COVID-19

[Weave]

19 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Perhaps.  1,081 cases in Austrailia; 385 cases in Singapore.  Haven't seen how their case rates have progressed.  (Expect that data is out there, but haven't seen it.)  Nor have any data regarding how much direct contact their respective citizenry's have had with residents of Wuhan.

That isn't encouraging but there still are far more cases in NH temperate zones than in other regions.  Seasonality doesn't mean people don't get summer colds, it just leaves us with far fewer of those than winter colds.

The graph I posted on pg 29 shows how they have progressed.  In Singapore, where they jumped on it early and the culture is one of obedience, the curve is flat like Japan and Hong Kong.  In Australia the curve is trending like most of the western world.

Edited March 22, 2020 by Weave

[dudacek]

Australian PM just blasted his country and started the beginning of “Draconian” measures that “could be in place for 6 months” due to lack of response to requests and suggestions.

That is the opposite of an obedient society.

[Hank]

The southern hemisphere has opposite seasons from us. Our winter is their summer. Not sure if that's relevant at all. But, if the virus is consistent in both hemispheres, that would imply, at least to me, that it's not seasonal. 

[Brawndo]

13 minutes ago, Hank said:

The southern hemisphere has opposite seasons from us. Our winter is their summer. Not sure if that's relevant at all. But, if the virus is consistent in both hemispheres, that would imply, at least to me, that it's not seasonal. 

The Northern Hemisphere actually bases how severe the influenza season will be based on the data from the Southern Hemisphere particularly Australia. 

[spndnchz]

Of all times for my modem to quit. Fml

[Indabuff]

If a vaccine for this is indeed possible then we'd all get vaccinated and be safe against it in the future unless it mutated, no?  Maybe this has been addressed on here and I missed it.

[Weave]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

Australian PM just blasted his country and started the beginning of “Draconian” measures that “could be in place for 6 months” due to lack of response to requests and suggestions.

That is the opposite of an obedient society.

Singapore is the obedient society, not Australia.  I didn’t think I worded my reply to suggest that.

I don’t think it is any coincidence that the cultures with obedience more deeply ingrained are handling this better.

[TheAud]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

Australian PM just blasted his country and started the beginning of “Draconian” measures that “could be in place for 6 months” due to lack of response to requests and suggestions.

That is the opposite of an obedient society.

Descendants of criminals I tell you!!!

[Weave]

53 minutes ago, Hank said:

The southern hemisphere has opposite seasons from us. Our winter is their summer. Not sure if that's relevant at all. But, if the virus is consistent in both hemispheres, that would imply, at least to me, that it's not seasonal. 

That was my point. The two countries that jump out at me as having trends similar to Europe and US are Australia and Brazil.  Strongly suggests to me that a seasonal response may be wishful thinking

[Taro T]

1 minute ago, Weave said:

That was my point. The two countries that jump out at me as having trends similar to Europe and US are Australia and Brazil.  Strongly suggests to me that a seasonal response may be wishful thinking

You posted Singapore rather than Brazil which was a source of confusion.  Thanks for the clarification. ?

But the large economic ties between China and both Austrailia and Brazil don't necessarily rule out a seasonality to how this will ultimately spread.

Though, their having high cases isn't encouraging.

[Weave]

2 minutes ago, Taro T said:

You posted Singapore rather than Brazil which was a source of confusion.  Thanks for the clarification. ?

But the large economic ties between China and both Austrailia and Brazil don't necessarily rule out a seasonality to how this will ultimately spread.

Though, their having high cases isn't encouraging.

Singapore was specifically mentioned in the article I read due to its tropical climate, the lack of a cold season.  But Brazil is on that graph as one of only a couple of southern hemisphere countries, and their rate of disease spread is trending along with the western European countries still in their cold season.

[Taro T]

Just now, Weave said:

Singapore was specifically mentioned in the article I read due to its tropical climate, the lack of a cold season.  But Brazil is on that graph as one of only a couple of southern hemisphere countries, and their rate of disease spread is trending along with the western European countries still in their cold season.

And Singapore has many economic ties to China so they likely had a fairly large number of individuals exposed to people that were infected.  As of today, they had 300 something cases (had the actual # posted above).  That that isn't higher could be due to the ability of that government to shut stuff down, could be due to being in a tropical climate, other, or a combination.

With Singapore having close to 6MM people, 300+ cases seems small from a cursory view.

[Stoner]

27 minutes ago, Weave said:

Singapore is the obedient society, not Australia.  I didn’t think I worded my reply to suggest that.

I don’t think it is any coincidence that the cultures with obedience more deeply ingrained are handling this better.

And cultures that honor the elderly more than we do? Those Spring Break videos turned my stomach. (And I acknowledge it was cherry-picking — still, those kids were there doing what they were doing.)

[Weave]

21 minutes ago, Taro T said:

And Singapore has many economic ties to China so they likely had a fairly large number of individuals exposed to people that were infected.  As of today, they had 300 something cases (had the actual # posted above).  That that isn't higher could be due to the ability of that government to shut stuff down, could be due to being in a tropical climate, other, or a combination.

With Singapore having close to 6MM people, 300+ cases seems small from a cursory view.

I’m not sure why you are debating me.  This was another epidemiologist saying this, not me.  I suppose you’re more than welcome to question him though.

Its not like questioning these folks hasn’t gotten us to our current situation.....

[Stoner]

I just watched Dr. Leana Wen on CNN. Her caption was "Emergency Room Physician." I've seen a lot of people like her on TV, coming to us from their homes on less than HD video feeds. This is the first time I bothered to google one. She talked about how afraid health care workers are, both on the job and when they get home to loved ones. She was thanked by host Fredricka Whitfield for her selfless service yada yada yada.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leana_Wen

(I'll gladly apologize if Dr. Wen has stopped doing the latest things that are on her resume to return to her old gig of working in ERs.)

Edited March 22, 2020 by PASabreFan

[SwampD]

21 minutes ago, PASabreFan said:

I just watched Dr. Leana Wen on CNN. Her caption was "Emergency Room Physician." I've seen a lot of people like her on TV, coming to us from their homes on less than HD video feeds. This is the first time I bothered to google one. She talked about how afraid health care workers are, both on the job and when they get home to loved ones. She was thanked by host Fredricka Whitfield for her selfless service yada yada yada.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leana_Wen

(I'll gladly apologize if Dr. Wen has stopped doing the latest things that are on her resume to return to her old gig of working in ERs.)

On Thursday, I had to build three more machines for broadcast to accommodate all the Zoom and Skype we are now using instead of sending people to studios.

[carpandean]

5 hours ago, PASabreFan said:

Are your comparisons to flu? My understanding is it's a lot more infectious than flu, how long you can shed virus before showing symptoms, how long you shed even after recovery, how many people you can infect etc. Are the outcomes worse? The mortality rate might be around 10x the flu.

As for the second part, thanks for helping with my anxiety!

Yes, the flu.  In Outbreak, everyone who came near the carrier ended up catching it, which resulted in liquefied organs and eventually death.  That's what I meant by "on the scale of what a virus could do."  Here, the vast majority of people infected have mild symptoms, if any (which, by the way, makes that actual death rate lower than the % confirmed cases who die.)  It's definitely worse, but just not as much worse as I would have expected (before all this happened) to have shut down the country.

(To be clear: I wasn't saying that those people were right.)

[Taro T]

3 hours ago, Weave said:

I’m not sure why you are debating me.  This was another epidemiologist saying this, not me.  I suppose you’re more than welcome to question him though.

Its not like questioning these folks hasn’t gotten us to our current situation.....

Not meaning to come across as debating.  Truly isn't the goal; that's a trouble with written communication vs in person - tone and inflection are lost.  Apologies there.  Simply trying to understand your position better.

(Ignoring the snark of the rest of your post.)

[Neo]

I am not the chief executive of anything as large or important as the various executives on today’s world stage.  I do have a mini-kingdom.  Very mini. Reading Too Big to Fail and The Big Short in 2010 and 2011 was informative.  Later on, I saw a lot of things from my sofa that I didn’t see when yelling into a telephone or standing before an assembly years earlier.   I’ll draw my conclusions in 2021.

No one’s gonna be perfect, of course.  Perhaps, no one person is even going to be pretty good.  Where does this confidence to assess come from?  I ask both sides.

You go to war with the army you got.  History will dole out medals and reprimands tomorrow.

[SwampD]

Why do people think anyone dropped the ball?

It’s hubris to think that we could have stopped the virus from getting here. People will get it. People will die. As long as our health care system can stay ahead of the demand, then what happened was supposed to happen and we will be fine.

It’s a health crisis that took a financial crisis to beat. We have ways of getting out of financial crises. We always do.

Edited March 23, 2020 by SwampD

[Indabuff]

Please let's not have this thread shut down, again.  I think there is some valuable insight to be had here by people in the know.  I understand that politics plays a significant role in all of this but there are other places on this website it can be done.  I too have a political opinion on this but I won't let it get in the way of an update on a hospital status, how to make your own hand sanitizer or how Shrader knows where all the edible meat is.  Suffice to say I don't trust anyone at this point besides my own instinct.  

[Zamboni]

7 minutes ago, Indabuff said:

Please let's not have this thread shut down, again.  I think there is some valuable insight to be had here by people in the know.  I understand that politics plays a significant role in all of this but there are other places on this website it can be done.  I too have a political opinion on this but I won't let it get in the way of an update on a hospital status, how to make your own hand sanitizer or how Shrader knows where all the edible meat is.  Suffice to say I don't trust anyone at this point besides my own instinct.  

I agree. I think this is a halfway decent thread to get updates about the virus, the world impact, the local impact etc ...

This thread does not need to be political commentary for posters to whine and complain how much they don’t like the current commander in chief. Or the failures he alone (in their opinion) has made.

Take that garbage to the political thread. And I would say the same exact thing if this happened 5 years ago, 10 years ago, or 15 years ago. Respect others in this thread who keep their mouths shut and don’t spout political stuff. They don’t want to read that crap from you! Even if they do or don’t like the current administration. It’s disrespectful to the posters that don’t want any political opinion in this thread. 
Bloody hell.

[Zamboni]

There's drug combo to shorten coronavirus, French researchers say!

https://www.foxnews.com/science/french-researchers-publish-antimalarial-and-antibiotics-combination-that-could-shorten-covid-19

 

[Wyldnwoody44]

In laymans terms, quinine essentially opens pathways into the RNA, this is where zinc is needed to inhibit a step of replication to basically kill off the virus. 

Azithromycin slightly modulates the immune system and also helps prevent further pneumonia/lung infection/ARDS, in mild to moderate cases. Vitamin D3 helps the absorption of zinc. 

Taking the plaquenil (quinine) needs to be accompanied by some form of zinc to really take hold. This has been true for the family of Corona viruses for decades. I don't understand why or how this is considered "moving mountains" or great reveals from the FDA. 

It's more complicated that this, obviously, but that's to put it in terms that are easy to digest. 

[spndnchz]

Easy boys. 

I know this might be a great place to vent right now. But let’s keep the junk in the politics thread.