Sabres “salary cap space is a mirage” per Yerdon in Athletic

[dudacek]

Resurrecting this thread because The Athletic has a great piece today on what the cap is going to do to the free agent market. Basically, the cap is a zero sum equation and the teams who have cap space to shop will be shopping at a massive 1/3 off sale.

https://theathletic.com/1860985/2020/06/10/what-a-flat-salary-cap-is-going-to-mean-for-the-nhls-free-agent-market/

A year ago, assuming perfectly efficient use of cap space, NHL teams had $2.9 million to spend per vacant roster spot. That’s in line with what we’ve seen every summer since the league added the Golden Knights; the average is just under $3 million per roster spot.

This summer it’s $1.9 million, a 36 percent drop from the past three years.

[dudacek]

And

It’s not possible to squeeze the guys on the bottom of the depth chart. It’s dangerous to be too aggressive with key restricted free agents, though doubtless they’ll feel some of the pinch, perhaps with more teams/players opting for bridge deals over long-term pacts. Trading away money will be difficult and in some cases impossible, while buyouts leave long and ugly blocks of dead money years into the future.

The most squishable class of player is the unrestricted free agent, and this offseason it’s going to be squished.

[darksabre]

Very excited to see how Botterill somehow screws up being gifted a stagnant salary cap because of a global pandemic. 

[darksabre]

Did anyone else see the thing about Botterill's contract? Apparently there was a May 15th cutoff date and the Pegulas missed it and ended up having to pay him a performance bonus, so that's why he's still here.

[dudacek]

12 minutes ago, darksabre said:

Did anyone else see the thing about Botterill's contract? Apparently there was a May 15th cutoff date and the Pegulas missed it and ended up having to pay him a performance bonus, so that's why he's still here.

Where’s this? And what kind of “performance” bonus could botterill have possibly hit?

[Weave]

9 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Where’s this? And what kind of “performance” bonus could botterill have possibly hit?

It has to be tenure based, right?  We’ll pay you a bonus if you’re still here 3 yrs from now.

[Brawndo]

10 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Where’s this? And what kind of “performance” bonus could botterill have possibly hit?

He was still employed?

[darksabre]

3 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Where’s this? And what kind of “performance” bonus could botterill have possibly hit?

 

I don't know for sure, but I had heard about it a while back from someone here and now it comes up briefly on DBTB this week. About 2:45 mark. 

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/episode-126-mock-offseason-2-0/id1113848918?i=1000477155077 

[ubkev]

1 hour ago, darksabre said:

Did anyone else see the thing about Botterill's contract? Apparently there was a May 15th cutoff date and the Pegulas missed it and ended up having to pay him a performance bonus, so that's why he's still here.

No *****in' way!

[nfreeman]

This seems highly unlikely to be true -- but it's a good indicator of the fans' lack of trust in the organization that some are ready to believe it and many more aren't ready to immediately call BS.

[GASabresIUFAN]

On 6/10/2020 at 6:21 PM, dudacek said:

And

It’s not possible to squeeze the guys on the bottom of the depth chart. It’s dangerous to be too aggressive with key restricted free agents, though doubtless they’ll feel some of the pinch, perhaps with more teams/players opting for bridge deals over long-term pacts. Trading away money will be difficult and in some cases impossible, while buyouts leave long and ugly blocks of dead money years into the future.

The most squishable class of player is the unrestricted free agent, and this offseason it’s going to be squished.

I said earlier that we will see many 1 year deals which both GMs and RFAs/UFAs want so that they can kick the can down the road a season and hope things return to normal.

I was reading elsewhere where comps to Reinhart like Larkin and Ehlers signed in the 6 to 6.5 range.  How does Reinhart get 8.7 when the comps are at 6? Where is the Eichel like breakout season to demand a over-market contract especially in these times. 
 

 

[DarthEbriate]

52 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I said earlier that we will see many 1 year deals which both GMs and RFAs/UFAs want so that they can kick the can down the road a season and hope things return to normal.

I was reading elsewhere where comps to Reinhart like Larkin and Ehlers signed in the 6 to 6.5 range.  How does Reinhart get 8.7 when the comps are at 6? Where is the Eichel like breakout season to demand a over-market contract especially in these times.

Paraphrasing @dudacek from over on Reinhart thread, it isn't. The 8.7 from Yerdon's article just doesn't make sense. And as Dudacek has been reminding me, Reino's leverage will be the bridge deal to save the Sabres money... (aside: while we had to pay ROR and extend Kane/signSkinner...eek) while he bet on himself. While he's been good, he's not been great. That 8+ is reserved for point-per-game or elite goal-scorers which Reino has shown each season he is not. He's a solid 1W/2W, savvy guy. And his major drawback is a team drawback in that we don't know how he'll respond to playoff hockey and being finished on each check and harassed and held. I'm of the mind that 6.5 should be his cap based on comparables. @dudacek , at risk of putting any words to his mouth, is in the 7 range because of the bridge.

And you're right -- there is no breakout. Yet. We have to hope that he signs low-ish, and then has that breakout and sustains it for several playoff-filled years.

[Thorner]

On 6/10/2020 at 8:18 PM, dudacek said:

Where’s this? And what kind of “performance” bonus could botterill have possibly hit?

Missing the playoffs by within 3 spots. 

On 6/10/2020 at 8:04 PM, darksabre said:

Did anyone else see the thing about Botterill's contract? Apparently there was a May 15th cutoff date and the Pegulas missed it and ended up having to pay him a performance bonus, so that's why he's still here.

Is the implication that all else being equal they wanted him gone? And now he's their GM headed into next season instead, even though they don't think him capable?

[Thorner]

3 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I said earlier that we will see many 1 year deals which both GMs and RFAs/UFAs want so that they can kick the can down the road a season and hope things return to normal.

I was reading elsewhere where comps to Reinhart like Larkin and Ehlers signed in the 6 to 6.5 range.  How does Reinhart get 8.7 when the comps are at 6? Where is the Eichel like breakout season to demand a over-market contract especially in these times. 
 

 

Does this refer to JB as well, in your view?

[darksabre]

1 hour ago, Thorny said:

Missing the playoffs by within 3 spots. 

Is the implication that all else being equal they wanted him gone? And now he's their GM headed into next season instead, even though they don't think him capable?

I don't really know what to take from it. I think maybe the idea is they might have been more motivated to let him go if they had remembered they owed him a bonus...

[Curt]

1 hour ago, Thorny said:

Missing the playoffs by within 3 spots. 

Is the implication that all else being equal they wanted him gone? And now he's their GM headed into next season instead, even though they don't think him capable?

When is the parade???  
 

I don’t believe that they were ever going to fire Botterill this offseason, in the middle of a pandemic, with the balance of the NHL season up in the air.

[Thorner]

1 hour ago, darksabre said:

I don't really know what to take from it. I think maybe the idea is they might have been more motivated to let him go if they had remembered they owed him a bonus...

So Botterill would have been let go pre-bonus, "becoming" a version his own worst enemy, the ROR deal, like Neo becoming one with the Matrix and Agent Smith. 

Edited June 13, 2020 by Thorny

[darksabre]

14 minutes ago, Thorny said:

So Botterill would have been let go pre-bonus, "becoming" a version his own worst enemy, the ROR deal, like Neo becoming one with the Matrix and Agent Smith. 

It certainly would have been poetic!