Speculation: Small Market NHL Teams Could Fold, Sabres are one of them

[shrader]

5 hours ago, spndnchz said:

Hey NY2. How’s that tin foil hat coming along?

Won’t somebody please think of the children players!?

[Weave]

7 minutes ago, Let's Go B-Lo said:

I know, right?  I sort of get the appeal of that sort of racing.  It was clearly dangerous, teams were not the polished corporate machines they are now and it felt like half the guys out there pulled the cars out of their barn the day before.  You were waiting for stuff to fall off or a huge wreck or both.  It looked and felt like it was lot more by the seat of your pants than what we have today.  I also liked that the cars were significantly different from one another in body shape.  

I'm sure there are many people who are way more educated on the subject than me but it seems to me that when they went to the "Car of Tomorrow" thing and then ditched the funky little tracks like North Wilkesboro in favor of a million 1.5 mile ovals that are essentially all the same they kind of wrecked the product.  

I'll go back even further.  The sport stopped being the same when they stopped mandating the use of stock sheet metal. 

[Stoner]

1 hour ago, shrader said:

Won’t somebody please think of the children players!?

Oh. Hmmmm. I think I get it now. So you were right? Where the hell is @New Scotland (NS)? He's usually all over this kind of thing.

[mjd1001]

9 hours ago, Randall Flagg said:

Same.

i would lose a disturbingly large chunk of me if the bills or Sabres no longer existed 

I'm actually the opposite.  I am getting by better than I thought.

Would I like them back? Sure. Are a lot of other things gone like movies and dining out and everything else, sure.  But I don't wake up or live my day to day live missing watching sports all that much.  

[#freejame]

1 minute ago, mjd1001 said:

I'm actually the opposite.  I am getting by better than I thought.

Would I like them back? Sure. Are a lot of other things gone like movies and dining out and everything else, sure.  But I don't wake up or live my day to day live missing watching sports all that much.  

It’s been so long since I’ve been invested in the Sabres during a new year that I don’t feel like I’m missing anything at all. This past Bills season was the first I’ve enjoyed in sometime, but I’m fine without football as well. I miss baseball a lot, but a lot of that has to do with a really great fantasy league I’ve been apart of almost a decade. I’m most upset that the baseball team I coach had its season cancelled. 

[Weave]

Just now, #freejame said:

It’s been so long since I’ve been invested in the Sabres during a new year that I don’t feel like I’m missing anything at all.

 

This.  I've missed hockey for so long that I don't remember what I miss anymore.  What you guys are experiencing now?  Pffft.... The Tank did that to me.  This is nothing.

[darksabre]

4 hours ago, Let's Go B-Lo said:

I know, right?  I sort of get the appeal of that sort of racing.  It was clearly dangerous, teams were not the polished corporate machines they are now and it felt like half the guys out there pulled the cars out of their barn the day before.  You were waiting for stuff to fall off or a huge wreck or both.  It looked and felt like it was lot more by the seat of your pants than what we have today.  I also liked that the cars were significantly different from one another in body shape.  

I'm sure there are many people who are way more educated on the subject than me but it seems to me that when they went to the "Car of Tomorrow" thing and then ditched the funky little tracks like North Wilkesboro in favor of a million 1.5 mile ovals that are essentially all the same they kind of wrecked the product.  

I've always been a fan of the classic oval track. I love the local "speedways" and the grit and grime that comes with them. Dirt tracks are glorious. NASCAR used to be cool precisely because it was deliberately unrefined compared to Indy and F1. Now it's too homogenized. I stopped watching around when Mark Martin retired. They could bring me back if they wanted to. But they don't.

[apuszczalowski]

I don't see it happening, no teams will outright Fold, they will be relocated if anything.

The Sabres won't be one of them unless the Pegulas somehow are bankrupt and must sell

 

Most sports teams may take a hit in their valuations of overall value, but I can't see any league folding franchises and contracting teams

 

[mjd1001]

11 hours ago, #freejame said:

It’s been so long since I’ve been invested in the Sabres during a new year that I don’t feel like I’m missing anything at all. This past Bills season was the first I’ve enjoyed in sometime, but I’m fine without football as well. I miss baseball a lot, but a lot of that has to do with a really great fantasy league I’ve been apart of almost a decade. I’m most upset that the baseball team I coach had its season cancelled. 

I thought about after reading your reply.

I really don't miss the actual games  that much....The Sabres/NHL, the NFL, baseball, etc. I miss them a LITTLE, but not a lot.

What I do miss is the discussion about them, thinking about the matchups, pondering how an offseason move will translate to the stats and win-loss record in the upcoming season.  The actual process of 'watching' the 7:00pm hockey game or 1pm football game I don't miss.

Why?  Because for the most part in watching a game, 98% of what I'm going to see, I have already seen something very similar.  

I'm not a regular fantasy football or baseball player, but as time goes on and I have seen more and more games i my life...very little I see in a a game is new.  The only thing that really changes are the names involved and the results (and coaching trends) so I tend to follow sports now more like a fantasy player (keep me updated on scores and stats, with an occasional highlight) so I don't have to sit through 3 hours of a game where nothing exciting happens in 2.5 of those 3 hours.

[Theana745]

9 hours ago, apuszczalowski said:

I don't see it happening, no teams will outright Fold, they will be relocated if anything.

The Sabres won't be one of them unless the Pegulas somehow are bankrupt and must sell

 

Most sports teams may take a hit in their valuations of overall value, but I can't see any league folding franchises and contracting teams

 

Again the man in the video states that it is highly depends upon how fans rally around the teams post COVID, even if the product isn't as good as it could be.  Hopefully people recognize that not supporting their sports team could potentially mean there's no more hockey in the "RED" locations. Remember the cap is NOT changing

[LGR4GM]

13 hours ago, Weave said:

 

This.  I've missed hockey for so long that I don't remember what I miss anymore.  What you guys are experiencing now?  Pffft.... The Tank did that to me.  This is nothing.

Yes. I started to watch more other games because the Sabres play boring hockey. 

[Kruppstahl]

This jibes with the notion, being presented here and there, that the Sabres have been operating under a self-imposed limit on spending for quite some time now.  

Will they go out of business?  Seems unlikely.

We are headed into the worst depression--not recession--this county has seen since the crash in 1929.  It has hardly even begun.

How that is going to impact things like Sabres attendance figures remains to be seen.

 

 

 

[Kruppstahl]

20 hours ago, E4 ... Ke2 said:

In the OP: the Sabres operated at an estimated $2M profit?  Wow.  I figured they operated at a large net loss.

Percentage revenue from the gate: At the start of The Big Lockout, estimates were that the league was that gate receipts were 50% of gross revenue.  The league took the long view of decreasing that percentage by proving it could draw with OLN and giving a sweetheart deal to NBC.  They hoped that it would lead to that mystic 4 word incantation, "American Network Television Contract" (not "Om Mane Padme Hum").  Unlike the 1980's deal with SportsChannel America, it worked this time.

According to several media sources, our own Larry Quinn pushed through a lot of changes in the marketing, including the Winter Classic, that just kept hitting gold. Much of what the NHL does well now came out of his head.

The fact remains that NHL hockey is very much a regional, niche sport, with very little national following in the USA.

Gary Bettman has tried to pretend otherwise for half my life, to no avail.

Buffalo still tops TV rating figures for NBC sports network games, which tells you all you need to know.  No way a tiny little community like Buffalo should be anywhere close to a big TV market for anything.  The math just doesn't support it.

 

 

 

 

[Stoner]

4 hours ago, Theana745 said:

Again the man in the video states that it is highly depends upon how fans rally around the teams post COVID, even if the product isn't as good as it could be.  Hopefully people recognize that not supporting their sports team could potentially mean there's no more hockey in the "RED" locations. Remember the cap is NOT changing

Hear here! (Just covering my bases.) May the people find the wisdom and strength and the resolve to sacrifice what they have to support these fine, brave, young men and women and our heroic owners.

Edited April 18, 2020 by PASabreFan
I was thinking of the Sabres, my apologies

[Marvin]

On 4/17/2020 at 10:21 AM, Theana745 said:

Hi everyone,

 

Came across an interesting piece of analysis the other day. Obviously, this is not scientific (and for the most part a lay opinion) but an interesting conversation here. Apparently, there are several small market teams that are operating at a loss or little profit. For example, Florida is operating at -21 million dollar loss. Interestingly, Buffalo is operating at a worrisome 2 million dollar profit. The argument is essentially that if there's no alterations in the salary cap, in conjunction with lack of overall interest upon COVID return,  teams including the Sabres could ultimately see their demise. What are your thoughts on this? Do you think this is overblown or something that could be a reality?

 

 

He has a couple of other videos referring to this, which I recommend.

One option he did not mention would be an abbreviated season for 2020-1 with everyone's salary being pared for the lost revenue from 2019-20 and then prorated for the abbreviated season.  For example, Eichel's $10M first would be adjusted to $8M due to the revenue loss and then to $6M for a 60 game season.  Then the salaries start adjusting back to normal.

This would require a partial reworking of the CBA and probably a couple years' extension and an ownership give-back like the 2022 Olympics.

[That Aud Smell]

On 4/17/2020 at 11:26 AM, Eleven said:

Buffalo is not a small market when it comes to hockey (just two days ago, Pergament in TBN noted that Buffalo led the US in ratings for local hockey this year, and Buffalo fights Pittsburgh for that every year-and even THAT doesn't consider Southern Ontario).  And the Sabres are not going to fold.

Market share doesn’t make a market big.

[Taro T]

22 hours ago, DarthEbriate said:

Like a support group for Lego Star Wars hockey? General, count me in. Although I do recall that Lego and the NHL once had a licensing agreement ala Lego and the NBA. But whereas the NBA got player minifigs and likenesses, the NHL got some team logo stickers.

The video guy is just a guy who talks hockey with his cats, so your mileage may vary. But if he's quoting Forbes accurately, then the whiteboard has gate revenue as 35.6 or 36.6% of the total. The league needs much bigger TV contracts to stay afloat. Now, all this could totally be fudged by the teams to Forbes to show as woe-is-me, because only one team in the big four professional sports leagues discloses its finances (Green Bay).

Not sure of what you're saying here / might be missing your meaning.  There's a bunch of NHL players that have been Lego-ized.  Sabres included.

[nucci]

On 4/17/2020 at 10:38 AM, Let's Go B-Lo said:

Not worried about it.  Nobody will outright fold.  Florida might relocate but that was the case before this. The Sabres will be fine.  They make a reported 2 million dollar profit having not made the playoffs in a decade, spending to the hilt on salary, and paying multiple coaches not to coach.

Imagine if they were run properly

18 hours ago, mjd1001 said:

I'm actually the opposite.  I am getting by better than I thought.

Would I like them back? Sure. Are a lot of other things gone like movies and dining out and everything else, sure.  But I don't wake up or live my day to day live missing watching sports all that much.  

I do

[Theana745]

 

4 hours ago, PASabreFan said:

Hear here! (Just covering my bases.) May the people find the wisdom and strength and the resolve to sacrifice what they have to support these fine, brave, young men and women and our heroic owners.

Not sure what this means and why everyone here talks in poems. I was just trying inform people what could potentially come. Believe me, I don't have a dog in this fight anymore..not for a long time

[Curt]

On 4/17/2020 at 1:34 PM, Theana745 said:

Understood. I guess the question is whether the people impacted more are the one's who couldn't attend the games to begin with, or people who are actually attending the games. 

It’s not two groups: those who can and can’t attend games.

The person who used to attend 5 games per season, now maybe decides to go to only 2.  The person who attended 1 might now decide not to.  There will most likely be a reduction in fan willingness to spend money.  There may need to be a reduction in ticket prices as a result.  It at least will need to be considered.

[Curt]

19 hours ago, Kruppstahl said:

The fact remains that NHL hockey is very much a regional, niche sport, with very little national following in the USA.

Gary Bettman has tried to pretend otherwise for half my life, to no avail.

Buffalo still tops TV rating figures for NBC sports network games, which tells you all you need to know.  No way a tiny little community like Buffalo should be anywhere close to a big TV market for anything.  The math just doesn't support it.

A TV rating is not a measure of the raw volume of people watching.  It’s a measure of the percentage of people watching.  A Sabres game has higher ratings in Buffalo than a Rangers game in NYC, but there are still more people watching in NYC.

Edited April 19, 2020 by Curt

[freester]

I agree with everything in the video. The NHL is going to have to make major changes to its salary structure, otherwise some teams won’t survive. 

[nfreeman]

On 4/18/2020 at 8:46 AM, Theana745 said:

Again the man in the video states that it is highly depends upon how fans rally around the teams post COVID, even if the product isn't as good as it could be.  Hopefully people recognize that not supporting their sports team could potentially mean there's no more hockey in the "RED" locations. Remember the cap is NOT changing

The bolded is simply false.  The cap is adjusted each year based on the previous year's revenues.  Since revenues for this year are going to fall, the cap will fall too.

[That Aud Smell]

19 hours ago, That Aud Smell said:

Market share doesn’t make a market big.

@Eleven: To your original point, stick tap for having it more right than I appreciated:

“The Sabres' strong television ratings – first in the league in three of the past four years – earned them a better local broadcasting deal than half the league's 30 other teams.”

(from an article in today’s online TBN.)

 

[Theana745]

28 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

The bolded is simply false.  The cap is adjusted each year based on the previous year's revenues.  Since revenues for this year are going to fall, the cap will fall too.

Not my words. This was directly from Mr. Bettman. No cap adjustment next season.