Centers are rare commodities.  There are not many of them.  Cozens has no chance of being one.  Sabres are lucky to have Eichel.  Maybe 7 or 8 more true number one center types in entire league.  

You mean elite #1 centers. 

Cozens has a low chance of being that, I would agree but he does have a chance of being a 70-80pt center which is really good. 

[Pimlach]

16 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Again how does Risto with his cap hit help Tampa in any way? 

Montour and Miller make more sense for Tampa if they want a RHD.

I prefer we move Montour instead of Risto, and I posted that. Risto would be a fall back in the negotiations since Tampa was rumored to be interested in him.  Start with Montour/Miller for sure.  
 

[LGR4GM]

Just now, Pimlach said:

I prefer we move Montour instead of Risto, and I posted that. Risto would be a fall back in the negotiations since Tampa was rumored to be interested in him.  Start with Montour/Miller for sure.  
 

I am just saying even if they want Risto, he doesn't really help their cap situation which IMPO is a need. 

[dudacek]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

Again how does Risto with his cap hit help Tampa in any way? 

Montour and Miller make more sense for Tampa if they want a RHD.

 

9 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I am just saying even if they want Risto, he doesn't really help their cap situation which IMPO is a need. 

If you accept the premise that Tampa likes Risto as a player and don’t think Risto + a prospect or pick for Killorn and Johnson (or something similar) doesn’t help Tampa address issues both on and off the ice, I don’t know what to tell you.

Sure, either Miller or Montour works there as well. I know I’d rather ship one of them instead.

 Maybe Tampa likes Risto better? Krueger does. I do too.

[nfreeman]

36 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Could see Ristolainen being the centerpiece of a package to get Cirelli.  But most likely 1st he'd have to be traded for a batch of prospects/picks that Tampa would be interested in.

The only way they go for Risto straight up (discounting minor pieces of a potential trade) is if they believe their D is so thin that it HAS to be addressed and since C is a position of strength for them they'd rather spend the ~$5MM on an RHD than a 3C (on THEIR team) & they'll fix the cap with other moves.  That is far less likely.

The other possibility is the one @dudacek mentioned upthread -- i.e. TB unloads 2 of its big salaries in exchange for Risto (probably plus cheap sweeteners), thereby gaining a net improvement against the cap of $4MM or more.  Not super-likely, but not crazy either.

[LGR4GM]

14 minutes ago, dudacek said:

 

If you accept the premise that Tampa likes Risto as a player and don’t think Risto + a prospect or pick for Killorn and Johnson (or something similar) doesn’t help Tampa address issues both on and off the ice, I don’t know what to tell you.

Sure, either Miller or Montour works there as well. I know I’d rather ship one of them instead.

 Maybe Tampa likes Risto better? Krueger does. I do too.

Both of these players have full NTC. Why would they waive them to leave Tampa?

That is my entire issue with this. All of these players that we could trade Risto for have NTC with the exception of Cirelli. Why are these guys going to waive?

[dudacek]

33 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Both of these players have full NTC. Why would they waive them to leave Tampa?

That is my entire issue with this. All of these players that we could trade Risto for have NTC with the exception of Cirelli. Why are these guys going to waive?

LOL. I guess Tampa is going to ice a team of three lines and four defencemen next year.

Because according to Sabrespace they won’t trade Cirelli or Sergachev or Point, and they can’t trade anyone else.

 

I don’t think most people are clearly grasping Tampa’s situation. They have about 5.5 million in space and 15 players signed. They have just three defencemen under contract, none of them are right handed. Unless they reach even higher up their roster, they will have to trade at least two of Sergachev, Cernak, Cirelli, Killorn, Gourde, Johnson and Palat. The latter four all have NTCs.

(Killorn’s isn’t a full clause, by the way, it’s a partial and he will almost certainly be dealt)
 

Your question is certainly relevant, but it misses the bigger picture. Something has got to give. Tampa is in a bind and will be looking at every option. They have to. 

And the Sabres need to be pushing hard to take advantage.

If you were Tampa what would you do?

Edited July 24, 2020 by dudacek

[LGR4GM]

3 minutes ago, dudacek said:

LOL. I guess Tampa is going to ice a team of three lines and four defencemen next year.

Because according to Sabrespace they won’t trade Cirelli or Sergachev or Point, and they can’t trade anyone else.

 

I don’t think most people are clearly grasping Tampa’s situation. They have about 5.5 million in space and 15 players signed. They have just three defencemen under contract, none of them are right handed. Unless they reach even higher up their roster, they will have to trade at least two of Sergachev, Cernak, Cirelli, Killorn, Gourde, Johnson and Palat. The latter four all have NTCs.

(Killorn’s isn’t a full clause, by the way, it’s a partial and he will almost certainly be dealt)
 

Your question is certainly relevant, but it misses the bigger picture. Something has got to give. Tampa is in a bind and will be looking at every option. They have to.

And the Sabres need to be pushing hard to take advantage.

I fully grasp it, i just don't see how they convince the NTC players to leave. 

[dudacek]

8 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I fully grasp it, i just don't see how they convince the NTC players to leave. 

So what would you do?

I’d be fishing to see what kind of future rich offers I can get for Point, Cirelli, Sergachev and Cernak because they are my only chips worth something in this market.

Id be be shopping Killorn, Palat, Johnson and Gourde to see what kind of returns I’d get, which won’t be much with a flat cap, and considering approaching them about waiving.

And I’d be checking the market for right-handed defencemen, preferably top 4 at a low cap hit.

And then I make my moves based on what the market dictates because I have to make moves to fill out my roster and get under the cap.

Not a rhetorical question: what would you do?

Edited July 24, 2020 by dudacek

[LGR4GM]

7 minutes ago, dudacek said:

So what would you do?

I’d be fishing to see what kind of future rich offers I can get for Point, Cirelli, Sergachev and Cernak because they are my only chips worth something in this market.

Id be be shopping Killorn, Palat, Johnson and Gourde to see what kind of returns I’d get, which won’t be much with a flat cap, and considering approaching them about waiving.

And I’d be checking the market for right-handed defencemen, preferably top 4 at a low cap hit.

And then I make my moves based on what the market dictates because I have to make moves to fill out my roster and get under the cap.

Not a rhetorical question: what would you do?

If I were Tampa, I am desperately trying to trade one of the NTC guys if possible. I would take below market value if there was a team they would except a trade too. I have to sign Cirelli and Sergachev so that would be my priority. I bridge both for 2 years so I can give them better deals then. I am looking at Miller or Montour or Jokiharju from Buffalo if I have to trade Cirelli as a starting point. 

[steveoath]

IMPO tampas ask for cirelli is at least Joki. They need low cost players. 

[dudacek]

Point and Killorn for Cozens, #8, Jokiharju (and $10 million to re-sign your RFAs). Or, alternatively, substitute Cirelli for Point and Mittelstadt for Cozens.

Will Tampa get any better offers to solve their roster/cap problems?

As a Sabre fan, would you do either deal?

 

[DarthEbriate]

19 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I’d be fishing to see what kind of future rich offers I can get for Point, Cirelli, Sergachev and Cernak because they are my only chips worth something in this market.

This. They had a great core and then movement-claused themselves in between a rock and a hard place when the kids exceeded expectations and are ready to surpass their predecessors.

From a Sabres perspective --- pounce on them, but do not overpay. It's a buyer's market on TBL and others up against the cap.

[nfreeman]

I think it's worth noting that I've heard a number of agents over the years say that players will often agree to waive NTCs because they don't want to stay with a team that wants to trade them.

Now, I think those waivers are granted for specific situations that appeal to the particular players -- which often would not include waiving to be traded to the Sabres.

[steveoath]

8 minutes ago, DarthEbriate said:

This. They had a great core and then movement-claused themselves in between a rock and a hard place when the kids exceeded expectations and are ready to surpass their predecessors.

From a Sabres perspective --- pounce on them, but do not overpay. It's a buyer's market on TBL and others up against the cap.

Exactly. Tampa are not in a position to extort anyone. If GMKA can work some magic then great, but we shouldn't be giving up the most. 

[Taro T]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

If I were Tampa, I am desperately trying to trade one of the NTC guys if possible. I would take below market value if there was a team they would except a trade too. I have to sign Cirelli and Sergachev so that would be my priority. I bridge both for 2 years so I can give them better deals then. I am looking at Miller or Montour or Jokiharju from Buffalo if I have to trade Cirelli as a starting point. 

My gut says they'll get out of 2 of the older guys' contracts by essentially asking them where they'd like to play if they aren't in TB and then essentially giving the player to that team for next to nothing as what TB gets in return is cap space & the ability to keep Sergachev & Cirelli & Cernak which overall "keeps the band together" longer than trading the RFA's away for market value worth of prospects & picks.

Our fanbase, and every other fanbase of teams with GM's that "weren't smart enough to beat that offer," will collectively lose our collective marbles over the vast unfairness of it all.  Hopefully St. Louis isn't one of the winner's of TB's "we're buying a new boat, want the old one cheap buddy" sale because had the Sabres still had O'Reilly maybe Buffalo could've gotten one of those boats that just needs some new upholstery but still run like new.  THAT would stink.  When they go anywhere elsewhere, this guy will give the old 'eh shrug' as they weren't waiving their NTC to come to the Sabres at this point in bvn time.