Sabres “salary cap space is a mirage” per Yerdon in Athletic

[freester]

In today’s Athletic Joe Yerdon wrote an article discussing Sabres cap situation. It’s not pretty. Unless we unload a big contract like Risto, or do a compliance buyout (unlikely) or trade an RFA due for a big contract we will have very little flexibility to add to our roster. We may not even be able to afford Johann Larson. 

[tom webster]

18 minutes ago, freester said:

In today’s Athletic Joe Yerdon wrote an article discussing Sabres cap situation. It’s not pretty. Unless we unload a big contract like Risto, or do a compliance buyout (unlikely) or trade an RFA due for a big contract we will have very little flexibility to add to our roster. We may not even be able to afford Johann Larson. 

No one paying attention should be surprised, especially if they go with the flat cap. Rumors of one compliance buyout would help.

The good news is that a lot of teams will be in worse shape.

Edited April 28, 2020 by tom webster

[darksabre]

This is basically what I've been saying for a while. The Sabres have a ton of cap but that's because they wont have enough players to even hold training camp. They have 8 players under contract for next year. They have to sign 7 RFAs and fill out the rest of the roster. That cap space is going to disappear fast.

[Eleven]

29 minutes ago, freester said:

In today’s Athletic Joe Yerdon wrote an article discussing Sabres cap situation. It’s not pretty. Unless we unload a big contract like Risto, or do a compliance buyout (unlikely) or trade an RFA due for a big contract we will have very little flexibility to add to our roster. We may not even be able to afford Johann Larson. 

That's what I had thought.  Okposo remains for a while.

[Curt]

I think Buffalo should be able to afford to keep anyone off the current roster that they want to, and should have a couple million left over.  With the cap projected to stay pretty flat, there probably won’t be enough money to go after a significant player without also moving salary out.

When the cap was projected to rise $3M+, it was looking like Buffalo could probably add a good player ($5-6M). So with the cap now staying flat, it’s no surprise.

[nfreeman]

But I thought JB had gotten the Sabres out of cap hell and was now playing 3-dimensional cap chess while his peers were playing checkers?

Again:  anyone here could've served as GM, spent to the cap and produced the crappy results that JB has delivered. 

[Eleven]

11 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

But I thought JB had gotten the Sabres out of cap hell and was now playing 3-dimensional cap chess while his peers were playing checkers?

Please tell me that no one seriously believes this.

[LGR4GM]

28 minutes ago, darksabre said:

This is basically what I've been saying for a while. The Sabres have a ton of cap but that's because they wont have enough players to even hold training camp. They have 8 players under contract for next year. They have to sign 7 RFAs and fill out the rest of the roster. That cap space is going to disappear fast.

You did indeed. 

[thewookie1]

Botts, honestly the only thing I still held onto about you was this and you’ve even totally screwed this up. 

I still don’t understand why we would take a cap penalty for overages. I can pretty easily shift stuff around on CapFriendly and get us under the cap without any LTIR.

[freester]

15 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

But I thought JB had gotten the Sabres out of cap hell and was now playing 3-dimensional cap chess while his peers were playing checkers?

Again:  anyone here could've served as GM, spent to the cap and produced the crappy results that JB has delivered. 

The situation is even worse if the season resumes and Dahlin hits his bonuses.  Signing Reinhart to a bridge deal was another terrible Botteril error. Also the contract that Montour is projected to get is scary for a mediocre defensemen. That trade is also looking very bad given the cap implications. The fact that we are paying a penalty for being over the cap is the ultimate indictment of Botterils incompetence. 
 

 

[dudacek]

Not saying Joe is wrong, but what he’s projecting is a bit of a worst-case scenario, no?

Reinhart $8.7, Montour $4.8 and Larsson at $3.1 all seem significantly on the high side even before COVID-19 crushed the cap. The Sabres have all the leverage necessary to bring Olofsson and Kahun in under the 4.9 and 2.9 they’re listed at here as well.

Its not just the owners who are feeling the cap crunch from the pandemic. There is also less money to go around for the players as well, and that will be shown in lower-dollar contracts for this summer’s free agents.

The Sabres are set on D and likely in goal. They have five UFAs up front and, if they wish, they can plug Asplund, Thompson, Mittelstadt and/or Cozens on very cheap deals into three of those slots, meaning they only have to sign/acquire two outside bodies.

Finally, the cap world is a zero-sum model: what is most relevant is the amount of space you have relative to other teams in the league and the amount of roster spots you need to fill. Whatever the cap ends up, the Sabres ratio of available cap space to roster space remains among the best in the league.

It’s just a matter of a GM using it better than Joe did.

Edited April 28, 2020 by dudacek

[LGR4GM]

I would trade Montour before signing him. I think I prefer Risto over Montour. 

[LGR4GM]

2 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Not saying Joe is wrong, but what he’s projecting is a bit of a worst-case scenario, no?

Reinhart $8.7, Montour $4.8 and Larsson at $3.1 all seem on the high side even before COVID-19 crushed the cap. The Sabres have all the leverage necessary to bring Olofsson and Kahun in under the 4.9 and 2.9 they’re listed at here as well.

Its not just the owners who are feeling the cap crunch from the pandemic. There is also less money to go around for the players as well, and that will be shown in lower-dollar contracts for this summer’s free agents.

The Sabres are set on D and likely in goal. They have five UFAs up front and, if they wish, they can plug Asplund, Thompson, Mittelstadt and/or Cozens on very cheap deals into three of those slots, meaning they only have to sign/acquire two outside bodies.

Finally, the cap world is a zero-sum model: what is most relevant is the amount of space you have relative to other teams in the league and the amount of roster spots you need to fill. Whatever the cap ends up, the Sabres ratio of available cap space to roster space remains among the best in the league.

It’s just a matter of a GM using it better than Joe did.

There's a nightmare scenario for you. Asplund (3rd line at best center with very little NHL experience), Thompson (the injured gazelle who has shown 0 ability to consistently perform at the NHL level), Mitts (a guy they rushed up from college who needs at least another AHL year to grow his game), and Cozens (the new golden boy who honestly has the best chance of the 4 to be useful in the NHL next season). 

[Taro T]

3 hours ago, thewookie1 said:

Botts, honestly the only thing I still held onto about you was this and you’ve even totally screwed this up. 

I still don’t understand why we would take a cap penalty for overages. I can pretty easily shift stuff around on CapFriendly and get us under the cap without any LTIR.

 

3 hours ago, freester said:

The situation is even worse if the season resumes and Dahlin hits his bonuses.  Signing Reinhart to a bridge deal was another terrible Botteril error. Also the contract that Montour is projected to get is scary for a mediocre defensemen. That trade is also looking very bad given the cap implications. The fact that we are paying a penalty for being over the cap is the ultimate indictment of Botterils incompetence. 
 

 

Dahlin has at least $637,500 in earned bonuses this year.  He's cleared 25 assists, 40 points, 0.49 ppg.  That money all is off the '20-'21 cap.  (Assuming no funky prorations that get worked out this off-season.)

The team has been over the cap all season (legally because of LTIR).  Those bonuses won't come out of this year's player pool.

[Edit: He'll be in the top 4 for D ice time as well on the Sabres, so he will max out the "type A" bonuses at $850k.]

Edited April 29, 2020 by Taro T

[LGR4GM]

Just now, Taro T said:

 

Dahlin has at least $637,500 in earned bonuses this year.  He's cleared 25 assists, 40 points, 0.49 ppg.  That money all is off the '20-'21 cap.  (Assuming no funky perforations that get worked out this off-season.)

Good thing we added Frolic... and people wonder why Jbott should be fired. 

[mjd1001]

I don't see a major cap problem here like some do...it all depends on how you fill the holes you have.

It is up to you right now whether you want to pay/overpay Sam, he is not on the books for next year yet.

Jacks contract is fine.  Okposo and Skinner are overpayed for what they looked like this year....but not much more than what most other teams have in bad contracts (almost everyone has a few).

Montour? like Sam above...don't 'calculate' an estimate for him against the cap until you work something out...and if you don't like what he is asking..then don't sign him.

This team might be a disaster against the cap if a bunch of bad decisions are made in the offseason...but right now they have more flexibility to stay out of trouble (or get back into it) than most teams.

[#freejame]

If Covid has taught me one thing it’s that I don’t need the Sabres. If Larsson gets $3.1 I’ll stop being a fan. 

Edited April 28, 2020 by #freejame
All of those contracts are high but that’s crazy talk.

[dudacek]

1 minute ago, LGR4GM said:

There's a nightmare scenario for you. Asplund (3rd line at best center with very little NHL experience), Thompson (the injured gazelle who has shown 0 ability to consistently perform at the NHL level), Mitts (a guy they rushed up from college who needs at least another AHL year to grow his game), and Cozens (the new golden boy who honestly has the best chance of the 4 to be useful in the NHL next season). 

You’re missing the point in this context: substituting three of those players for Simmonds Frolik and Sobotka gives you the cap space to upgrade Vesey and Girgensons, without a huge drop-off at the bottom of the roster.

[Taro T]

1 minute ago, mjd1001 said:

I don't see a major cap problem here like some do...it all depends on how you fill the holes you have.

It is up to you right now whether you want to pay/overpay Sam, he is not on the books for next year yet.

Jacks contract is fine.  Okposo and Skinner are overpayed for what they looked like this year....but not much more than what most other teams have in bad contracts (almost everyone has a few).

Montour? like Sam above...don't 'calculate' an estimate for him against the cap until you work something out...and if you don't like what he is asking..then don't sign him.

This team might be a disaster against the cap if a bunch of bad decisions are made in the offseason...but right now they have more flexibility to stay out of trouble (or get back into it) than most teams.

As long as the cap stays close to this year's ($80MM or more), the team will still be able to trade a D for a 2C and upgrade the goaltending.  There may not be room for more than that, but that in itself should be enough.

[freester]

3 minutes ago, Taro T said:

As long as the cap stays close to this year's ($80MM or more), the team will still be able to trade a D for a 2C and upgrade the goaltending.  There may not be room for more than that, but that in itself should be enough.

That’s not what the facts say. Of course if they can trade Risto for a 2C on an entry level contract than you are correct, otherwise not possible.

[Taro T]

4 minutes ago, freester said:

That’s not what the facts say. Of course if they can trade Risto for a 2C on an entry level contract than you are correct, otherwise not possible.

Facts?  You might want to talk to @Eleven about facts. ?

Yerdon takes a worst case look at pretty much all the RFA's and probably Dahlin as well (not sure if he gives Dahlin the $800k he seems to have earned or the $3MM he has a shot a earning with some luck if the season restarts) to set the stage for his article.  Do we really expect Reinhart to get almost $9MM/year?

Unless the cap shrinks a lot, the Sabres will be OK.  Provided they don't do foolish things like bringing Simmonds back.  But people will be upset because Thompson is pencilled into the lineup.

[freester]

1 minute ago, Taro T said:

Facts?  You might want to talk to @Eleven about facts. ?

Yerdon takes a worst case look at pretty much all the RFA's and probably Dahlin as well (not sure if he gives Dahlin the $800k he seems to have earned or the $3MM he has a shot a earning with some luck if the season restarts) to set the stage for his article.  Do we really expect Reinhart to get almost $9MM/year?

Unless the cap shrinks a lot, the Sabres will be OK.  Provided they don't do foolish things like bringing Simmonds back.  But people will be upset because Thompson is pencilled into the lineup.

Did you read the article? Yeldon uses figures from a website Evolve Hockey whose sole purpose is to project contracts and cap issues. If Dahlin ends up top 10 in assists he gets an additional 2 million bonus which reduces our cap as a penalty. He’s assuming the cap remains constant for the article.
Thompson has to be in lineup as he can’t go to Rochester without passing waivers. 

[PalmTreeMafia]

Unreal. Threads like these are why I feel completely indifferent to the NHL returning from COVID-19. The Sabres are wasting almost $10 million per year alone on the Skinner and Okposo contracts.

[tom webster]

34 minutes ago, freester said:

Did you read the article? Yeldon uses figures from a website Evolve Hockey whose sole purpose is to project contracts and cap issues. If Dahlin ends up top 10 in assists he gets an additional 2 million bonus which reduces our cap as a penalty. He’s assuming the cap remains constant for the article.
Thompson has to be in lineup as he can’t go to Rochester without passing waivers. 

As Taro previously explained, those were worst case scenarios and you could make a case that Sam, VO, and  Montour are all getting at least a million less.

1st) the whole league will be in salary cap he’ll. You are only worth what someone will pay you and if no  can pay you, your options are limited.

2nd) They assume an 8 year contract for Sam

While there is not as much flexibility as dome thought, it’s nowhere near insurmountable 

[Taro T]

39 minutes ago, freester said:

Did you read the article? Yeldon uses figures from a website Evolve Hockey whose sole purpose is to project contracts and cap issues. If Dahlin ends up top 10 in assists he gets an additional 2 million bonus which reduces our cap as a penalty. He’s assuming the cap remains constant for the article.
Thompson has to be in lineup as he can’t go to Rochester without passing waivers. 

Yes, but it appears you didn't.  Dahlin is currently OUT of the top 10 in assists for D-men.  That is where the person that has 2 fewer assists than the TWO guys tied for 9th (you know #'s 9 & 10) are.  He DOESN'T get a $2MM+ bonus for 11th.  (Eichel can tell him all about it from personal experience.)

If they don't play anymore games, he doesn't get that bonus.  If he doesn't catch at least 1 guy ahead of him he doesn't get that bonus.  Considering we don't know whether there will be anymore regular season games for this season, it would seem the safer assumption to make would be that Dahlin won't qualify for the bonus.