True or false: Risto was much improved under Ralph?

[Eleven]

6 minutes ago, SwampD said:

I pretty much believe the exact opposite of this.

Especially with D.

I do too.  With respect to goalies as well.

[dudacek]

27 minutes ago, darksabre said:

So that kinda gets us to the crux of the discussion on Risto's ceiling and potential for any additional growth. I think you can expect a talented defenseman to find the mental part of his NHL game before the physical part, and not vice versa. These guys who improved later on did so because they improved their strength, conditioning, etc. They didn't gain hockey IQ or anything, their bodies simply allowed them to do what their brains wanted them to do. Their bodies grew to meet their hockey IQ.

Risto is physically gifted and pretty much always has been, but I don't think he's going to suddenly get smarter about the game at 26. 

So when we look for his room for improvement, the only thing I think he can really improve is physical. And I don't think there's much left to do there...

I’ll give you the possibility of conditioning being a factor in the leaps made by some, and that is not an area where Risto can improve, but as for the rest of it, I’m more with Swamp.

I don’t think think a defenceman’s athleticism improves at 28 over 23, what improves is judgement and anticipation, things that come with experience and maturity. Think about James Patrick and Teppo Numminen, how they played forever because they just let the game come to them.

I think Risto could do that if he adjusts his approach. A lot of players have. I don’t think he will though, because it’s really not in his nature; he is a bull, wired to charge.

Risto has been badly damaged by how he has been developed by this franchise. The damage is not irreparable; I think Ralph took steps in the right direction this year. 

But he needs positive reinforcement - wins - to continue along the right path and I don’t think our team is good enough to give it to him.

Edited May 20, 2020 by dudacek

[Pimlach]

2 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Carlson was good prior to his "breakout" and was in year 5 for that breakout followed by 2 injury filled years and then his year 28 year.

Burns is another player who was injured and then bam, suddenly he is playing 82 games a year. I would bet money his physical prep changed. 

Risto is already physically in great shape. This goes back to the chara issue. Chara got good because he finally grew into his massive body. Riso is at his peak physical level right now. What is he suddenly going to be able to do?  Process the game faster, think it differently, change his instincts? Unlikely. 

I worked with a guy from the Navy that told me he could only manage what he could measure.  The poor guy failed in just about every big assignment, despite his Annapolis pedigree.  Thinking strategically was not his thing. 

Process faster - Yes (experience).   Think differently - Yes, make less errors.   Change instincts - Yes, be a student of the game and know your teammates and your opponents.    Defenseman develop slower and they can continue to get better into their late 20's and early 30's .  We have named bunches them. 

 

 

 

 

 

[LGR4GM]

One of the things that makes Dahlin special is his creativity with the puck. When he sees an opening he has processed taking that space but also what comes after he is there, how others will react, what he will need to do next. That is what makes him so special. The ability to process the game at that level and have the skill to execute. Like the no look passes that go tape to tape. He finds the space, moves to it, opens up the lane and then has 2 options, continue forward or make the pass he knows is there in his periphery. 

 

IMPO, Ristolainen lacks that second step. He can get to there is open ice or the puck should go there but until that has happened and he can stop and re-assess the situation, he isn't ready to make that 2nd decision. Meanwhile Dahlin has already made decision 1, decision 2, and has options for decision 3. If Risto suddenly starts processing the game with that level of though, I will be surprised because nothing up to now really shows thats how he operates. 

[LGR4GM]

4 minutes ago, Pimlach said:

I worked with a guy from the Navy that told me he could only manage what he could measure.  The poor guy failed in just about every big assignment, despite his Annapolis pedigree.  Thinking strategically was not his thing. 

Process faster - Yes (experience).   Think differently - Yes, make less errors.   Change instincts - Yes, be a student of the game and know your teammates and your opponents.    Defenseman develop slower and they can continue to get better into their late 20's and early 30's .  We have named bunches them. 

You have not. All but 2 have been refuted. They were either in early parts of their career at 26 or had already had good seasons prior. So far the only names we have are Chara and maybe Pientrengelo. 

Experience does not make you process faster. It gives you more things you could process but it does not guarantee you will speed up how you analyze a situation. I work with people all the time who are 4 steps behind the rest even though they have more experience. 

Think of it this way. You have 5 options. They all exist at once. Some people will be able to process those 5 options all at once. Others will be able to process 1-2 at once because that is just how their brain is wired. The 1-2 person can have all the experience in the world but if they have not mentally reached a point where they can manage all those inputs, that doesn't make them process faster. In some cases it can slow them down. 

Edited May 20, 2020 by LGR4GM

[dudacek]

8 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

One of the things that makes Dahlin special is his creativity with the puck. When he sees an opening he has processed taking that space but also what comes after he is there, how others will react, what he will need to do next. That is what makes him so special. The ability to process the game at that level and have the skill to execute. Like the no look passes that go tape to tape. He finds the space, moves to it, opens up the lane and then has 2 options, continue forward or make the pass he knows is there in his periphery. 

 

IMPO, Ristolainen lacks that second step. He can get to there is open ice or the puck should go there but until that has happened and he can stop and re-assess the situation, he isn't ready to make that 2nd decision. Meanwhile Dahlin has already made decision 1, decision 2, and has options for decision 3. If Risto suddenly starts processing the game with that level of though, I will be surprised because nothing up to now really shows thats how he operates. 

I agree with all of this.

But you are comparing him to Rasmus Dahlin, who at 19 is already better than 90 per cent of the league at those things, and will likely be considered among the best of all-time when he gets the requisite experience.

 Risto doesn’t have to think three steps ahead to improve, he just has to make better binary decisions and his game will take a huge step. His mistakes often spring form trying to do too much, and a big part of that is he desperately wants to win, he’s been surrounded by ***** coaches and teammates, and he has decided that he can’t trust them.

9 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

You have not. All but 2 have been refuted. They were either in early parts of their career at 26 or had already had good seasons prior. So far the only names we have are Chara and maybe Pientrengelo. 

Im pretty sure I refuted your refutes pretty decisively ?

 

2 hours ago, dudacek said:

Guys, I’m not arguing with you on the main point of this one, but the fact remains that Burns, Giordano and Carlson had all established themselves in seven or more years of NHL play where we thought we knew “who they were”  before suddenly taking a leap into being elite.

These weren’t slow, steady climbs. 

Carlson had five years of 30-something points out of 7 before jumping from 37 points in 72 games to 68 in 82. He had only crested 40 points once. It was completely out of the blue.

Burns had topped 40 twice in NINE years before reeling off FIVE years of at least 60. No one saw it coming.

Giordano didn’t hit 50 in his first nine years either. He had his first at 32. It isn’t really relevant that he started later.

These guys all took big, unexpected jumps at a later point in their careers than Risto is now. It’s not as much of an anomaly as you are making it out to be.

 

[darksabre]

11 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I’ll give you the possibility of conditioning being a factor in the leaps made by some, and that is not an area where Risto can improve, but as for the rest of it, I’m more with Swamp.

I don’t think think a defenceman’s athleticism improves at 28 over 23, what improves is judgement and anticipation, things that come with experience and maturity. Think about James Patrick and Teppo Numminen, how they played forever because they just let the game come to them.

I think Risto could do that if he adjusts his approach. A lot of players have. I don’t think he will though, because it’s really not in his nature; he is a bull, wired to charge.

Risto has been badly damaged by how he has been developed by this franchise. The damage is not irreparable; I think Ralph took steps in the right direction this year. 

But he needs positive reinforcement - wins - to continue along the right path and I don’t think our team is good enough to give it to him.

Let me put something to you. Let's say your brain is a tool box.

Do you, personally, have a certain type of thing you're really good at? And do you feel like no matter what you do you can just keep adding new tools to the tool box?

For most NHL players, they spent their teenage years just adding and adding. They make it to the NHL because they have elite capacity to just keep adding. But once they're there things begin to separate out. The best players have nearly infinite capacity to add things to their toolbox, the 4th liners max out early. The only thing they can do is hope their work ethic and bodies are enough to let them hang around. Work ethic only gets you so far.

I think Risto's tool box is nearly full. I don't think there's much more he can add that will make him an appreciably different player than he is now.

[dudacek]

 

6 minutes ago, darksabre said:

Let me put something to you. Let's say your brain is a tool box.

Do you, personally, have a certain type of thing you're really good at? And do you feel like no matter what you do you can just keep adding new tools to the tool box?

For most NHL players, they spent their teenage years just adding and adding. They make it to the NHL because they have elite capacity to just keep adding. But once they're there things begin to separate out. The best players have nearly infinite capacity to add things to their toolbox, the 4th liners max out early. The only thing they can do is hope their work ethic and bodies are enough to let them hang around. Work ethic only gets you so far.

I think Risto's tool box is nearly full. I don't think there's much more he can add that will make him an appreciably different player than he is now.

I’m really good at wasting time debating the Buffalo Sabres when I should be working ?.

And yes, I can just keep adding. ☺️

(Im basically on board with this post, as it pertains to Risto, just less certain)

Edited May 20, 2020 by dudacek

[darksabre]

Just now, dudacek said:

 

I’m really good at wasting time debating the Buffalo Sabres when I should be working ?.

And yes, I can just keep adding. ☺️

I dunno, I don't think you're getting any better at it ?

[Weave]

Liger, I think you are referring to situational awareness.  It can be a learned skill.  The military teaches it.  Risto, of course, has to devote himself to it though.

[Curt]

4 hours ago, Curt said:

I’m just going to throw this fact out there.

Rasmus Ristolainen has improved his even strength point production over the past couple of years.

To elaborate on this, Risto’s ES points per 60 over the past few years.

2016- 0.75

2017- 0.71

2018- 0.74

2019- 1.03

2020- 1.10

Doesn’t prove anything, but it’s a pretty good jump.  It kind of went unnoticed because his PP production went down at the same time, with Dahlin taking a lot of those mins away. 

[Marvin]

Showing my age and bias.

IMHO, Ristolainen would benefit from having a partner like Tim Horton, Bill Hajt, or Mike Ramsey: a boring, heady player who learns his tendencies and how to compensate for them.  He needed to not be on a tank team his early years and he needed to not be paired with defencemen as out of gas as Meszaros, Benoit, and Strachan or players his age like Zadorov during said years.

[Broken Ankles]

1 hour ago, E4 ... Ke2 said:

Showing my age and bias.

IMHO, Ristolainen would benefit from having a partner like Tim Horton, Bill Hajt, or Mike Ramsey: a boring, heady player who learns his tendencies and how to compensate for them.  He needed to not be on a tank team his early years and he needed to not be paired with defencemen as out of gas as Meszaros, Benoit, and Strachan or players his age like Zadorov during said years.

Georges, McBain and Colaiacovo probably didn’t help much either. 

[MakeSabresGrr8Again]

2 hours ago, E4 ... Ke2 said:

Showing my age and bias.

IMHO, Ristolainen would benefit from having a partner like Tim Horton, Bill Hajt, or Mike Ramsey: a boring, heady player who learns his tendencies and how to compensate for them.  He needed to not be on a tank team his early years and he needed to not be paired with defencemen as out of gas as Meszaros, Benoit, and Strachan or players his age like Zadorov during said years.

Maybe one of our analytics people can confirm  but, didn't he show his better numbers playing paired with Pilut? If so, that's a far cry from the type you are suggesting and might be food for thought.

Just asking for 2 friends, a co-worker, 4 total strangers, and my wife.

[Curt]

1 minute ago, MakeSabresGrr8Again said:

Maybe one of our analytics people can confirm  but, didn't he show his better numbers playing paired with Pilut? If so, that's a far cry from the type you are suggesting and might be food for thought.

Just asking for 2 friends, a co-worker, 4 total strangers, and my wife.

A boring, heady player?  That sounds like Pilut.  That’s his game.  Get the puck, pass the puck, make good decisions.

[MakeSabresGrr8Again]

7 minutes ago, Curt said:

A boring, heady player?  That sounds like Pilut.  That’s his game.  Get the puck, pass the puck, make good decisions.

But not nearly a Ramsey, Hajt, nor Horton.

[Curt]

Just now, MakeSabresGrr8Again said:

But not nearly a Ramsey, Hajt, nor Horton.

Never saw them.  I assume they were smart, keep it simple type players?  Bigger, better versions of Pilut?

[Taro T]

10 hours ago, darksabre said:

You're talking points production though, not defensive acumen. Risto's problem has never been points, his problem is playing sound defense. Through every season of his Sabres career he has never had a year where the team controlled the puck more with him on the ice than without. He's only had a positive CF% rel ONCE. All these other players we're comparing him with were hitting those marks earlier and often.

Risto compares more closely with Hal Gill than any of these other guys.

I just don't know if I'm confident that he can develop a defensive game the same way that a lot of other defensemen have developed their scoring.

Hal slow as #### Gill, who came into the league in the late '90's, is the Ristolainen comparable based on Gill's possession metrics?  (Combining your argument from your next post & this one.)  "Analytics" weren't even a thing until Gil was a year or 2 older than Risto is now.  Really not understanding the analogy.

[LGR4GM]

14 hours ago, Curt said:

To elaborate on this, Risto’s ES points per 60 over the past few years.

2016- 0.75

2017- 0.71

2018- 0.74

2019- 1.03

2020- 1.10

Doesn’t prove anything, but it’s a pretty good jump.  It kind of went unnoticed because his PP production went down at the same time, with Dahlin taking a lot of those mins away. 

Compare that to the leagues ES scoring rate over the same period. If I remember correctly, league scoring increased. 

[Taro T]

39 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Compare that to the leagues ES scoring rate over the same period. If I remember correctly, league scoring increased. 

By ~40%?

[Curt]

56 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Compare that to the leagues ES scoring rate over the same period. If I remember correctly, league scoring increased. 

League ES scoring increased about 14% from the 2017 to 2018 season, from about 2.1 to about 2.4 ES goals per game.

Risto actually didn’t see an increase in production at that time, but did the following season.  His ES production increased by over 30% in the 2019 season, and more in 2020.

So, even accounting for increased league scoring, Risto still has had a healthy jump.

[LGR4GM]

32 minutes ago, Taro T said:

By ~40%?

Calm down. I was simply asking it to be compared to really understand what the jump was. 

9 minutes ago, Curt said:

League ES scoring increased about 14% from the 2017 to 2018 season, from about 2.1 to about 2.4 ES goals per game.

Risto actually didn’t see an increase in production at that time, but did the following season.  His ES production increased by over 30% in the 2019 season, and more in 2020.

So, even accounting for increased league scoring, Risto still has had a healthy jump.

Okay, how many more ES minutes was he playing? If his pp time went down but his TOI stayed similar it had to be replaced with PK or ES time. What was his ES p/60?

[Curt]

29 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Calm down. I was simply asking it to be compared to really understand what the jump was. 

Okay, how many more ES minutes was he playing? If his pp time went down but his TOI stayed similar it had to be replaced with PK or ES time. What was his ES p/60?

All numbers that I used were ES p/60

[LGR4GM]

Oh I see that at the top. Thank you. 

[Xzy89c]

17 hours ago, Curt said:

Never saw them.  I assume they were smart, keep it simple type players?  Bigger, better versions of Pilut?

not even close.  trying to compare those guys into the current NHL is equal to wondering if leather helmet NFL players could play in today's NFL.