Per Dreger Sabres 2020 First Pick Maybe Available

[LGR4GM]

2 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

While I’d be ok if we traded pick 8 or 9 for Cirelli, I’m not sure there is anyone else I’d do that for.  

If he draft 6 or 7 I’d prefer to keep the pick because I like Rossi and think he’ll still be there at that time.

Also please stop floating this “we are bad a drafting” spin.  TM was bad at drafting.  DR was mediocre at drafting but at least his top tier guys are NHL players like McCabe, Risto, Zadorov, Girgensons etc.

JB is still an unknown.  UPL is a consensus top goaltending prospect.  Portillo was named a 1st team USHL all-star, Cozens an MVP.  Once Pekar, Samuelsson, Laaksonen, Davidsson, Cozens etc hit the pros we’ll have a much better idea if Jbot has succeeded or failed in that department.  Just because you unhappy that he drafted Johnson over a forward on your list doesn’t make him “bad at drafting”.

Most of our problems with depth seems to me at least to come from so few late surprises and so many more 2-3 rd failures.  Back 2005 much of that team was built on successful 2nd/3rd rd picks like Pommers and Roy, Tallinder and Max, coupled late round successes like Miller, Campbell, Gaustad, and Kotalik.

VO and Ullmark are the only late rd successes and I think McCabe, a DR pick, is the only Sabres 2nd rd pick on the roster.

TB’s Point and Cirelli are 3rd picks I believe. 

I've explained myself multiple times. You keep ignoring that and trying to make it this argument. It's not. 

1 hour ago, Eleven said:

A YOUNG proven player?  Absolutely. I would make this trade most years.  

I'm not sure that Buffalo misses on its first-rounders significantly more often than any other team.    

Sabres'  first-rounders since 2010 that were not in the top five overall:  Cozens, Mittelstadt, Nylander, Ristolainen, Grigorenko, Girgensons, Armia, Pysyk.  All of them are either in the league (Grigorenko coming back) or still a prospect.

Bruins' first-rounders in the same time period, also no top-five overall:  Beecher, Vaakainen, McAvoy, Frederic, Zboril, DeBrusk, Senyshyn, Pastrnak, M. Subban,  Hamilton.  I don't see this as appreciably better. Pastrnak was an extraordinary find, but some of these guys never made and never will make it in the NHL.

The level of talent from 1 to other is the issue. 

[Eleven]

4 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

The level of talent from 1 to other is the issue. 

If we could assign quantitative values to each player, I think those drafts would average out pretty close to one another.  Boston has the lone home run.  Buffalo reaches base every time, though.

Edited April 25, 2020 by Eleven

[LGR4GM]

Just now, Eleven said:

If we could assign quantitative values to each player, I think those drafts would average out pretty close to one another.

I disagree. 

And for the record, the senyshyn pick was garbage and should have been Barzal. I said as much at the time. 

[Eleven]

Just now, LGR4GM said:

And for the record, the senyshyn pick was garbage and should have been Barzal. I said as much at the time. 

So that means it didn't happen?  That's my point:  Other teams make as many mistakes as the Sabres do after the first five picks.

[LGR4GM]

1 minute ago, Eleven said:

So that means it didn't happen?  That's my point:  Other teams make as many mistakes as the Sabres do after the first five picks.

Again, I disagree. Buffalo is in the bottom 3rd in the league at being good at drafting. Go look at carolina and philly. 

[LGR4GM]

Further we're not adjusting for when the pick was made. Buffalo takes Nylander but Boston takes McAvoy 10 picks later. That also factors in. 

[Eleven]

Just for kicks, Tampa, the other power in the division, since 2010, no top-5:  N. Foote, C. Foote, DeAngelo, KoekKoek, Vasilevsky, Nametsnikov, Connolly.  Not that impressive.

 

[Eleven]

7 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Again, I disagree. Buffalo is in the bottom 3rd in the league at being good at drafting. Go look at carolina and philly. 

Carolina?!  Really?  Suzuki, Necas, Bean, Gauthier, H. Fleury, Murphy, Skinner.  It's like you're making my point for me.

Philly:  York, Farabee, Frost, Rubtsov, Provorov, Kocecny, Sanheim, Morin, Laughton, Couturier.  Better than Carolina, sure, but not exactly overwhelming.

 

Instead of me coming up with countless examples, why don't you demonstrate how "Buffalo is in the bottom 3rd in the league at being good at drafting," considering the context of first-round picks that are not in the top five overall.  Again, 100% of Buffalo's picks fitting the description are either in the NHL or still are prospects.

Edited April 25, 2020 by Eleven

[LGR4GM]

It's not about just being in the nhl though. That's what I'm also getting at.

It's also not just about the first round. 

[Eleven]

10 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

It's not about just being in the nhl though. That's what I'm also getting at.

It's also not just about the first round. 

This conversation is just about the first round.  We're talking about trading a first round pick for a current NHL player and the reasons why it's a good idea.  Your position was that some of us only think it's a good idea because we have no confidence in the Sabres' drafts in the first round. 

If you want to get into later rounds, I might agree that the Sabres are below par.  In the first round, though, they're not.  They might even be above par, but that's not a bridge I want to cross right now.

Edited April 25, 2020 by Eleven

[Kruppstahl]

3 hours ago, inkman said:

Aren't the Sabres one of the "cash strapped" teams now?  Based on everything Pegula.  

Yes.

[MakeSabresGrr8Again]

17 hours ago, Neo said:

Tyler Johnson ....  I am not a CapFriendly / Talent guru.   However, the contract looks a little too good at $5 million for four more years.

He was just drafted by the TB Buccaneers.

[GASabresIUFAN]

Tyler Johnson will be 30 in July.  He also has a NTC.  Even if he'd waive the clause to come to Buffalo, TB would be lucky to get a 2nd rd pick for him given his age, contract size and decreasing production as his PT decreased.  

I'd have said before I'd like to acquire him, but not for our 1st rd pick.

[Neo]

19 minutes ago, MakeSabresGrr8Again said:

He was just drafted by the TB Buccaneers.

To 0.ay with my favorites, Gronk and Brady.

[GASabresIUFAN]

20 minutes ago, MakeSabresGrr8Again said:

He was just drafted by the TB Buccaneers.

I don't think a WR will help the Sabres.  The Bills probably don't need him either.

Edited April 25, 2020 by GASabresIUFAN

[Neo]

2 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I don't think a WR will help the Sabres.  The Bills probably don't need him either.

He will be on a rookie contract!

[Thorner]

5 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

You're missing the forest through the trees. You devalue those picks because Buffalo is and remains bad at drafting. Grigs and Girgs actually are bad examples for this. Nylander should have been Sergachev. You want to trade the pick because you don't have faith in buffalo getting it right, not because the talent you get there isn't good enough. 

 

2 hours ago, Eleven said:

A YOUNG proven player?  Absolutely. I would make this trade most years.  

I'm not sure that Buffalo misses on its first-rounders significantly more often than any other team.    

Sabres'  first-rounders since 2010 that were not in the top five overall:  Cozens, Mittelstadt, Nylander, Ristolainen, Grigorenko, Girgensons, Armia, Pysyk.  All of them are either in the league (Grigorenko coming back) or still a prospect.

Bruins' first-rounders in the same time period, also no top-five overall:  Beecher, Vaakainen, McAvoy, Frederic, Zboril, DeBrusk, Senyshyn, Pastrnak, M. Subban,  Hamilton.  I don't see this as appreciably better. Pastrnak was an extraordinary find, but some of these guys never made and never will make it in the NHL.

Agree with Eleven here. There’s always a guy worthy of the selection that becomes clear after hindsight, and sometimes teams are able to sniff out that guy accurately the first time, but the odds are against it no matter the team. 

If we’re talking young, proven commodity, *of course* you make the trade. 

It’s not a move of desperation - if we bring in a long term, proven addition at 2C, it increases the likelihood of our fringe prospects finding a place on this team when the roles they are being asked to grow into are more achievable.

Edited April 25, 2020 by Thorny

[MakeSabresGrr8Again]

24 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I don't think a WR will help the Sabres.  The Bills probably don't need him either.

Wonder if he has a good catching glove.....

 

[Broken Ankles]

This is all mental m@sturbation.  We will select in the top three.  I’ll say second overall.  So there is no use debating if the pick will be traded. 

[bob_sauve28]

If the pick isn’t that high, maybe we trade for an above average goalie 

[Curt]

6 hours ago, Eleven said:

If we could assign quantitative values to each player, I think those drafts would average out pretty close to one another.  Boston has the lone home run.  Buffalo reaches base every time, though.

I disagree.  It could be reasonably argued that all of McAvoy, DeBrusk, Pastrnak, and Hamilton are better than any of Cozens, Mittelstadt, Nylander, Ristolainen, Grigorenko, Girgensons, Armia, Pysyk.

Even if they average out pretty close because of a couple busts.  Top-6/top pair guys are A LOT harder to find than bottom 6/bottom pair guys.  Buffalo has enough of one of those and not enough of the other.

Edited April 26, 2020 by Curt

[Eleven]

21 minutes ago, Curt said:

I disagree.  It could be reasonably argued that all of McAvoy, DeBrusk, Pastrnak, and Hamilton are better than any of Cozens, Mittelstadt, Nylander, Ristolainen, Grigorenko, Girgensons, Armia, Pysyk.

Even if they average out pretty close because of a couple busts.  Top-6/top pair guys are A LOT harder to find than bottom 6/bottom pair guys.  Buffalo has enough of one of those and not enough of the other.

Take out Debrusk and you're right on your first assertion, but still, look at all the no-shows in that Bruin situation.  That's the part where you're wrong.  A LOT of misses. 

Again, another reason to trade a non-top-five pick for a proven young NHLer.

And, since Liger put me through the exercise, how about looking at the other three teams that I described?

[Curt]

34 minutes ago, Eleven said:

Take out Debrusk and you're right on your first assertion, but still, look at all the no-shows in that Bruin situation.  That's the part where you're wrong.  A LOT of misses. 

Again, another reason to trade a non-top-five pick for a proven young NHLer.

And, since Liger put me through the exercise, how about looking at the other three teams that I described?

I do understand you.  I just think it’s more important to get the high end talent than to have an abundance of bottom of the roster talent.  With hits like Mittelstadt, Nylander, Grigorenko, Girgensons, Armia, who needs misses?

[inkman]

10 hours ago, Curt said:

No.  They have been willing to consistently spend to the cap.  They will have some cap space to add salary/talent next season.

Its possible that through some financial misfortune, that could all change now, but I don’t think it’s particularly likely.

Dude, you are talking about the past. These mofos acting broke.  

[Curt]

9 minutes ago, inkman said:

Dude, you are talking about the past. These mofos acting broke.  

Lol, we’ll see I guess.  Can’t be certain either way just yet.