Bang for the buck: which Sabres earned their contracts

[dudacek]

John Vogl has an intriguing piece in the Athletic where he takes the work of the publication’s resident hockey analytics guru Dom Luscsycsyn to let us know who gave us our money’s worth this year.

https://theathletic.com/1743461/2020/04/14/which-sabres-players-provided-the-most-bang-for-the-buck-in-2019-20/
 

Basically, Dom has developed and refined an analytic called GSVA that melds basic stats with analytics that ranks how good a player is. And he has also developed an algorithm that basically says what a GVSA is worth under the cap. It draws some very interesting conclusions.

1) Jack Eichel is ridiculously good. His GVSA is so good (3.41 on a scale where 3 is elite) that he doubles his closest competition and remains the team’s fifth best bargain, even at $10 million a year.

2) Victor Olofsson is the team’s best bargain (and its 2nd best player), which isn’t surprising given his his entry-level salary. And given his $9 million cap hit, it should also be no surprise that Jeff Skinner Is the biggest anchor, with only Frolik close. Salary notwithstanding, Skinner was a (barely) positive player overall though, just edging out Girgensons as our 9th best forward.

3) We had 5 forwards with below replacement negative rankings in GVSa, with Frolik and Asplund being by far the worst, each twice as negative as the next lowest-ranked guy, Mittelstadt. Lazar and Sobotka were the other below-replacement forwards.

4) We had 7 forwards who didn’t earn their contracts: Frolik, Asplund, Mittelstadt, Skinner, Johansen, Okposo, and Sobotka.

5) Okposo might not have earned his contract, but he was the team’s fifth best forward overall, with a GVSA rating of over 1 (scoring line forward)

6) Reinhart was the team’s third best forward according to GVSA and its 4th best contract bargain. The model says he’s worth 6.5 million this year.

7) Larsson and Vesey are bargains at their current salary and Kahun is the 2nd-best bargain on the team.

8. Jokiharju is a bargain, but, according to GVSA, is also basically a replacement level player.

9) Risto is a top four NHL defenceman, according to GVSA, but also not worth his salary.

10) Montour and mIller are both a bit below replacement and relatively overpaid.

11) Dahlin is both the Sabres best GVSA defenceman by far, and its best blueline bargain. He gave us the value of a $5.9 million blueliner.

Edited April 15, 2020 by dudacek

[Taro T]

Sobotka stunk?  But, but, but it was his getting injured that blew the whole thing up. :rolleyes: :lol: 

Cool thing about Dahlin is the kid is still a teen.  Get him an 8 year extension ideally around $7MM, but go higher if necessary.  Anything $8/yr or under will look like a huge bargain about the same time Eichel's contract proved to be a bargain.

[darksabre]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

John Vogl has an intriguing piece in the Athletic where he takes the work of the publication’s resident hockey analytics guru Dom Luscsycsyn to let us know who gave us our money’s worth this year.

https://theathletic.com/1743461/2020/04/14/which-sabres-players-provided-the-most-bang-for-the-buck-in-2019-20/
 

Basically, Dom has developed and refined an analytic called GSVA that melds basic stats with analytics that ranks how good a player is. And he has also developed an algorithm that basically says what a GVSA is worth under the cap. It draws some very interesting conclusions.

1) Jack Eichel is ridiculously good. His GVSA is so good (3.41 on a scale where 3 is elite) that he doubles his closest competition and remains the team’s fifth best bargain, even at $10 million a year.

2) Victor Olofsson is the team’s best bargain (and its 2nd best player), which isn’t surprising given his his entry-level salary. And given his $9 million cap hit, it should also be no surprise that Jeff Skinner Is the biggest anchor, with only Frolik close. Salary notwithstanding, Skinner was a (barely) positive player overall though, just edging out Girgensons as our 9th best forward.

3) We had 5 forwards with below replacement negative rankings in GVSa, with Frolik and Asplund being by far the worst, each twice as negative as the next lowest-ranked guy, Mittelstadt. Lazar and Sobotka were the other below-replacement forwards.

4) We had 7 forwards who didn’t earn their contracts: Frolik, Asplund, Mittelstadt, Skinner, Johansen, Okposo, and Sobotka.

5) Okposo might not have earned his contract, but he was the team’s fifth best forward overall, with a GVSA rating of over 1 (scoring line forward)

6) Reinhart was the team’s third best forward according to GVSA and its 4th best contract bargain. The model says he’s worth 6.5 million this year.

7) Larsson and Vesey are bargains at their current salary and Kahun is the 2nd-best bargain on the team.

8. Jokiharju is a bargain, but, according the GVSA, also basically a replacement level player.

9) Risto is a top four NHL defenceman, according to GVSA, but also not worth his salary.

10) Montour and mIller are both a bit below replacement and relatively overpaid.

11) Dahlin is both the Sabres best GVSA defenceman by far, and its best bargain. He gave us the value of a $5.9 million blueliner.

Interesting stuff. This all lines up perfectly with the good ol eye test. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

What we got our money's worth from Vesey?  You mean Vesey wasn't a terrible acquisition.  I'm shocked! Ok not really.

 

 

[LGR4GM]

What? Lazar and Asplund are not as good as Larsson? I am shocked...

[ubkev]

Asplund is horrible? Shocked, I am! 

Every time I see him written into future lineups I know we're still bad.

[Taro T]

2 hours ago, ubkev said:

Asplund is horrible? Shocked, I am! 

Every time I see him written into future lineups I know we're still bad.

The same was said about Pominville circa '04.

And Campbell, too.

[Sabres Fan in NS]

I find the thread title confusing when I see it on the main board front page.

That's all ...

[GASabresIUFAN]

7 minutes ago, New Scotland (NS) said:

I find the thread title confusing when I see it on the main board front page.

That's all ...

Sounds more like a thread about Robert Kraft

[dudacek]

Title changed.

Because, well, anything for NS.

And no one wants to be confused for Robert Kraft, ever.

[erickompositör72]

58 minutes ago, New Scotland (NS) said:

I find the thread title confusing when I see it on the main board front page.

That's all ...

 

50 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Sounds more like a thread about Robert Kraft

 

31 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Title changed.

Because, well, anything for NS.

And no one wants to be confused for Robert Kraft, ever.

Now I want to know what the original title was

[Sabres Fan in NS]

12 minutes ago, erickompositör72 said:

 

 

Now I want to know what the original title was

Bang for the (or a, can't remember) buck