Sabres “salary cap space is a mirage” per Yerdon in Athletic

[Curt]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

Reinhart $8.7, Montour $4.8 and Larsson at $3.1 all seem significantly on the high side even before COVID-19 crushed the cap. The Sabres have all the leverage necessary to bring Olofsson and Kahun in under the 4.9 and 2.9 they’re listed at here as well.

I can’t read the article.

Dang!  That a Reinhart projection is terrible!  He isn’t getting that.  No way!  I think that is about $2M high.

The rest seem pretty close, depending on term.  Some maybe just a tad high (~$0.5M), but reasonable.

With contract projections like these, no wonder his article paints a cap doom picture.  It’s not nearly that bad in reality.

 

Edited April 28, 2020 by Curt

[darksabre]

Y'all understand who the GM is right? The cap moron himself? 

[Curt]

1 hour ago, #freejame said:

If Covid has taught me one thing it’s that I don’t need the Sabres. If Larsson gets $3.1 I’ll stop being a fan. 

Larsson at $3.1 is a bargain compared to Reinhart at $8.7.  That’s crazyness.  Highest prediction I’ve seen for Sam.

[Stoner]

1 hour ago, Taro T said:

Facts?  You might want to talk to @Eleven about facts. ?

Yerdon takes a worst case look at pretty much all the RFA's and probably Dahlin as well (not sure if he gives Dahlin the $800k he seems to have earned or the $3MM he has a shot a earning with some luck if the season restarts) to set the stage for his article.  Do we really expect Reinhart to get almost $9MM/year?

Unless the cap shrinks a lot, the Sabres will be OK.  Provided they don't do foolish things like bringing Simmonds back.  But people will be upset because Thompson is pencilled into the lineup.

I just wanna say I am delighted that Taro has a new whipping boy. Don't worry, Eleven, it'll only last 12 years.

[Taro T]

1 minute ago, Curt said:

Larsson at $3.1 is a bargain compared to Reinhart at $8.7.  That’s crazyness.  Highest prediction I’ve seen for Sam.

But, using realistic projections doesn't result in a "the Sabres are DOOOOOOOMED" clickbait article.  (They probably ARE doomed, but not because of the cap. :p. Maybe it's just we're doomed.  So hard to tell nowadays. ? )

[Curt]

1 minute ago, Taro T said:

But, using realistic projections doesn't result in a "the Sabres are DOOOOOOOMED" clickbait article.  (They probably ARE doomed, but not because of the cap. :p. Maybe it's just we're doomed.  So hard to tell nowadays. ? )

Haha, agree, but there are so many completely valid avenues for slamming the Buffalo Sabres without having to bend the “truth” like that.  Doomed for many reasons, but the 2020-21 cap situation isn’t really one of them.

[Eleven]

14 minutes ago, PASabreFan said:

I just wanna say I am delighted that Taro has a new whipping boy. Don't worry, Eleven, it'll only last 12 years.

He'll be back to normal once this virus thing is over.  I've been giving him extra latitude because I know he's cranky right now.

[dudacek]

Again, even if Yerdon overestimated what the Sabres will pay for their RFAs, there is still the issue of every team in the league facing the same issue of a static cap and most teams having less flexibility than the Sabres do.

Under a static cap, Buffalo has nearly $34 million to fill 12 open roster spots or nearly 3 million per player.

The Leafs have $5.5 million to fill 7 spots, including Barrie, Dermott and Ceci. The Bruins have $19 million to fill 7, including Krug and Debrusk. Tampa has $5 million to fill nine spots, including Cirelli and Sergachev.

I don’t have the time to go team by team through capfriendly, but the SAbres have more cap space than all but a handful of teams, and likely more space per open spot than about that many as well.

This situation is not a problem for the Sabres, it’s a huge opportunity that cannot be squandered.

Edited April 28, 2020 by dudacek

[nfreeman]

This thread is a humiliating setback for @freester.

[DarthEbriate]

Yikes, these are some high-side estimates on the contracts. The statement is accurate, there won't be as much money left for that handy 2C (free agent or trade acquisition) because we've got to spend a bunch just to keep our RFAs. The odd/concerning thing is see so much of the roster on expired contracts at the same time. 

[Pimlach]

Botterill has really struggled in this job.  Bright young man but he doesn’t appear to be ready to wear the daddy pants.  
 

Thankful that the Bills have Brandon Beane.  What a difference.  

[nfreeman]

Having now read the article, I will say that Yardon's assumption that Larsson will get $3.1MM x 4 years is nuts.  And I agree with those upthread who said that Yardon overestimated Reino's new deal and others.

I also don't agree with this:

Quote

Letting Zemgus Girgensons, Wayne Simmonds, Scott Wilson, Michael Frolik, and Jimmy Vesey go to fill out the roster with cheaper free agents and mostly unproven prospects doesn’t sound like a great plan unless those prospects all blossom.

Those are a bunch of JAGs who are easily replaceable and not worth much more than NHL minimum.

Overall, it seemed like Yardon -- who I think is reasonably knowledgeable about the team -- had an idea for a take and tried to bend the facts to suit his position.

And I did agree with this, which was his main point, although IMHO most of the rest of the article well overstated it:

Quote

However, the oodles of cap space the Sabres appear to have on the surface is a bit of a mirage.

 

[shrader]

Yerdon

[nfreeman]

2 minutes ago, shrader said:

Yerdon

You just made the death list buddy.  

[Zamboni]

I can’t see Reinhart getting north of 7.2mil. More likely he gets 6 -6.5mil.

[SHAAAUGHT!!!]

10 hours ago, nfreeman said:

Overall, it seemed like Yardon -- who I think is reasonably knowledgeable about the team -- had an idea for a take and tried to bend the facts to suit his position.

And I did agree with this, which was his main point, although IMHO most of the rest of the article well overstated it:

"However, the oodles of cap space the Sabres appear to have on the surface is a bit of a mirage."

This was one of the few bad articles I've read since joining the Athletic.  

Some of the contract estimates were way off, but the mirage comment is silly at best.  Yes Yerdon, the Sabres will have to spend that cap space to fill out their roster.  That won't be there forever.  What it does it gives the Sabres plenty of flexibility to make moves and revamp as much of the roster as possible.  

Edited April 29, 2020 by SHAAAUGHT!!!

[GASabresIUFAN]

19 hours ago, freester said:

In today’s Athletic Joe Yerdon wrote an article discussing Sabres cap situation. It’s not pretty. Unless we unload a big contract like Risto, or do a compliance buyout (unlikely) or trade an RFA due for a big contract we will have very little flexibility to add to our roster. We may not even be able to afford Johann Larson. 

 

17 hours ago, dudacek said:

Not saying Joe is wrong, but what he’s projecting is a bit of a worst-case scenario, no?

Reinhart $8.7, Montour $4.8 and Larsson at $3.1 all seem significantly on the high side even before COVID-19 crushed the cap. The Sabres have all the leverage necessary to bring Olofsson and Kahun in under the 4.9 and 2.9 they’re listed at here as well.

Its not just the owners who are feeling the cap crunch from the pandemic. There is also less money to go around for the players as well, and that will be shown in lower-dollar contracts for this summer’s free agents.

The Sabres are set on D and likely in goal. They have five UFAs up front and, if they wish, they can plug Asplund, Thompson, Mittelstadt and/or Cozens on very cheap deals into three of those slots, meaning they only have to sign/acquire two outside bodies.

Finally, the cap world is a zero-sum model: what is most relevant is the amount of space you have relative to other teams in the league and the amount of roster spots you need to fill. Whatever the cap ends up, the Sabres ratio of available cap space to roster space remains among the best in the league.

It’s just a matter of a GM using it better than Joe did.

 

17 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

I would trade Montour before signing him. I think I prefer Risto over Montour. 

I've laid out the cap scenario in the off-season and lineup threads weeks ago and got skewered for pointing out that we'd have to plug in young guys on the 3rd line to re-sign our key RFAs and acquire the 2C we desperately need.  I wrote that we'd have to move on from at least one of the current D from the pool of Montour, Risto, Miller and or McCabe to make everything work and keep Larsson.  I wrote that taking on Kahun as an RFA was one of the key forward acquisitions for next season.   I don't know why Yerdon's article is a surprise to people, however his Reinhart, Montour and VO numbers are unrealistic given the current climate.  VO isn't getting $5 a year regardless of the cap number.  One good 3/4 season doesn't justify a $4 mil raise.  Montour also isn't getting that kind of number given his recent season.  If any of these guys sign long-term deals in this environment they'd be crazy.  Kahun and Ullmark's numbers seem reasonable, and maybe a little low.   I wrote back on March 10th in the off-season thread; Reinhart 7 for 52 mill (7.43), Montour 5 for 22.5 (4.5), but I now I think it will be lower, VO 3 for 10 (3.33), Kahun 3 for 10 (3.33) and Ullmark 4 for 12 (3).  Except for Montour, I think these are still pretty good estimates.  

In another article they estimate our RFA cost at 24 million, but don't breakout to whom and how much.  They then conclude we'll only have about 10.5 mill on a cap of 81.5 mill. Our RFAs are Reinhart, Kahun, VO, Lazar, Montour and Ullmark.  Non-roster key RFAs are Mitts, Thomspon, and Pilut. 

Also paying Larsson 3.1 is nuts.  I know he has earned a huge fan club over the last 2 season and I'd also like to see him back if possible, but 3.1 is out of the question.  

https://theathletic.com/1765324/2020/04/29/mirtle-ranking-every-nhl-teams-salary-cap-situation-from-best-to-worst/ 

Edited April 29, 2020 by GASabresIUFAN

[dudacek]

I hunted around yesterday unsuccessfully without finding it, but MIrtle comes through this morning in the Ahtletic with an analysis of each team's cap situation.

https://theathletic.com/1765324/2020/04/29/mirtle-ranking-every-nhl-teams-salary-cap-situation-from-best-to-worst/

"The methodology here is simple: Take a team’s signed players, project what they’ll need to pay the RFAs that will make the lineup, subtract those going on LTIR and you have a solid estimate of what they can spend in unrestricted free agency to fill out their rosters.'

The Sabres have the 3rd most real cap space after Ottawa and Detroit. They have the league's highest (by far) projected RFA spend ($24 Million). And they have the 13th-most projected available space ($10.5 million) to add players after resigning their RFAS.

He doesn't show the methodology behind the projected $24 million, but Yerdon's numbers upthread for Ullmark, Reinhart, Olofsson, Kahun, Montour add up to $24 million as well.

[dudacek]

2 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I wrote back on March 10th in the off-season thread; Reinhart 7 for 52 mill (7.43), Montour 5 for 22.5 (4.5), but I now I think it will be lower, VO 3 for 10 (3.33), Kahun 3 for 10 (3.33) and Ullmark 4 for 12 (3).  Except for Montour, I think these are still pretty good estimates. 

https://theathletic.com/1765324/2020/04/29/mirtle-ranking-every-nhl-teams-salary-cap-situation-from-best-to-worst/ 

Your RFA projections move the Sabres up to 6th or 7th best spot in the list. Basically, it would only take saving $1.5 on the RFAs to push the Sabres up to 7th.

We could qualify the five RFAs for somewhere around $13 million, however, they all have arbitration rights.

[freester]

14 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I hunted around yesterday unsuccessfully without finding it, but MIrtle comes through this morning in the Ahtletic with an analysis of each team's cap situation.

https://theathletic.com/1765324/2020/04/29/mirtle-ranking-every-nhl-teams-salary-cap-situation-from-best-to-worst/

"The methodology here is simple: Take a team’s signed players, project what they’ll need to pay the RFAs that will make the lineup, subtract those going on LTIR and you have a solid estimate of what they can spend in unrestricted free agency to fill out their rosters.'

The Sabres have the 3rd most real cap space after Ottawa and Detroit. They have the league's highest (by far) projected RFA spend ($24 Million). And they have the 13th-most projected available space ($10.5 million) to add players after resigning their RFAS.

He doesn't show the methodology behind the projected $24 million, but Yerdon's numbers upthread for Ullmark, Reinhart, Olofsson, Kahun, Montour add up to $24 million as well.

Mirtle does not take into account the cap penalty the sabres incurred for being over the cap nor the bonuses that Dahlin and Joker have already earned.

Edited April 29, 2020 by freester

[GASabresIUFAN]

I also have some issues with the messy lineup Yerdon created.

1. Skinner isn't playing with Larsson on the 3rd line.  VO worked well with Kahun and MoJo late last year forming an effective Euro line and Skinner seemed to find himself playing with Jack again.  If Jbot doesn't acquire an outside 2C as Yerdon suggests, I'd much rather we put Skinner back with Jack and run with the Euro line as the 2nd line.  Honestly neither of these scenarios is acceptable, but the Euro 2nd line is much better then the crap Yerdon wrote.

2.  While I can see a Larsson/KO 3rd line for defensive purposes, they won't generate much offense, but his 4th line of Thompson Arttu and Lazar is from Mars.  Last I looked Thompson was a RW, Lazar a LW/C and Arttu (also a C/LW) had never set foot in NA.  

Using Yerdon's analysis and cap numbers, won't this lineup make more sense?

Skinner, Jack, Sam

VO, Kahun, MoJo

Arttu Cozens Thompson

Lazar Larsson KO

 

 

[dudacek]

6 minutes ago, freester said:

Mirtle does not take into account the cap penalty the sabres incurred for being over the cap nor the bonuses that Dahlin has already earned.

No, but that doesn't really change the fact the Sabres rank in a clump of teams with between $8 and $12 million in effective cap space in order to improve the roster, putting them somewhere between 7th and 15th in the league, or the fact that they are 3rd in actual space, giving them a ton of flexibility, especially if COVID-19 depresses the market the way we expect it to.

Edited April 29, 2020 by dudacek

[GASabresIUFAN]

10 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Your RFA projections move the Sabres up to 6th or 7th best spot in the list. Basically, it would only take saving $1.5 on the RFAs to push the Sabres up to 7th.

We could qualify the five RFAs for somewhere around $13 million, however, they all have arbitration rights.

Honestly, given the cap mess, if I were Reinhart, VO and Kahun, I'd bet on myself, take a 1 year or 2 year deal for good money and kick the can down the road hoping for a return to normal hockey economics in a year or so. 

[tom webster]

For reference, new article on Athletic that puts Buffalo around 20th worse cap situation. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

17 minutes ago, tom webster said:

For reference, new article on Athletic that puts Buffalo around 20th worse cap situation. 

or 11th best

Edited April 29, 2020 by GASabresIUFAN