Report: “Another Disconnect” Between Botterill and Krueger

[That Aud Smell]

^
Chad/Chet said in the replies that this inferred disconnect is not about Skinner.

[spndnchz]

Umm. It tmrw

[LGR4GM]

14 minutes ago, spndnchz said:

Umm. It tmrw

Are you looking for the article?

2 hours ago, Indabuff said:

Busy as hell at work and don't have time to read.  What's the bottom line?  All Sabres' brass sucks?

 

2 hours ago, dudacek said:

Sabres defencemen don’t do a lot of controlled break-ins under Ralph.

And they do a lot of dump ins even though they aren't good at retrieval. Further defenders are specifically not rushing the puck up ice. Basically we're regressing to Bylsma dump n chase hockey because we hired a motivational speaker not a hardened nhl coach. 

Edited April 29, 2020 by LGR4GM

[spndnchz]

3 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Are you looking for the article?

 

And they do a lot of dump ins even though they aren't good at retrieval. Further defenders are specifically not rushing the puck up ice. Basically we're regressing to botterill dump n chase hockey because we hired a motivational speaker not a hardened nhl coach. 

Saying some article is coming... there’s nothing coming

[LGR4GM]

Just now, spndnchz said:

Saying some article is coming... there’s nothing coming

It's already been posted. 

10 hours ago, darksabre said:

The story went up an hour ago nerds 

 

@spndnchz

[SwampD]

46 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Are you looking for the article?

 

And they do a lot of dump ins even though they aren't good at retrieval. Further defenders are specifically not rushing the puck up ice. Basically we're regressing to Bylsma dump n chase hockey because we hired a motivational speaker not a hardened nhl coach. 

The article even says that they are kinda good at it.

[Randall Flagg]

Chad's hockey (and insider) input is not worth how obnoxious he is about it 

 

i didnt read this one, but I see you guys are talking about dumping in the pucks versus skating it into the offensive zone. There aren't that many times I'd want a defender skating into the zone with the puck, even Dahlin. Did he analyze passing sequences as well? Because Dahlin had many great transition passes at all levels of the ice this year 

[dudacek]

26 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

i didnt read this one, but I see you guys are talking about dumping in the pucks versus skating it into the offensive zone. There aren't that many times I'd want a defender skating into the zone with the puck, even Dahlin. Did he analyze passing sequences as well? Because Dahlin had many great transition passes at all levels of the ice this year 

I hope @LGR4GM considers stuff like this before he locks into stuff like this.

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

And they do a lot of dump ins even though they aren't good at retrieval. Further defenders are specifically not rushing the puck up ice. Basically we're regressing to Bylsma dump n chase hockey because we hired a motivational speaker not a hardened nhl coach. 

 

[spndnchz]

There’s a whole bunch of stuff there. Did you want Bogo crossing the blue line or Eichel? Know your place and play that style when those guys are on the ice. Shutdown vs protect the game is not rocket science 

[Curt]

1 hour ago, Randall Flagg said:

Chad's hockey (and insider) input is not worth how obnoxious he is about it 

i didnt read this one, but I see you guys are talking about dumping in the pucks versus skating it into the offensive zone. There aren't that many times I'd want a defender skating into the zone with the puck, even Dahlin. Did he analyze passing sequences as well? Because Dahlin had many great transition passes at all levels of the ice this year 

Just read it.  It’s not that long.

[Eleven]

26 minutes ago, spndnchz said:

There’s a whole bunch of stuff there. Did you want Bogo crossing the blue line or Eichel? Know your place and play that style when those guys are on the ice. Shutdown vs protect the game is not rocket science 

There's also the bit about misusing Skinner, which Krueger has.

[Cascade Youth]

This franchise.  THIS FRANCHISE.

Is Botts gonna get to hire another head coach?

Nope.

Is TP gonna get to hire another GM?

Yup. 

[dudacek]

I don’t know if the numbers will bear this out, but I think we saw Ras carry the puck into the zone more as the season went along.

I also gotta ask, do we want our other D carrying the puck in?

I mean, I love Joki passing it out, and Montour and Miller can lug it out pretty good, but lugging it in? Is that really better than dumping it in when you are playing with Larry’s line? Or passing it to Marcus or Jack and letting them carry it in when you’re out with them?

Also, is there really such a thing as “it’s always better to carry it in”? Isn’t there such thing as deciding whether to dump or carry based on how you are being defended? Even on a period to period or rush to rush basis?

Edited April 30, 2020 by dudacek

[LGR4GM]

1 hour ago, SwampD said:

The article even says that they are kinda good at it.

13th is kinda good? 

[SwampD]

24 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I don’t know if the numbers will bear this out, but I think we saw Ras carry the puck into the zone more as the season went along.

I also gotta ask, do we want our other D carrying the puck in?

I mean, I love Joki passing it out, and Montour and Miller can lug it out, pretty good, but lugging it in? Is that really better than dumping it in when you are playing with Larry’s line? Or passing it to Marcus or Jack and letting them carry it in when you’re out with them?

Also, is there really such a thing as “it’s always better to carry it in”? Isn’t there such thing as deciding whether to dump or carry based on how you are being defended? Even on a period to period or rush to rush basis?

I think it’s a completely faulty conclusion. Actually, there is no way to even make a conclusion based on what he tracked.

We all know that the problem with the Sabres has been the forwards. So even though the D is playing the kind of transition game that Botterill envisions, but our forwards are incapable of getting a shot, therefor the D doesn’t get a shot assist,.. it means there is a disconnect between Ralph and Jason.

Oof. I think I just pulled a muscle just thinking of reaching for that one.

Edited April 30, 2020 by SwampD

[LGR4GM]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

I hope @LGR4GM considers stuff like this before he locks into stuff like this.

 

Lol,  I definitely consider someone who didn't read the article. 

The article discusses other things besides just dump ins. 

Edited April 30, 2020 by LGR4GM

[SwampD]

1 minute ago, LGR4GM said:

13th is kinda good? 

It’s better than not good.

[LGR4GM]

2 minutes ago, SwampD said:

It’s better than not good.

#BetterThanNotGood

Buffalo Sabres unofficial logo. 

[Stoner]

Imma go lick a park bench.

[Weave]

Just now, PASabreFan said:

Imma go lick a park bench.

*wonders if PA goes for the seat or the backrest*

[Stoner]

1 minute ago, Weave said:

*wonders if PA goes for the seat or the backrest*

Neither. Imma lie on my back and get under the seat.

[Randall Flagg]

OK - the carry part of that article is certainly interesting, and the Sabres are definitely an outlier compared to the rest of the league. However, I don't think it impacts our offensive capabilities all that much - because I think for any team, a defender's role in transition is far more likely to be an initial pass than either carrying the puck or dumping it in (and let's be real here - when McCabe or Miller or Dahlin or Risto is dumping it in, it is quite often the case that the Sabres need to change, in which case NO entry attempt is going to be successful, or even try to be). These "Defenseman passing" cases are only treated in the first graph posted in the article. If you look at ONLY the defensemen[NOTE - I discovered that there's something wrong with this graph, but left it here, read on for details]:

The Sabres' distribution is fairly safe and average, based on a qualitative glance - the general shape of Sabre distributions matches the overall profile of all NHL defensemen reasonably well.They are perhaps a little bit below average with controlled zone entries on the whole (purely looking at the x axis) but the top 10% of offensive zone entries only average about 3 zone entries more per 60 minutes of 5v5 ice time than the Sabres' defenders. Jake McCabe was probably used averagely by our staff, and had something like 15-18 5v5 minutes any given night - so if that is typical, then the Sabres' individuals differ from a high-end zone-entering-defenseman by about one zone entry per game each. And that's from the high end players - other teams are not composed entirely of Cale Makars. I think this impact on offensive performance or even team identity is minimal, a couple of successful zone entries via a defender's legs per game at most. He did no analysis to determine whether or not the Sabres made up for this by passing the puck instead. 

This shows that four Sabres defenders were better than league average at exiting the zone with possession, and two were straddling the line of average, with only two being notably below it - showing that the Sabres' defenders were quite capable of executing the transition pass in question (this might also include skating exits, data not clear). But only 3 of 8 Sabres on the list are above league average in zone exit ATTEMPTS per unit ice time, which is curious. This characteristic is evident for the entire Sabres team in fact - zone exits of ANY attempt lag below league average, with more than two thirds of all Sabre skaters on this plot being below the average line, with no positive outliers. If the Sabres are exiting their own zone less often than the average team, of course their defender zone entries via skating will also lag behind - all entry types will. This is shown below:

When you come back to the first chart:

The guys in circles are all defenseman (and I see something wrong with the first chart I posted then, which was supposed to be the same one with defensemen isolated - there are defenders in this circle that aren't in the first chart). Four Sabre D are above average in "shot assists" from the neutral or defensive zone - passes from these areas that lead to shots on goal. Three are below. Considering that we are very bad at generating shots as a whole, it is impressive that more than half our D are above average at doing this per minute of ice time, and it tells me their transition methods may well be to focus on passing over skating, not on "dumping" over skating. I don't have numbers, but you can all close your eyes and picture "Sabre D dumping the puck in" - it's when the forwards are rapidly skating to the bench for a chaneg after a puck recovery, or when they are stationary after an offsides faceoff, won back to the D, who have nothing else to do with the forwards flat-footed and covered. It's not something any team's D will try to do in the type of controlled setting that coaching styles attempt to influence. Our defenders pass well, and create shots above average, according to this graphic, even considering that the team's low shot attempts on the whole are stacked against them performing well on this axis. 

When you look at the shape of the Sabre distribution, compared to all other NHL skaters in this last graph, I don't see a huge problem with team transition - more than half of the skaters are at or above average in each dimension, with good outliers like Eichel, Joki, Mojo, Miller, Sheary (what?). This graph measures results, not attempts, and the Sabres get good transition results WHILE getting low transition attempts.The offensive problems of this team arise solely from what happens once they get to that zone, as Swamp points out in many, many fewer words.

So going forward the things that interest me are:
1.) Why do the Sabres head up the ice with the puck less often than other teams? Is it a function of the long, dragging style of offense they play? (Safe, around the boards, cycle, board battles, no rapid-fire slot pass chances that are dangerous but more prone to promptly ending the zone time with a turnover) A function of their defense chasing for long periods of time? (I don't think they chase longer than most teams, they're not that bad at defense)

2.) What are our issues once we finally get to the offensive zone? Because this is definitely the area in which we SEVERELY lag the rest of the league. Like, fewest scoring chances for three years running, stuff like that. I tried to answer that with a project last summer, I don't think I got all that far, and rakish is really onto something I think.

I can't seem to get rid of this last image^ pls ignore it 

Edited April 30, 2020 by Randall Flagg

[SwampD]

Good post.

So tell us, why do Botterill and Krueger hate each other?

[Randall Flagg]

This is my problem with Chad as a whole. It's really, really hard to sort hockey events into a small number categories, with all events being uniform/similar in nature in each category. Something like this analysis he does takes a billion situations and reduces it to two or three choices/types. I discovered how hard this is to do properly when I did the Bylsma/Canes project: 

I had 15 distinct, unique "results" when I counted Sabre/Cane transition attempts, and that was after consolidating for time purposes in the hopes of not driving myself crazy and being able to keep up with the game live(you'll see that some tallies are underlined, those underlines meant something specific, and the colors did too). He's using 4, dump failures/successes and carry failures/successes. I had to count dump ins for changes differently, and whether or not the skater in question was facing pressure. I WANTED to quantify this pressure, as not all forechecking attempts are equal, but it got way too complicated. The less in-depth you are when you do this, the more you are fulfilling the stereotype of perusing your stat sheets, scoffing at the notion of "watching the games." Because there is a massive variety of characteristics of each of those "successful carries," which are ignored. Maybe Colorado's blazing fast, intimidating forwards make entry attempts a lot easier on Cale Makar than Miller has it coming up the ice with the glaring mug of...Evan Rodrigues...and the prospect of defending him. 

What Chad does is look at the chart, say "dumps are bad because they result in goals less often" (no *****, but that doesn't mean every scenario that leads to a dump-in would present a successful skating entry if merely a different choice was made by the skater) and then post articles about it on twitter, always condescendingly like the "old boy's club just doesn't get how cutting edge we are," and then is really ***** touchy and pathetic the second someone tries to critique the way he's "analyzing" things. 

And then he pulls ***** like the way he presented this publication (he ABSOLUTELY wanted it to sound like it did), and it makes me so angry that once in a while he calls the Rodrigues trade and therefore DOES have a shred of credibility 

Edited April 30, 2020 by Randall Flagg

[Randall Flagg]

In the chart with my blue circle, it's also worth recalling the isolated defensemen. There are only fifteen defenders to the right of the u in Montour's name in the chart with the blue circle, and they're almost all below the average line. No team's defenders impact their zone entries via skating anywhere close to as much as the forwards do. It's just not that telling of a measure and certainly doesn't mean anything concrete about Krueger and how he would like to move the puck

Edited April 30, 2020 by Randall Flagg