Sabres Picking 8th

[GASabresIUFAN]

47 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Oh my garsh yes. 

- - - 

The only thing I like about Holtz, if he's the pick..he's a right shot winger and we have none.

What about his good skating, decent size and has already proved effective against men at 17?  
 

Vogl was also pointing out that year for year Holtz has out scored VO at every level.  

[Thorner]

Just now, GASabresIUFAN said:

What about his good skating, decent size and has already proved effective against men at 17?  
 

Vogl was also pointing out that year for year Holtz has out scored VO at every level.  

I hear you. But damned if you can't pull up a glowing scouting report on every available top 10 pick...ever. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

1 minute ago, Thorny said:

I hear you. But damned if you can't pull up a glowing scouting report on every available top 10 pick...ever. 

Sure.  That’s why he has a top ten grade. My preference is for someone to draft Sanderson and maybe the goalie early and we’ll get a legit shot at Rossi or Perfetti who I think are at least as talented if not more then Samson and Cozens.  Still I like what I’ve read on both Quinn and Holtz and wouldn’t be upset with either.  

Someone earlier brought up Sergachev vs Nylander and compared this to Holtz vs Sanderson. I thought we should have take Sergachev then and said so given our lack of D in the pipeline (I also thought he was the better player).  However D in the pipeline isn’t the issue now, forward depth is.  Nylander would be graded 21st in this draft.  Compare Quinn, Rossi, Perfetti, Jarvis and Holtz’s production and Nylander doesn’t come close. I also don’t think Sanderson is as good as Sergachev.

[Thorner]

7 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Sure.  That’s why he has a top ten grade. My preference is for someone to draft Sanderson and maybe the goalie early and we’ll get a legit shot at Rossi or Perfetti who I think are at least as talented if not more then Samson and Cozens.  Still I like what I’ve read on both Quinn and Holtz and wouldn’t be upset with either.  

Someone earlier brought up Sergachev vs Nylander and compared this to Holtz vs Sanderson. I thought we should have take Sergachev then and said so given our lack of D in the pipeline (I also thought he was the better player).  However D in the pipeline isn’t the issue now, forward depth is.  Nylander would be graded 21st in this draft.  Compare Quinn, Rossi, Perfetti, Jarvis and Holtz’s production and Nylander doesn’t come close. I also don’t think Sanderson is as good as Sergachev.

Do you think Rossi and Pefetti can play LW if necessary, as left shots? I'm always looking at that depth chart. I suppose if not, can't Olofsson slide over?

[dudacek]

18 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Sure.  That’s why he has a top ten grade. My preference is for someone to draft Sanderson and maybe the goalie early and we’ll get a legit shot at Rossi or Perfetti who I think are at least as talented if not more then Samson and Cozens.  Still I like what I’ve read on both Quinn and Holtz and wouldn’t be upset with either.  

Someone earlier brought up Sergachev vs Nylander and compared this to Holtz vs Sanderson. I thought we should have take Sergachev then and said so given our lack of D in the pipeline (I also thought he was the better player).  However D in the pipeline isn’t the issue now, forward depth is.  Nylander would be graded 21st in this draft.  Compare Quinn, Rossi, Perfetti, Jarvis and Holtz’s production and Nylander doesn’t come close. I also don’t think Sanderson is as good as Sergachev.

 

9 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Do you think Rossi and Pefetti can play LW if necessary, as left shots? I'm always looking at that depth chart. I suppose if not, can't Olofsson slide over?

Read or listened to stuff today that said yes. I've read multiple reports touting Perfetti as a wing. Rossi is a centre, but mock drafters were saying NJ would have no problem picking him despite Hischier and Hughes because he can shift to the wing, and is also defensively good enough to be an elite 3C.

Sam Consentino says Perfetti to Detroit at 4 is the second safest bet in the draft after Lafreniere at 1.

Best case scenario is one of them drops to us, but it would take two teams picking D, and someone being real high on Raymond.

[Thorner]

This would make me the most happy (if we don't have to deal the pick, even better)

Olofsson - Eichel - Reinhart

Skinner - Cirelli - Kahun

...but I'd be reasonably happy with something like this, too, if we make the pick:

Olofsson - Eichel - Reinhart

Skinner - Bonino - Kahun 

...considering in a couple years it probably looks something like:

Olofsson - Eichel - Reinhart

Skinner - Cozens - Perfetti

 

Edited June 27, 2020 by Thorny

[PerreaultForever]

15 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

If TB offers us Cirelli for Risto and this pick do you make the deal?

Myself, I'd say no. While I like Cirelli and would love to see him on the team I think Sanderson will be special. I'd give up Risto and a lower pick or some pick/prospect swapping for Cirelli but not Sanderson. 

[French Collection]

A few of the Mock drafts have Holtz at #8 so I watched a few videos of him.

Elite shooter, comparable to Caufield  from last year’s draft. He is bigger and a better skater than Caufield. He is a right handed RW, which the Sabres could use.

For some reason, I am not sold on him. I would consider moving down a few spots and getting Jarvis or Quinn.

It is no secret that I would love to get Rossi at 8 but I don’t think he gets by the Devils. They have 3 prospects on the 67s so they have seen all of Rossi’s games. My only hope is that they need something other than a C.

[Zamboni]

If Risto and the 8th can get us a 2nd line center for the next 2-3 years while Cozens develops more, I’d do that all day. It’s a gamble for sure, but I think it would pay off in the end. 
(Pay off = A well developed young 2nd line center about to enter his prime years).

[JohnC]

22 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

While I think the pick will be Holtz based on the rankings, Sanderson may be the guy if available.  The newly hired Crowe knows him well from his time at the USNTDP and this would be a very safe pick for our inexperienced GM and his inexperienced staff.

 

If TB offers us Cirelli for Risto and this pick do you make the deal?

I would make the Cirelli deal as you pose it on the condition that the player who will be an URFA next year signs a contract with us. If not, then it makes no sense. If a deal for a 2C can't be made then keep Risto (a Krueger favorite) and utilize your draft pick on a quality prospect. I have no problem including our first round pick in a deal for a 2C. But if the player coming back isn't locked into a longer term contract then you are putting yourself in a vulnerable situation in a year or two.  That's not how a smart organization would operate.  

A lot of attention has been given to Cirelli. But it is more likely that Tampa works out a deal for this high quality young player who will be an instrumental player for them for a long time. Cirelli can take a little less from Tampa and still have a top tier contract because Florida has no state income tax. Also, Cirelli is in a terrific situation with Tampa in that he is on a perennial cup contending team. When all is said and done odds are that he will take the Stamkos route when he was a FA in willing to make a minor contract adjustment to stay in a good situation with the team he is already on. 

 

[Sabre1974]

1 hour ago, French Collection said:

A few of the Mock drafts have Holtz at #8 so I watched a few videos of him.

Elite shooter, comparable to Caufield  from last year’s draft. He is bigger and a better skater than Caufield. He is a right handed RW, which the Sabres could use.

For some reason, I am not sold on him. I would consider moving down a few spots and getting Jarvis or Quinn.

It is no secret that I would love to get Rossi at 8 but I don’t think he gets by the Devils. They have 3 prospects on the 67s so they have seen all of Rossi’s games. My only hope is that they need something other than a C.

Would love Rossi but we have no chance. I'd be happy with holtz or lundell. If Raymond is still there at 8 I'd be taking him. 

[LGR4GM]

9 minutes ago, Sabre1974 said:

Would love Rossi but we have no chance. I'd be happy with holtz or lundell. If Raymond is still there at 8 I'd be taking him. 

We had no chance of Cozens falling to us... until he did. 

2 hours ago, French Collection said:

A few of the Mock drafts have Holtz at #8 so I watched a few videos of him.

Elite shooter, comparable to Caufield  from last year’s draft. He is bigger and a better skater than Caufield. He is a right handed RW, which the Sabres could use.

For some reason, I am not sold on him. I would consider moving down a few spots and getting Jarvis or Quinn.

It is no secret that I would love to get Rossi at 8 but I don’t think he gets by the Devils. They have 3 prospects on the 67s so they have seen all of Rossi’s games. My only hope is that they need something other than a C.

He receives the puck in prime scoring areas but he's not the one taking it to that area. 

[Sabre1974]

47 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

We had no chance of Cozens falling to us... until he did. 

He receives the puck in prime scoring areas but he's not the one taking it to that area. 

Hopefully happens with Rossi what happened with Cozens?

[GASabresIUFAN]

After the top 3, any of the next 5-8 players Could go in any order depending on the team.  My guess is that the draft boards all have these guys scored nearly identically down to Lundell and the goalie.  All we need for one of Raymond or Rossi or Perfetti to drop to us is 2 teams ahead of us drafting a defensemen. That’s it.  This is a likely occurrence.  Now if someone loves the goaltender, then we’ll have a choice of two of those players.

I can also see a team or two say in 9-12 position offering us to move up to grab Sanderson if available.  

[Sabre1974]

20 hours ago, steveoath said:

Pickwise,  if Rossi is gone as many suspect then I like what I am reading about Lundell. Needs to work on skating, but a solid and reliable 2 way C. 

http://www.mynhldraft.com/2020-nhl-draft/player-profiles/Anton-Lundell 

Reckon Rossi will be long gone by 8. Liking what I've read about lundell. Also would be happy with holtz, perfetti or Quinn. If Raymond is still there at 8 I'd be tempted though. 

On another note I really hope all this gets sorted with Intu and clan play next season. Eihl needs them?

[GASabresIUFAN]

2 hours ago, JohnC said:

I would make the Cirelli deal as you pose it on the condition that the player who will be an URFA next year signs a contract with us. If not, then it makes no sense. If a deal for a 2C can't be made then keep Risto (a Krueger favorite) and utilize your draft pick on a quality prospect. I have no problem including our first round pick in a deal for a 2C. But if the player coming back isn't locked into a longer term contract then you are putting yourself in a vulnerable situation in a year or two.  That's not how a smart organization would operate.  

A lot of attention has been given to Cirelli. But it is more likely that Tampa works out a deal for this high quality young player who will be an instrumental player for them for a long time. Cirelli can take a little less from Tampa and still have a top tier contract because Florida has no state income tax. Also, Cirelli is in a terrific situation with Tampa in that he is on a perennial cup contending team. When all is said and done odds are that he will take the Stamkos route when he was a FA in willing to make a minor contract adjustment to stay in a good situation with the team he is already on. 

 

I agree that TB will do everything possible to keep him and Sergachev and I believe they’ll get it done.  However they are going to have to trade at least two guys on NTCs to get it done.  That is not going to be easy. They are going to have to find teams willing to take on the contracts and hope those players are willing to move from low tax and nice weather Florida while playing for a Cup contender to another team.  Hard sell.

Also if we acquire Cirelli he has almost zero leverage as an RFA except holding out.

I would love to see the Sabres acquire Johnson from TB if he can be convinced to come here.  Unlikely, but more likely then TB trading us a 22 year old star.

[JohnC]

24 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I agree that TB will do everything possible to keep him and Sergachev and I believe they’ll get it done.  However they are going to have to trade at least two guys on NTCs to get it done.  That is not going to be easy. They are going to have to find teams willing to take on the contracts and hope those players are willing to move from low tax and nice weather Florida while playing for a Cup contender to another team.  Hard sell.

Also if we acquire Cirelli he has almost zero leverage as an RFA except holding out.

I would love to see the Sabres acquire Johnson from TB if he can be convinced to come here.  Unlikely, but more likely then TB trading us a 22 year old star.

I'm not adverse to considering Mitts or even Cozens as a 2C if another goal scoring second line winger can be brought in to boost the line. The price would certainly be less than in a deal for a second line center, and there would be more players to choose from the market. I'm aware that most commentators here don't want to take that course because they are afraid that Mitts and Cozens are not ready and could possibly regress in their development. I'm not as afraid on that issue. A line with either Cozens or Mitts along with Olofsson, Cozens if not the center and a goal scoring sniper brought in from a deal is an approach that I am open to. There are a number of options to consider that although not necessarily the best options are still good options that will upgrade the roster   

[dudacek]

2 hours ago, JohnC said:

I would make the Cirelli deal as you pose it on the condition that the player who will be an URFA next year signs a contract with us. If not, then it makes no sense. If a deal for a 2C can't be made then keep Risto (a Krueger favorite) and utilize your draft pick on a quality prospect. I have no problem including our first round pick in a deal for a 2C. But if the player coming back isn't locked into a longer term contract then you are putting yourself in a vulnerable situation in a year or two.  That's not how a smart organization would operate.  

A lot of attention has been given to Cirelli. But it is more likely that Tampa works out a deal for this high quality young player who will be an instrumental player for them for a long time. Cirelli can take a little less from Tampa and still have a top tier contract because Florida has no state income tax. Also, Cirelli is in a terrific situation with Tampa in that he is on a perennial cup contending team. When all is said and done odds are that he will take the Stamkos route when he was a FA in willing to make a minor contract adjustment to stay in a good situation with the team he is already on. 

 

History says Tampa should get something done, but man are they in trouble.

They have 10 forwards and 3 defencemen under contract.

They have to sign 5-7 players to fill out their roster. They have 5.4 million in cap space.

Let’s say they promote three prospects or sign minimum wage vets to take care of half those slots.

Then you are left with $3 million to re-sign or replace half your starting defence (Sergachev, Cernak, Shattenkirk) as well as Cirelli

Every significant contract on their roster comes with a complete no-trade clause except Point and Killorn, who has a modified NTC. Let’s say they find a partner and move Killorn out for a pick.

That leaves $7.5 to sign or replace Killorn, Shattenkirk, Sergachev, Cernak and Cirelli.

If someone hit Cirelli with an $7 million offer sheet, what are they going to do?

[JohnC]

20 minutes ago, dudacek said:

History says Tampa should get something done, but man are they in trouble.

They have 10 forwards and 3 defencemen under contract.

They have to sign 5-7 players to fill out their roster. They have 5.4 million in cap space.

Let’s say they promote three prospects or sign minimum wage vets to take care of half those slots.

Then you are left with $3 million to re-sign or replace half your starting defence (Sergachev, Cernak, Shattenkirk) as well as Cirelli

Every significant contract on their roster comes with a complete no-trade clause except Point and Killorn, who has a modified NTC. Let’s say they find a partner and move Killorn out for a pick.

That leaves $7.5 to sign or replace Killorn, Shattenkirk, Sergachev, Cernak and Cirelli.

If someone hit Cirelli with an $7 million offer sheet, what are they going to do?

Tampa has a loaded system. They have prospects ready to step in on the cheap. Will they end up moving some talent that under a less cap situation they would prefer to keep? Absolutely. But that's the cap puzzle that abundantly talented teams contend with. I just think that because Cirelli is not only a premier talent but he is also a young talent and will be a mainstay player for a long time that the organization will make him a priority to keep. 

Tampa will lose some talent in order to keep their preferred talent. There is no way to work around that reality. But as you indicated the Lightening are a smart and forward acting organization that will make the right tough choices. 

The challenge for our front office is not to get fixated on a positional need to the point that it gives up too much for the benefit of the now at the expense of the near future. I am open to all options. But I'm not afraid to stay the course and counting on internal improvement assuming that are still less high-profile deals made to better balance this roster. 

 

Edited June 28, 2020 by JohnC

[dudacek]

Comparables to Sergachev

Ekblad 7.5

Provorov 6.7

Dumba 6

indell $5.8

Risto 5.4

Skjei 5.4

Lindholm 5.2

Theodore 5.2

Reilly $5

Matheson $4.8

Chychrun $4.6

Pesce 4.0 

Sanheim $3.2

 

Comparables to Cirelli

Aho $8.4

Point 6.7

Monahan $6.3

Larkin $6.1

Barkov 5.9

Hertl 5.6

Horvat 5.5

trochek 4.7

[dudacek]

14 minutes ago, JohnC said:

Tampa has a loaded system. They have prospects ready to step in on the cheap. Will they end up moving some talent that under a less cap situation they would prefer to keep? Absolutely. But that's the cap puzzle that abundantly talented teams contend with. I just think that because Cirelli is not only a premier talent but he is also a young talent and will be a mainstay player for a long time that the organization will make him a priority to keep. 

Tampa will lose some talent in order to keep their preferred talent. There is no way to work around that reality. But as you indicated the Lightening are a smart and forward acting organization that will make the right tough choices. 

The challenge for our front office is not to get fixated on a positional need to the point that it gives up too much for the benefit of the now at the expense of the near future. I am open to all options. But I'm not afraid to stay the course and counting on internal improvement assuming that are still less high-profile deals made to better balance this roster. 

 

OK, but again, if someone hits Cirelli (or Sergachev) with an offer sheet, what are they going to do?

Even if they convince a Johnson or Palat to waive their NTC, that still might not be enough to get under the cap. And if they somehow do, they will be significantly weakened in the process.

To my mind, this is an enormous opportunity to either make yourself better or the best team in the division worse, and if teams with cap space like Montreal and Detroit aren’t taking advantage of it, they aren’t trying to be competitive.

Edited June 28, 2020 by dudacek

[GASabresIUFAN]

2 hours ago, dudacek said:

History says Tampa should get something done, but man are they in trouble.

They have 10 forwards and 3 defencemen under contract.

They have to sign 5-7 players to fill out their roster. They have 5.4 million in cap space.

Let’s say they promote three prospects or sign minimum wage vets to take care of half those slots.

Then you are left with $3 million to re-sign or replace half your starting defence (Sergachev, Cernak, Shattenkirk) as well as Cirelli

Every significant contract on their roster comes with a complete no-trade clause except Point and Killorn, who has a modified NTC. Let’s say they find a partner and move Killorn out for a pick.

That leaves $7.5 to sign or replace Killorn, Shattenkirk, Sergachev, Cernak and Cirelli.

If someone hit Cirelli with an $7 million offer sheet, what are they going to do?

Sign it and work like crazy to dump 2 of Killorn, Johnson, Palat and Gourde.  They are allowed to be over the cap during the off-season. I think they only have to get cap compliant by opening day. 

Edited June 28, 2020 by GASabresIUFAN

[French Collection]

7 minutes ago, dudacek said:

OK, but again, if someone hits Cirelli (or Sergachev) with an offer sheet, what are they going to do?

Even if they convince a Johnson or Palat to waive their NTC, that still might not be enough to get under the cap.

Taking Johnson off their hands may cost next to nothing. They clear cap space for Cirelli.

[JohnC]

1 minute ago, dudacek said:

OK, but again, if someone hits Cirelli (or Sergachev) with an offer sheet, what are they going to do?

Even if they convince a Johnson or Palat to waive their NTC, that still might not be enough to get under the cap.

I'm not fully versed on the ramifications of an offer sheet. My assumption is that Cirelli would prefer to stay with Tampa over accepting an offer sheet from Buffalo. Cirelli knows what his market value is. If Tampa can close to matching that price why would he prefer Buffalo or any other locations? Tampa is without a doubt a good situation for him. The Lightning can offer him less and from a money standpoint yet it still could be a comparable/close $$$ contract because of the favorable tax situation in Florida. As previously noted he would be able to continue playing for a long term cup contending team. 

There is a major incentive for Tampa to work out a contract deal with Cirelli. Why wouldn't they go all out for a superior young talent? I just think too many people are fixating on a player that won't be attainable for us.  

 

[JohnC]

3 minutes ago, French Collection said:

Taking Johnson off their hands may cost next to nothing. They clear cap space for Cirelli.

As you point out with the Johnson example there are teams that are cap stressed and need to move good players because of it. We are in a good cap situation and should be able to come up with a second line player or maybe two for a significantly less price. If it isn't for a 2C then getting a second line winger or so is still a good roster move for us.