Why is Botterill still GM?

[Thorner]

Who's the best current centre, the most important position in hockey, that Botterill has added to the roster in 3 full seasons?

Is it Lazar?

[Marvin]

2 hours ago, Thorny said:

Who's the best current centre, the most important position in hockey, that Botterill has added to the roster in 3 full seasons?

Is it Lazar?

Yes.

[Curt]

On 5/16/2020 at 3:15 PM, Thorny said:

Regardless, that’s his outlier deal. His other trades have been moderate moves, a moneyball-like attempt (I believe you’ve referenced this re: Botterill) at paying mid-level draft pick currency to acquire seemingly mid/low level players he thought might achieve the desired goal with enough quantity. 

I’ve repeatedly (Don’t remember by who, so I don’t mean to single you out specifically) seen Botterill’s moves characterized as of the “moneyball variety” because he is spending low ended assets to acquire lots of low end players in the hopes that some of them can surpass expectations.

However, it’s a bad comparison.  That’s not what moneyball is/was.  It was identifying specific market inefficiencies where players were not being valued properly in relation to their impact on winning.  The whole goal was to identify players who could contribute to winning at a cheaper salary.  The cheaper part was the whole point.  Botterill hasn’t done this at all.

He isn’t doing anything like moneyball, he is just trying to find diamonds in the rough.

[LGR4GM]

Botterill's evaluation of NHL forwards has been atrocious. We have Kahun (looks decent) and Skinner (obvious trade but overpaid in UFA). Outside of that I think Lazar might be the only other useful NHL forward Botts has signed. 

[Taro T]

49 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Botterill's evaluation of NHL forwards has been atrocious. We have Kahun (looks decent) and Skinner (obvious trade but overpaid in UFA). Outside of that I think Lazar might be the only other useful NHL forward Botts has signed. 

Johansson is useful, though he isn't a 2C.

[LGR4GM]

42 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Johansson is useful, though he isn't a 2C.

right which makes him useless because that's what Jason thought he could do... maybe that one is a stretch. 

[Thorner]

15 hours ago, Curt said:

I’ve repeatedly (Don’t remember by who, so I don’t mean to single you out specifically) seen Botterill’s moves characterized as of the “moneyball variety” because he is spending low ended assets to acquire lots of low end players in the hopes that some of them can surpass expectations.

However, it’s a bad comparison.  That’s not what moneyball is/was.  It was identifying specific market inefficiencies where players were not being valued properly in relation to their impact on winning.  The whole goal was to identify players who could contribute to winning at a cheaper salary.  The cheaper part was the whole point.  Botterill hasn’t done this at all.

He isn’t doing anything like moneyball, he is just trying to find diamonds in the rough.

In his perception, I meant. 

Botterball. 

Edited May 19, 2020 by Thorny

[Curt]

8 hours ago, Thorny said:

In his perception, I meant. 

Botterball. 

Not quite as catchy, or effective.

[DarthEbriate]

On 5/16/2020 at 6:06 PM, GASabresIUFAN said:

I've been saying for months that Cozens will be a Sabre next fall.  That is not exactly Earth shattering news.  The real question is whether Jbot will be foolish again to force the kid in the 2C role or put another former center (like MoJo or Kahun) into the 2C role.

Ideally, MoJo and Kahun stay on the wings, Cozens plays 3C and Jbot gets a legit 2C.  

And that's the real trick isn't it? And it'll cost us something extra. Ten thousand. All in advance. If Cozens isn't ready, and we stunt his growth as a result of not having the adequate protections (re: 2C + legit 3/4C like Larsson) to ease his role, then he'll be into the AHL the following season and the team will be two more years down the Eichel path with nothing to show for it, and that's when it will start to get very problematic. Because if you flip JBot then you're bringing in another GM with a 3-year grace period to build their roster. And that's when you start looking at moving the pieces of value who have never won anything (for example, Eichel = Taylor Hall).

[GASabresIUFAN]

4 hours ago, DarthEbriate said:

And that's the real trick isn't it? And it'll cost us something extra. Ten thousand. All in advance. If Cozens isn't ready, and we stunt his growth as a result of not having the adequate protections (re: 2C + legit 3/4C like Larsson) to ease his role, then he'll be into the AHL the following season and the team will be two more years down the Eichel path with nothing to show for it, and that's when it will start to get very problematic. Because if you flip JBot then you're bringing in another GM with a 3-year grace period to build their roster. And that's when you start looking at moving the pieces of value who have never won anything (for example, Eichel = Taylor Hall).

i don't think Hall has ever been a good as Jack at least certainly not at the same age.  

The way this should work is that Jbot gets a 2C - Strome, Henrique, Cirelli, Tyler Johnson etc...  I think the bridge 2C is the most likely scenario, as I doubt TB would trade Cirelli in the division but who knows.

Then once that's accomplished, I'd let Mitts and Cozens battle it out to see who is ready.  If Cozens is better, send Casey to the minors or trade him for other assets as it is likely that someone like Rossi will be a Sabre prospect following the draft.  If Mitts is better, return Cozens to Jrs assuming there is juniors to return to.  (No Juniors, then I assume he'd go to the AHL).

 

[freester]

6 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

i don't think Hall has ever been a good as Jack at least certainly not at the same age.  

The way this should work is that Jbot gets a 2C - Strome, Henrique, Cirelli, Tyler Johnson etc...  I think the bridge 2C is the most likely scenario, as I doubt TB would trade Cirelli in the division but who knows.

Then once that's accomplished, I'd let Mitts and Cozens battle it out to see who is ready.  If Cozens is better, send Casey to the minors or trade him for other assets as it is likely that someone like Rossi will be a Sabre prospect following the draft.  If Mitts is better, return Cozens to Jrs assuming there is juniors to return to.  (No Juniors, then I assume he'd go to the AHL).

 

I'm a bit concerned that Kahun is now our 2C in Botteril's mind.

[nfreeman]

7 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

i don't think Hall has ever been a good as Jack at least certainly not at the same age.  

The way this should work is that Jbot gets a 2C - Strome, Henrique, Cirelli, Tyler Johnson etc...  I think the bridge 2C is the most likely scenario, as I doubt TB would trade Cirelli in the division but who knows.

Then once that's accomplished, I'd let Mitts and Cozens battle it out to see who is ready.  If Cozens is better, send Casey to the minors or trade him for other assets as it is likely that someone like Rossi will be a Sabre prospect following the draft.  If Mitts is better, return Cozens to Jrs assuming there is juniors to return to.  (No Juniors, then I assume he'd go to the AHL).

Why not let Cozens battle it out with a roast beef sandwich?

In all seriousness, this assumes that Mitts is a viable candidate for #3C, which he isn't.  For that matter, he almost certainly isn't a viable candidate for an NHL roster spot next season, let alone #3C. 

I think we need to move away from the mindset of "we can count on Mitts to become a real contributor at the NHL level" and toward the mindset of "Mitts is probably a washout and anything the Sabres ever get from him, either as a Sabre or in trade, is a bonus."

And we need to understand that it is critical that JB, or preferably the new GM, brings in other candidates for #2C and #3C in addition to Cozens.

[GASabresIUFAN]

30 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

Why not let Cozens battle it out with a roast beef sandwich?

In all seriousness, this assumes that Mitts is a viable candidate for #3C, which he isn't.  For that matter, he almost certainly isn't a viable candidate for an NHL roster spot next season, let alone #3C. 

I think we need to move away from the mindset of "we can count on Mitts to become a real contributor at the NHL level" and toward the mindset of "Mitts is probably a washout and anything the Sabres ever get from him, either as a Sabre or in trade, is a bonus."

And we need to understand that it is critical that JB, or preferably the new GM, brings in other candidates for #2C and #3C in addition to Cozens.

This is complete nonsense.  Sorry for being so blunt, but Mitts is significantly more talented then Nylander yet all Nylander did was add decent secondary scoring (10g 26pts in 65 games) for Chicago in his 4th pro season.  He out pointed more seasoned Sabres such as Skinner, Sheary and Vesey.

Casey is entering his 3rd pro season and 4th since being drafted.  The reviews from Roch were that he was stronger, played smarter and better and become a team leader as his time there progressed.  

Put a more physically and mentally more mature Casey in a secondary role on the Sabres and you’ll get more production and better play then the 25 pts you got 2 years ago at 19.

If Nylander can score 26 pts in his 4th season no reason to think Mitts can’t do better.

Don’t forget that players mature at different rates.  How old were Olofsson and Kahun when they made their NHL debuts?

Edited May 22, 2020 by GASabresIUFAN

[dudacek]

1 hour ago, nfreeman said:

Why not let Cozens battle it out with a roast beef sandwich?

In all seriousness, this assumes that Mitts is a viable candidate for #3C, which he isn't.  For that matter, he almost certainly isn't a viable candidate for an NHL roster spot next season, let alone #3C. 

I think we need to move away from the mindset of "we can count on Mitts to become a real contributor at the NHL level" and toward the mindset of "Mitts is probably a washout and anything the Sabres ever get from him, either as a Sabre or in trade, is a bonus."

And we need to understand that it is critical that JB, or preferably the new GM, brings in other candidates for #2C and #3C in addition to Cozens.

I’m completely with you on the not counting on Mitts this season part, and the bring in other candidates part.

The rest, not so much.

There are nine guys in that entire draft class who have played 80 games in the NHL. How many of the other 200 plus players picked are we writing off? They are 21-year-old prospects. You think Vegas has written off Tanner Glass? LA Gabe Villardi? Detroit Michael Rasmussen? Ryan Poehling? Kailer Yamamoto? Morgan Frost? Their stories have yet to be written.

What was Tim Connolly at Casey’s age? Danny Briere? 

If Casey’s D2 year had been in college and this year saw him effectively playing as a rookie 1C in Rochester (which is how he finished thIs season), you’d be among many excited about his chances to make the jump this year.

The kid was mishandled and isn’t going to match his early hype, but he’s got some skill and Chris Taylor was starting to help him use it.

Let’s not jump to any conclusions.

Edited May 22, 2020 by dudacek

[nfreeman]

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

This is complete nonsense.  Sorry for being so blunt, but Mitts is significantly more talented then Nylander yet all Nylander did was add decent secondary scoring (10g 26pts in 65 games) for Chicago in his 4th pro season.  He out pointed more seasoned Sabres such as Skinner, Sheary and Vesey.

Casey is entering his 3rd pro season and 4th since being drafted.  The reviews from Roch were that he was stronger, played smarter and better and become a team leader as his time there progressed.  

Put a more physically and mentally more mature Casey in a secondary role on the Sabres and you’ll get more production and better play then the 25 pts you got 2 years ago at 19.

If Nylander can score 26 pts in his 4th season no reason to think Mitts can’t do better.

Don’t forget that players mature at different rates.  How old were Olofsson and Kahun when they made their NHL debuts?

 

20 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I’m completely with you on the not counting on Mitts this season part, and the bring in other candidates part.

The rest, not so much.

There are nine guys in that entire draft class who have played 80 games in the NHL. How many of the other 200 plus players picked are we writing off? They are 21-year-old prospects. You think Vegas has written off Tanner Glass? LA Gabe Villardi? Detroit Michael Rasmussen? Ryan Poehling? Kailer Yamamoto? Morgan Frost? Their stories have yet to be written.

What was Tim Connolly at Casey’s age? Danny Briere? 

If Casey’s D2 year had been in college and this year saw him effectively playing as a rookie 1C in Rochester (which is how he finished thIs season), you’d be among many excited about his chances to make the jump this year.

The kid was mishandled and isn’t going to match his early hype, but he’s got some skill and Chris Taylor was starting to help him use it.

Let’s not jump to any conclusions.

I agree with both of you that players mature at different rates, and that there is no reason to dump Mitts for a low draft pick or otherwise make any kind of hasty decision on him.  The Sabres should keep him in Rochester and let him sink or swim until they are forced to give him a real contract.  That will be the decision point.

What I am objecting to is the notion that Mitts represents a viable option in Buffalo this year.  @GASabresIUFAN has, on a number of occasions, including upthread, mentioned Mitts as one of the Sabres' prospects who could play a meaningful role on the Sabres this year.  I think there is a less than 10% chance of that happening -- and it's closer to zero than 10%.  (To be clear, @GASabresIUFAN isn't the only one doing so -- he's just the one who has triggered me this time.)

I will also note that based on the stats and on our SabreSpace eyewitnesses, @dudacek 's description of Mitts' play in Rochester seems a bit generous.  When I combine the numbers, the views of those who watched in Rochester, and his complete inability to do anything at the NHL level over a 2-season period, I get pretty pessimistic about him.

Also, Connolly, although also an underachiever early in his career, was about a million times better and more effective than Mitts was at Mitts' age -- Connolly had already put up 41- and 45-point seasons by age 21.

Of course, YMMV.

[dudacek]

1 hour ago, nfreeman said:

 

I agree with both of you that players mature at different rates, and that there is no reason to dump Mitts for a low draft pick or otherwise make any kind of hasty decision on him.  The Sabres should keep him in Rochester and let him sink or swim until they are forced to give him a real contract.  That will be the decision point.

What I am objecting to is the notion that Mitts represents a viable option in Buffalo this year.  @GASabresIUFAN has, on a number of occasions, including upthread, mentioned Mitts as one of the Sabres' prospects who could play a meaningful role on the Sabres this year.  I think there is a less than 10% chance of that happening -- and it's closer to zero than 10%.  (To be clear, @GASabresIUFAN isn't the only one doing so -- he's just the one who has triggered me this time.)

I will also note that based on the stats and on our SabreSpace eyewitnesses, @dudacek 's description of Mitts' play in Rochester seems a bit generous.  When I combine the numbers, the views of those who watched in Rochester, and his complete inability to do anything at the NHL level over a 2-season period, I get pretty pessimistic about him.

Also, Connolly, although also an underachiever early in his career, was about a million times better and more effective than Mitts was at Mitts' age -- Connolly had already put up 41- and 45-point seasons by age 21.

Of course, YMMV.

Just to clarify, 1C was my description of Casey’s role, not his play. Taylor used him as a 1C, with mixed, but generally trending upwards results.

Also, Connolly D3 certainly had more success than Mitts D3, but D2 their numbers track: 10 goals, 41 points for Tim in 82 games,  13 goals, 30 points in 83 games for Casey. And Tim had 25 points and a -28 in  80 D4 games. He was a soft turnover machine that everyone was calling a bust and wanted gone until he wasn’t.

There was definitely a comparison there.

Briere meanwhile put up 22 points in 60-odd games as a rookie in his D3 season, and spent most of his D4 and D5 years in the minors, before finally arriving as a 60-point NHLer in D6

Edited May 22, 2020 by dudacek

[nfreeman]

5 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Just to clarify, 1C was my description of Casey’s role, not his play. Taylor used him as a 1C, with mixed, but generally trending upwards results.

Also, Connolly D3 certainly had more success than Mitts D3, but D2 their numbers track: 10 goals, 41 points for Tim in 82 games,  13 goals, 30 points in 83 games for Casey. And Tim had 25 points and a -28 in  80 D4 games. He was a soft turnover machine that everyone was calling a bust and wanted gone until he wasn’t.

There was definitely a comparison there.

Briere meanwhile put up 22 points as a rookie in his D3 season, and spent most of his D4 and D5 years in the minors, before finally arriving as a 60-point NHLer in D6

Not that it's a material difference, but didn't Mitts have 12-13-25 in 77 games in his D2 season?  Am I missing something?

More importantly, while I agree that TC was heavily criticized in his D4 season, and rightly so, he had still shown much more to that point in his career than Mitts has.  IMHO, Mitts has not yet shown that he has the physical ability/timing/skill to play in the NHL.  TC had clearly established that he had the chops, but needed to work on his determination and his 200-foot game.

I'll agree that Briere is (hopefully!) a reasonable comparable.

[dudacek]

14 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

Not that it's a material difference, but didn't Mitts have 12-13-25 in 77 games in his D2 season?  Am I missing something?

You’re right.My numbers include his 6 game sample from the end of the previous year.

Pretty sure both Tim and Danny have referred to having moments where they took a good hard look at themselves in their early 20s and made the changes they needed.

It will be very interesting to see whether Casey can do the same. He still strikes me as very much a boy, not a man.

Edited May 22, 2020 by dudacek

[Weave]

What I remember of Connolly was, in the pivotal offseason that changed his game, he totally committed to being the best NHL player he could.  Shaved his head, changed his routine, changed his life really.

Mitts has some work to do yet.

Edited May 22, 2020 by Weave

[DarthEbriate]

On 5/22/2020 at 5:04 AM, freester said:

I'm a bit concerned that Kahun is now our 2C in Botteril's mind.

I'm especially concerned that JBot sees Kahun, Mitts, and Cozens all playing center in Buffalo next season because he has MoJo and Lazar as capable supports. Now -- in 2022-23, maybe it does go Eichel, Cozens, Kahun, Mitts and we're just flying up and down the ice. But always in motion is the future.

[mjd1001]

Maybe the Sabres are planning for a future in the next couple years that will make them better than we all think possible, it just may take some time (something most of us don't want to give them).

Who knows what is going to happen to the Cap this upcoming season and next.  If the cap goes down, some teams may have to gut their roster and make a lot more players available than we thought possible.  Even if they come up with a 'cap work-around', many teams in the NHL are 'cash poor' and are not going to be in a position to pay out $80 million in salaries..even if they keep the cap the same.

So how can this benefit the Sabres?  They only have 4 forwards under contract for next season, and 5 NHL D-men.  If, IF the Sabres plan to NOT go out and give big dollar contracts to free agents...or throw big money at their own free agents, they could be in very good shape starting in the 2021-2022 season.

[dudacek]

Someone described this off-season as a game of musical chairs: There won’t be enough cap space to go around.

A few free agents will get paid but most will be signing for under perceived market value, and players will be made available for less than their perceived trade value as teams struggle to maintain or improve their rosters under the cap.

This is a great, unexpected opportunity for a GM who can correctly read the market and has flexibility under the cap to remake his team with savvy trades and signings. 

Botterill was supposed to be good with the cap. Since we seem to be stuck with him this summer, the best we can hope for is that he is able to seize the opportunity to save his job and make us relevant again in the process.

Edited May 23, 2020 by dudacek

[sabremike]

6 hours ago, dudacek said:

Someone described this off-season as a game of musical chairs: There won’t be enough cap space to go around.

A few free agents will get paid but most will be signing for under perceived market value, and players will be made available for less than their perceived trade value as teams struggle to maintain or improve their rosters under the cap.

This is a great, unexpected opportunity for a GM who can correctly read the market and has flexibility under the cap to remake his team with savvy trades and signings. 

Botterill was supposed to be good with the cap. Since we seem to be stuck with him this summer, the best we can hope for is that he is able to seize the opportunity to save his job and make us relevant again in the process.

Unfortunately he has an abysmal track record when it comes to evaluating talent (seriously, go look at all his acquisitions. It's pretty much a disaster). Even worse is that he's been just as bad at cap management.

[Pimlach]

I always come back to this thread to find the answer on why he is still GM and it’s never here.  
 

With the season now resuming without us I have no idea what will happen.  Bots probably gets his 4th year. 

[sabremike]

14 minutes ago, Pimlach said:

I always come back to this thread to find the answer on why he is still GM and it’s never here.  
 

With the season now resuming without us I have no idea what will happen.  Bots probably gets his 4th year. 

Know that you recently turned 102 but would you be interested in taking the job?