Yerdon's suggestions for forwards for the Sabres

[nfreeman]

3 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I love comments like these.  "He's never coming here" "He'll never take such a cheap contract" "He'll have tons of suitors."  Based on what? Because Buffalo?  These are frankly tired cliches at this point.  

Johnson will be 30 this July.  He isn't getting a long-term deal from anyone.  His PT has decreased each of last 4 seasons, from 18:40 to 14:33 per game.  He had his worst season of his career with 31 pts in 65 games.  His number of total faceoffs has also decreased for the last 4 years from 1100 down 350.  I'm sorry but no one is throwing big $ or big term at such a player.  Johnson's numbers this past season are similar to FAs Galchenyuk, Soderberg, Craig Smith, Mikael Granlund, Chris Tierney, Fast, and Namestnikov.  That's a crowded group of similar free agents.

With a buy out he'll receive approx 1.75 mill for the next 8 years.  He can afford to look for the best situation to try to reestablish himself as a top 6 forward.  We offer such an opportunity.

People here made similar comments last summer about whether or not someone like Mojo would come here.  He was coming off a similar season but an excellent playoffs and was a year younger.  All he got was a two year deal (at 4.95).  This time however, because of the cap pressures, I believe the $ will be smaller for middle of the road UFAs.  

 

If the Sabres bring back JB this will be one of the bottom-3 destinations in the NHL for free agents.  Buffalo is already close to the bottom per the survey in the Athletic earlier this season and keeping JB means there is zero hope or excitement to lure a FA that has other options.  
 

You are right about shrinking cap space leaguewide but that list of FA centers was pretty thin and there will be plenty of interest in Johnson (heh.).  No one is giving him a 7-year deal but a better franchise will give him a 3- or 4-year deal and he’ll take it.  

[Thorner]

11 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I have zero problem with keeping Larsson and Vesey assuming either wants to stay.  Of our UFAs Larsson is the only priority IMHO.  Step 2 is a no-brainer except maybe Girgensons, but even then I'm ok with that as well.  However, I don't think much of any of the guys in step 3 except Toffoli.  Which of these guys would help us down the middle.  Smith and Toffoli haven't played center in years.  Honestly, until we address the spine of the forward group (aka the 2C issue), adding wingers doesn't matter. 

Also with the cap situation up in the air and a possible compliance buyout because of it, things could look very different then that do right now.

For example:  If there is a compliance buyout, do you buyout KO?  Given his injury history this is a no-brainer.  So if you buyout KO, do you then re-sign Simmonds to assume that 4th line checking role.  I would.

FYI:  https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/top-11-purely-hypothetical-nhl-compliance-buyout-candidates/

 

The bolded is exactly it. I have to stop reading these things if they don't mention adding a legit 2C. Anything besides that is deck chairs, at least considering the quality of the potential winger adds. 

We are not making the playoffs with Marcus Johansson as our 2C. 

Also, no to Vesey. 

Edited April 1, 2020 by Thorny

[Thorner]

7 hours ago, nfreeman said:

Well, you’re not alone in wanting to keep Simmonds, and it certainly wouldn’t be the first time I’ve been wrong here.
 

(It might be the first for @Randall Flagg, though.)

You're right, he isn't alone. 

Botterill also wants to. But I think that's the list. 

?

Edited April 1, 2020 by Thorny

[Thorner]

5 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I love comments like these.  "He's never coming here" "He'll never take such a cheap contract" "He'll have tons of suitors."  Based on what? Because Buffalo?  These are frankly tired cliches at this point.  

Johnson will be 30 this July.  He isn't getting a long-term deal from anyone.  His PT has decreased each of last 4 seasons, from 18:40 to 14:33 per game.  He had his worst season of his career with 31 pts in 65 games.  His number of total faceoffs has also decreased for the last 4 years from 1100 down 350.  I'm sorry but no one is throwing big $ or big term at such a player.  Johnson's numbers this past season are similar to FAs Galchenyuk, Soderberg, Craig Smith, Mikael Granlund, Chris Tierney, Fast, and Namestnikov.  That's a crowded group of similar free agents.

With a buy out he'll receive approx 1.75 mill for the next 8 years.  He can afford to look for the best situation to try to reestablish himself as a top 6 forward.  We offer such an opportunity.

People here made similar comments last summer about whether or not someone like Mojo would come here.  He was coming off a similar season but an excellent playoffs and was a year younger.  All he got was a two year deal (at 4.95).  This time however, because of the cap pressures, I believe the $ will be smaller for middle of the road UFAs.  

 

Won the battle, lost the war here, no? 

This makes me not want him. 

[Broken Ankles]

11 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Honestly, I'm kind of hoping for cap agreement between the NHL and the PA with a buyout.  I'm buying out KO, hopefully signing Tyler Johnson (if TB buys him out) and then re-signing Simmonds and Larsson for the 4th line

VO Jack Reinhart

Skinner Johnson Toffoli

MoJo Cozens/Mitts Kahun

Asplund/Lazar Larsson Simmonds.

I like that forward group.  

 

 

You should hope there is no agreement for a compliance buyout. While the KO contract may be considered toxic the Sabres have an estimated  $37million in Cap Space and that is their biggest asset this July.  As @nfreeman mentioned, the Sabres are a bottom 3  (maybe bottom 5) destination, so you are better off using that space to pry your next 2C from a team that might be up against the cap.  A player like Cirelli will not be moving by an offer sheet.  The only way a player like that ends up on a Sabres team is if Tampa is constrained and has no other options.  A Sophie’s Choice - which would almost always result in TB keeping Segechev over Cirelli and needing help to ensure Cernak stays too.  If you give teams with less than  $15m in space a free out, then we lose leverage.  Especially those with top flight RFA’s.  KO can find a niche on a retooled third Line with Lazar and MaJo.  And I’m not suggesting they have to take on players like Hunwick or Sobotka in return.  You accept cap, but players that can still contribute.

And while I agree it will be challenging to acquire any top level UFAs, the glut of Goalies makes a signing there much more plausible than other positions.   Unfortunately I think if (when?) JB is retained, he chooses to stick with Carter Hutton.  

[shrader]

9 hours ago, nfreeman said:

If the Sabres bring back JB this will be one of the bottom-3 destinations in the NHL for free agents.  Buffalo is already close to the bottom per the survey in the Athletic earlier this season and keeping JB means there is zero hope or excitement to lure a FA that has other options.  
 

Buffalo has always been in the bottom of those polls.  It has nothing to do with Botterill, Pegula, or anyone else in the organization.  As long as those polls are being conducted, Buffalo will always be at the bottom.  Death, taxes, and ripping on Buffalo.

[freester]

20 minutes ago, shrader said:

Buffalo has always been in the bottom of those polls.  It has nothing to do with Botterill, Pegula, or anyone else in the organization.  As long as those polls are being conducted, Buffalo will always be at the bottom.  Death, taxes, and ripping on Buffalo.

Had Jbot been competent and produced a winner, Buffalo would be perceived as a desirable place for free agents.  Hockey polls of this nature are different than Football polls as most hockey players grow up in cold weather climates.

[GASabresIUFAN]

8 hours ago, Thorny said:

Won the battle, lost the war here, no? 

This makes me not want him. 

I was thinking that somewhat as I wrote it but I believe part of his decrease is the PT earned by guys like Cirelli and Point.  They are the better players right now but that doesn’t mean someone like Johnson, who is a real center unlike MoJo, can’t bridge the gap for us for two years until Cozens is ready for that role. JT Miller experienced a similar drop in PT and scoring with Tampa because of their great forward depth and then flourished in a new organization. 

[Eleven]

51 minutes ago, shrader said:

Buffalo has always been in the bottom of those polls. 

No it hasn't.  Players wanted to come here in 2007.

[shrader]

23 minutes ago, freester said:

Had Jbot been competent and produced a winner, Buffalo would be perceived as a desirable place for free agents.  Hockey polls of this nature are different than Football polls as most hockey players grow up in cold weather climates.

It has absolutely nothing to do with weather.  Every single year they have this poll and every single year Buffalo is near the bottom.  The question is typically worded as "the worst road city" though, which is important to keep in mind.  When it comes time for a paycheck, there's a huge difference between a bad road city and somewhere you don't want to play full time.

[GASabresIUFAN]

3 minutes ago, shrader said:

It has absolutely nothing to do with weather.  Every single year they have this poll and every single year Buffalo is near the bottom.  The question is typically worded as "the worst road city" though, which is important to keep in mind.  When it comes time for a paycheck, there's a huge difference between a bad road city and somewhere you don't want to play full time.

Absolutely NY adds high taxes to make it really special.

[mjd1001]

Jack, VO, Reinhart, Skinner, Kahun, Lazar, Mitts, Cozens and Johanson....I'm ok with the best 6 or 7 of them being in the top 9.  But I think this team needs to add 2 or 3 more quality players to the top 9.

Girgensons, Larsson, Asplund, Okposo...I'm good with 3 of those 4 being on the 4th line.

The question is..who are those 2 or 3 more forwards for the top 9, and what are they going to cost you?  What I don't want is to overpay for a free agent just to fill the spot...or to sign/trade for a player that if EVERYTHING goes right they will be an improvement, but with the odds you are likely not getting what you want from them.

I don't know the solution, the bad part is the most likely way to success is patience....waiting...not 'doing whatever is possible' to fill those holes right away.

 

[nfreeman]

52 minutes ago, shrader said:

It has absolutely nothing to do with weather.  Every single year they have this poll and every single year Buffalo is near the bottom.  The question is typically worded as "the worst road city" though, which is important to keep in mind.  When it comes time for a paycheck, there's a huge difference between a bad road city and somewhere you don't want to play full time.

Well, I think the weather is somewhat of a factor, but I think, as @Eleven points out, the biggest factor by far is the perceived quality of the organization.  The Sabres have been a crappy organization for most of the era in which those polls have been taken.  Once they get the right guys in to run the team, and build a consistent winner, plenty of players will want to come here.  That's what's happened with the Bills, and it didn't even take that long.

[Randall Flagg]

Assuming we get Reinhart and Olofsson signed, I'd love to get Craig Smith. 

Skinner - Eichel - xxx
Olofsson - xxx - Reinhart
Kahun - Craig Smith - Johansson
xxx - xxx - Okposo 

pray we can keep one or both of Zemgus/Larry, and maybe Asplund is ready, and the fourth line is done. Worst case scenario is Asplund - Lazar - Kyle, which might not be so bad. Plus if our 3rd line is that good, it'd be far easier to not overwhelm the 4th one. Then you're looking at finding the 2C, and the top line winger doesn't have to be some superstar - Pominville two years ago didn't sink the line, just find somebody that fits in. Doable. 

The problem is, if those xxx's come from a pool of Simmonds, Mitts, Cozens, Tage, and a typical Botterill forward, then we're still going to suck 

Even if we keep Jason we can be ready to make the playoffs next year, his body of work just scares the ***** out of me

And he'd probably prefer to give a million less to a bad player than to pay Craig Smith (who I honestly don't know that much about haha)

Edited April 1, 2020 by Randall Flagg

[GASabresIUFAN]

13 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

Assuming we get Reinhart and Olofsson signed, I'd love to get Craig Smith. 

Skinner - Eichel - xxx
Olofsson - xxx - Reinhart
Kahun - Craig Smith - Johansson
xxx - xxx - Okposo 

pray we can keep one or both of Zemgus/Larry, and maybe Asplund is ready, and the fourth line is done. Worst case scenario is Asplund - Lazar - Kyle, which might not be so bad. Plus if our 3rd line is that good, it'd be far easier to not overwhelm the 4th one. Then you're looking at finding the 2C, and the top line winger doesn't have to be some superstar - Pominville two years ago didn't sink the line, just find somebody that fits in. Doable. 

The problem is, if those xxx's come from a pool of Simmonds, Mitts, Cozens, Tage, and a typical Botterill forward, then we're still going to suck 

Even if we keep Jason we can be ready to make the playoffs next year, his body of work just scares the ***** out of me

And he'd probably prefer to give a million less to a bad player than to pay Craig Smith (who I honestly don't know that much about haha)

Craig Smith hasn't played center in years.  It's just MoJo part 2.  

[freester]

1 minute ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Craig Smith hasn't played center in years.  It's just MoJo part 2.  

Craig Smith can play center, just ask Ville Leino.  I'm sure we will get the same great results.

[Randall Flagg]

Just now, GASabresIUFAN said:

Craig Smith hasn't played center in years.  It's just MoJo part 2.  

Goes to show how unreliable positional listings are on the internet, then. 

That being said, it's not Mojo part 2. We brought in Mojo to play 2C, so that our center spine was Eichel - 2C who is really a 3W - Mitts - Larsson. 

I emphasize acquiring a 2C, so that we have Eichel - 2C - xxx - 4C, and that xxx is one of 3 guys who have played center at some point in their careers - that third line is entirely "kinda centers." a much more acceptable scenario, on a less important line, than what we did with Mojo this yaer.

[GASabresIUFAN]

We need to get a 2C.  Domi, Henrique, Johnson, Strome, etc whomever.  For this puzzle to work and to maximize Skinner, we need a legit 2C.  Any solution that doesn't solve this issue is not a solution.

 

[BuffalOhio]

19 hours ago, nfreeman said:

Regarding Simmonds:  he looked like late-stage Moulson to me.  I don't think he can keep up with the game any longer.

Haha!  We can now refer to a player as having End-Stage Moulson's disease.  

[GASabresIUFAN]

3 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

Goes to show how unreliable positional listings are on the internet, then. 

That being said, it's not Mojo part 2. We brought in Mojo to play 2C, so that our center spine was Eichel - 2C who is really a 3W - Mitts - Larsson. 

I emphasize acquiring a 2C, so that we have Eichel - 2C - xxx - 4C, and that xxx is one of 3 guys who have played center at some point in their careers - that third line is entirely "kinda centers." a much more acceptable scenario, on a less important line, than what we did with Mojo this yaer.

While not a perfect solution, I usually look at how many faceoffs a guy takes to help determine if he really plays center now.  For example Smith took 29 faceoffs last season.  Tyler Johnson took 350.  

[Randall Flagg]

39 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

While not a perfect solution, I usually look at how many faceoffs a guy takes to help determine if he really plays center now.  For example Smith took 29 faceoffs last season.  Tyler Johnson took 350.  

That's a pretty good way to do it. I lose track of all those middle six Nashville forwards anyway. for all I know, everything I think I know about Smith is actually about Jarnkrok 

[Thorner]

On 4/1/2020 at 9:37 AM, shrader said:

It has absolutely nothing to do with weather.  Every single year they have this poll and every single year Buffalo is near the bottom.  The question is typically worded as "the worst road city" though, which is important to keep in mind.  When it comes time for a paycheck, there's a huge difference between a bad road city and somewhere you don't want to play full time.

I dunno about that. The only teams consistently ranked below Buffalo in polls like those are Winnipeg and Edmonton. 

On 4/1/2020 at 10:33 AM, nfreeman said:

Well, I think the weather is somewhat of a factor, but I think, as @Eleven points out, the biggest factor by far is the perceived quality of the organization.  The Sabres have been a crappy organization for most of the era in which those polls have been taken.  Once they get the right guys in to run the team, and build a consistent winner, plenty of players will want to come here.  That's what's happened with the Bills, and it didn't even take that long.

And Winnipeg has been a great organization. Seems the common denominator is something other than organizational competence. 

[shrader]

4 hours ago, Thorny said:

I dunno about that. The only teams consistently ranked below Buffalo in polls like those are Winnipeg and Edmonton.

More remote locations.  Even thought it's not true, Buffalo has that reputation too thanks to the giant cities on the other side of the state and the other side of the lake.  Remote may not be the right word when it comes to Buffalo, but it's definitely the black sheep when compared to it's perceived surroundings.

And what else really hurts is flying into that airport and then the drive over.  It's not easy on the eyes.

[DarthEbriate]

On 4/1/2020 at 8:56 AM, GASabresIUFAN said:

We need to get a 2C.  Domi, Henrique, Johnson, Strome, etc whomever.  For this puzzle to work and to maximize Skinner, we need a legit 2C.  Any solution that doesn't solve this issue is not a solution.

That's the real trick, isn't it? And it's gonna cost us something extra. Ten thousand Seven million, all in advance.

What has me fearful is my penciled-in center spine of Eichel - Kahun - Lazar (for Larry) - Asplund next year if all else falls apart. In my heart I know it won't be so. Cozens on Asplund's wing, because, you know, don't want to rush the kid.

[GASabresIUFAN]

1 hour ago, DarthEbriate said:

That's the real trick, isn't it? And it's gonna cost us something extra. Ten thousand Seven million, all in advance.

What has me fearful is my penciled-in center spine of Eichel - Kahun - Lazar (for Larry) - Asplund next year if all else falls apart. In my heart I know it won't be so. Cozens on Asplund's wing, because, you know, don't want to rush the kid.

My hope is Jack, 2C, Cozens/Mitts, Larry, Lazar.  I know people keep says no to either Mitts or Cozens as the 3C, but at some point these kids are going to have to play and contribute for this rebuild to work long-term.  If we get a decent 2C, then I think we are safe to try the kids in a backup scoring role.  

What is nice with Kahun, Larry, Lazar and Asplund we'd have depth in case one or both of the kids still aren't ready.  Personally, I think Cozens, like Reinhart was also, is ready to step in and be at 40 pt player in 3rd line center role.  

Edited April 3, 2020 by GASabresIUFAN