Why is Botterill still GM?

[triumph_communes]

11 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Do you give Botterill credit for acquiring Dahlin?

Are any of his prospects aside from Dahlin in the NHL? Were they better choices than what any informed Sabrespacer would have picked in the same spots?

Are Jokiharju and Kahun foundational pieces or just future solid NHLers? Is Montour?

Given the choice between Jeff Skinner and his $9 million contract or a 2nd-round pick right now, how many GMs would take Skinner?

 

I thought straws were banned in your crazy locale. Why you grasping for some?

[dudacek]

20 minutes ago, triumph_communes said:

I thought straws were banned in your crazy locale. Why you grasping for some?

You seem to typically retreat here when confronted by any rational arguments about Botterill's lack of job performance: red herrings and question avoidance.

Talk to me about Botterill's body of work and why this team shouldn't be further ahead after three seasons. Especially, given the fact it had Ryan O'Reilly, Evander Kane, Sam Reinhart, Rasmus Ristolainen and Jack Eichel to start with and was handed Rasmus Dahlin on a silver platter.

[PerreaultForever]

Sick of the unfair moderation of the board so I'm out.

Last words, Botterill is an idiot GM and the team is doomed the way Pegula runs it. Good luck with all that. I'm sure it'll give the little clique that runs this place years of bitching and whining to compensate for the constant losing.

Bye. 

[freester]

6 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Besides Skinner, Dahlin, Jokiharju, Montour, and now probably Kahun.  It's also likely that Mitts and Cozens become core pieces over the next two seasons and UPL soon after.

DR drafted Girgensons, Risto, McCabe, Ullmark. and acquired Larsson

TM's Contribution?  Reinhart (a 2nd over all pick he missed on who is arguably the 8th best player from that draft class), Eichel, and Okposo.  He also gets credit for drafting Olofsson, but it was JBot who brought him to NA and signed him to his ELC.

UPL and Mitts have proven nothing. UPL is just as likely to end up as a Carter Hutton as he is a Hasek. Neither has dominated in AHL or even looked very good. Hopefully they both have great years in Rochester next year.  Montour is a. mediocre defenseman not worth a first round pick.  Skinner is the worst contract in the league. Cozens could be great or another Mitts, we don’t know. Botteril deserves no credit for VO but I am intrigued by Kahun. Kahun has looked good in the short period I’ve seen him.  
 

JBOT should be fired but I think due to shortened season he is kept for another year to wreck further havoc on the organization. I just hope he is not permitted to give out long term big money contracts or trade away key pieces.  

[#freejame]

4 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

Sick of the unfair moderation of the board so I'm out.

Last words, Botterill is an idiot GM and the team is doomed the way Pegula runs it. Good luck with all that. I'm sure it'll give the little clique that runs this place years of bitching and whining to compensate for the constant losing.

Bye. 

This is something that’s always been a little crazy to me. I’m not part of the “inner circle” you talked about in your other post. I’m certainly not in any cliques here. My user name literally goes against the moderators past actions. I haven’t had any trouble with any of the moderators and have never been warned, even though I’ve been in many different arguments on many different topics.  So where do you think the disconnect is? Do you believe I’m favored or do you think maybe you poorly express yourself and it creates conflict? 

[triumph_communes]

8 hours ago, dudacek said:

You seem to typically retreat here when confronted by any rational arguments about Botterill's lack of job performance: red herrings and question avoidance.

Talk to me about Botterill's body of work and why this team shouldn't be further ahead after three seasons. Especially, given the fact it had Ryan O'Reilly, Evander Kane, Sam Reinhart, Rasmus Ristolainen and Jack Eichel to start with and was handed Rasmus Dahlin on a silver platter.

You always ignore that TM missed on every damn draft pick except a 7th round gamble.  Let's not forget the 2nd rounders used on Fasching.. the third rounders used on Vesey (that didn't even get the player) or Dan Bylsma....   Then use Evander freaking Kane as positive evidence?  San Jose is loving that stud piece..  You then list Ristolainen who was a tire-fire under Murray's coaches and tenure, largely because he was being relief upon as a #1 on a team with zero defensive depth because of the awful GM job, and two 2OA picks...  You say I'm avoiding the response, but your case doesn't warrant one it's built on nothing but emotional hatred that has built up too much cognitive dissonance for you to think about the situation.

 

Go compare any game over the last five years with the games this season.  Defense is no longer a problem.  We don't run around our own zone all game lost, scoring on random breakaways and stealing wins from special teams.  They lost half their top-6 and starting goaltender and went from in-the-race to out of it, and had really bad goaltending from guys who were good last season at the start of the season put them behind.  Now we run around the offensive zone (and don't quite have the talent to score consistently, though I agree to anyone who says our players are allergic to the front of the net) and the softies the third-string goalies are letting in kill the games.  The games are actually entertaining now despite the results.  I don't fall asleep in the middle of them anymore.

 

But here we come to the message board where people can't blame the players for what they do on the ice and have to blame the guy 'at the top' with some of the simplest minded thought process possible.  Then try to compare the GM trades a guy who had like 5 excess 1st round picks to acquire with a guy who had no firsts, his seconds spent, zero depth in the pipeline, and a travesty of a roster to begin with?

Edited March 23, 2020 by triumph_communes

[nfreeman]

2 minutes ago, triumph_communes said:

You always ignore that TM missed on every damn draft pick except a 7th round gamble.  Let's not forget the 2nd rounders used on Fasching.. the third rounders used on Vesey (that didn't even get the player) or Dan Bylsma....   Then use Evander freaking Kane as positive evidence?  San Jose is loving that stud piece..  You then list Ristolainen who was a tire-fire under Murray's coaches and tenure, largely because he was being relief upon as a #1 on a team with zero defensive depth because of the awful GM job, and two 2OA picks...  You say I'm avoiding the response, but your case doesn't warrant one it's built on nothing but emotional hatred that has built up too much cognitive dissonance for you to think about the situation.

This post is about GMTM.

Where is your response to @dudacek about the specifics as to the good, if any, that JB has done and why he deserves to stay?

Again:  he took over an undeniably flawed team from GMTM that finished with 78 pts and, after 3 years, delivered a team pacing for...80 pts.

To me it's crystal clear that this isn't remotely good enough.

What is your specific response as to why it is good enough?

[triumph_communes]

2 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

This post is about GMTM.

Where is your response to @dudacek about the specifics as to the good, if any, that JB has done and why he deserves to stay?

Again:  he took over an undeniably flawed team from GMTM that finished with 78 pts and, after 3 years, delivered a team pacing for...80 pts.

To me it's crystal clear that this isn't remotely good enough.

What is your specific response as to why it is good enough?

You can't properly assess Botterill without giving him the proper frame of reference-- that GMTM had the team in shambles before taking over.  Lucking their way to 78 points on special teams was them overperforming.

 

A team that rode on special teams luck to 78 points (it's what, 50 points if they had average special teams performance?), that also had no prospects making the NHL, no depth, bad cap with multiple anchor contracts (Ennis, Moulson, Okposo, lol) that was benching star players for being late to meetings because of GM's decree, alcoholism running rampant, the worst fancy stats analytics has ever recorded, a losing minor league, etc etc Oh, and no trade/etc. was going to fix this situation the following season-- they could have mortgaged the future for another 10 points in the standings (being generous there, they were more likely to regress to average special teams).

Cap freedom.  A prospect system, and a good one at that.  Depth.  Ability to handle expansion draft despite stars not being ELC protected.   Team that isn't running around their zone.  That is underperformin after losing starting goalie, hslf of top-6, star player playing injured, etc.  Oh, and with an off-season that the team will ONLY improve after, even if no moves are made.

 

But sure, reduce everything to points and you're right-- it's barely better 3 years in.  How many teams with President's trophies, the fancy reward for points, actually end up winning the cup?  Hint:  not many.  Wouldn't die on that hill if I were you.

[freester]

7 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

Sick of the unfair moderation of the board so I'm out.

Last words, Botterill is an idiot GM and the team is doomed the way Pegula runs it. Good luck with all that. I'm sure it'll give the little clique that runs this place years of bitching and whining to compensate for the constant losing.

Bye. 

just curious what is your particular issue with the moderation on this board? 

[LGR4GM]

1 hour ago, triumph_communes said:

You can't properly assess Botterill without giving him the proper frame of reference-- that GMTM had the team in shambles before taking over.  Lucking their way to 78 points on special teams was them overperforming.

 

A team that rode on special teams luck to 78 points (it's what, 50 points if they had average special teams performance?), that also had no prospects making the NHL, no depth, bad cap with multiple anchor contracts (Ennis, Moulson, Okposo, lol) that was benching star players for being late to meetings because of GM's decree, alcoholism running rampant, the worst fancy stats analytics has ever recorded, a losing minor league, etc etc Oh, and no trade/etc. was going to fix this situation the following season-- they could have mortgaged the future for another 10 points in the standings (being generous there, they were more likely to regress to average special teams).

Cap freedom.  A prospect system, and a good one at that.  Depth.  Ability to handle expansion draft despite stars not being ELC protected.   Team that isn't running around their zone.  That is underperformin after losing starting goalie, hslf of top-6, star player playing injured, etc.  Oh, and with an off-season that the team will ONLY improve after, even if no moves are made.

 

But sure, reduce everything to points and you're right-- it's barely better 3 years in.  How many teams with President's trophies, the fancy reward for points, actually end up winning the cup?  Hint:  not many.  Wouldn't die on that hill if I were you.

Well this is a crock of $#!t. TIMES 2

And further how many teams that don't make the playoffs, win the Stanley Cup. Keep being a Botterill apologist. I note you never want to bring up ROR when you talk about how good we have it under Botts. A guy dumb enough to trade Scandella for Frolik.

[LGR4GM]

On 3/20/2020 at 12:39 PM, LGR4GM said:

The guy is terrible. Why is he still here? Fire him this minute and be done with it. 

 

I mean look at this. Botterill's first year was awful, then his second year was basically on par with GMTM and this year again, he is treading water while making excuses. He continually brings in mediocre forwards who do not create offense and we have sen that for 3 years. We see it in this chart. This team whines about not finishing chances when the truth is they don't create enough chances. The guy is a lame duck gm. 

Edited March 23, 2020 by LGR4GM

[dudacek]

1 hour ago, triumph_communes said:

You always ignore that TM missed on every damn draft pick except a 7th round gamble.  Let's not forget the 2nd rounders used on Fasching.. the third rounders used on Vesey (that didn't even get the player) or Dan Bylsma....   Then use Evander freaking Kane as positive evidence?  San Jose is loving that stud piece..  You then list Ristolainen who was a tire-fire under Murray's coaches and tenure, largely because he was being relief upon as a #1 on a team with zero defensive depth because of the awful GM job, and two 2OA picks...  You say I'm avoiding the response, but your case doesn't warrant one it's built on nothing but emotional hatred that has built up too much cognitive dissonance for you to think about the situation.

 

Go compare any game over the last five years with the games this season.  Defense is no longer a problem.  We don't run around our own zone all game lost, scoring on random breakaways and stealing wins from special teams.  They lost half their top-6 and starting goaltender and went from in-the-race to out of it, and had really bad goaltending from guys who were good last season at the start of the season put them behind.  Now we run around the offensive zone (and don't quite have the talent to score consistently, though I agree to anyone who says our players are allergic to the front of the net) and the softies the third-string goalies are letting in kill the games.  The games are actually entertaining now despite the results.  I don't fall asleep in the middle of them anymore.

 

But here we come to the message board where people can't blame the players for what they do on the ice and have to blame the guy 'at the top' with some of the simplest minded thought process possible.  Then try to compare the GM trades a guy who had like 5 excess 1st round picks to acquire with a guy who had no firsts, his seconds spent, zero depth in the pipeline, and a travesty of a roster to begin with?

I think you must be confusing me with some other poster. I have no anger towards Botterill. On the contrary, I see the logic in his plan, and would prefer to keep some stability in the organization.

Its just that his positives are outweighed by his inability to acquire talent.

My case is built on an analysis of the two dozen or so moves Botterill has made since taking over the team, a comparison to what other GMs (not cherry-picked, all of them) have done over the same time period and the results of the ice.

Your second post makes some points I agree with. But it is built on two faulty premises: the team he acquired was a complete and utter disaster, and that it would have been extremely difficult for any GM to make any more progress than has been made.

Botterill has done some good things. But not enough of them. You say the players aren’t performing. Those are his players.

[triumph_communes]

10 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I think you must be confusing me with some other poster. I have no anger towards Botterill. On the contrary, I see the logic in his plan, and would prefer to keep some stability in the organization.

Its just that his positives are outweighed by his inability to acquire talent.

My case is built on an analysis of the two dozen or so moves Botterill has made since taking over the team, a comparison to what other GMs (not cherry-picked, all of them) have done over the same time period and the results of the ice.

Your second post makes some points I agree with. But it is built on two faulty premises: the team he acquired was a complete and utter disaster, and that it would have been extremely difficult for any GM to make any more progress than has been made.

Botterill has done some good things. But not enough of them. You say the players aren’t performing. Those are his players.

Only team in the league doing a better job acquiring talent is Colorado

 

Theyre also millennial main attraction living spot #1 which helps with signing UFA. 
 

They also traded with teams like Toronto— how well would a Risto for Kadri trade have gone with our fans?

 

The only ‘try to acquire talent’ trades I’ve seen from Botterill are for: Thompson, Montour, Jokiharju, and Kahun.  Everything else either fell into his lap or were quite simply filler moves to avoid long-term cap hell. 
 

Thompson lost an entire season after his AHL redemption arc. It’s really unfair to make any conclusion on him yet.
 

Montour is good on his strong side. Replacement level when he plays his off hand. They gotta get him back on his strong side. Better than Guhle ever will he though. 
 

The Jokiharju trade is one of the most lopsided deals we’ve seen this decade.  Woo

 

Kahun is a gem. Everything Sheary was supposed to be, and we got him for Sheary.  Taking on that cap from the Penguins for future considerations paid off. He’s a great piece for the future. 
 

Y’all can say ‘three years’, but this is the first season where I start to put the onus on Botterill for things- and we were looking much improved and the injuries really did a number on us. 

Edited March 23, 2020 by triumph_communes

[dudacek]

Just now, triumph_communes said:

Only team in the league doing a better job acquiring talent is Colorado

That’s a pretty huge statement.How would you support it?

I see Montour and Skinner and Hutton in, O’Reilly and Kane and Lehner out.

I see a lot of space fillers like Sheary and Vesey and a lot of complete wastes like Frolik and Sobotka.

You must be putting a lot of weight on unproven pieces like Joki and Casey. Why do you think they are better than other teams similar pieces?

[triumph_communes]

25 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I mean look at this. Botterill's first year was awful, then his second year was basically on par with GMTM and this year again, he is treading water while making excuses. He continually brings in mediocre forwards who do not create offense and we have sen that for 3 years. We see it in this chart. This team whines about not finishing chances when the truth is they don't create enough chances. The guy is a lame duck gm. 

I remember when Carolina won the cup last year and the Wild won the cup a few years back

 

Maybe posting models that don’t correlate strongly with playoff performance is bad statistical analysis. 

[triumph_communes]

13 minutes ago, dudacek said:

That’s a pretty huge statement.How would you support it?

I see Montour and Skinner and Hutton in, O’Reilly and Kane and Lehner out.

I see a lot of space fillers like Sheary and Vesey and a lot of complete wastes like Frolik and Sobotka.

You must be putting a lot of weight on unproven pieces like Joki and Casey. Why do you think they are better than other teams similar pieces?

Name me another team that’s done better at acquiring players over the last few years. Nobody has come close in quantity/quality except Toronto— and hows that working for them? 
 

Lehner was an untreated alcoholic that had no possible future on this team. Murray spent a first round pick to get a goalie who refused to do shootouts and was so miserable in Buffalo he was left to tackle on the worst vices on his own until the new GM got him into rehab. You see that as Botterill’s fault?

In what world was Buffalo ever going to re sign an enigma like Evander Kane?  Even if we were winning he was gone.  We gained by his subtraction.  Eichel became a top player when Kane stopped ruining all zone possession.

ROR being an ownership thing couldn’t be more obvious. Guess you get to live on the truth never coming out. 
 

Hutton was actually good last season. This seasons epic collapse is unprecedented. Also, find me a middling team who survives losing their starting goaltender?  Teams riding hot goaltenders is the largest correlation with playoffs and playoff success (or coaching success).  And all those goalies were the greatest thing since buttered bread until they suddenly weren’t. Recent examples: Quick, Crawford, Murray.  No team is immune to sudden goalie overthink into stink collapse syndrome.
 

I never mentioned Mittelstadt, but it’s not like the other draft picks shortly after him are anything better even at this point in time.  I’m not sure what more Jokiharju has to do to prove it?  Yeah he’s had a few bad games, but he’s also a teenager that has way overperformed all his peers at the same age.  even Dahlin as far as the defensive side goes. 

Edited March 23, 2020 by triumph_communes

[GASabresIUFAN]

The criticisms of Jbot are valid.  The team is only marginally better in the standings then the one he inherited. He has failed to replace ROR and therefore has failed to build a team with a decent offense.  He has made some bad moves such as Scandella for Frolik, but has also made some excellent moves such as Skinner for Pu, Jokiharju for Nylander, Kahun for Sheary and Erod, Scandella and Pommers for Ennis and Foligno.

Many of his UFA signings have failed, although the first year, I personally feel he tanked the team,.

However, he has completely retooled the defense from the crap TM left him (Dahlin, Montour, Miller and Jokiharju in with Bogo, Franson, Kulikov, Gorges out) and the team is better for it.

What the critics fail to acknowledge is that there was literally nothing in the system from which to supplement the roster.  Jbot was nearly starting from scratch.  The best and only legit prospects in Rochester were the marginal Nylander and Guhle who both are AAAA players.  3 years later Guhle is still bouncing back and forth from the AHL and Nylander is a depth forward for the Blackhawks.  From 3 years of drafting for TM starting 6 years ago, the Sabres only have 3 players and 2 were 2nd overall picks.  If Asplund somehow becomes a full-time NHL player (3 pts in 29 NHL games isn't a great start) we'll have a 4th player.  To date from 25 draft picks, TM managed to find only 5 NHL players including Nylander (who Jbot wisely converted into Jokiharju) and Lemieux.  If you want to know why we have no depth, look no further then TM's drafting.

It's funny but someone here actually criticized Jbot for not finding NHL players immediately from his draft choices, except Dahlin.  Really?  He has had 3 draft classes and 4 players are currently playing Pro hockey in Dahlin, Mitts, Bryson and UPL (two 1st rd picks, 1 2nd and a 4th rd pick).  That is a very unreasonable criticism.  As we have seen with the development of guys like Johansson or Olofsson it can take 5-6 years for some of these guys to reach their potential.  That said don't be surprised when we wake up next fall and Cozens and Mitts join Dahlin in the NHL and Rochester has UPL, Pekar, Bryson, Davidsson, and possibly Weissbach and Laaksonnen. 

The critics say well he had ROR, Jack and Sam (who we have a whole thread discussing trading him).  Correct he did, but who else on that roster was thought to be a guaranteed core piece?  Kane was walking as soon as his contract was up.  This board has discussed and wanted nearly every other holdover from TM's last team gone including, Bogo, Moulson, Erod, Lehner, McCabe, Risto, Larry, and Girgensons gone.  Jbot has obligated and moved on from many of them, but the 4 he kept he has right to keep them.   

So the question going forward is this franchise heading in the right direction? When Jbot got here this team was dead and had no future. The defense was slow and ineffective, the No.1 goalie had mental health issues, the pipeline was nearly void of talent except VO who was still in Europe, Rochester was a celler dweller annually, the Sabres were in cap hell and all he really had at forward was ROR, Jack and Sam.

I've argued and will continue to believe that the entire organization is better now then 3 years.  We have a winning program in Roch, a much much deeper pipeline with potential top end players, our NHL defense is vastly improved, and at forward we have 4 top 6 forwards with some potentially very good middle six forwards like Kahun and Cozens.  We also have cap space to work with.  This team has a future.  We are really just a couple of moves, like a 2C from being a playoff team.  That wasn't the case 3 years ago.  

Therefore I think Jbot deserves one more year to see if he can get his vision on the ice at the NHL level.  I think he's close, but I also understand the critics who say that he traded ROR and hasn't replaced him for two years, which is an error that deserves to get him fired. 

I think the Pegula's agree with me however.  

[LGR4GM]

21 minutes ago, triumph_communes said:

I remember when Carolina won the cup last year and the Wild won the cup a few years back

 

Maybe posting models that don’t correlate strongly with playoff performance is bad statistical analysis. 

You don't understand how correlation works if this is your response

3 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

The criticisms of Jbot are valid.  The team is only marginally better in the standings then the one he inherited. He has failed to replace ROR and therefore has failed to build a team with a decent offense.  He has made some bad moves such as Scandella for Frolik, but has also made some excellent moves such as Skinner for Pu, Jokiharju for Nylander, Kahun for Sheary and Erod, Scandella and Pommers for Ennis and Foligno.

Many of his UFA signings have failed, although the first year, I personally feel he tanked the team,.

However, he has completely retooled the defense from the crap TM left him (Dahlin, Montour, Miller and Jokiharju in with Bogo, Franson, Kulikov, Gorges out) and the team is better for it.

What the critics fail to acknowledge is that there was literally nothing in the system from which to supplement the roster.  Jbot was nearly starting from scratch.  The best and only legit prospects in Rochester were the marginal Nylander and Guhle who both are AAAA players.  3 years later Guhle is still bouncing back and forth from the AHL and Nylander is a depth forward for the Blackhawks.  From 3 years of drafting for TM starting 6 years ago, the Sabres only have 3 players and 2 were 2nd overall picks.  If Asplund somehow becomes a full-time NHL player (3 pts in 29 NHL games isn't a great start) we'll have a 4th player.  To date from 25 draft picks, TM managed to find only 5 NHL players including Nylander (who Jbot wisely converted into Jokiharju) and Lemieux.  If you want to know why we have no depth, look no further then TM's drafting.

It's funny but someone here actually criticized Jbot for not finding NHL players immediately from his draft choices, except Dahlin.  Really?  He has had 3 draft classes and 4 players are currently playing Pro hockey in Dahlin, Mitts, Bryson and UPL (two 1st rd picks, 1 2nd and a 4th rd pick).  That is a very unreasonable criticism.  As we have seen with the development of guys like Johansson or Olofsson it can take 5-6 years for some of these guys to reach their potential.  That said don't be surprised when we wake up next fall and Cozens and Mitts join Dahlin in the NHL and Rochester has UPL, Pekar, Bryson, Davidsson, and possibly Weissbach and Laaksonnen. 

 

I got bad news for you about that prospect pool. It has 1 high end forward.

Keep telling me how good our defense is though. I love hearing that while I watch be one of the worst NHL teams at generating scoring chances or shots.

Edited March 23, 2020 by LGR4GM

[GASabresIUFAN]

7 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

 

I got bad news for you about that prospect pool. It has 1 high end forward.

And?  We have 4 top 6 forwards locked up, how many more do we need?  We have a top line, we need to complete the middle 6.  With Kahun, Cozens, Mitts, and Thompson, we have good candidates for the middle six in the system. Unlike others here, I'm not willing to write off guys who are former 1st rd picks who are 21 and 22 years old.  Now add guys like Weissbach, Routsalainen and if they sign the kid from Finland, plus whomever we draft this year, we have plenty of additional candidates for the middle six in the near future.  

@dudacek you said you don't believe that Jokiharju is a core piece.  I disagree.  Nik Hjalmarsson was a core piece of the great Hawks teams and I think Jokiharju is that kind of player for us.  

[dudacek]

After reading the above, it feels like the case for Botterill amounts to:

• The cultural mess has been cleaned up
• The salary cap is well in hand
• The kids are going to be great
• Most of the moves of the past three years don’t matter because they were always intended to be filler.

I’d tend to agree with the first two points with caveats of the culture being precarious if wins don’t come and Skinner’s deal so far looking like a huge mistake.

Three is not impossible, but you have to squint really hard through rosy lenses. And if four is real, it shows unforgivable hubris on the part of the GM. And if it is not real, it shows an unacceptably poor judgement of talent.

Hope you guys are right, but your case seems built far more on faith than results.

(I’m not going to touch the undercurrent of ‘he’s better than Murray’ that runs through it. That’s like saying Sheary is better than Brian Flynn. It might be true, but it doesn’t really matter.)

11 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

.  

@dudacek you said you don't believe that Jokiharju is a core piece.  I disagree.  Nik Hjalmarsson was a core piece of the great Hawks teams and I think Jokiharju is that kind of player for us.  

I hope Joki becomes a core piece and I think he could.

He isn’t yet and none of us know that he will be.

[LGR4GM]

15 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

And?  We have 4 top 6 forwards locked up, how many more do we need?  We have a top line, we need to complete the middle 6.  With Kahun, Cozens, Mitts, and Thompson, we have good candidates for the middle six in the system. Unlike others here, I'm not willing to write off guys who are former 1st rd picks who are 21 and 22 years old.  Now add guys like Weissbach, Routsalainen and if they sign the kid from Finland, plus whomever we draft this year, we have plenty of additional candidates for the middle six in the near future.  

@dudacek you said you don't believe that Jokiharju is a core piece.  I disagree.  Nik Hjalmarsson was a core piece of the great Hawks teams and I think Jokiharju is that kind of player for us.  

Lol. In one post you talk about depth in then here imply we don't need that. What if Olofsson gets hurt, what if a top 6 forward was in the middle six because we had enough depth? It isn't about just having 6, it is about pushing everything else down and in a lot of cases out. You aren't doing that by adding Cozens and .... no one. 

[triumph_communes]

Can we stop pushing the lie that Botterill hasn’t replaced ROR’s offense? In GMTMs last season they scored 199 goals in 82 games. 60 games in this season they’re at 193.

As our defensive zone turnarounds has improved, our standards have shifted. Good thing, but Rome also wasn’t built in a day. 

38 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

You don't understand how correlation works if this is your response

What’s the Rsq and p-value for xGF vs final team ranking?

Edited March 23, 2020 by triumph_communes

[LGR4GM]

12 minutes ago, triumph_communes said:

Can we stop pushing the lie that Botterill hasn’t replaced ROR’s offense? In GMTMs last season they scored 199 goals in 82 games. 60 games in this season they’re at 193.

As our defensive zone turnarounds has improved, our standards have shifted. Good thing, but Rome also wasn’t built in a day. 

What’s the Rsq and p-value for xGF vs final team ranking?

Then why are you using straight correlation in your previous post?

As to the p-value I would have to send a message to Sean who creates those charts to find out what he is doing. I think the Rsq would be more useful to know and I would guess that it fits a regression line fairly well because it does predict team success. You are changing that predictor value though by restricting it's use to a 7 game series. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

16 minutes ago, triumph_communes said:

Can we stop pushing the lie that Botterill hasn’t replaced ROR’s offense? In GMTMs last season they scored 199 goals in 82 games. 60 games in this season they’re at 193.

What’s the Rsq and p-value for xGF vs final team ranking?

In real terms we are definitely scoring more goals then the TM teams, but in adjusted terms we are only marginally better.  However we are better.  We are also better in real and adjusted terms on defense, especially when Ullmark plays.

 

18 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Lol. In one post you talk about depth in then here imply we don't need that. What if Olofsson gets hurt, what if a top 6 forward was in the middle six because we had enough depth? It isn't about just having 6, it is about pushing everything else down and in a lot of cases out. You aren't doing that by adding Cozens and .... no one. 

Last I looked I outlined all of depth candidates that are currently in the organization.  Kahun has shown he is a legit middle six forward with two solid NHL seasons under his belt. MoJo is still here and is a solid 2/3 LW who can play up if necessary.  Cozens has Reinhart production potential. While you have written off Mitts and Thompson, I respectfully disagree. Both should be top 9 forwards as early as next year.  Almost no NHL team except TB have the forwards who are top 6 talent playing outside the top 6.  Most teams need a young player to step up and produce if a VO gets hurt and I think we are getting close to that place.  As I written over and over again, Jbot must get a 2C this off-season. He must not throw Cozens into that role.  If he does, I’ll switch sides.

Edited March 23, 2020 by GASabresIUFAN

[LGR4GM]

15 minutes ago, triumph_communes said:

Can we stop pushing the lie that Botterill hasn’t replaced ROR’s offense? In GMTMs last season they scored 199 goals in 82 games. 60 games in this season they’re at 193.

As our defensive zone turnarounds has improved, our standards have shifted. Good thing, but Rome also wasn’t built in a day. 

What’s the Rsq and p-value for xGF vs final team ranking?

Sure, but since you have demonstrated knowledge of stats this is a pretty bad attempt and doing what you ask. Why? Well because in 2017 the average goals was 2.77 versus now it is 3.02. So team scoring might have gone up but it did not go up when weighted against the league, therefore it did not go up in any meaningful way.