JohnC Posted June 26, 2020 Report Posted June 26, 2020 On 6/24/2020 at 1:36 PM, LGR4GM said: somewhere between 9 and 11 depending on how you view the 2 defenders. I've heard from 3 or 4 draft analysts on the radio that if you stay in the top ten range (as you noted) you will come away with a very good prospect. And they all seem to agree that if you are drafting within the top three location you will come out with an exceptional prospect. 1 Quote
nfreeman Posted June 26, 2020 Report Posted June 26, 2020 Is it wrong to want to win this lottery? We certainly didn't want to be in it, but now that we're here, it's OK to want to win, right? Or does it just make us more pathetic? Quote
LTS Posted June 26, 2020 Report Posted June 26, 2020 Just now, nfreeman said: Is it wrong to want to win this lottery? We certainly didn't want to be in it, but now that we're here, it's OK to want to win, right? Or does it just make us more pathetic? Nah, winning the lottery when not in last place is okay. I mean, not making the playoffs is bad... certainly.. but being last is the pathetic and being last and not winning the lottery is worse... Quote
Taro T Posted June 26, 2020 Report Posted June 26, 2020 1 minute ago, nfreeman said: Is it wrong to want to win this lottery? We certainly didn't want to be in it, but now that we're here, it's OK to want to win, right? Or does it just make us more pathetic? Gotta win something, right? 1 Quote
WildCard Posted June 26, 2020 Author Report Posted June 26, 2020 1 minute ago, nfreeman said: Is it wrong to want to win this lottery? We certainly didn't want to be in it, but now that we're here, it's OK to want to win, right? Or does it just make us more pathetic? lol ***** that of course we should want to win it Quote
LGR4GM Posted June 26, 2020 Report Posted June 26, 2020 1 hour ago, dudacek said: Dropping one spot or more (39.1 cent chance) would hurt. I see a tier ending at 7 and my 7 (Raymond) is giving me Nylander vibes. Moving into the top 3 (7.2) would be exciting. Winning Lafreniere (6.5) would be a game changer. Buffalo has never moved up in the lottery. In 2019 dropped 2 spots 2018 stayed the same 2017 dropped 2 spots 2016 stayed the same 2015 dropped one spot 2014 dropped one spot Who are your top 7/8? Also I do get some of that Nylander vibe from Raymond (who I have watched way more of in the last month and read a ton more about). Quote
LGR4GM Posted June 26, 2020 Report Posted June 26, 2020 1 hour ago, JohnC said: I've heard from 3 or 4 draft analysts on the radio that if you stay in the top ten range (as you noted) you will come away with a very good prospect. And they all seem to agree that if you are drafting within the top three location you will come out with an exceptional prospect. Yes. Keep in mind for the last 2 years, there has been an eyebrow raising top 10 pick so we should watch for that. Barrett Hayton, Moritz Seider, are the 2 I am thinking of. Those off the board (so to speak picks) really change things for anyone coming after. Seider helps us get Cozens for example. 1 Quote
nfreeman Posted June 26, 2020 Report Posted June 26, 2020 Here are the rules and the odds -- it's more complicated than usual because of the participation of the 8 teams who finished in slots 17-24: https://www.clickondetroit.com/sports/2020/06/23/nhl-draft-lottery-2020-is-friday-june-26-red-wings-have-best-odds/ The Sabres have a 6.5% chance (a bit less than 1-in-15 -- so what XGMTM would call a great chance) to win #1. The odds that they could move up to #2 or #3 will depend on who wins #1. Quote How the draft lottery will go It will consist of three drawings and include the seven teams whose season ended and eight placeholder positions. The lottery odds for the seven non-qualifying teams were determined by their points percentage during the 2019-20 regular season. The eight potential losing teams from the qualifiers will be represented in the First Phase of the draft lottery as unassigned picks. The first drawing of the First Phase will set the team selecting No. 1 in the draft, the second drawing will set the team selecting No. 2, and the third drawing will set the team selecting No. 3. If a team not in the bottom seven wins any of the first three drawings, a Second Phase will be conducted among the eight teams eliminated in the qualifiers. That would take place between the end of the qualifiers and the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. The NHL says if each of the three First Phase drawings is won by a bottom-seven team, the Second Phase will not be necessary. The remaining four teams from the bottom seven will be assigned picks No. 4-7 in inverse order of their regular-season points percentage, and picks No. 8-15 will be assigned to the teams that are eliminated from the qualifier in inverse order of their points percentage. Here are the first lottery drawing odds: Detroit Red Wings (.275) -- 18.5 percent chance for No. 1 pick Ottawa Senators (.437) -- 13.5 percent Ottawa Senators (from San Jose Sharks, .450) -- 11.5 percent Los Angeles Kings (.457) -- 9.5 percent Anaheim Ducks (.472) -- 8.5 percent New Jersey Devils (.493) -- 7.5 percent Buffalo Sabres (.493) -- 6.5 percent Qualifier Team A -- 6.0 percent Qualifier Team B -- 5.0 percent Qualifier Team C -- 3.5 percent Qualifier Team D -- 3.0 percent Qualifier Team E -- 2.5 percent Qualifier Team F -- 2.0 percent Qualifier Team G -- 1.5 percent Qualifier Team H -- 1.0 percent Quote
Sabre fan Posted June 26, 2020 Report Posted June 26, 2020 no doubt they'll drop us down a few notches again...hopefully we will draft a little better this year and have something to show for yet another losing season... Quote
dudacek Posted June 26, 2020 Report Posted June 26, 2020 (edited) 59 minutes ago, LGR4GM said: Who are your top 7/8? Also I do get some of that Nylander vibe from Raymond (who I have watched way more of in the last month and read a ton more about). My highly unqualified hot takes: Lafreniere is a stud, a complete player who will have a Jarome Iginla level career. Easy first choice. I am more leery than some on Byfield. He has all the tools to be Eric Staal, but I’m not sure he has the focus. I wouldn’t be disappointed if we moved up into the top three and picked him, but I’d also be fine if we took someone else there. Have paid the least attention to Stutzle for some reason, but I like him. Lack of attention means I’m not sure where I’d rank him overall, but I’m very comfortable with his game and his fit, and am OK with the Sabres taking him anywhere from 2-8 From the guys that might be there for us at 7, I really like Perfetti and Rossi. Their games are nothing alike, but they are both smart, competitive winners, my kind of hockey players. They will play in the top six and they both have upside. I’d give Perfetti the edge. As I’ve said earlier, Drysdale is too good not to take at 7 if the above guys are gone. And I’m fine with Raymond or Holtz if the above guys are gone. I don’t think Holtz will be a top player, but he will score 25-30 goals and have a solid career. Raymond is more boom or bust. He can be a first liner, but I see red flags. Haven’t paid enough attention to the guys ranked below that to form a strong opinion. Your guy Jarvis intrigues me. Edited June 26, 2020 by dudacek Quote
IKnowPhysics Posted June 26, 2020 Report Posted June 26, 2020 35 minutes ago, nfreeman said: Is it wrong to want to win this lottery? We certainly didn't want to be in it, but now that we're here, it's OK to want to win, right? Or does it just make us more pathetic? In 1835, when the United States was only 59 years old and states stretched only to somewhere in Missouri, a mentally ill man by the name of Richard Lawrence attempted to take the life of President Andrew Jackson. Lawrence, wielding two pistols, approached Jackson from behind and attempted to shoot Jackson in the back at point blank range. The first pistol misfired. The second pistol misfired. Jackson turned around and bludgeoned that man to within an inch of his life using his famous cane. When word got out to the young nation of Jackson's failed assassination, it was considered Divine Providence. It was believed that God was a guiding hand in the US and this was more evidence He wanted the nation to succeed. When laboratory tests were performed on the pistols, it was estimated that the chance of both pistols misfiring was 1 in 125,000. It doesn't matter what the odds are. We have Divine Providence. The Buffalo Sabres are on a mission from God. 2 2 Quote
MakeSabresGrr8Again Posted June 26, 2020 Report Posted June 26, 2020 1 hour ago, nfreeman said: Is it wrong to want to win this lottery? We certainly didn't want to be in it, but now that we're here, it's OK to want to win, right? Or does it just make us more pathetic? It's ok, we became Edmonton Part Deux a long time ago...lol. Quote
steveoath Posted June 26, 2020 Report Posted June 26, 2020 Over optimism Post alert. I think we get #1 to let RJ herald us into the playoffs with the remix.... La La La La Laaah La Lafreniere 8 1 Quote
Broken Ankles Posted June 26, 2020 Report Posted June 26, 2020 40 minutes ago, IKnowPhysics said: In 1835, when the United States was only 59 years old and states stretched only to somewhere in Missouri, a mentally ill man by the name of Richard Lawrence attempted to take the life of President Andrew Jackson. Lawrence, wielding two pistols, approached Jackson from behind and attempted to shoot Jackson in the back at point blank range. The first pistol misfired. The second pistol misfired. Jackson turned around and bludgeoned that man to within an inch of his life using his famous cane. When word got out to the young nation of Jackson's failed assassination, it was considered Divine Providence. It was believed that God was a guiding hand in the US and this was more evidence He wanted the nation to succeed. When laboratory tests were performed on the pistols, it was estimated that the chance of both pistols misfiring was 1 in 125,000. It doesn't matter what the odds are. We have Divine Providence. The Buffalo Sabres are on a mission from God. Quote
Palm Trees And Taxes Posted June 26, 2020 Report Posted June 26, 2020 Did the Tankathon 3 times this morning We ended up in the Top 3 all three times. Call it what it is: I'm feeling optimistic about the lottery finally being very kind to the Sabres. 1 1 Quote
Mustache of God Posted June 26, 2020 Report Posted June 26, 2020 I will willing eat a sandwich if we end up moving into the top 3. Mark it. 1 Quote
#freejame Posted June 26, 2020 Report Posted June 26, 2020 1 hour ago, MakeSabresGrr8Again said: It's ok, we became Edmonton Part Deux a long time ago...lol. Minus, ya know, one of the greatest histories in the NHL to fall back on. 1 Quote
MakeSabresGrr8Again Posted June 26, 2020 Report Posted June 26, 2020 1 minute ago, #freejame said: Minus, ya know, one of the greatest histories in the NHL to fall back on. Sorry, I know nothing about history any more. 1 Quote
DarthEbriate Posted June 26, 2020 Report Posted June 26, 2020 I hope we win! So, in summation for consensus thus far --- If we get to the top 3, we get LaFreniere, Byfield, or Stutzle. If we stick at 7 or 8, we want Perfetti, Rossi, or Drysdale. And if we fall to 10, we take a flier on Jarvis (if available)? Quote
freester Posted June 26, 2020 Report Posted June 26, 2020 1 hour ago, MakeSabresGrr8Again said: It's ok, we became Edmonton Part Deux a long time ago...lol. I wish we were as good as Edmonton Quote
French Collection Posted June 26, 2020 Report Posted June 26, 2020 1 hour ago, MakeSabresGrr8Again said: It's ok, we became Edmonton Part Deux a long time ago...lol. New Jersey has had 2 first overall picks in the past three years. If they win again they will be within reach of the Oilers. Sabres in the top three would be great. 1 Quote
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