COVID-19

[Zamboni]

2 minutes ago, darksabre said:

I don't think the shutdown is ending next week, at least not in NYS.

Agree.
There’s talk. There’s wishes. There’s hope. But in the end, in NY, this state shutdown will last (at the most optimistic) until mid April and most likely longer. The state hasn’t reached the apex yet. Once it’s on the far side of the Apex, I can see some restrictions loosening up a little. 

[Curt]

7 minutes ago, GoPre said:

What are your thoughts of many easing back to a normal life routine after the 15 day shutdown ends next week?  Mainly going back to the norm to prevent the economy from collapsing.  Just curious.  

We for sure have yet to see the peak of this thing.  So I think it’s premature to plan on easing up after this 15 day period.  Wait until cases start to actually decrease before easing restrictions.

[MakeSabresGrr8Again]

7 hours ago, Neo said:

Great question ....

Change has been here my entire life.  New threats and opportunities present themselves regularly, one by one.  I’ve felt 1 & 2, below, for some time.  They put 3 into context.

1).  Acceleration:  Change is constant, but its accelerated pace for the past fifteen or so years takes my breath away.  Kitty Hawk to the moon landing took 63 years,  or barely a heartbeat in human history.  Now, things change even more rapidly.  We find and lose whole industries, not just companies, in a matter of years.  Think Blockbuster.   I started feeling this, articulating this, perhaps fifteen years ago.  I don’t know how anyone plans for retirement, anymore.   What will it look like?  I hire and mentor young people.  Well, I did until we stopped hiring them, but that’s another story.  I used to tell them what I considered to be valuable advice.  “Learn accounting.  Regardless of where your career goes, it will always be valuable.  It’s the language of business.”. Now, I tell them “Don’t become wed to today.  Today will be yesterday very soon, and no one cares about how we did things yesterday.”  This is unnerving.

2).  Disconnect:  Short version.  We are orders of magnitude less connected today then we were when I was a boy, all the technological and generational “connectedness” talk notwithstanding.  Have dinner with two people who learned “stuff” when they were kids.  Then, have dinner with two people who learned where to “find stuff” when they were kids.  I don’t know who’s better prepared.  I know we’re differently prepared.  This disconnect, this loss of common denominators, is unrecognized by victims.  I believe it to be insidious; time will tell.  I could go on and on, here.  Tidbit ...  my frequent visits here are a symptom, not a contradiction.   Second tidbit ...  this isn’t a generational dig, either.  My kids are millennials.  This is a truism that doesn’t praise, criticize, uplift, offend, accuse or absolve.  This is alienating.

3). Events:   In the context of 1 & 2, we experience events differently.  The new and unforeseen arrives more often in a less connected world.  Life can be overwhelming.  I’m as skeptical of “progress” as I am of “complacency”.  There’s “new” and there’s “better”.  Sometimes they’re the same, sometime’s they’re not.

There, all that said, I’ll answer your question.   You used words like crazy and wild.   In answer to your question, it’s “this”.   Seven billion people affected the same way, regardless of status or locale, at the exact same time, by a mystery threat.  Insulated, safe, comfortable lives suspended.  Financial atomic bombs.  Guesses as to how and when it ends.   I’ve not lived through anything like this.  Mother nature reminds us all the time that we are fragile and vulnerable.  She sends hurricanes, floods, and earthquakes.  God gives us faulty hearts, tired kidneys, over-burdened or weak arteries.  Regularly, the two send us messages, one on one or in small groups.   Occasionally, She and He get together and call us together to a grand assembly.  Still, my confidence is unshaken.  We will tell our kids about it ....  well, I’ll tell my GREAT grandkids, God willing.  My kids and grandkids already know.

I am 58.

I absolutely love reading most, if not all, of your posts. They seemingly have a Socrates/ Plato philosophy to them but delivered in a Shakespeare kind of way. You certainly get my mind engaged with thought while being quite entertaining at the same time.

If you are mentoring our youth.....i feel more comfortable than I did yesterday. Thank you and continue please.

[Doohicksie]

8 minutes ago, GoPre said:

What are your thoughts of many easing back to a normal life routine after the 15 day shutdown ends next week?  Mainly going back to the norm to prevent the economy from collapsing.  Just curious.  

It will take longer than that.  The key is to eliminate circulation of the virus.  Some countries have managed to do this, but only under pretty strict "shelter at home" conditions, and for longer than a couple weeks.  Korea and the US had their first cases at the same time.  Korea went to massive amounts of testing and a total shutdown.  They're easing restrictions now and things are coming back.  I expect there will be additional cases, but at least they know what they're dealing with because they test for it.

4 minutes ago, sabills said:

Honestly, I'm mentally prepping for July.

It's gonna be about three months is my guess.  July sounds about right.

[Stoner]

4 minutes ago, Zamboni said:

Agree.
There’s talk. There’s wishes. There’s hope. But in the end, in NY, this state shutdown will last (at the most optimistic) until mid April and most likely longer. The state hasn’t reached the apex yet. Once it’s on the far side of the Apex, I can see some restrictions loosening up a little. 

Even for those in the state of New York, it feels like another disaster we're watching on TV. The thing is, the monster isn't going to destroy Manhattan and then swim out to sea. It's coming for the rest of us.

2 minutes ago, Curt said:

We for sure have yet to see the peak of this thing.  So I think it’s premature to plan on easing up after this 15 day period.  Wait until cases start to actually decrease before easing restrictions.

"15 Days to Slow the Spread" is a nice idea and I'm sure many people took it seriously. I'm guessing just as many had no idea it existed or didn't follow it. The real enforcement action is done by the governors.

[GoPre]

15 minutes ago, darksabre said:

I don't think the shutdown is ending next week, at least not in NYS.

I also don’t think it’ll end next week.  Not wise to.  Reason asking is there are people near the top beginning to think or say otherwise.  Priority should be the containment/bringing the virus to an end.  

Edited March 24, 2020 by GoPre

[Wyldnwoody44]

45 minutes ago, darksabre said:

Haphazardly too. Woody's post stays but the others don't? 

I thought about deleting, but I tried to make it as non political as possible. It's a real concern to me that we shut down the nation for Covid and then already hearing about retreating course, if they aim to not overburden the hospitals, this is a sure fire way to fail in that mission. The country for all intents and purposes are on pins and needles, so anything said is going to be taken more seriously than before. 

There are a lot of medical staff in the hospitals where I work, that are very very afraid of what's to come, from colleges that don't spook easily, some very bright minds at that. I may not be on that end of the spectrum when it comes to this thing, but I certainly don't dismiss their concerns.

[Weave]

20 minutes ago, GoPre said:

What are your thoughts of many easing back to a normal life routine after the 15 day shutdown ends next week?  Mainly going back to the norm to prevent the economy from collapsing.  Just curious.  

Based on what’s happened in China and Italy, i think a shutdown limited to 15 days will cost lives.  When Grandma and Grandpa start dropping things will get pretty angry.

[Stoner]

1 hour ago, Wyldnwoody44 said:

So now the story is we're going to try to restart the economy, what the heck are we doing as a country....we have failed on every level of this, we want our cake and want to eat it too. 

Are we so inept that we can't handle a shutdown of more than a week, don't declare a national emergency and shut down the world due to a virus and then turn it off before the virus actually makes it's course. 

Either this thing is a glorified flu and that's what's coming to light, or this thing is as bad as they say and we are being stupid and greedy. 

It's not that hard to read between the lines right now and understand that what is being proposed boils down to this: should we endanger those at highest risk to return the country to a normal footing? It's all over the news right now if you care to hear it. Kudlow said there would be "tradeoffs." Dr. Birx came out with mortality stats that should "reassure" the country (hint: young people aren't dying from it).

1 hour ago, nfreeman said:

Moved a few more to the politics club.

I don't know what you're moving. But short of posts that insult and are more heat than light, I would urge you to leave them here so we can have an adult discussion. This topic is inherently political.

[Zamboni]

6 minutes ago, PASabreFan said:

It's not that hard to read between the lines right now and understand that what is being proposed boils down to this: should we endanger those at highest risk to return the country to a normal footing? It's all over the news right now if you care to hear it. Kudlow said there would be "tradeoffs." Dr. Birx came out with mortality stats that should "reassure" the country (hint: young people aren't dying from it).

I don't know what you're moving. But short of posts that insult and are more heat than light, I would urge you to leave them here so we can have an adult discussion. This topic is inherently political.

Wrong, some posters here have proven over and over and over again that they can’t have an adult discussion about this topic without using insulting words, insulting names, and immature grandstanding and statements.

it’s nice when you can click into this thread and get information about this virus. Non-political facts. A lot of posters here are biting their tongue and holding back on political opinions because it doesn’t help the discussion of the facts. There is a thread to discuss politically driven opinion and politically driven discussion about this virus. And it shouldn’t be this thread.

Edited March 24, 2020 by Zamboni

[Stoner]

Officials have been repeatedly conflating the elderly and underlying conditions/immunosuppression as being at high risk, as if only the elderly can have underlying conditions/immunosuppression. Pence has been saying things like, "We have to protect the vulnerable population, like the elderly with underlying conditions." Now I'm hearing more and more, "Those with multiple underlying conditions."

From statnews (this might be a controversial site, but I think the info. is good):

Quote

Overall, the older people are, the greater the danger an infection poses to them. But people of all ages with weakened immune systems or certain diseases also face higher risks and are experiencing the coronavirus pandemic with particular anxieties. Many are taking unprecedented precautions to protect themselves and their families, and depending on a public that some say does not seem fully dedicated to stopping infections and keeping them safe.

It feels like a lot of us are being taken out back of the barn. Are we going from deplorables to expendables?

[dudacek]

22 minutes ago, darksabre said:

I don't think the shutdown is ending next week, at least not in NYS.

Nor here, and we better all pray that it doesn’t, or we’ll shutting down again to worse conditions two weeks later.

16 minutes ago, sabills said:

Honestly, I'm mentally prepping for July.

This is the best of what I’ve allowed myself as well. 

16 minutes ago, Zamboni said:

Agree.
There’s talk. There’s wishes. There’s hope. But in the end, in NY, this state shutdown will last (at the most optimistic) until mid April and most likely longer. The state hasn’t reached the apex yet. Once it’s on the far side of the Apex, I can see some restrictions loosening up a little. 

What some people don’t seem to understand is the danger isn’t over when the number of new cases drops to nothing in their neighborhood because right now there is nothing preventing the virus from waltzing right back in. It won’t be over until 70 per cent of us have been immunized through vaccination or infection.

Until that happens the curve can be unflattened at any time and the battle will continue.

[Curt]

18 minutes ago, PASabreFan said:

Even for those in the state of New York, it feels like another disaster we're watching on TV. The thing is, the monster isn't going to destroy Manhattan and then swim out to sea. It's coming for the rest of us.

Agree.  My fiancé is working at a hospital in Westchester.  Staff there are starting to test positive.  This could move very fast.  The monster you see on TV today is in your living room tomorrow.

[MakeSabresGrr8Again]

10 minutes ago, Zamboni said:

Vice President Pence just announced 2,000 ventilators are arriving to NY later today. 
And another 2,000 will arrive tomorrow.

So that’s good news!

No, good news would be that we don't need them.

[Stoner]

6 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Nor here, and we better all pray that it doesn’t, or we’ll shutting down again to worse conditions two weeks later.

This is the best of what I’ve allowed myself as well. 

What some people don’t seem to understand is the danger isn’t over when the number of new cases drops to nothing in their neighborhood because right now there is nothing preventing the virus from waltzing right back in. It won’t be over until 70 per cent of us have been immunized through vaccination or infection.

Until that happens the curve can be unflattened at any time and the battle will continue.

Is 70% the threshold for "herd immunity"? This is where the antibody testing becomes so crucial. We might be closer to that 70% than we might assume.

[dudacek]

1 minute ago, PASabreFan said:

Is 70% the threshold for "herd immunity"? This is where the antibody testing becomes so crucial. We might be closer to that 70% than we might assume.

According to what I’ve read, yes.

And mass testing is so crucial.

[nfreeman]

6 minutes ago, PASabreFan said:

That's garbage. "Trump is a piece of *****" and "Trump's decision to re-open the economy would endanger lives" are both political statements. I'd ban the first and allow the second. Let's not throw out the baby with bath water.

I'd urge nfreeman to let up and give us all a chance to make it work here. The last election? That was a time when politics was sport. Trash talking was part of it. This is a far different time.

And the bolded is a nice example of why political discussion goes in the politics club. 

 

23 minutes ago, PASabreFan said:

It's not that hard to read between the lines right now and understand that what is being proposed boils down to this: should we endanger those at highest risk to return the country to a normal footing? It's all over the news right now if you care to hear it. Kudlow said there would be "tradeoffs." Dr. Birx came out with mortality stats that should "reassure" the country (hint: young people aren't dying from it).

I don't know what you're moving. But short of posts that insult and are more heat than light, I would urge you to leave them here so we can have an adult discussion. This topic is inherently political.

No.  Aspects of it -- in particular, opinions as to how the government is handling it -- are inherently political.  But that is only a piece of it, and one that doesn't need to pollute the rest of this thread -- which is now at 36 pages, over 90% of which have been non-political.

Again:  falling back on "everything is political and therefore I can give my political opinions" is just a self-absorbed BS excuse for "I want to blast away with my political opinions regardless of whether this is the right time and place."

 

4 minutes ago, PASabreFan said:

Or... can we have one thread for Covid-19 facts and news and one for Covid-19 discussion (including discussion of government response)?

This comes from a political place (you inherently believe what he's saying). And I'm fine with it.

Your 2nd thread already exists.  It's in the politics club.

 

[WildCard]

43 minutes ago, sabills said:

Honestly, I'm mentally prepping for July.

I won't make it that long. I need sports and wings 

[Stoner]

I give up.

[Zamboni]

Good glad that stuff was moved. 

NY treatment trials begin today. Fingers crossed this is the beginning of good news.

5 minutes ago, WildCard said:

I won't make it that long. I need sports and wings 

Classic Sabres games and take out! ?

[dudacek]

There is a distinct difference between political conversation and partisan conversation. This is not a commentary on the forum's overall policies on either.

This topic is inherently political. Keeping out partisan elements makes this particular (excellent) thread much easier for me, personally, to use and digest.

[Curt]

50 minutes ago, PASabreFan said:

Is 70% the threshold for "herd immunity"? This is where the antibody testing becomes so crucial. We might be closer to that 70% than we might assume.

I would think that % is going vary based on how contagious a condition is.  It’s not going to be the same for all illnesses.

It hasn’t even been proven that people are “immune” once they have had it once.  Though they probably are, in large part.

[Neo]

1 hour ago, MakeSabresGrr8Again said:

I absolutely love reading most, if not all, of your posts. They seemingly have a Socrates/ Plato philosophy to them but delivered in a Shakespeare kind of way. You certainly get my mind engaged with thought while being quite entertaining at the same time.

If you are mentoring our youth.....i feel more comfortable than I did yesterday. Thank you and continue please.

This is very nice and it makes me feel warm.  Writing for me is sweat and craft, not magic and talent.  When I write, I work.

PS ..  I know some philosophers and writers who are rolling over in their graves after your post!

[MakeSabresGrr8Again]

4 minutes ago, Neo said:

This is very nice and it makes me feel warm.  Writing for me is sweat and craft, not magic and talent.  When I write, I work.

PS ..  I know some philosophers and writers who are rolling over in their graves after your post!

If they are truly rolling over in their graves, it's due to being ashamed that they were not endowed with your greatness. ?

[Ducky]

15 hours ago, WildCard said:

Question for the older posters I was debating with my gf: Is this the wildest thing you've ever lived through? Are times now, with leaps in technology, politics, and pandemics, crazier now then they were when you were younger?

yes