Why is Botterill still GM?

[Broken Ankles]

9 minutes ago, sabremike said:

The proximity to Southern Ontario didn't prevent the team from nearly relocating two different times (early 90's if the new arena wasn't built, early 2000's if Gollisano didn't step in and save us). And according to Paul Weiland the % of ticket holders from Canada is roughly 13% so that isn't as big as you think. And as for demographics I have seen numerous articles on cities on the decline and they always mention Buffalo. But even if I were to concede the point it isn't dying rapidly it is still the second smallest market in the NHL, just ahead of Winnipeg. So yeah...

Second smallest with the best ratings In the US. 

https://www.sportsbusinessdaily.com/Journal/Issues/2019/04/29/Media/NHL-ratings.aspx

[Eleven]

14 minutes ago, sabremike said:

according to Paul Weiland the % of ticket holders from Canada is roughly 13%

That's actually a pretty good percentage.  What do you think the percentage would be from any suburb?   East Aurora, do you think that's 13%?  Cheektowaga?  Tonawanda?  Even Amherst or Clarence?  13% from a certain region is huge.

[Taro T]

14 minutes ago, Eleven said:

That's actually a pretty good percentage.  What do you think the percentage would be from any suburb?   East Aurora, do you think that's 13%?  Cheektowaga?  Tonawanda?  Even Amherst or Clarence?  13% from a certain region is huge.

And that's with limited televised games available on the NP.  Since they went away from showing the games on ota TV, it has been difficult to watch the games on TV.  If all they can watch is the friggin' Loafs, it's tough to grow the fanbase there.

[#freejame]

4 hours ago, Broken Ankles said:

Are you a Demographer whalermike?  Buffalo has lost roughly 2% of its population since the last census of 2010.  Too many cities in high tax states to name losing population.   The proximity to Southern Ontario guarantees the subsistence of the organization. 

FTFY. It’s not a Rust Belt issue, it’s a tax thing. 

[SwampD]

23 minutes ago, #freejame said:

FTFY. It’s not a Rust Belt issue, it’s a tax thing. 

Says the guy in the #12 receiver state of federal funds. It's not a tax thing.

Edited April 27, 2020 by SwampD

[CallawaySabres]

It had already started before the virus but now, I am starting to think this team and my likeness for it is dying a little bit more every single day. I have no interest in the hockey season coming back anytime soon

[Broken Ankles]

3 hours ago, #freejame said:

FTFY. It’s not a Rust Belt issue, it’s a tax thing. 

And they are not related? The cities with declines in population are from states like NY, OH, Il, WV, PA and MI.  All have had declining manufacturing with a self reliance on local municipalities for jobs.   These states rank the highest in the Nation for local jobs per capita.  Lowered property taxes coupled with higher cost for services result in higher local/state taxes to pay for them.  Increased poverty levels with below average services leads to Population decline.   High taxes of course drives away private business from growing/staying.  It’s a vicious cycle.  If it’s just a tax thing why has California and Hawaii (13% and 11% respectively) not seen similar declines? 
  I took the advice of Horace Greeley about 24 years ago and I’m much better off for it.  Go West young man. 

[#freejame]

9 hours ago, SwampD said:

Says the guy in the #12 receiver state of federal funds. It's not a tax thing.

I’m not sure what you’re implying here. I left NY, and won’t return to NY,  because the taxation is ridiculous. People leaving high tax states for low tax states isn’t an opinion, it’s a fact. I added the below picture, but if you look at the most recent data it’s even more extreme. Not to mention a simple google search would have shown you it most certainly is a tax thing. 
 

[#freejame]

6 hours ago, Broken Ankles said:

And they are not related? The cities with declines in population are from states like NY, OH, Il, WV, PA and MI.  All have had declining manufacturing with a self reliance on local municipalities for jobs.   These states rank the highest in the Nation for local jobs per capita.  Lowered property taxes coupled with higher cost for services result in higher local/state taxes to pay for them.  Increased poverty levels with below average services leads to Population decline.   High taxes of course drives away private business from growing/staying.  It’s a vicious cycle.  If it’s just a tax thing why has California and Hawaii (13% and 11% respectively) not seen similar declines? 
  I took the advice of Horace Greeley about 24 years ago and I’m much better off for it.  Go West young man. 

uhhh...they have. I don’t know why so many are taking this as if it’s my opinion when it’s a pretty easily verifiable fact. 

[Broken Ankles]

2 hours ago, #freejame said:

uhhh...they have. I don’t know why so many are taking this as if it’s my opinion when it’s a pretty easily verifiable fact. 

You can't be serious with this graphic right?  This is a single year between 2016 and 2017?   This is the SS equivalent to taking a Corsi rating for one year to prove a player  is better than what his performance in points bears out.  California has gained net population between 2010-2019, and was up between 2018 and 2019.  Also note we have more than twice the population of NY and 4* of Illinois, so size does matter....when your comparing net loss by states.   And for record, not saying that businesses are not leaving CA for TX either.  I see it all too often.   I'm just saying if taxes/income rates were the single most important element in population decline, the results would be more pronounced. 

[#freejame]

3 hours ago, Broken Ankles said:

You can't be serious with this graphic right?  This is a single year between 2016 and 2017?   This is the SS equivalent to taking a Corsi rating for one year to prove a player  is better than what his performance in points bears out.  California has gained net population between 2010-2019, and was up between 2018 and 2019.  Also note we have more than twice the population of NY and 4* of Illinois, so size does matter....when your comparing net loss by states.   And for record, not saying that businesses are not leaving CA for TX either.  I see it all too often.   I'm just saying if taxes/income rates were the single most important element in population decline, the results would be more pronounced. 

Like in the graph directly above for a ten year period showing California lost more personal income than any other state but New York? Seriously, just google it. No need to take my word when there’s hard, concrete evidence.

[Thorner]

On 4/22/2020 at 12:40 PM, Randall Flagg said:

Interesting that Tim Graham says, over and over, that the internal worries for Jason are based on him "lacking a plan." That we were spending over the cap in real dollars to be so bad signifies to them a lack of a plan.

The SS consensus has been that there is a well-defined plan that's pretty easy to see, and the execution has been bad, leading to things like spending a bunch of money for a bad team. 

I feel like the latter is more damning of the GM than the former, in saying that he's bad at the functional part of his job versus just not having an optimal checklist, which he would in principle be competent at if he had. I'd be quicker to fire the second guy than the first. So I do think Jason gets another kick at the can

This probably doesn't make sense, I'm just going stir-crazy over here don't mind me

 

On 4/22/2020 at 1:10 PM, dudacek said:

I wondered about that as well.

Could it be an abbreviated statement? As in “he doesn’t appear to have a plan to fill the hole in centre ice” or “I don’t see a plan to effectively replace/upgrade Sobotka” or “was there no plan to maximize the glut of defenceman?” Or “what kind of plan involves spending $90 million in real money to miss the playoffs?”

Less “no plan” and more “no follow through on the plan”

We know Terry pays attention and asks questions. Maybe not seeing effective answers to those questions play out over the course of the season translates as “no plan.”

I believe there's more to it as well. I doubt they think he literally has no plan, rather, they haven't seen evidence of where "winning" fits into that plan. 

Edited April 30, 2020 by Thorny

[Thorner]

On 4/22/2020 at 1:37 PM, SDS said:

What does a "plan" even mean? Do people think he doesn't recognize the need for another center? His plan could be to get a very good center. Do people think a plan is getting player X from team Y by doing Z to be a plan? Because that takes two to tango. 

Not having a plan seems to be synonymous with not knowing where the weak spots are.

Having a plan and not being able to execute it, may or may not be an indictment of him. One would have to say more than "you figure it out" if he can't turn chicken ***** to chicken salad.

I actually do believe he thinks our C needs are way less than what basically everyone else thinks. There's potential evidence of this, and not just trading ROR and failing to replace him in 2 years (which I'd argue is evidence enough). 

His talk of expecting more from Vesey and our other *15 goal man* left shot wingers. He gave Skinner 9 million and is apparently good with putting him on his own line. It looks like he was expecting Skinner to elevate his line to the tune of not needing a true 2C. He's expecting his wingers to elevate his mediocre centres.

- - - 

IMO It's absolutely appropriate to say "you figure it out", when it's been 3 years, and that's exactly what he is being paid to do. Not to "succeed if possible", but to succeed. It's not even like he just hasn't brought his plan to full fruition, but significantly improved the team. We've been at/near the bottom of the league since he took over. If the expectation isn't simply the proper execution of his plan, shouldn't it at least be the partial execution of his plan? He's failed across the board.

Edited May 1, 2020 by Thorny

[Brawndo]

GMTM passed on the Hall Trade. I wonder what the other proposed details were? 

[dudacek]

I’m OK if Botts turned down a Risto for Cody Glass trade.

Value might be OK if we’re looking for futures, but I’ve been pretty consistent that I’m only willing to move Risto in a deal that fixes our forwards.

Plus he has almost identical pedigree to Casey Mittelstadt and has done less since being drafted.

Edited May 1, 2020 by dudacek

[LGR4GM]

8 hours ago, dudacek said:

I’m OK if Botts turned down a Risto for Cody Glass trade.

Value might be OK if we’re looking for futures, but I’ve been pretty consistent that I’m only willing to move Risto in a deal that fixes our forwards.

Plus he has almost identical pedigree to Casey Mittelstadt and has done less since being drafted.

He did WHAT!?!?!?!

Holy hell fire him. 

[Eleven]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

He did WHAT!?!?!?!

Holy hell fire him. 

It's not like Cody Glass was going to change the team's fortunes this season.  He's still a prospect, and like @dudacek says, he is comparable to Mittelstadt.

I don't mind getting real value for Ristolainen, but Glass isn't it.  And I certainly don't mind firing Botterill, but this isn't the reason.

[LGR4GM]

Do not agree that Glass = Mitts. 

There is only one move that can save Botterill in my eyes now... Cirelli. 

Edited May 1, 2020 by LGR4GM

[dudacek]

4 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Do not agree that Glass = Mitts.

Why?

Similar age, position, size, talent level and draft position. They've both dominated as juniors, been effective in the AHL and their NHL production last year was virtually identical.

[Randall Flagg]

24 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Why?

Similar age, position, size, talent level and draft position. They've both dominated as juniors, been effective in the AHL and their NHL production last year was virtually identical.

This analysis post-2018/19 would say the same thing about Casey and Robert Thomas, but anyone watching the two regularly at the time would have said it's foolish to classify them the same caliber of player/prospect/asset. 

I haven't watched Cody Glass at all, so I'm not saying I know he's better or worse than Casey, but it's entirely possible that Liger has and sees something notable, even if it hasn't manifested in counting stats yet.

 

Edited May 1, 2020 by Randall Flagg

[Randall Flagg]

What I do know is that Casey's NHL film while producing ~10 goals and ~30 points was pretty freaking bad, and Thomas' with the same production was exciting. Maybe Glass has good film too

[dudacek]

6 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

I haven't watched Cody Glass at all, so I'm not saying I know he's better or worse than Casey, but it's entirely possible that Liger has and sees something notable, even if it hasn't manifested in counting stats yet.

 

That’s why I’m asking the question. ? LGR loves to deal in absolutes, but he knows his prospects.

Related question for the man who’s never been high on Casey: if/when you watched him dominate as a junior did you see him do things that made you say “he’ll never get away with that as a pro.”

[Randall Flagg]

17 minutes ago, dudacek said:

 the man who’s never been high on Casey:

Dis me? 

[LGR4GM]

Cody Glass could be Mitts. I get that. I just see more of a Cozens level player. From what I saw of him this past year, you could tell the speed of the game was beyond him. He skates well, but he wasn't processing the NHL at game speed. Is that a concern, yes. Could he not make it, also yes. I just like his overall skillset more than Mitts, hence my reaction. As usual, I should have written a post as opposed to just posting a reaction. 

[LGR4GM]

In short, Glass skates better, shoots better, and I think has a more natural motor than Casey Mittelstadt. 

That being said, I hope another year of AHL action gets Mitts up to speed.