NHL Draft Lottery: Friday June 26th, 8pm EDT

[apuszczalowski]

17 minutes ago, BagBoy said:

So let's say the COVID situation really amps up over the next few weeks.  Eventually it gets so bad that the NHL in good conscience must cancel the playoffs.  Then how do they decide who gets the top pick?  Shitshow indeed!

It's something like the bottom 8 teams that are currently in the 'play in' round of the playoffs would have a 1:8 chance at the #1 overall pick as they would be the 8 teams eligible for the pick now.

[That Aud Smell]

Is there a perverse incentive to finish 12th?

[apuszczalowski]

17 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Teams 17-24 all get a 12.5% chance at it. 

I think it's teams 9-16

[Thorner]

2 minutes ago, apuszczalowski said:

I think it's teams 9-16

No, 9-24 are involved in the play-in round, and if there is no play-in round, the bottom 8, 17-24 will get equal odds at #1. 

But it's all a bit confusing cause it's not reallly 9-24 in the play-in round. Pittsburgh is 7th overall and has to play in the play in due to the strength of the East. Pittsburgh is the highest ranked team that can win #1. 

I guess if the play in doesn't happen, 6 of the 8 teams with a shot at the pick are from the West. 

[Andrew Amerk]

7 minutes ago, apuszczalowski said:

I think it's teams 9-16

The 8 teams that lose the first round of the PLAYOFFS all get a 12.5% chance. 
 

(I don’t care what moniker the NHL wants to give it - it’s playoffs). 

Edited June 27, 2020 by Andrew Amerk

[Taro T]

18 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

RIP is keeping 88 because he believes in the Kane to buffalo rumors 

They should riot.

Realize that's a joke, but pretty sure we've seen enough riots for 1 lifetime already. 

[Thorner]

The NHL harms actively bad teams far more often than they bust "tanking" with their ridiculous overcomplication of the lottery process. 

[Derrico]

So question.  Why didn’t the nhl wait until after their play in rounds before having the lottery?  Like why did it have to be now with the possibility of this scenario playing out?  What was the harm in waiting until if/when they had completed this?

[carpandean]

I have no more problem with the outcome than I would have had if they had just put 16 teams in the playoffs, they had run the lottery as normal and some team in 9-15 had won it.  The team that ends up getting it will have 3-5 additional games (still fewer than they would have needed for a complete regular season) and a short series loss, but no more chance of winning the Stanley Cup than we do.  They either were in the bottom 15 or will have lost to a team that was in the bottom 15.

 

 

[WildCard]

Lol what a joke 

[Thorner]

If the very worst team in the play in gets #1, it'll be a team 32 points better than the Detroit Red Wings. 

[DarthEbriate]

5 minutes ago, Derrico said:

So question.  Why didn’t the nhl wait until after their play in rounds before having the lottery?  Like why did it have to be now with the possibility of this scenario playing out?  What was the harm in waiting until if/when they had completed this?

That's just it. The "season" or play-in wasn't done. They wanted to do a lottery because the NFL Draft was the only game in town and they needed a reminder to the US that hockey still exists. There's no reason that the lottery is today.

[CallawaySabres]

Buffalo is 3 years away from 8th spot in playoffs anyway....rebuilding may never end

[IKnowPhysics]

34 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I'm just happy we only moved down 1. 

Knowing we had a majority chance (53.6%) of moving down 1, 2, or 3 spots, I am also glad we only moved down 1.

This play-in loser gets first overall is bad, and the NHL should feel bad.  It incentivizes teams to bail out of the first round.  The odds are now 12.5% for the 1st overall pick, which in a recent year, would be the 1st overall lottery odds for somewhere between the 2nd and 3rd last point finisher.

To move from from 9th-16th overall (0.37-0.30) to 1st overall (1.00) is basically worth three picks from that range according to NHL pick values:

https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/analyzing-value-nhl-draft-picks/

You can't convince me that of 16 middling teams, not a single one doesn't want a 12.5% chance to triple their pick value and grab Lafrennierrenene.

And how many of the bottom eight teams will suddenly lobby to cancel the season?  Will the NHL adjust to 16 teams?

The NHL ***** the bed and now they have to sleep in it.  Boo to the architects that created this mess and boo to the owners that approved this shoddy plan.

[Thorner]

And, it's actually 7th overall that can win it. 

[PerreaultForever]

Totally sucks that a playoff team gets the first pick. I may have to quit hockey entirely if the Leafs are a hub city and win the lottery again....

Sucks worse to be Ottawa or Detroit as they were tanking for a 1 or 2 spot. So 8.......not great.

If JBot was still GM I'm sure it'd be Raymond or maybe Holtz as he loved the Swedes but the new guy no idea. The one with the best analytics I guess will be the pick.

Myself, I'd hope somehow Sanderson fell to 8th (ranked 7th I think but rising in some views) cause I think he will be special and with him and Dahlin, we'd become a powerhouse on the back end but likely another guy who may or may not be something in 3 years but nowhere near immediate help, if ever. 

It all just sucks. 

[carpandean]

10 minutes ago, Thorny said:

And, it's actually 7th overall that can win it. 

Only if they cost themselves a chance at the Cup by losing to the 24th overall team.  As the 7th-best team, the wouldn't even have made it to what would be the first round of the playoffs in a normal year.  Even then, they would only have a 12.5% of winning it.  Three very unlikely things would have to have happened, only one of which has now occurred.

[sabremike]

7 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:

Totally sucks that a playoff team gets the first pick. I may have to quit hockey entirely if the Leafs are a hub city and win the lottery again....

Sucks worse to be Ottawa or Detroit as they were tanking for a 1 or 2 spot. So 8.......not great.

If JBot was still GM I'm sure it'd be Raymond or maybe Holtz as he loved the Swedes but the new guy no idea. The one with the best analytics I guess will be the pick.

Myself, I'd hope somehow Sanderson fell to 8th (ranked 7th I think but rising in some views) cause I think he will be special and with him and Dahlin, we'd become a powerhouse on the back end but likely another guy who may or may not be something in 3 years but nowhere near immediate help, if ever. 

It all just sucks. 

We should be praying to God that Sanderson rises into the top 7 to push back someone who is a forward which is what we desperately need.

[Thorner]

6 minutes ago, carpandean said:

Only if they cost themselves a chance at the Cup by losing to the 24th overall team.  As the 7th-best team, the wouldn't even have made it to what would be the first round of the playoffs in a normal year.  Even then, they would only have a 12.5% of winning it.  Three very unlikely things would have to have happened, only one of which has now occurred.

Yes. 

[PerreaultForever]

1 minute ago, sabremike said:

We should be praying to God that Sanderson rises into the top 7 to push back someone who is a forward which is what we desperately need.

But, if we drafted Sanderson we could definitely trade Risto and/or Montour and get that 2C we need right now.

[apuszczalowski]

45 minutes ago, Thorny said:

No, 9-24 are involved in the play-in round, and if there is no play-in round, the bottom 8, 17-24 will get equal odds at #1. 

But it's all a bit confusing cause it's not reallly 9-24 in the play-in round. Pittsburgh is 7th overall and has to play in the play in due to the strength of the East. Pittsburgh is the highest ranked team that can win #1. 

I guess if the play in doesn't happen, 6 of the 8 teams with a shot at the pick are from the West. 

Ok, we are talking about the same teams, I was referring to the teams based on the draft positions, I was referring to the next 8 teams either eliminated or with the lowest records if they don't play, being teams 9-16 (making teams 1-8 the teams that were in the lottery, using 1 as the worst team...)

[DarthEbriate]

2 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:

But, if we drafted Sanderson we could definitely trade Risto and/or Montour and get that 2C we need right now.

Yes, but for 2+ years Risto hasn't equated a 2C on the trade market. I don't expect it to start now.

[SABRES 0311]

Do we stay at eight or trade up/down?

[apuszczalowski]

I really think it should have been a lottery of the teams that didn't make the playoffs only. If your in the play in round but not in a position that you would have been in the regular playoffs, you were already given a bonus of being able to get lucky and be in the playoffs with a chance at the cup. With the season being messed up, there's a good chance that one of the lower rated teams could pull off some upsets with the extra rest from the time off and potentially being in better shape to beat a better team that may be rustier? 

Also this gives incentive for a team that's not going to move on to tank the play in round and get a 1:8 chance to get a great young player. Its not like the revenue is going to be great for teams that aren't a host city, and if you are a host city it won't matter if your still playing or not, your going to make some money for hosting.

[apuszczalowski]

6 minutes ago, SABRES 0311 said:

Do we stay at eight or trade up/down?

Hard to say, with a new GM that has no track record to go off of, we don't have an idea what he's gonna do. We knew with TM he would fall in love with players and pay whatever it took to get them. With JB, we knew that he wanted a Sweede so it would depend if there were Sweedes available or if there were a bunch of CHLers that other teams would want so he could move down. We also knew that he would need alot of time to way all options before he would get fleeced making a move....