UFA and Cap space

[LGR4GM]

So there has been a lot of talk that Jason Botterill is actually smart because he now has all this cap space he can use. I think he is an idiot who created his own cap problems but that isn't the point. The point is this. Let us hypothesize that we have been set up to have cap space this offseason to fix the team. We need a 2C for sure. So the next question is who is available? 

I have attached the list courtesy of capfriendly. Now I want you to ask yourself, who can we get that is actually a 2C and what will it cost? Keep in mind our last 2C's cost was 7.5mil per year for another 3 years. So Botterill has left us this list of centers to pick from in UFA. Again this is based off the ongoing discussion that we are set up to make a splash in UFA. So this is not about trading or getting an RFA center.

[Taro T]

2 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

So there has been a lot of talk that Jason Botterill is actually smart because he now has all this cap space he can use. I think he is an idiot who created his own cap problems but that isn't the point. The point is this. Let us hypothesize that we have been set up to have cap space this offseason to fix the team. We need a 2C for sure. So the next question is who is available? 

I have attached the list courtesy of capfriendly. Now I want you to ask yourself, who can we get that is actually a 2C and what will it cost? Keep in mind our last 2C's cost was 7.5mil per year for another 3 years. So Botterill has left us this list of centers to pick from in UFA. Again this is based off the ongoing discussion that we are set up to make a splash in UFA. So this is not about trading or getting an RFA center.

OK, so you're setting up a discussion about how the team will fix the 2C issue while intentionally not discussing the most likely way the issue will get remedied.  Understanding people are bored, which may answer this question, but why?

[LGR4GM]

8 minutes ago, Taro T said:

OK, so you're setting up a discussion about how the team will fix the 2C issue while intentionally not discussing the most likely way the issue will get remedied.  Understanding people are bored, which may answer this question, but why?

I have been told that Botterill was setting us up to spend in UFA. The biggest need is 2c, just asking how he will spend on it in UFA.

[dudacek]

18 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I have been told that Botterill was setting us up to spend in UFA. The biggest need is 2c, just asking how he will spend on it in UFA.

Cap space isn’t automatically going to be weaponized in UFA signings. Most observers and Botterill’s own statements indicate it will be far more likely utilized in a trade with us taking on salary from a team seeking to create space for themselves.

Your list just reinforces that, so I’m with Taro: why limit discussion?

Of course this being Sabrespace, people aren’t going to stay on a rigid path anyway, so good luck with that.

Id say the most reasonable thing the Sabres should do is target a real 2C in a trade using their cap flexibility to sweeten the pot. Ryan Johansen (even though I’m not personally a fan) perhaps?

UFA will likely be used to re-sign Larry and Girgs or target their replacements.

Edited March 30, 2020 by dudacek

[LGR4GM]

fine open it up to trades, what 2c are we generously taking from a team while also adding a cap dump?

[Wyldnwoody44]

I'll take max domi please 

[Taro T]

34 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I have been told that Botterill was setting us up to spend in UFA. The biggest need is 2c, just asking how he will spend on it in UFA.

Who has told you he's going to spend presumably heavily in UFA?  

My expectation is that the only big $ UFA (and it won't be a huge $ UFA) is in net.  Possibly, a 2nd line winger as a UFA, but really believe one of Kahun, Thompson, or even Johansson is pencilled in there.

Am expecting a fair amount of the cap space to get spent on Reinhart & Montour raises and hopefully, not this coming year's capspace, but the following gets set via an 8 year extension of Dahlin this off-season.  Also expect non-cap affecting extensions to Lazar, Mittelstadt, and others of that ilk.  Which leaves hopefully small raises for Girgensons & Larsson and then the remaining (non saved for a rainy day) cap space gets applied towards making a true 2C the return in a package for a RHD & a prospect / pick.  Say Cirelli as a placeholder.

That would use up most all of the cap space, but would have the Sabres set with a quality roster at least until Okposo's contract slides off the books.

 

[Zamboni]

Someone who is on the downside of his career but is still productive enough to be a good short term 2C. He’s played both C and RW. Better than any center the Sabres have besides Eichel. That could then allow Cozens and Mitts to develop in a better environment. And I don’t think he’d cost a ton in assets. Brian Little.

 

[bob_sauve28]

6 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Who has told you he's going to spend presumably heavily in UFA?  

My expectation is that the only big $ UFA (and it won't be a huge $ UFA) is in net.  Possibly, a 2nd line winger as a UFA, but really believe one of Kahun, Thompson, or even Johansson is pencilled in there.

Am expecting a fair amount of the cap space to get spent on Reinhart & Montour raises and hopefully, not this coming year's capspace, but the following gets set via an 8 year extension of Dahlin this off-season.  Also expect non-cap affecting extensions to Lazar, Mittelstadt, and others of that ilk.  Which leaves hopefully small raises for Girgensons & Larsson and then the remaining (non saved for a rainy day) cap space gets applied towards making a true 2C the return in a package for a RHD & a prospect / pick.  Say Cirelli as a placeholder.

That would use up most all of the cap space, but would have the Sabres set with a quality roster at least until Okposo's contract slides off the books.

 

This will be interesting to see what happens there. I actually think that a decent, non-expensive player who could play 25-35 games would fit the bill. I have faith in Ullmark to be the regular starter. 

[Weave]

Regarding cap space..... I’m starting to get a feeling that we may become an internal cap team in the near future.  Just a feeling, fwiw.

Which may reinforce the idea that trade is the most likely route to a 2C.  Well, or a plan involving Kahun.

[Taro T]

5 minutes ago, Weave said:

Regarding cap space..... I’m starting to get a feeling that we may become an internal cap team in the near future.  Just a feeling, fwiw.

Which may reinforce the idea that trade is the most likely route to a 2C.  Well, or a plan involving Kahun.

If they do become an internal cap team we may be looking at another 9 years of suffering with $27MM (minimum) locked up in just 3 players (Eichel, Skinner, Dahlin).  

[Taro T]

8 minutes ago, bob_sauve28 said:

This will be interesting to see what happens there. I actually think that a decent, non-expensive player who could play 25-35 games would fit the bill. I have faith in Ullmark to be the regular starter. 

Possible.  But, really expecting they'll drop at least as much on another goalie as they did on Hutton and wouldn't be at all surprised to see a $6MM man brought in.  For $6MM, you get somebody better than Lehner or Varlamov.  Sets up a nice 1-2 combo with Ullmark.  Can't see them dropping $8MM+, but somebody in that $6MM range could definitely be a target.

Plus, they'd still have Hutton floating in the AHL, as doubt anybody would put in a waiver claim.  (Wouod actually help the Sabres if they did.)

[LGR4GM]

5 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Possible.  But, really expecting they'll drop at least as much on another goalie as they did on Hutton and wouldn't be at all surprised to see a $6MM man brought in.  For $6MM, you get somebody better than Lehner or Varlamov.  Sets up a nice 1-2 combo with Ullmark.  Can't see them dropping $8MM+, but somebody in that $6MM range could definitely be a target.

Plus, they'd still have Hutton floating in the AHL, as doubt anybody would put in a waiver claim.  (Wouod actually help the Sabres if they did.)

[dudacek]

I wouldn’t break the bank for him, but Markstrom would be the UFA signing with the largest potential impact on the ice for the Sabres next year.

7 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

 

[DarthEbriate]

This is where it would have been nice to keep our 3rd round pick. Having the option to offer sheet an RFA C anywhere from 4.2M-8.4M could have given us more flexibility.

Edited March 30, 2020 by DarthEbriate

[shrader]

56 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Possible.  But, really expecting they'll drop at least as much on another goalie as they did on Hutton and wouldn't be at all surprised to see a $6MM man brought in.  For $6MM, you get somebody better than Lehner or Varlamov.  Sets up a nice 1-2 combo with Ullmark.  Can't see them dropping $8MM+, but somebody in that $6MM range could definitely be a target.

Plus, they'd still have Hutton floating in the AHL, as doubt anybody would put in a waiver claim.  (Wouod actually help the Sabres if they did.)

Thanks for throwing in that last part because I was getting ready to ask how they make space for that move.  I have a hard time seeing them stashing him, but I suppose he's dead cap space on or off the team.

[triumph_communes]

2 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

So there has been a lot of talk that Jason Botterill is actually smart because he now has all this cap space he can use. I think he is an idiot who created his own cap problems but that isn't the point. The point is this. Let us hypothesize that we have been set up to have cap space this offseason to fix the team. We need a 2C for sure. So the next question is who is available? 

I have attached the list courtesy of capfriendly. Now I want you to ask yourself, who can we get that is actually a 2C and what will it cost? Keep in mind our last 2C's cost was 7.5mil per year for another 3 years. So Botterill has left us this list of centers to pick from in UFA. Again this is based off the ongoing discussion that we are set up to make a splash in UFA. So this is not about trading or getting an RFA center.

Would you be opposed to 2 years out of Soderberg?

[GASabresIUFAN]

We saw one way Jbot will use his extra cap space and that was by acquiring RFA Kahun who Pitt likely couldn't afford to re-sign.  Many here (including me) hope he can manage to get Cirelli the same way.  

That said, my gut tells me the way to get the 2C is a $ in for $ out type deal, such as a Henrique plus for Risto.  If Jbot can accomplish this gives him even more flexibility this offseason.  Even an RFA for RFA type deal might work, like Montour for Domi or Cirelli or Strome (Chi) as the key pieces.  Why might TB be interested in Montour?  He'll be much cheaper to re-sign then Cirelli and the only RD on their roster for next season is RFA Cernak. 

 

[triumph_communes]

If you believe Samuelson will compete for a spot, Botterill failing to move out a defenseman this offseason will be a rotten egg on his face. I understood last season. Maybe a deadline deal wasn’t there. But the excuses are gone now 

Edited March 31, 2020 by triumph_communes

[GASabresIUFAN]

Two other issue with cap for next year both stem from the Covid-19.  WIll the cap fall given that 13% or so of the regular season has been lost and maybe the playoffs as well.  If this happens, will the teams get a compliance buyout.  If teams get a buyout, then this drastically changes the FA market.  TB will almost certainly buyout one of Gourde, Johnson or Palat with Palat being the least likely IMHO.  

Johnson would be a nice temporary 2C.  Coming here would give him the best opportunity to play again as a top 6 forward.

Edited March 31, 2020 by GASabresIUFAN

[Taro T]

37 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Two other issue with cap for next year both stem from the Covid-19.  WIll the cap fall given that 13% or so of the regular season has been lost and maybe the playoffs as well.  If this happens, will the teams get a compliance buyout.  If teams get a buyout, then this drastically changes the FA market.  TB will almost certainly buyout one of Gourde, Johnson or Palat with Palat being the least likely IMHO.  

Johnson would be a nice temporary 2C.  Coming here would give him the best opportunity to play again as a top 6 forward.

Remember, a revenue shortage this season due to the virus will effect what players finally take home this season, not next.  Unless the owners find themselves uncharacteristically magnanimous, the players will be writing checks to cover what they didn't earn beyond escrow withholdings.  (Aside: wonder if the league, teams, &/or players are insured for catastrophic losses.  If they are, maybe everybody isn't taking as much of a haircut as originally expected.  Also wonder if they qualify for CARES Act funding.  Collectively bargained salaries up to $3MM were specifically excluded from the $450k caps on salaries for employees of companies receiving funds,)

Now, it is possible that because of this season's virus losses, that the league expects revenues next year to dip (especially if there are no playoffs this year and the networks expect a discount on next year's contract to cover money they've already spent and also as STH payments for this season get applied to next year) but it isn't a given YET.  Though it looks more likely each day that there will be a revenue effect next year as well.  So, that cap reduction could very realistically happen.

The question about the compliance buyout is an interesting one.  Fehr has always been a hardliner, but he allowed the current CBA to last it's full duration.  Would be awesome if he and Daly are secretly in Zoom / WebX meetings working out an early extension of the CBA that runs through 2030, but that is the pipedream.

Because they are so close to the CBA expiring, would expect them to both default into distrust mode, but maybe this crisis has them seeing they're actually in this together.  Could see the players going for it if the compliance bought out players get their full salary and they don't count against the players' share of HRR.  The other wildcard in all this is that small revenue teams like Arizona and Florida would likely oppose it.  Arizona could be in great shape if the cap goes down; they'd have no incentive to help big payroll teams out of a jam.

If there aren't compliance buyouts AND the cap goes down, hoping Botterill is 1st in line at the Tampa discount store's opening and close to the front of the line for the Loaf firesale as well. ?

 

[GASabresIUFAN]

Lower revenues this year means a lower cap next season.  Each year the cap for next season is based on the prior year's revenue (ranging from 50% to 57% of the league revenue - the biggest the revenue the higher the player's share)  Obviously revenue is going to fall this season significantly.  This likely means a corresponding drop in the salary cap.  It's in the interest of both parties to make a temporary agreement for 2020-21 to avoid a huge drop in the cap.  I can see an agreement where the cap falls to 78 mill with each team getting one buyout. 

 

[GASabresIUFAN]

Here is another good article regarding the NHL Cap mess.

https://nypost.com/2020/03/13/potential-revenue-enhancing-plan-could-rescue-nhl/

[inkman]

On 3/30/2020 at 1:17 PM, Weave said:

Regarding cap space..... I’m starting to get a feeling that we may become an internal cap team in the near future.  Just a feeling, fwiw.

Which may reinforce the idea that trade is the most likely route to a 2C.  Well, or a plan involving Kahun.

Is it due the Pegula's increasingly alarming narrative to be cheap SOBs, acting like cash poor owners? 

[Weave]

34 minutes ago, inkman said:

Is it due the Pegula's increasingly alarming narrative to be cheap SOBs, acting like cash poor owners? 

Maybe over stated a bit, but yeah, the appearance is certainly there that they aren’t willing to spend lime when they first arrived.

 

The last several posts has me pondering the future.  What will the cap look like in the next few years should we see a serious recession evolve out of this Covid mess?