COVID-19

[Zamboni]

Erie county cases ... 166 and climbing . Ugh...

[Brawndo]

 

[darksabre]

Just now, Brawndo said:

 

Germany is just doing an incredible job.

[#freejame]

5 minutes ago, darksabre said:

Germany is just doing an incredible job.

Genuinely asking: is this sarcasm? Their infected rate per capita is much higher than ours. 

[Zamboni]

Latest info and interactive map ...

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

[Zamboni]

Germany has 43,646 cases and climbing. 262 deaths and climbing.

Population approx. 83.78 million

 

United States has four times the population as Germany. Roughly double the number of confirmed cases as Germany. And four times as many deaths as Germany. 
 

 

Edited March 26, 2020 by Zamboni

[triumph_communes]

18 minutes ago, Zamboni said:

Germany has 43,646 cases and climbing. 262 deaths and climbing.

Population approx. 83.78 million

 

United States has four times the population as Germany. Roughly double the number of confirmed cases as Germany. And four times as many deaths as Germany. 
 

 

Aren’t most of germanys elderly uhh dead from the Great War 2?  Skewed population demographics. 
 

Really isn’t the time to be playing the comparison game and trying to make comparisons with simple metrics that are easily skewed. 

[darksabre]

46 minutes ago, #freejame said:

Genuinely asking: is this sarcasm? Their infected rate per capita is much higher than ours. 

That's because they're actually testing people. Look at the death rate as a result. They're putting on a clinic in identifying who has it. 

[Curt]

15 minutes ago, triumph_communes said:

Aren’t most of germanys elderly uhh dead from the Great War 2?  Skewed population demographics. 
 

Really isn’t the time to be playing the comparison game and trying to make comparisons with simple metrics that are easily skewed. 

Anyone old enough to have fought in WW2 would be 95, or at minimum over 90.  So you are talking about a small fraction of the elderly population anyway.

[Taro T]

13 minutes ago, darksabre said:

That's because they're actually testing people. Look at the death rate as a result. They're putting on a clinic in identifying who has it. 

But, isn't their low death rate also a function of a high degree of testing?

If they are testing people who's cases are mild enough that they wouldn't necessarily be tested, they are increasing the denominator for that equation.

Of course, South Korea reportedly had a very aggressive testing program and is seeing ~1.3% like we've seen as well.  So, wtf knows.  There's so much aggregate data, it can make ones head spin.  Certainly the experts have much more granular info.  South Korea has had about the same %age of their population catch the virus but their new case rate has already subsided substantially and ours still is rising. 

[#freejame]

2 hours ago, darksabre said:

That's because they're actually testing people. Look at the death rate as a result. They're putting on a clinic in identifying who has it. 

But can’t upwards of 80% of positives be completely asymptomatic during the course of the virus? Wouldn’t that decrease the death rate also? Again, these are real questions not trying for an argument. 

[Curt]

15 minutes ago, #freejame said:

But can’t upwards of 80% of positives be completely asymptomatic during the course of the virus? Wouldn’t that decrease the death rate also? Again, these are real questions not trying for an argument. 

I think it’s a fact that the more people who are tested, the lower the death rate will look, because it’s always going to be the sickest people who are tested first.

There is a lot we don’t know right now.  Numbers like that will become more clear as we go along.

[spndnchz]

Since Covid is totally unrelated to hockey now.... one thread

[tom webster]

1 hour ago, #freejame said:

But can’t upwards of 80% of positives be completely asymptomatic during the course of the virus? Wouldn’t that decrease the death rate also? Again, these are real questions not trying for an argument. 

This is exactly right and why the numbers just don’t add up. All the “doomsday” scenarios font account for these facts.

I am not trying to downplay the virus but the actual death rates won’t come close to the millions projected.

And I have another question. I know that New York City has some issues on their hands but as far as Erie County is concerned, how are 260 cases and maybe 40 hospitalizations causing chaos in our hospitals?

The numbers don’t match the rhetoric.

Thats all.

[FogBat]

37 minutes ago, spndnchz said:

Since Covid is totally unrelated to hockey now.... one thread

You all might not think that what I'm about to say is COVID-19 related, but it is to an extent.

Given how much of a beating our economy has taken in such a short period of time, we in the trucking industry are doing everything we can to keep all of you fed. Having said that, I sometimes haul food other than poultry. Right now, I'm on a brokered load with a truckload full of apples that delivers tomorrow morning. So, for those of you who live in Amish country in Pennsylvania, BOLO for apples coming to your local grocer before the end of the week.

On a more positive note, I was on the Ohio Toll Road a few hours ago. Someone put up a makeshift sign surrounded by spinning daisy pinwheels that was written with spray paint, "THANK YOU TRUCKERS". That made our day.

[BagBoy]

20 minutes ago, Crosschecking said:

You all might not think that what I'm about to say is COVID-19 related, but it is to an extent.

Given how much of a beating our economy has taken in such a short period of time, we in the trucking industry are doing everything we can to keep all of you fed. Having said that, I sometimes haul food other than poultry. Right now, I'm on a brokered load with a truckload full of apples that delivers tomorrow morning. So, for those of you who live in Amish country in Pennsylvania, BOLO for apples coming to your local grocer before the end of the week.

On a more positive note, I was on the Ohio Toll Road a few hours ago. Someone put up a makeshift sign surrounded by spinning daisy pinwheels that was written with spray paint, "THANK YOU TRUCKERS". That made our day.

I'm glad at least some people realize how important truckers are to society during challenging times like these.  I think the truth is that most people don't appreciate how important truckers are when everything is rosy.  The USA is a huge country size-wise and if we had to move all the products we take for granted strictly by rail, water and air, our standard of living in the majority of this country would be far less desirable than it is today.

[Zamboni]

[Stoner]

10 hours ago, Zamboni said:

...shitting its pants on the Interstate.

I kid.

[FogBat]

A couple of pictures. The top one is an exemption memo from the USDA. The second one is that trailer full of apples. Keep in mind that this is a 53'/16.15m trailer with a refrigeration unit on it.

 

[Stoner]

12 hours ago, #freejame said:

But can’t upwards of 80% of positives be completely asymptomatic during the course of the virus? Wouldn’t that decrease the death rate also? Again, these are real questions not trying for an argument. 

I haven't heard that anywhere. There's a suspicion that lots of people were infected and showed no symptoms (and infected others anyway). But 80% of all infections being asymptomatic? I suspect what you heard was that 80% of known cases so far have involved people with mild (or mild to moderate) symptoms. The other 20% need to go to the hospital.

That said, Dr. Birx said yesterday it's very important to dig into the issue of asymptomatic cases. Whether that means finding them before they infect others, which seems like a fantasy right now, or testing them after they've "recovered" to know the true extent of where the virus has been, I don't know.

[Stoner]

11 hours ago, tom webster said:

This is exactly right and why the numbers just don’t add up. All the “doomsday” scenarios font account for these facts.

I am not trying to downplay the virus but the actual death rates won’t come close to the millions projected.

And I have another question. I know that New York City has some issues on their hands but as far as Erie County is concerned, how are 260 cases and maybe 40 hospitalizations causing chaos in our hospitals?

The numbers don’t match the rhetoric.

Thats all.

Hospital systems, health care organizations, healthcare worker groups and the like have been pretty adept at using social media and new technology to get their message out. I've seen so many ER doctors Skyping in to CNN I've started to get ticked off — "go back to work." They're all after scarce resources. Now we're seeing the mayors of cities we're not even thinking about getting their story out. The mayor of Detroit, which has seen modest activity, is on CNN right now. LA's mayor has been jumping up and down yelling, "Yoohoo! We're over here on your left!" How scarce resources get allocated is one definition of politics, by the way. But we can't talk about that here.

[Wyldnwoody44]

So apparently under order from the governer, we have converted the surgery center and other beds in the ER and hospital to be a Corona virus zone, they are going to start shipping patients from NYC to this county (a county with zero CONFIRMED cases, with many suspected). I get the city is struggling, but this seems counterintuitive to the overall mission of flattening the curve and stopping the spread, we all know damn well what is going to happen and we don't even have close to enough PPE to handle this properly. 

The completely illogical way of thinking has me sad for this country's future, this damn pandemic has really shown me how good we are at facing adversity, and we suck at it. 

In 1 weeks time, we will all be knee deep in this Corona at work, I am hoping that it isn't as bad as the media is portraying it to be. I'm just very frustrated overall, reasonably so. I wish I could offer up a better solution, but I think Natural selection needs to take its course, let herd immunity rule and build up natural defenses and cross out fingers and hope we outlast this thing. 

A little cruel sounding sure, but it's what we have done for countless centuries prior to this. Asking the limited Healthcare providers to best this in our current situation is difficult to impossible. 

[triumph_communes]

3 minutes ago, Wyldnwoody44 said:

So apparently under order from the governer, we have converted the surgery center and other beds in the ER and hospital to be a Corona virus zone, they are going to start shipping patients from NYC to this county (a county with zero CONFIRMED cases, with many suspected). I get the city is struggling, but this seems counterintuitive to the overall mission of flattening the curve and stopping the spread, we all know damn well what is going to happen and we don't even have close to enough PPE to handle this properly. 

The completely illogical way of thinking has me sad for this country's future, this damn pandemic has really shown me how good we are at facing adversity, and we suck at it. 

In 1 weeks time, we will all be knee deep in this Corona at work, I am hoping that it isn't as bad as the media is portraying it to be. I'm just very frustrated overall, reasonably so. I wish I could offer up a better solution, but I think Natural selection needs to take its course, let herd immunity rule and build up natural defenses and cross out fingers and hope we outlast this thing. 

A little cruel sounding sure, but it's what we have done for countless centuries prior to this. Asking the limited Healthcare providers to best this in our current situation is difficult to impossible. 

NYC only cares about NYC.  You live to serve NYC.

[Zamboni]

article on Worst case, Better case, Best case

 

https://www.foxnews.com/health/how-long-will-coronavirus-last-in-the-us

[Indabuff]

18 minutes ago, Wyldnwoody44 said:

So apparently under order from the governer, we have converted the surgery center and other beds in the ER and hospital to be a Corona virus zone, they are going to start shipping patients from NYC to this county (a county with zero CONFIRMED cases, with many suspected).

 

This is absolutely absurd and completely contradicts the idea of containment.