2020-21 Trade Rumors and Speculation

[JohnC]

10 hours ago, Curt said:

 

Kessel is an odd duck of an NHL player.  I think for him so much of his game will be dependent upon his mindset.  If he is motivated and working hard, he has all the talent to remain good for a while longer, but if he isn’t things can/will go downhill quick.

Fast is a useful middle 6 player.  He fills a position of need for Buffalo.  All depends on salary and term though.

I could absolutely see Fast being a better investment than Kessel, especially at their price points.

I am down for like 3 years of Fast, ages 29, 30, 31, at around $3M.  Is that close to reasonable?

A firm no thank you on the Kessel consideration. If you have to qualify your position on a player by saying "if he is motivated and working hard" the underlying issue and criticism of the player is that he isn't always a full effort player. The Sabres don't need that uneven attitude and play. The Sabres are far from being a good team. There are going to be predictable periods of struggle with such an incomplete team. We need players who become more resolute and fade less when times are tough. Again, no thank you on Kessel. Let another team deal with this fading odd duck. 

[Shootica]

Kessel is the complete opposite of the type of player I want them targeting.

[Thorner]

1 hour ago, nfreeman said:

Well, I think there's a wide range between Kessel's production this past season and a return all the way to his peak.  I also think that, as @Curt notes upthread, if his heart is in it -- which very well may not be the case if he finds himself on the Sabres -- and if he's on a line with credible and skilled linemates, like Skinner and Staal, that 55-60 pts is entirely possible.  OTOH, we all know to a metaphysical certainty that Fast isn't going to deliver more than 30 pts as a Sabre.

The Sabres desperately need to score more.  Fast, while certainly possessing certain qualities that Kessel lacks, isn't going to solve that problem.  Kessel represents the kind of low-cost, high-upside opportunity that doesn't come along that often and that might pay off handsomely.

 

Bolded - ?

Second part - No, Kessel represents the low-odds bet we've been accustomed to making that leads to disaster. Bet on the indisputably better, cheaper player, rather than a hope and a fantasy with the ridiculously problematic floor. 

The cost (contract) isn't low, at all. NM the trade assets to get him, whatever that is. 

This isn't even a close comparison - if they are even *close* to comparably valued players - Fast is going to cost 3 mil and Kessel costs 8 against the cap. 

Edited September 20, 2020 by Thorny

[Curt]

48 minutes ago, JohnC said:

A firm no thank you on the Kessel consideration. If you have to qualify your position on a player by saying "if he is motivated and working hard" the underlying issue and criticism of the player is that he isn't always a full effort player. The Sabres don't need that uneven attitude and play. The Sabres are far from being a good team. There are going to be predictable periods of struggle with such an incomplete team. We need players who become more resolute and fade less when times are tough. Again, no thank you on Kessel. Let another team deal with this fading odd duck. 

In general, I agree, but that’s just my perception of Kessel.  I don’t know if that’s how he really is.  He seems to be a bit odd, so maybe he just comes across that way.

I can’t say that I have a good handle on Kessel’s headspace.  Maybe someone closer to him would know more.  Maybe he has rededicated himself during these off months and is in the best shape of his life.  Maybe he has been sitting on the couch watching Netflix.  I don’t know.

[Thorner]

12 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Fast maybe; Kessel and Pietrangelo No!  Alex is already 30.  His contract becomes an albatross in 2-3 years and we didn't get his prime.  No just no.

Fast will be 29 soon and is basically a 30 pt player.  We already have a similar but more productive and younger player in Kahun.

KA did a great job of thinking out of the box and getting Staal.  He needs to continue to think that way to build a playoff team with a budget.  That likely means taking chances like going after a Puljujari (22), Galchenyuk (26), Saad (27) or similar.  Guys with talent but some warts.  I also want to see if we can convince one of the Lightning players (Johnson, Killorn, Palat or Gourde) to waive their NTC and come to Buffalo.  My guess is we can steal one for nothing more then a conditional pick and taking 75% the contract.

This has worked for us in the past.  Guys like Dumont (viewed as a failed 3rd overall pick when we got him - I also wish we had kept him), Hasek (unorthodox style made him available), Briere (we got him for Chris Gratton straight up - need I say more).  A diamond in the rough so to speak.  I'd also like to look at younger guys who might stay if it works out.  

https://www.nhltradetalk.com/brandon-saad-trade-blackhawks/

 

Don't we like Kahun? Wouldn't more, cheap Kahuns be a good thing?

[Curt]

1 hour ago, nfreeman said:

OTOH, we all know to a metaphysical certainty that Fast isn't going to deliver more than 30 pts as a Sabre.

 

2 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Bolded - ?

Good question.  How do you know that?

[GASabresIUFAN]

1 minute ago, Thorny said:

Don't we like Kahun? Wouldn't more, cheap Kahuns be a good thing?

We really like Kahun because he is still youngish and may have more upside and should be reasonable to retain.  

Signing Fast is just meh.  He is 29 and is what he is.  I’d rather save the 3 mill and give Thompson a shot.

[Thorner]

7 minutes ago, Curt said:

 

Good question.  How do you know that?

He got zero PP minutes - all his points at ES. Why couldn't Fast potentially score more, w/second line minutes, and with perhaps some PP 2 time? 

His advanced metrics vs Kessel aren't a beatdown, they are a massacre. 

4 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

We really like Kahun because he is still youngish and may have more upside and should be reasonable to retain.  

Signing Fast is just meh.  He is 29 and is what he is.  I’d rather save the 3 mill and give Thompson a shot.

I'm glad you aren't building the roster, GA, sorry. 

You don't appreciate the value of players that make it difficult for the other team to play hockey. 

A Skinner - Staal - Fast line would be orders of magnitude more beneficial to our hockey team than Skinner - Staal - Kessel. Why torpedo what would be a good line defensively, able to take tough matchups, with a player who's also going to SCORE LESS on that line?

So we can fiddle around with Phil on the PP? Nah. 

Edited September 20, 2020 by Thorny

[Thorner]

Fast is a really good hockey player, but he doesn't have a lot of empty calorie "pointz" so we don't need him. Signing the guy who'll get you a few more "pointz" hypothetically looks like signing Johansson and hoping for a career high. There is *so* much more to building a winning hockey team. 

I'd like to bring in Ehlers, too, but if that's not going to happen we should look at the best all around options, weighed against the cost to attain, not just point totals from a few years ago. 

51 minutes ago, Shootica said:

Kessel is the complete opposite of the type of player I want them targeting.

^

Edited September 20, 2020 by Thorny

[GASabresIUFAN]

@Thorny

I’m confused.  You are disagreeing with me but then agreeing that we shouldn’t sign him? 

[Thorner]

4 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

@Thorny

I’m confused.  You are disagreeing with me but then agreeing that we shouldn’t sign him? 

The "we shouldn't sign him" bit was sarcasm. 

Fast wouldn't be a good signing he'd be a fantastic one. He'd be perfect for our team.

Look no further than the type of style the Head Coach/Assistant GM Ralph Krueger wants to play. We can *unlock* a lot of the offence we need (Skinner) through facilitating a better situation for him. Staal is a great start, Fast as a defensive compliment on the other side who gets all their points at ES? 

Yes. 

Edited September 20, 2020 by Thorny

[Thorner]

Fast paced for 34 points last season at ES. Olofsson paced for 38, w/Eichel. Olofsson is a no-bs top 6er and he's got no D - so what's Fast?

Fast scored at a better even strength rate last season than everyone on the team not named Jack Eichel or Samson Reinhart or VO, our top line. 

He's available for merely a few million dollars. 

Edited September 20, 2020 by Thorny

[GASabresIUFAN]

10 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Fast paced for 34 points last season at ES. Olofsson paced for 38, w/Eichel. Olofsson is a no-bs top 6er and he's got no D - so what's Fast?

A 3rd line player on a good team just like Kahun.    We have limited extra money with the internal cap.  KA is going to have to make tough choices.  How you allocate those resources is going to make whether we can contend for the playoffs with our internal cap; so would you rather have Larsson or Fast ?

Edited September 20, 2020 by GASabresIUFAN

[Thorner]

2 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

A 3rd line player on a good team just like Kahun.    We have limited extra money with the internal cap.  KA is going to have to make tough choices.  How you allocate those resources is going to make whether we can contend for RHD playoffs with our internal cap; so would you rather have Larsson or Fast ?

We need both. Again, I built a roster that came in at 75 mil that had room for both the defensive C we need and the RWer. AND Pietrangelo to pair w/Dahlin. That such a good two-way player is available for the peanuts Fast will cost is a big part of the appeal. 

If you do a bit of digging you can see the value return there is going to be tough to match with other realistically available additions. 

Edited September 20, 2020 by Thorny

[Thorner]

https://nypost.com/2020/07/30/rangers-could-face-contract-issue-with-popular-and-effective-jesper-fast/

"Because, for the fifth straight season, Fast has been named winner of the Player’s Player Award that is voted upon by his peers in the room."

"Fast, who will turn 29 in December, moved up to the second line and became the defensive and checking conscience of the high-octane unit that featured Panarin on the left and Ryan Strome in the middle. The Swede recorded 29 points (12 goals, 17 assists) while posting a 14.3 shooting percentage."

This is a player that can be had for cheap that has proven to be capable of helping to facilitate MVP level offensive production on his line. This is a player we should definitely add, if at all possible. I'd be shocked if we didn't at least kick tires given the amount of lip service they gave to better incorporating analytical judgement. 

Edited September 20, 2020 by Thorny

[Shootica]

9 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

A 3rd line player on a good team just like Kahun.    We have limited extra money with the internal cap.  KA is going to have to make tough choices.  How you allocate those resources is going to make whether we can contend for the playoffs with our internal cap; so would you rather have Larsson or Fast ?

Skinner - Eichel - Reino

Olofsson - Staal - Cozens

Kahun - XX - Fast

Looks like a real nice top 9 depending on who we could grab at 3C.  Obviously your point about cap space is valid.  Without plugging it all into CapFriendly, I feel like they could make it work depending on 3C.

[Thorner]

3 minutes ago, Shootica said:

Skinner - Eichel - Reino

Olofsson - Staal - Cozens

Kahun - XX - Fast

Looks like a real nice top 9 depending on who we could grab at 3C.  Obviously your point about cap space is valid.  Without plugging it all into CapFriendly, I feel like they could make it work depending on 3C.

I'm not asking Staal to carry around a sophomore and a rookie, and we've seen Skinner have success with players like Staal (and, of course, VO with Jack)

Pry Copp out of Winnipeg. 

Olofsson - Eichel - Reinhart

Skinner - Staal - Fast

Kahun - Copp - Cozens

...now that's a lineup that's difficult to play against, and a cohesive unit stylistically. With a very properly insulated Cozens. In fact, I'd love to see that line with some reasonable matchups. 

Edited September 20, 2020 by Thorny

[Rasmus_]

Jesper Fast, looks like last years Joonas Donskoi.  Someone that adds depth and an okay not great option.  

[nfreeman]

2 hours ago, JohnC said:

A firm no thank you on the Kessel consideration. If you have to qualify your position on a player by saying "if he is motivated and working hard" the underlying issue and criticism of the player is that he isn't always a full effort player. The Sabres don't need that uneven attitude and play. The Sabres are far from being a good team. There are going to be predictable periods of struggle with such an incomplete team. We need players who become more resolute and fade less when times are tough. Again, no thank you on Kessel. Let another team deal with this fading odd duck. 

This is fair and is certainly part of the risk associated with Kessel.

 

1 hour ago, Curt said:

In general, I agree, but that’s just my perception of Kessel.  I don’t know if that’s how he really is.  He seems to be a bit odd, so maybe he just comes across that way.

I can’t say that I have a good handle on Kessel’s headspace.  Maybe someone closer to him would know more.  Maybe he has rededicated himself during these off months and is in the best shape of his life.  Maybe he has been sitting on the couch watching Netflix.  I don’t know.

Part of Kessel's nuttiness:  there was an article about him in the Athletic or Player's Tribune or a similar publication in the last couple of years with photos of his house.  He has a home theater with one chair in it.

 

1 hour ago, Thorny said:

Bolded - ?

Second part - No, Kessel represents the low-odds bet we've been accustomed to making that leads to disaster. Bet on the indisputably better, cheaper player, rather than a hope and a fantasy with the ridiculously problematic floor. 

 

1 hour ago, Thorny said:

A Skinner - Staal - Fast line would be orders of magnitude more beneficial to our hockey team than Skinner - Staal - Kessel. Why torpedo what would be a good line defensively, able to take tough matchups, with a player who's also going to SCORE LESS on that line?

So we can fiddle around with Phil on the PP? Nah. 

This assumption, regardless of how often it is repeated, is nuts.

ES points last 4 years:

Kessel -- 40, 50, 46, 21

Fast -- 21, 33, 20, 29

Other than last year, it's not even close.  The 2 players are apples and oranges.

 

As for the #fancystats, where Fast allegedly massacres Kessel -- Corsi, last 4 years:

Kessel -- 47.4, 51.6, 47.7, 50.4

Fast -- 47.6, 45.3, 47.3, 47.8

 

Fenwick, last 4 years:

Kessel -- 47.7, 52.2, 47.9, 48.9

Fast -- 48.2, 45.6, 48.5, 49.3

 

I think the Fast-Donskoi comparison is apt.  Fast is a nice player in a third-line role.  However, for a team desperate to add scoring, he's not the guy.  There are plenty of reasons not to want Kessel, but the idea that Fast would be better than Kessel in boosting 2nd line scoring ain't one of them IMHO.

[Flashsabre]

Or they  could get both:

oloffson Eichel Kessel

Skinner Staal Reinhart

Kahun Cozens Fast

 

Kessel isn’t my first choice but for Laaksonan and a 2nd I would take him.  Playing with Eichel he would bounce back.  He didn’t have a great centre in Arizona to play with.  And moving Reinhart to play with Staal and Skinner would give them 2 solid scoring lines.

Edited September 20, 2020 by Flashsabre

[Radar]

No Kessel p!ease.

[Thorner]

Corsi and Fenwick are extremely questionable advanced metrics. The worst of the bunch. 

Anyways @nfreeman I find our takes on Fast to be wildly different, and most of my arguments seem to be going unaddressed (yes, I get that, 4 years ago, Kessel scored well). If Fast actually demonstrably succeeding in a second line role isn't enough for you to say he can play a second line role, I'm not sure what else would be able to convince you. 

Sometimes the evaluations are just different. You aren't placing much emphasis on anything other than raw point totals, and even then, discounting the fact that the most relevance in that regard should be placed on the most recent season, imo. 

Isn't the scenario we can adjudge to be the most likely to happen a reproduction more less of the most recent results, the ones we saw this season? If that's the case, Fast blows Kessel out of the water across the board save powerplay scoring. it's not close. 

And we haven't even factored in contract and asset cost yet. 

You need a best case scenario result from Phil to even contemplate the idea he, at 8 million, and whatever the cost to get him, is better value than Fast, at ~3.5. Kessel would just be a really bad gamble. 

Edited September 20, 2020 by Thorny

[Curt]

1 hour ago, Thorny said:

Corsi and Fenwick are extremely questionable advanced metrics. The worst of the bunch. 

Anyways @nfreeman I find our takes on Fast to be wildly different, and most of my arguments seem to be going unaddressed (yes, I get that, 4 years ago, Kessel scored well). If Fast actually demonstrably succeeding in a second line role isn't enough for you to say he can play a second line role, I'm not sure what else would be able to convince you. 

Sometimes the evaluations are just different. You aren't placing much emphasis on anything other than raw point totals, and even then, discounting the fact that the most relevance in that regard should be placed on the most recent season, imo. 

Isn't the scenario we can adjudge to be the most likely to happen a reproduction more less of the most recent results, the ones we saw this season? If that's the case, Fast blows Kessel out of the water across the board save powerplay scoring. it's not close. 

And we haven't even factored in contract and asset cost yet. 

You need a best case scenario result from Phil to even contemplate the idea he, at 8 million, and whatever the cost to get him, is better value than Fast, at ~3.5. Kessel would just be a really bad gamble. 

Just a note.  Kessel costs 6.8.  Toronto is still paying $1.2M of his salary, after all these years.

I could see a lot of teams being philosophically opposed to Kessel because of fit.  Personally, I’m bought into the idea that the Sabres should focus on adding players with a lot of tenacity and responsible play.  Just to try to get out of this funk and develop a team mentality they can take pride in.  I don’t think Kessel fits into that.

[Brawndo]

To further @Thorny ‘s point on Metrics. Expected Goals For and Against, Goals and Assists For/Against per 60 are much better to compare players. 
 

They are similar in ES Offensive Metrics, but Fast’s Defense is multiple steps ahead. 
 

Kessel gets PP time while Fast does not.  That being said, Kessel isn’t getting time on the Sabres PP1 and His Salary doesn’t justify moving assets to get Him for PP2.

[nfreeman]

2 hours ago, Thorny said:

Corsi and Fenwick are extremely questionable advanced metrics. The worst of the bunch. 

Anyways @nfreeman I find our takes on Fast to be wildly different, and most of my arguments seem to be going unaddressed (yes, I get that, 4 years ago, Kessel scored well). If Fast actually demonstrably succeeding in a second line role isn't enough for you to say he can play a second line role, I'm not sure what else would be able to convince you. 

Sometimes the evaluations are just different. You aren't placing much emphasis on anything other than raw point totals, and even then, discounting the fact that the most relevance in that regard should be placed on the most recent season, imo. 

Isn't the scenario we can adjudge to be the most likely to happen a reproduction more less of the most recent results, the ones we saw this season? If that's the case, Fast blows Kessel out of the water across the board save powerplay scoring. it's not close. 

And we haven't even factored in contract and asset cost yet. 

You need a best case scenario result from Phil to even contemplate the idea he, at 8 million, and whatever the cost to get him, is better value than Fast, at ~3.5. Kessel would just be a really bad gamble. 

Which of your arguments are going unaddressed?  You said Fast's analytics "massacre" those of Kessel.  I introduced analytics refuting your point.  You said Fast is a better defensive player than Kessel.  I agreed.  I haven't yet addressed the snarky straw man "4 years ago" in your most recent post, but it doesn't really need addressing, since I've already provided stats showing that Kessel's been quantum levels more productive than Fast has been for 3 of the last 4 years.

As for the most recent season being the most likely to be applicable in a comparison -- that is also a fair point, but it doesn't end the discussion.  Kessel has been a borderline elite offensive producer for pretty much his entire career.  Fast has been a nice 2-way player, but less productive than Jochen Hecht.  Kessel very well might be a spent force, and carrying his contract for its last 2 years might be a major mistake -- but he might not, and he might instead be a great pickup at a position of need.  KA is getting paid less than most other NHL GMs, but still a lot, to make the correct call on items like this. 

I agree that we have qualitatively different evaluations here.  Sometimes people are certain about things that are hard to be certain about -- e.g. many, and I'm not sure whether you're one of them, were certain that the Habs erred enormously in trading PK for Weber. 

As for contracts, Jesper certainly would be cheaper than Kessel.  Term, and therefore commitment, is another matter entirely.  Would Fast, at age 28 and in his first bite at the UFA apple, accept a 3-year deal from a crappy Sabres team?  Or would he require a 5-year deal to come here?  How much less appealing would you find him in that situation, relative to Kessel's 2-year commitment?

I don't agree with your conclusion, which is that the Sabres would be better off with Fast at 2RW than with Kessel -- but that doesn't mean I'm ignoring your points, or that repetition of broad and unsupported assertions makes them correct.