2C and 3C for 20-21

[dudacek]

1 hour ago, PerreaultForever said:

My comment is based on what's left in the tank, not on the past. At his age a lot of players simply lose it and he showed signs of slowing down already. Can we get a good year out of him? maybe. Is it a guarantee? i think not.

He's of an age where he can fall off at any time, but what are the signs?

He was having a better season this year than last and would have finished with close to 60 points. He had 5 points in 4 playoff games.

He's had one season under 50 points ever and that was five years ago,

And he's literally never been injured. He's missed 22 games in 16 seasons.

Edited September 17, 2020 by dudacek

[Thorner]

^Considering the physical game he plays, he's a special athlete - his fitness must be off the charts. 

Edited September 17, 2020 by Thorny

[PerreaultForever]

57 minutes ago, dudacek said:

He's of an age where he can fall off at any time, but what are the signs?

He was having a better season this year than last and would have finished with close to 60 points. He had 5 points in 4 playoff games.

He's had one season under 50 points ever and that was five years ago,

And he's literally never been injured. He's missed 22 games in 16 seasons.

I think he's showing signs of slowing down, losing his skating acceleration ability but when it goes completely so he's ineffective I have no idea. Obviously Minnesota thinks it's soon if not now.  The durability/lack of injury point is a good one. Certainly does help him stay in the game longer.

I dunno, I'm just not sure it's going to be all that different from Brian Gionta. I hope he's got something left though, that's for sure. Wait and see I guess. Fingers crossed. 

[LGR4GM]

6 hours ago, dudacek said:

He's of an age where he can fall off at any time, but what are the signs?

He was having a better season this year than last and would have finished with close to 60 points. He had 5 points in 4 playoff games.

He's had one season under 50 points ever and that was five years ago,

And he's literally never been injured. He's missed 22 games in 16 seasons.

It is unlikely. Instead of 60 points we might get 50 points or even 45 at worst but Staal will be playing most likely with Skinner so it isn't like he won't have a good winger. You could probably do Skinner - Staal - Cozens as a line and be just fine. 

 

5 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

I think he's showing signs of slowing down, losing his skating acceleration ability but when it goes completely so he's ineffective I have no idea. Obviously Minnesota thinks it's soon if not now.  The durability/lack of injury point is a good one. Certainly does help him stay in the game longer.

I dunno, I'm just not sure it's going to be all that different from Brian Gionta. I hope he's got something left though, that's for sure. Wait and see I guess. Fingers crossed. 

Gionta went from 40 points in Montreal to 35 in Buffalo. He didn't have a massive drop off, he just was never that great. 

[dudacek]

8 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

I dunno, I'm just not sure it's going to be all that different from Brian Gionta.

This is absolutely fair.

 

[Weave]

Gionta was one of those incredible skaters that can play forever.  Staal is not that guy.  I think there is a very  real risk of a precipitous dropoff.  And its a risk I think that was well worth taking given last season, and the prive we paid to get him.

[LGR4GM]

1 hour ago, Weave said:

Gionta was one of those incredible skaters that can play forever.  Staal is not that guy.  I think there is a very  real risk of a precipitous dropoff.  And its a risk I think that was well worth taking given last season, and the prive we paid to get him.

What would you say if I told you Gionta dropped off at an earlier age than Staal and dropped lower?

[DarthEbriate]

1 hour ago, Weave said:

Gionta was one of those incredible skaters that can play forever.  Staal is not that guy.  I think there is a very  real risk of a precipitous dropoff.  And its a risk I think that was well worth taking given last season, and the prive we paid to get him.

Hmmm. I would kind of look from a certain a different, nearly opposite, point-of-view. Gionta was small and fast, when he lost his step, he was still good but not at his peak level and it was a steeper drop. Staal is big and hasn't been considered "fast" in years. His decline has been slow and steady from his 1PPG point days.

If Staal had 4 years remaining I'd worry that by the end he'd be a shell, but for this year I'm thinking he'll still do just fine.

[LGR4GM]

1 minute ago, DarthEbriate said:

Hmmm. I would kind of look from a certain a different, nearly opposite, point-of-view. Gionta was small and fast, when he lost his step, he was still good but not at his peak level and it was a steeper drop. Staal is big and hasn't been considered "fast" in years. His decline has been slow and steady from his 1PPG point days.

If Staal had 4 years remaining I'd worry that by the end he'd be a shell, but for this year I'm thinking he'll still do just fine.

Steady? He's been up and down between .47 to .93 since he turned 30 and it is very random. He has generally hovered right around .70pts per game. 

[DarthEbriate]

25 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Steady? He's been up and down between .47 to .93 since he turned 30 and it is very random. He has generally hovered right around .70pts per game. 

I'm just going by points totals.

Prime: 100, 72, 82, 75, 70, 76, 70, 53 (in 48 games lockout)

Turns age 29:

61, 53, 39 (traded in-season), 65, 76, 52, 47 (in 66 games)

He's going down, but still above 50 points each season that he isn't traded or ends in COVID. It's not a precipitous drop, but overall gradual and right in line with a 2C (edit: he's either 1C/2C on a defensive-minded MIN squad the last X years, but he's not been a PP specialist to stockpile points in those years). That trade season is a serious outlier in his career. (The recent 76 as well.)

Edited September 17, 2020 by DarthEbriate

[LGR4GM]

11 minutes ago, DarthEbriate said:

I'm just going by points totals.

Prime: 100, 72, 82, 75, 70, 76, 70, 53 (in 48 games lockout)

Turns age 29:

61, 53, 39 (traded in-season), 65, 76, 52, 47 (in 66 games)

He's going down, but still above 50 points each season that he isn't traded or ends in COVID. It's not a precipitous drop, but overall gradual and right in line with a 2C (edit: he's either 1C/2C on a defensive-minded MIN squad the last X years, but he's not been a PP specialist to stockpile points in those years). That trade season is a serious outlier in his career. (The recent 76 as well.)

I am going by points adjusted for games played, so how many points per game he produced in those years. 

[PerreaultForever]

2 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Steady? He's been up and down between .47 to .93 since he turned 30 and it is very random. He has generally hovered right around .70pts per game. 

So far, but the end can come suddenly for these guys over 30. Occasionally when that happens some of them change something (diet, exercise routine etc.) and they have a small resurgence, but for others when it hits and drops off it goes fast and sudden. 

Look at Simmonds for example. Consistent 20 (even 30) goal scorer for year after year and then he just lost it when he got to the other side of 30 and you saw what was left, not a lot. Minnesota must feel that we're going to hit that point real soon. 

I still say it's a decent move if we get one good year out of him and in that sense he is there to mentor and hold that place for Cozens (?) but I wouldn't expect much more than that. 

(and don't be shocked if we sign Simmonds cheap to play beside him)

[dudacek]

11 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:

So far, but the end can come suddenly for these guys over 30. Occasionally when that happens some of them change something (diet, exercise routine etc.) and they have a small resurgence, but for others when it hits and drops off it goes fast and sudden. 

Look at Simmonds for example. Consistent 20 (even 30) goal scorer for year after year and then he just lost it when he got to the other side of 30 and you saw what was left, not a lot. Minnesota must feel that we're going to hit that point real soon. 

I still say it's a decent move if we get one good year out of him and in that sense he is there to mentor and hold that place for Cozens (?) but I wouldn't expect much more than that. 

(and don't be shocked if we sign Simmonds cheap to play beside him)

Except Simmonds didn’t suddenly lose it, he is on a steady 4-year decline: 28, 29, 32 and 31 goals to 24 to 17 to 8.

Edited September 17, 2020 by dudacek

[PerreaultForever]

5 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Except Simmonds didn’t suddenly lose it, he is on a steady 4-year decline: 28, 29, 32 and 31 goals to 24 to 17 to 8.

Not really, 24 is still in the 20s and he was injured the next year when he scored 17. The drop to 8 was a pretty sudden drop. 

[dudacek]

3 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:

Not really, 24 is still in the 20s and he was injured the next year when he scored 17. The drop to 8 was a pretty sudden drop. 

He played 79 games the year he scored 17.

He was a 30 goal scorer plus or minus 2 goals for 4 straight years. Then he dropped 7, 7 and 9, and the 9 was in a year cut short by the pandemic.

I don't know how the drop could have been steadier.

Edited September 17, 2020 by dudacek

[Curt]

23 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:

Not really, 24 is still in the 20s and he was injured the next year when he scored 17. The drop to 8 was a pretty sudden drop. 

Yeah, he was maybe playing injured (played 79 games) the year he scored 17, but that’s exactly the problem with him and why he was declining.  His body is not holding up.

Edited September 17, 2020 by Curt

[Taro T]

6 minutes ago, Curt said:

Yeah, he was maybe playing injured (played 79 games) the year he scored 17, but that’s exactly the problem with him and why he was declining.  His body is not holding up.

And while both Simmonds & Staal have a physical element to their games, one was a bruiser 1st & a playmaker/scorer 2nd & the other was viewed oppositely.   Strangely enough, the guy who was defined by his physical play had age catch up to him 1st.

Really looking forward to Staal playing useful minutes (2nd line for now, let's see if Adams has any more magic in his hat) & being able to help Eichel continue to grow into his role as a top tier talent in this league.  Evrn with the risk that Staal has hit the end (which would be surprising based on his play last month) is worth the price of a very good 3rd liner.

[Weave]

5 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

What would you say if I told you Gionta dropped off at an earlier age than Staal and dropped lower?

His points did, but he was a very effective player even with the Sabres.  His legs kept him in the league longer than his hands did.  I honestly have no idea what about Staal's game has kept him at 2C level, but when whatever it is goes away he won't have the legs Gionta did to survive it.  That's all I'm getting at.

[sweetlou]

If Stall is our 2c do we bring in another one year 3c center like Brassard or go for a younger guy like McCann or either of the Strome's?

[Curt]

19 minutes ago, sweetlou said:

If Stall is our 2c do we bring in another one year 3c center like Brassard or go for a younger guy like McCann or either of the Strome's?

My opinion, McCann.  Young, 200 ft player, upside for more offense.  Could possibly be 2C/middle-C and take on a reduced 3C role if/when Cozens really gets going.  Long term piece.

[Thorner]

4 minutes ago, Curt said:

My opinion, McCann.  Young, 200 ft player, upside for more offense.  Could possibly be 2C/middle-C and take on a reduced 3C role if/when Cozens really gets going.  Long term piece.

Eichel - Staal - McCann - Lazar 

would look pretty good. A world of improvement. 

[PerreaultForever]

2 hours ago, dudacek said:

He played 79 games the year he scored 17.

Oh you're right. i saw 62 and assumed injury but he was traded to Nashville and then totally dried up there. So i guess you can say steady decline but I'm not sure what the point is? Are you saying players do not have sudden drop offs when they age, that they always decline slowly? I don't think that's true. 

[PerreaultForever]

28 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Eichel - Staal - McCann - Lazar 

would look pretty good. A world of improvement. 

Lazar is likely 4C but is not an improvement on Larsson. McCann idk. 

[Curt]

7 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:

Lazar is likely 4C but is not an improvement on Larsson. McCann idk. 

Sure, but Larsson didn’t play normal 4C minutes.  Lazar probably would.  Stall/McCann would take up a lot of those mins that Larsson played.

[Thorner]

4 minutes ago, Curt said:

Sure, but Larsson didn’t play normal 4C minutes.  Lazar probably would.  Stall/McCann would take up a lot of those mins that Larsson played.

Right, Krueger would presumably alter his line deployment.