Why is Botterill still GM?

[Eleven]

8 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Cody Glass could be Mitts. I get that. I just see more of a Cozens level player. From what I saw of him this past year, you could tell the speed of the game was beyond him. He skates well, but he wasn't processing the NHL at game speed. Is that a concern, yes. Could he not make it, also yes. I just like his overall skillset more than Mitts, hence my reaction. As usual, I should have written a post as opposed to just posting a reaction. 

 

6 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

In short, Glass skates better, shoots better, and I think has a more natural motor than Casey Mittelstadt. 

That being said, I hope another year of AHL action gets Mitts up to speed. 

Even if all of this is correct, and I've no reason to doubt you, I want a roster-ready player back in a Ristolainen trade.  The future is evaporating again.

[dudacek]

41 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

Dis me? 

Yep. Don’t remember if you had an opinion on him prior to the NHL, but you’ve been pretty vocal on not liking Casey’s game or his skill level since.

Edited May 1, 2020 by dudacek

[LGR4GM]

23 minutes ago, Eleven said:

 

Even if all of this is correct, and I've no reason to doubt you, I want a roster-ready player back in a Ristolainen trade.  The future is evaporating again.

Hmm, you make a good point. I retract my fire him for this particular thing. 

[Randall Flagg]

17 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Yep. Don’t remember if you had an opinion on him prior to the NHL, but you’ve been pretty vocal on not liking Casey’s game or his skill level since.

I was perfectly optimistic about him until I started getting worred about his NCAA D+1 production. I started getting vocal into the 18/19 season when it became more evident as time went on that he shouldn't be here. I didn't watch him before he was drafted or in college, and his coming from high school meant that I had no real bearing to understand how dominant he was, and how it might compare to others and their NHL success from that level. 

The more I saw, the less impressed I was with the things that were supposed to be his forte, and into his NHL season this year that was still apparent to me, and I'm happy he was sent down to properly develop and hope to keep him there until he generates the talk that Olofsson started to last year and last summer, and then does what Olofsson did to earn unanimous approval of his spot on the roster. I don't have a gauge on the likelihood of this, but I think it's closer to Tage's likelihood (which I view as slim) than Cozens' (which i view as high) 

[Randall Flagg]

So to more explicitly answer your question, I didn't see him do any of the things that made him a consensus top 10 pick, I only start the story with what I've seen with the Sabres

[Pimlach]

Why would we trade Risto over trading Montour?   i assume you can get more for Risto but maybe not.

[Eleven]

Just now, Pimlach said:

Why would we trade Risto over trading Montour?   i assume you can get more for Risto but maybe not.

That's why.

[Broken Ankles]

49 minutes ago, Eleven said:

That's why.

Can you though?  Get more for Risto than Montour?  Why not trade them both?

I'd rather take a swing at a RD like Alex Pietrangelo as a true #1 to pair with Dahlin, as opposed to the $10M in AAV you'd spend on two #2's.  Or maybe 'Buf' on  a smaller & shorter agreement.

[Thorner]

4 hours ago, dudacek said:

Why?

Similar age, position, size, talent level and draft position. They've both dominated as juniors, been effective in the AHL and their NHL production last year was virtually identical.

When did Mittelstadt dominate juniors?

High school hockey which is tough to evaluate, then 30 points in 34 NCAA games the year AFTER we drafted him. 

We all love/d Mittelstadt because he had a good 7 games stretch in an over-hyped one-off tournament the season after we drafted him. There were prospect analysts that followed things more in depth that were sounding the warning horns on him even as guys like Kris Baker were saying he was our best shot at the Calder the year both he and Dahlin were rookies. 

What we've seen is a slow, lazy player who I still have hope for but seemingly needs to completely revamp his strategy. 

Edited May 1, 2020 by Thorny

[dudacek]

2 minutes ago, Thorny said:

When did Mittelstadt dominate juniors?

MVP of the WJC, generally 1st or 2nd ranked prospect outside the NHL in most lists in his post-draft year.

Or is it the “juniors” you are questioning because he didn’t play CHL? If so, “junior-age competition”

[Thorner]

3 minutes ago, dudacek said:

MVP of the WJC, generally 1st or 2nd ranked prospect outside the NHL in most lists in his post-draft year.

Or is it the “juniors” you are questioning because he didn’t play CHL? If so, “junior-age competition”

Sorry, I expanded my post. I have a habit of editing after the fact and you are a quick-draw. 

3 minutes ago, dudacek said:

MVP of the WJC, generally 1st or 2nd ranked prospect outside the NHL in most lists in his post-draft year.

Or is it the “juniors” you are questioning because he didn’t play CHL? If so, “junior-age competition”

This is exactly it. There was never any meat on the bones - it was all hype from these list-makers. It's hard to put much stock in them when you see a guy like Baker, I believe Pronman, be so off base. Their analysis had him as a calder capable rookie - they have proven to be significantly off the mark. 

Mitts just doesn't have the data. 

Edited May 1, 2020 by Thorny

[Curt]

4 hours ago, Thorny said:

When did Mittelstadt dominate juniors?

High school hockey which is tough to evaluate, then 30 points in 34 NCAA games the year AFTER we drafted him. 

We all love/d Mittelstadt because he had a good 7 games stretch in an over-hyped one-off tournament the season after we drafted him. There were prospect analysts that followed things more in depth that were sounding the warning horns on him even as guys like Kris Baker were saying he was our best shot at the Calder the year both he and Dahlin were rookies. 

What we've seen is a slow, lazy player who I still have hope for but seemingly needs to completely revamp his strategy. 

He played a partial season in the USHL and was very productive.  He was very good for the USA Junior team at both the U18 and U20 level.

I agree that he hasn’t been quick enough or strong enough on the puck to play his game at the NHL level.  I don’t know that he is lazy, but I do think he needs to improve his body and probably adjust his game.

Edited May 2, 2020 by Curt

[GASabresIUFAN]

I find it very funny that someone would call Mitts slow and lazy when that couldn't be further from the truth.  The kid drives offense down the middle of the ice and goes to the net.  I watched as many games as I could when he was at Minn and he was a man alone on that team.  He literally had no other good forwards on his team.  The only forward to appear in the NHL besides Mitts is Rem Pitlick for 1 game.  Despite that he exhibited the hands and speed of a potential NHL player and the straight ahead game that works in the NHL.

His issue was and might still be adjusting to the speed of the NHL game and him not quite maturing into his body. He was also a pretty raw prospect when he got him.  He wasn't physically mature as illustrated by his pull ups..  That isn't unusual when drafting 18 year olds.   I get that Pronman and others over rated him and created false expectations for him and management forced him into the NHL.  Give him time to physically mature and we'll get the player we thought we drafted.

 

Edited May 2, 2020 by GASabresIUFAN

[Thorner]

7 hours ago, Curt said:

He played a partial season in the USHL and was very productive.  He was very good for the USA Junior team at both the U18 and U20 level.

I agree that he hasn’t been quick enough or strong enough on the puck to play his game at the NHL level.  I don’t know that he is lazy, but I do think he needs to improve his body and probably adjust his game.

Whether he was good and productive wasn't the point though, the point in question was that he dominated. 

He played a grand total of 26 USHL games. He had 32 points. This hardly screams "one of the top prospects in the world". 

He had two good junior tournaments, yes, one of which was a rather dominant WJC after being drafted - that 7 game tournament is his calling card. 

Edited May 2, 2020 by Thorny

[Curt]

1 hour ago, Thorny said:

Whether he was good and productive wasn't the point though, the point in question was that he dominated. 

He played a grand total of 26 USHL games. He had 32 points. This hardly screams "one of the top prospects in the world". 

He had two good junior tournaments, yes, one of which was a rather dominant WJC after being drafted - that 7 game tournament is his calling card. 

True. Dominate is a subjective term, but I agree with you.  I was just giving background information.

[sabremike]

On 5/1/2020 at 1:35 PM, Randall Flagg said:

 I don't have a gauge on the likelihood of this, but I think it's closer to Tage's likelihood (which I view as slim) 

YOU TAKE THAT BACK?

[nfreeman]

From Tim Graham today in the Athletic:
 

Quote

 

The Pegulas are unhappy with Botterill, but based on what I’ve heard, the novel coronavirus may have given Botterill another year to salvage the Sabres. Just telling you what the mood is now.

...

Whenever the NHL offseason begins, Botterill will have some flexibility to reconstruct the roster, with only $47 million committed to the 2020-21 salary cap. Of expiring contracts, the Sabres can have 12 unrestricted free agents and 15 restricted free agents.

...

I do believe getting to this point always was part of the Pegulas’ plan. Botterill almost didn’t last that long amid rising fan hatred and a series of public-relations disasters that made a change tempting.

 

 

https://theathletic.com/1816003/2020/05/15/the-satchel-jason-botterills-future-the-bills-outlook-for-2020-and-more/

 

[Radar]

He's safe for another season I think . I've always believed he would be. I think this team would have to completely transform itself to save him beyond that. A year from now he'll be gone short of a miracle. Next year would have to be a solid playoff team and I don't see it.

[Kruppstahl]

26 minutes ago, Radar said:

He's safe for another season I think . I've always believed he would be. I think this team would have to completely transform itself to save him beyond that. A year from now he'll be gone short of a miracle. Next year would have to be a solid playoff team and I don't see it.

It's tough suffering through Pegula's learning curve, isn't it?

Add to the fact that PSE operations seem to be operating under budgeting pressure just like in the good old days, and who knows...Botterill may be here for a while yet.  

He works cheap.

 

 

[Brawndo]

2 hours ago, nfreeman said:

From Tim Graham today in the Athletic:
 

 

https://theathletic.com/1816003/2020/05/15/the-satchel-jason-botterills-future-the-bills-outlook-for-2020-and-more/

 

Cool GMs desperate to save their jobs often make very good Personnel Decisions especially when they won’t be around to deal with the  Future ramifications. 

[Stoner]

If it was the Pegulas' plan to get to only $47 million committed to the cap, it does raise two questions at least. What was the rationale behind the plan, to cut costs or for some strategic reason (make the team better)? If it was for strategic reasons, is this another example of meddling in the GM's business?

[Marvin]

4 minutes ago, PASabreFan said:

If it was the Pegulas' plan to get to only $47 million committed to the cap, it does raise two questions at least. What was the rationale behind the plan, to cut costs or for some strategic reason (make the team better)? If it was for strategic reasons, is this another example of meddling in the GM's business?

Clearly, it was part of JNot's strategy to have about $30M free this off-season:

It was when a lot of contracts JBottom inherited or acquired would expire and the only unacceptable contract which he did not create was Okposo.

He has money for contracts for in-house RFAs and UFAs.

He also has money to acquire a big ticket item from outside to boot.

He has "his" coach broken in.

IMHO, his primary goal the last 4 years was to clear the decks from the GMTM years and build the foundation HIS way.  That doesn't excuse his performance and influence on the team's horrendous performance in the interim..

[dudacek]

3 hours ago, E4 ... Ke2 said:

Clearly, it was part of JNot's strategy to have about $30M free this off-season:

It was when a lot of contracts JBottom inherited or acquired would expire and the only unacceptable contract which he did not create was Okposo.

He has money for contracts for in-house RFAs and UFAs.

He also has money to acquire a big ticket item from outside to boot.

He has "his" coach broken in.

IMHO, his primary goal the last 4 years was to clear the decks from the GMTM years and build the foundation HIS way.  That doesn't excuse his performance and influence on the team's horrendous performance in the interim..

This exactly.

If Tage Thompson and Casey Mittelstadt were about to emerge as top 6 forwards, Carter Hutton had been a solid starter handing the torch to a legit #1 in Ullmark, Montour and Miller were playing like legit top four D, and some of Vesey, Sheary, Sobotka, Berglund, Johansson etc. had been more than filler, we’d be poised to make a big jump this summer.

The plan wasn’t bad, the player selection has been.

Edited May 15, 2020 by dudacek

[nfreeman]

3 hours ago, E4 ... Ke2 said:

Clearly, it was part of JNot's strategy to have about $30M free this off-season:

It was when a lot of contracts JBottom inherited or acquired would expire and the only unacceptable contract which he did not create was Okposo.

He has money for contracts for in-house RFAs and UFAs.

He also has money to acquire a big ticket item from outside to boot.

He has "his" coach broken in.

IMHO, his primary goal the last 4 years was to clear the decks from the GMTM years and build the foundation HIS way.  That doesn't excuse his performance and influence on the team's horrendous performance in the interim..

I too agree with this, and with @dudacek’s additional color, although JB has been here for 3 years, not 4.  

[Thorner]

7 hours ago, Radar said:

He's safe for another season I think . I've always believed he would be. I think this team would have to completely transform itself to save him beyond that. A year from now he'll be gone short of a miracle. Next year would have to be a solid playoff team and I don't see it.

Maybe. But as the post right before yours mentioned, the plan seemed to always be *this* coming year for the organization, that "big cap" year. Botterill almost didn't get it, they almost went back on that plan, but that was the original set up, and the virus ensured that plan would continue, and we'll never know what would have happened otherwise. 

Obviously we know public outcry/perception can factor in, but with that variable for the coming year undefined, I believe there's a strong chance, depending on how hampered GMs around the league are this off-season, that mitigating circumstances have not only guaranteed Botterill this coming year (the original plan), but that he could be afforded another 1 year bump back. 

There's a chance we aren't free of him until '22.

6 hours ago, PASabreFan said:

If it was the Pegulas' plan to get to only $47 million committed to the cap, it does raise two questions at least. What was the rationale behind the plan, to cut costs or for some strategic reason (make the team better)? If it was for strategic reasons, is this another example of meddling in the GM's business?

The rationale is simple: job security. Botterill sold them on the idea he could re-work this team this summer. 

Edited May 16, 2020 by Thorny