Sabres Picking 8th

[MakeSabresGrr8Again]

30 minutes ago, WildCard said:

Is there still no word on when the NHL draft takes place? I'm guessing September at this point

My guess would be closer to October, even on Columbus Day (is that a thing still?).

[Sabres Fan in NS]

Just now, MakeSabresGrr8Again said:

My guess would be closer to October, even on Columbus Day (is that a thing still?).

Yes.  It's my Thanksgiving.

[MakeSabresGrr8Again]

5 minutes ago, New Scotland (NS) said:

Yes.  It's my Thanksgiving.

What's that?

[Sabres Fan in NS]

Just now, MakeSabresGrr8Again said:

What's that?

You know, it's a holiday Monday in mid(ish) October where we eat and stuff, but all the shops are closed and north american football was never my scene and I don't like Star Wars.

[MakeSabresGrr8Again]

2 hours ago, New Scotland (NS) said:

You know, it's a holiday Monday in mid(ish) October where we eat and stuff, but all the shops are closed and north american football was never my scene and I don't like Star Wars.

But we do know you like...

The Clash and...

Barron, lol.?

[Sabres Fan in NS]

47 minutes ago, MakeSabresGrr8Again said:

But we do know you like...

The Clash and...

Barron, lol.?

Don't forget Freddie ... 

[LGR4GM]

This draft makes a lot of sense... 

https://lastwordonhockeyprospects.com/2020/06/28/nhl-mock-draft-2020-lottery-edition/

[dudacek]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

This draft makes a lot of sense... 

https://lastwordonhockeyprospects.com/2020/06/28/nhl-mock-draft-2020-lottery-edition/

It might be wishful thinking on my part, but their arguments do make a lot of sense. Sanderson and Raymond going in the top seven are the keys for us.

If Botterill was still the GM, Id bet the house on Raymond being our pick because he’s who we would want and who would be there. But we have no idea what our “new way of scouting” will produce.

[JohnC]

3 minutes ago, dudacek said:

It might be wishful thinking on my part, but their arguments do make a lot of sense. Sanderson and Raymond going in the top seven are the keys for us.

If Botterill was still the GM, Id bet the house on Raymond being our pick because he’s who we would want and who would be there. But we have no idea what our “new way of scouting” will produce.

If you review a number of the hockey sites the players coming off the board are pretty close to matching the same players indicated in LGR's link.  As you noted the best scenario for us is that the two top ranked defensemen come off the board before our pick so some forwards get pushed down. Unless the Sabres trade the pick or trade down the Sabres should come away with a good prospect who could be ready in two years or so. 

You bring up an interesting issue as to whether the "new way of scouting" with the Adam regime would have an appreciably different ranking board than the Botterill board would have. I'm not sure that for the top rated prospects it would be much different. 

[LGR4GM]

22 minutes ago, dudacek said:

It might be wishful thinking on my part, but their arguments do make a lot of sense. Sanderson and Raymond going in the top seven are the keys for us.

If Botterill was still the GM, Id bet the house on Raymond being our pick because he’s who we would want and who would be there. But we have no idea what our “new way of scouting” will produce.

Seth Jarvis and Rossi should be high on that new list. 

1 minute ago, JohnC said:

If you review a number of the hockey sites the players coming off the board are pretty close to matching the same players indicated in LGR's link.  As you noted the best scenario for us is that the two top ranked defensemen come off the board before our pick so some forwards get pushed down. Unless the Sabres trade the pick or trade down the Sabres should come away with a good prospect who could be ready in two years or so. 

You bring up an interesting issue as to whether the "new way of scouting" with the Adam regime would have an appreciably different ranking board than the Botterill board would have. I'm not sure that for the top rated prospects it would be much different. 

I think the main difference we could see is that the Devils take Holtz instead of Raymond. 

[LGR4GM]

7 minutes ago, JohnC said:

 

You bring up an interesting issue as to whether the "new way of scouting" with the Adam regime would have an appreciably different ranking board than the Botterill board would have. I'm not sure that for the top rated prospects it would be much different. 

I would like to disagree. The Sabres were notorious for pushing CHL players down their boards because of development time. It was a major factor and we also know that they didn't use analytics in drafting (I say know because see Ryan Johnson and Kaliyev or Robertson). With just those two changes I think that will greatly impact how they put the final flourishes on the draft board. 

[dudacek]

15 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Seth Jarvis and Rossi should be high on that new list. 

Do we have access to analytics that show that?

We don’t really have a good idea yet on the way the Crowe flies.

We do know that he had a good eye for junior talent with the USNDP, but it’s hard to see where his successes have been as a Sabre pro scout. Our pro acquisitions haven’t exactly been great. Let’s hope he was the guy lobbying hard for Jokiharju, not Frolik.

Edited July 8, 2020 by dudacek

[LGR4GM]

2 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Do we have access to analytics that show that?

We don’t really have a good idea yet on the way the Crowe flies.

We do know that he had a good eye for munior talent with the USNDP, but it’s hard to see where his successes have been as a Sabre pro scout. Our pro acquisitions haven’t exactly been great. Let’s hope he was the guy lobbying hard for Jokiharju, not Frolik.

Yup. Give Rakish a hot minute and you can listen to us talk about some of that. I wish I had more analytics but I can't do SEAL adjusted scoring... I might try and learn though.

I am of the opinion that Nightengale being promoted tells us Adams wasn't a Frolik guy. 

Edited July 8, 2020 by LGR4GM

[JohnC]

2 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I would like to disagree. The Sabres were notorious for pushing CHL players down their boards because of development time. It was a major factor and we also know that they didn't use analytics in drafting (I say know because see Ryan Johnson and Kaliyev or Robertson). With just those two changes I think that will greatly impact how they put the final flourishes on the draft board. 

We'll have to wait and see how different the board will be under the new regime. I still believe that for the most part the top dozen players will be nearly be same with some variation due to a team's need. For obvious reasons we really can't know how Botterill would handle this draft because he is no longer with the organization. 

[LGR4GM]

Just now, JohnC said:

We'll have to wait and see how different the board will be under the new regime. I still believe that for the most part the top dozen players will be nearly be same with some variation due to a team's need. For obvious reasons we really can't know how Botterill would handle this draft because he is no longer with the organization. 

If Holtz and Raymond and Lundell are available at 8 and Rossi is as well, I think we can assume that Botts would have preferred the Euro player. 

[dudacek]

1 minute ago, JohnC said:

We'll have to wait and see how different the board will be under the new regime. I still believe that for the most part the top dozen players will be nearly be same with some variation due to a team's need. For obvious reasons we really can't know how Botterill would handle this draft because he is no longer with the organization. 

The Botterill team apparently had a draft board ready. What I wouldn’t give to see the new regime reworking the list, then watching the results play out over the next few years.

I agree with your take on the top prospects, what gets interesting is that we are towards the end of the consensus tier; will there be someone we have ranked in that tier that most teams don’t? Jarvis being a prime example this year, a guy like Newhook maybe last year.

5 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

If Holtz and Raymond and Lundell are available at 8 and Rossi is as well, I think we can assume that Botts would have preferred the Euro player. 

I agree, but maybe for different reasons. I think Botterill’s team had very strong connections with frolunda and other Swedish sources, and a better certainty of what they were getting.

[Thorner]

18 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Do we have access to analytics that show that?

We don’t really have a good idea yet on the way the Crowe flies.

We do know that he had a good eye for junior talent with the USNDP, but it’s hard to see where his successes have been as a Sabre pro scout. Our pro acquisitions haven’t exactly been great. Let’s hope he was the guy lobbying hard for Jokiharju, not Frolik.

We do not, and it’ll probably come down do the draft vision/philosophy of Adams, correct? He’ll be the one managing how he wants Crowe to work. 

I’m really interested to see Adams’ philosophy. I can only hope that he, even being part of the organization when Botterill was using his weird approach to the draft, sees it differently and brings no league bias into the equation. 

Edited July 8, 2020 by Thorny

[dudacek]

15 minutes ago, Thorny said:

We do not, and it’ll probably come down do the draft vision/philosophy of Adams, correct? He’ll be the one managing how he wants Crowe to work. 

I’m really interested to see Adam’s philosophy. I can only hope that he, even being part of the organization when Botterill was using his weird approach to the draft, sees it differently and brings no league bias into the equation. 

Im not so sure. 

So far I have no reason to doubt Adams when he talks about relying on people smarter than him, sharpening decision-making through debate, and coming to informed consensus.

I expect Adams to have certain characteristics he is looking for that will help inform Crowe’s rankings, but also a considerable amount of trust in Crowe’s take on what makes a good hockey player that will also help shape Adams’ direction.

I suspect Crowe and Adams have had multiple conversations well before the regime change was even an idea where they discovered a similar philosophy and value set about what makes a good hockey player, and Crowe impressed Adams with his opinions and ideas. I would be surprised if Crowe isn’t given considerable latitude in implementing those ideas. 

Edited July 8, 2020 by dudacek

[Thorner]

23 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Im not so sure. 

So far I have no reason to doubt Adams when he talks about relying on people smarter than him, sharpening decision-making through debate, and coming to informed consensus.

I expect Adams to have certain characteristics he is looking for that will help inform Crowe’s rankings, but also a considerable amount of trust in Crowe’s take on what makes a good hockey player that will also help shape Adams’ direction.

I suspect Crowe and Adams have had multiple conversations well before the regime change was even an idea where they discovered a similar philosophy and value set about what makes a good hockey player, and Crowe impressed Adams with his opinions and ideas. I would be surprised if Crowe isn’t given considerable latitude in implementing those ideas. 

Wouldn’t be surprised at all to see us stay in the outlier Botterill mode then, heavily USNTDP/USHL/NCAA influenced considering Crowe’s experience. 

[dudacek]

2 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Wouldn’t be surprised at all to see us stay in the outlier Botterill mode then, heavily USNTDP/USHL/NCAA influenced considering Crowe’s experience. 

God, I hope not.

You would think a progressive thinker would have ideas on how to recognize talent no matter where it’s playing, and be above parochial biases.

[Curt]

1 minute ago, Thorny said:

Wouldn’t be surprised at all to see us stay in the outlier Botterill mode then, heavily USNTDP/USHL/NCAA influenced considering Crowe’s experience. 

I would.  It’s highly unlikely that someone else would employ such a strong aversion to CHL prospects.  If Adams liked the drafting, he may not have replaced the director of scouting.

[Thorner]

Just now, dudacek said:

God, I hope not.

You would think a progressive thinker would have ideas on how to recognize talent no matter where it’s playing, and be above parochial biases.

You’d think, but we don’t know if we have progressive thinkers in the spots that matter yet, unfortunately. Botterill was supposed to be a smart guy and he had one of the most ridiculous draft biases I’ve ever seen. 

[Thorner]

9 minutes ago, Curt said:

I would.  It’s highly unlikely that someone else would employ such a strong aversion to CHL prospects.  If Adams liked the drafting, he may not have replaced the director of scouting.

True, but who was the Director before Crowe, Devine? We drafted differently while Devine manned the unit under a different GM, if I remember correctly. Seems to be the GM philosophy winning the day here. 

Adams could view it differently than Botts, or Crowe might, and like dudacek said maybe he’ll be given lots of rope. In the end I still think it comes back to GM philosophy, and we’ll have to see what that reveals itself to be, and that’ll probably give us more information as to why Crowe was selected to lead the department. 

Edited July 8, 2020 by Thorny

[Curt]

4 minutes ago, Thorny said:

True, but who was the Director before Crowe, Devine? We drafted differently while Devine manned the unit under a different GM, if I remember correctly. Seems to be the GM philosophy winning the day here. 

Adams could view it differently than Botts, or Crowe might, and like dudacek said maybe he’ll be given lots of rope. In the end I still think it comes back to GM philosophy, and we’ll have to see what that means for both the Director change they made and their draft strategy. 

Yeah, it’s all solidly in wait and see territory right now.

Im just saying, they fired the Director of Amateur Scouting (Jankowski), Assistant Director of Amateur Scouting (Crisp), and 10 amateur scouts.  I think it’s reasonable to assume this probably will lead to a change in draft philosophy, especially when the old philosophy was uniquely strange.

[PalmTreeMafia]

59 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I agree with your take on the top prospects, what gets interesting is that we are towards the end of the consensus tier; will there be someone we have ranked in that tier that most teams don’t? Jarvis being a prime example this year, a guy like Newhook maybe last year.

The consensus top tier seems to feature exactly 8 players: Lafreniere, Byfield, Stutzle, Perfetti, Raymond, and Rossi at forward plus Drysdale and Sanderson at defense. I'm not sure I would be comfortable seeing the Sabres take a Holtz or Lundell or Jarvis over any of these 8 guys, including Sanderson. I want the best NHL player available at #8. I don't care what position he plays.