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Posted

From the article:

Oil and gas companies in the United States are hurtling toward bankruptcy at a pace not seen in years, driven under by a global price war and a pandemic that has slashed demand. And in the wake of this economic carnage is a potential environmental disaster — unprofitable wells that will be abandoned or left untended, even as they continue leaking planet-warming pollutants, and a costly bill for taxpayers to clean it all up.

...

The industry’s decline may be just beginning. Almost 250 oil and gas companies could file for bankruptcy protection by the end of next year, more than the previous five years combined, according to Rystad Energy, an analytics company. Rystad analysts now expect oil demand will begin falling permanently by decade’s end as renewable energy costs decline, energy efficiency improves, and efforts to fight climate change diminish an industry that has spent the past decade drilling thousands of wells, transforming the United States into the biggest oil producer in the world.

Posted
8 minutes ago, That Aud Smell said:

This is a pretty remarkable overview of how the oil & gas business in the U.S., including fracking, may be in the process of a substantial, if not total, collapse.

https://nyti.ms/2WcWmXy

Makes sense on the sabres front.  The Bills are profitable every year, and probably spun even more profit in year 1 under beane when they unloaded dead money since it was already paid out on previous year P&Ls.  The Sabres need to be leaner since, oil money is likely not coming in to bail out a non-profitable business - the revenue coming in needs to pay everyone.  

I don't think there's a question of their wealth though.  We'll never know for sure, but no wealth management portfolio is going to be supremely tied to oil (be it his businesses or futures).  While he may be a principal owner of fracking wells, he's probably not 100% owner of anything oil related since traditionally its pretty easy to find independent investors for those types of businesses.  

There's likely money tied to hedge funds etc. that the plan is traditionally never to touch, and to just pull bits out here and there when needed.  Put urself on the books with a salary for each team, do the same with your businesses - that way whatever you have left is nest-egged for stadium improvements and re-investment.  

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Posted
20 minutes ago, That Aud Smell said:

This is a pretty remarkable overview of how the oil & gas business in the U.S., including fracking, may be in the process of a substantial, if not total, collapse.

https://nyti.ms/2WcWmXy

Interesting, but it will not affect the Pegula's fortune, no?  If I recall correctly, Pegula made his vast fortune when he sold his company to one of the huge energy (sorry forget which one) conglomerates.  He is out of the business, but it made him very wealthy.

Posted
Just now, New Scotland (NS) said:

Interesting, but it will not affect the Pegula's fortune, no?  If I recall correctly, Pegula made his vast fortune when he sold his company to one of the huge energy (sorry forget which one) conglomerates.  He is out of the business, but it made him very wealthy.

He's not out of the business.

JKLM Energy's predecessor company is East Resources Inc., which was formed in 1983 in Pittsburgh, PA. For 27 years, East Resources Inc. successfully operated in shallow and deep oil and gas formations in PA, WV and NY until 2010, when Royal Dutch Shell plc acquired East’s PA and NY assets. East Resources Inc. continued to operate in Ohio and West Virginia for approximately 3 years before those assets were sold to American Energy Partners LP. Soon after the sale of those assets, a core group of experienced staff reassembled to form JKLM Energy.

http://www.jklmenergy.com/who-we-are/history

Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, New Scotland (NS) said:

Interesting, but it will not affect the Pegula's fortune, no?  If I recall correctly, Pegula made his vast fortune when he sold his company to one of the huge energy (sorry forget which one) conglomerates.  He is out of the business, but it made him very wealthy.

I'm sure he still owns land - and is a partner in some new companies that are likely struggling.  But i also think he didn't like, double down and re-invest in them when the business tanked.  They likely did what all these companies did, paid out bonuses and immediately moved money elsewhere to a more stable/secure spot in the market while anticipating a bankruptcy, and forfeiture of land holdings belonging to those companies. 

Edited by Drag0nDan
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Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, That Aud Smell said:

He's not out of the business.

JKLM Energy's predecessor company is East Resources Inc., which was formed in 1983 in Pittsburgh, PA. For 27 years, East Resources Inc. successfully operated in shallow and deep oil and gas formations in PA, WV and NY until 2010, when Royal Dutch Shell plc acquired East’s PA and NY assets. East Resources Inc. continued to operate in Ohio and West Virginia for approximately 3 years before those assets were sold to American Energy Partners LP. Soon after the sale of those assets, a core group of experienced staff reassembled to form JKLM Energy.

http://www.jklmenergy.com/who-we-are/history

I stand corrected.  He is largely out of the business and his small holdings will not really impact his status as a billionaire, even if the company ultimately fails in these tough economic times.  Sorry for being old and jaded, but I would be more concerned about the ordinary folks working at his company than for Pegula.

Edited by New Scotland (NS)
I don't type very goodly ...
Posted
1 hour ago, New Scotland (NS) said:

I stand corrected.  He is largely out of the business and his small holdings will not really impact his status as a billionaire, even if the company ultimately fails in these tough economic times.  Sorry for being old and jaded, but I would be more concerned about the ordinary folks working at his company than for Pegula.

Yeah - the website isn't particularly clear.  But my guess is they lease his land and hes a consultant or something.

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Posted
7 hours ago, That Aud Smell said:

He's not out of the business.

JKLM Energy's predecessor company is East Resources Inc., which was formed in 1983 in Pittsburgh, PA. For 27 years, East Resources Inc. successfully operated in shallow and deep oil and gas formations in PA, WV and NY until 2010, when Royal Dutch Shell plc acquired East’s PA and NY assets. East Resources Inc. continued to operate in Ohio and West Virginia for approximately 3 years before those assets were sold to American Energy Partners LP. Soon after the sale of those assets, a core group of experienced staff reassembled to form JKLM Energy.

http://www.jklmenergy.com/who-we-are/history

JKLM also paid a fairly hefty sum (posted it in a thread here ~ 1 month ago, don't feel like redigging that info up & the search function is less than ideal here, sorry) to PA last year for it's fracking tax on their wells on 120k acres over the Marcellus shale.  

Seems they aren't major players, but it also seems to be well more than just a hobby.

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Posted
20 hours ago, New Scotland (NS) said:

I stand corrected.  He is largely out of the business and his small holdings will not really impact his status as a billionaire, even if the company ultimately fails in these tough economic times.  Sorry for being old and jaded, but I would be more concerned about the ordinary folks working at his company than for Pegula.

My point is whether and how the lack of cash flow from the wells could affect how the Sabres are managed.

Posted
20 hours ago, Drag0nDan said:

The Sabres need to be leaner since, oil money is likely not coming in to bail out a non-profitable business - the revenue coming in needs to pay everyone.  

This is all helpful insight, @Drag0nDan - and this especially so.

Posted
50 minutes ago, That Aud Smell said:

This is all helpful insight, @Drag0nDan - and this especially so.

Any other business would be largely the same.  They overspent on a lot to try and fix the team be it, 2 compliance buyouts + the hodgson buyout.  Moulson contract.  Bogo throw-in on the trade.  Okposo deal. Multiple coach/GM firing buyouts.  

Trading o'reilly was definitely a cash issue.  They could've probably waited to trade him and got more - but 7.5 mill cash for a guy to not play, when you're most likely forced to bring back salary in return just is a huge dent in the bottom line.  If they were losing 10s of millions as it sounds like, that would have been a tough pill to swallow even before oil prices tanked.  

I think vegas and carolina show that having the most scouts doesn't necessarily mean you have the best scouting.  Between the salaries of the people they let go, and travel budgets they're looking at saving several million dollars, and can probably ice a team as good a team as they have had the last couple of years.  Plus a lot of that severance can just hit the 2020 P&L - and they can look to create a profitable healthy organization in 2021 moving forward.  They're also better prepared for a lost season, or a season without fans.  

I'm not particularly sold on Adams, but i think they have faith in Krueger.  Maybe fewer cooks in the kitchen will result in a better product.

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Posted
14 hours ago, Theana74 said:

They're very smart people, so whatever happens they got it figured out

/ Sarcasm 

1 hour ago, That Aud Smell said:

My point is whether and how the lack of cash flow from the wells could affect how the Sabres are managed.

They don't have a cash flow. That is the problem.

Posted
13 minutes ago, darksabre said:

The Sabres don't really have cap space anyway

$34 million. The league average is $8 million.

I know you're going to say "yeah, but Reinhart, Olofsson, Ullmark..." Exaggerating for effect, but why do we have to sign these guys for anything above their qualifying offers? Who else is going to be offering them big dollars?

It's a new world out there. While other teams are struggling to unload contracts and sign building block players, we have options.

Posted
9 minutes ago, dudacek said:

$34 million. The league average is $8 million.

I know you're going to say "yeah, but Reinhart, Olofsson, Ullmark..." Exaggerating for effect, but why do we have to sign these guys for anything above their qualifying offers? Who else is going to be offering them big dollars?

It's a new world out there. While other teams are struggling to unload contracts and sign building block players, we have options.

It's not just the RFAs. They have to fill out a full roster. That includes the bottom six guys. That cap space is going to disappear fast, especially with Okposo and Hutton taking up 8.75 mil.

Posted
46 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

EF is Elliott Friedman 

Of course they are. Players are likely salivation. Big contracts are done for the time being. Players will cash in however they can. Desperate times calls for desperate measures I guess. 

Posted
5 minutes ago, dudacek said:

$34 million. The league average is $8 million.

I know you're going to say "yeah, but Reinhart, Olofsson, Ullmark..." Exaggerating for effect, but why do we have to sign these guys for anything above their qualifying offers? Who else is going to be offering them big dollars?

It's a new world out there. While other teams are struggling to unload contracts and sign building block players, we have options.

I agree with the caveat that GMs also want to treat their key players fairly.  Arbitration rights and the ability to "go home" give certain guys more leverage then others, but in general contracts $ and term are going to be much smaller for both RFAs and UFAs this off-season.

Key RFAs Q-offers according to capfriendly.com

Kahun - $874,125  (1.05 * base of 832,500), but has Arbitration rights

Lazar - 735,000 (1.05 * 700K), but has Arbitration rights

Mittelstadt - $874,125  (1.05 * base of 832,500)

Montour - $3,525,000 (100% of last year), but has Arbitration rights

Olofsson - $735,000 (1.05 * base of 700K), but has Arbitration rights

Reinhart - $3,750,000, but has Arbitration rights

Thompson - $874,125

Ullmark - $1,325,000, but has Arbitration rights

As you can see most of our guys have arbitration rights.  It could be a very long summer and fall for our rookie GM.

 

 

Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, darksabre said:

It's not just the RFAs. They have to fill out a full roster. That includes the bottom six guys. That cap space is going to disappear fast, especially with Okposo and Hutton taking up 8.75 mil.

You're not wrong, but you're missing the big picture. Everybody has to fill out their roster

The Sabres have nearly $3 million to spend per roster spot. The league average is under $2 million.

Some teams (Leafs Barrie, Bolts Cirelli, Blues Pietrangelo, Canucks Markstrom, Coyotes Hall to name a few) literally do not have the space to re-sign a key piece without sacrificing another key piece or pieces, or pay a premium to dump bad contracts.

Few teams have the space to sign free agents or take on bad contracts. Those that do will be looking at the best buyer's market for player acquisition in recent memory.

Edited by dudacek
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