COVID-19

[Zamboni]

FDA approves first rapid coronavirus test with 45 minutes detection time!

 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-fda-idUSKBN218105

[Neo]

11 minutes ago, SwampD said:

Just kidding. Jersey is shutting down at 9pm tonight. Placed an order online waited 2 hours, went in and they handed it to me. Just got back.

I know you were kidding.  Me, too.  I know nothing about guitars!

[bunomatic]

Saw a picture today of the inside of a store in Denmark and what they do to stop hoarding. The rack of hand sanitizer was priced-buy one at $4.95 and get the second bottle for $95.00

[Wyldnwoody44]

1 minute ago, bunomatic said:

Saw a picture today of the inside of a store in Denmark and what they do to stop hoarding. The rack of hand sanitizer was priced-buy one at $4.95 and get the second bottle for $95.00

I appreciate this ?

[Eleven]

4 hours ago, SwampD said:

What about Guitar Center?

I fret that it is not essential

[bunomatic]

36 minutes ago, Eleven said:

I fret that it is not essential

Ah. You thought we wouldn’t pick up on that.

[MakeSabresGrr8Again]

5 minutes ago, bunomatic said:

Ah. You thought we wouldn’t pick up on that.

I think he was stringing you along.

[Zamboni]

We all need to take a different tone. Or is it, sing a different tune?

 

[MakeSabresGrr8Again]

I saw a g-string yesterday...oh wait, that wasn't on a guitar.

[Ogre]

2 minutes ago, MakeSabresGrr8Again said:

I saw a g-string yesterday...oh wait, that wasn't on a guitar.

The mirror?

[Hank]

This is unprecedented. No hockey in Canada. No NBA in America. No soccer in Europe or South America. No rugby in Australia or New Zealand. No UFC anywhere on the globe. Restaurants, movie theaters and schools are closed. Anyone still comparing carona to the flu is, at best.... naive?

[Stoner]

22 minutes ago, Hank said:

This is unprecedented. No hockey in Canada. No NBA in America. No soccer in Europe or South America. No rugby in Australia or New Zealand. No UFC anywhere on the globe. Restaurants, movie theaters and schools are closed. Anyone still comparing carona to the flu is, at best.... naive?

They think they know better. Everyone else is overreacting. In an ultra-capitalist country like ours, to basically tank the economy, what does that tell you? The thing is, if the mitigation tactics work, and the pandemic is not as bad as feared, these bozos will take a victory lap like no other we've seen.

[Taro T]

Some questions:

When the infection rate starts ramping down and it appears that we can come out of crisis mode, how do people expect to see that happen?

Will there simply be an "all clear" signal given with people and businesses allowed to go back to normal essentially overnight, or will it be more gradual?

Also, how quickly do things go back into lockdown should we see a respiking of cases?

Really don't have any idea how this will all play out from here, but thought it would be interesting to see what others thought.  Hopefully, it might even add some hope.

[SwampD]

4 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Some questions:

When the infection rate starts ramping down and it appears that we can come out of crisis mode, how do people expect to see that happen?

Will there simply be an "all clear" signal given with people and businesses allowed to go back to normal essentially overnight, or will it be more gradual?

Also, how quickly do things go back into lockdown should we see a respiking of cases?

Really don't have any idea how this will all play out from here, but thought it would be interesting to see what others thought.  Hopefully, it might even add some hope.

It’s all about the curve. As long as the number of cases can be held under the capacity of the healthcare system, until it has gone through enough people until we know they can handle the rest. That’s why we need testing, to know who is no longer at risk because they already had a mild case and didn’t know it.

Edited March 22, 2020 by SwampD

[SwampD]

11 minutes ago, PASabreFan said:

They think they know better. Everyone else is overreacting. In an ultra-capitalist country like ours, to basically tank the economy, what does that tell you? The thing is, if the mitigation tactics work, and the pandemic is not as bad as feared, these bozos will take a victory lap like no other we've seen.

I think there is an overreaction, to a point. I also think the mitigation tactics will work. How could they not.

Am I overreacting by getting my flu shot? To some, the flu isn’t as bad.

[darksabre]

4 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Some questions:

When the infection rate starts ramping down and it appears that we can come out of crisis mode, how do people expect to see that happen?

Will there simply be an "all clear" signal given with people and businesses allowed to go back to normal essentially overnight, or will it be more gradual?

Also, how quickly do things go back into lockdown should we see a respiking of cases?

Really don't have any idea how this will all play out from here, but thought it would be interesting to see what others thought.  Hopefully, it might even add some hope.

I believe in China they were taking a gradual approach. I think in a few weeks, if things go well, we'll see the whole thing basically go in reverse. 75% employees, 50% employees, back to normal. Then they'll start reversing the gatherings restrictions a little bit at a time. I think we're going to be doing some level of social distancing until the end of May at best.

[Taro T]

Just now, SwampD said:

It’s all about the curve. As long as the number of cases can be held under the capacity of the healthcare system, until it has gone through enough people until we know they can ride out the rest. That’s why we need testing, to know who is no longer at risk because they already had a mild case and didn’t know it.

Yes, it is.  Though your post brings up the question of how extensive does testing end up?  Really don't see them getting to a point where everybody gets tested, whether symptomatic or not. But don't have a good idea of where that ends either.

My questions were beyond that, or at least their intent was to be.  How do we wind back out of this lockdown?

[dudacek]

I think it will be slowly and cautiously.

And it will vary depending on where you are and the knowledge gained between now and when the number of new cases starts falling off.

Wuhan is going for 14 days without a new case before lifting theirs, I believe. The world will be watching to see what happens next.

[Taro T]

12 minutes ago, darksabre said:

I believe in China they were taking a gradual approach. I think in a few weeks, if things go well, we'll see the whole thing basically go in reverse. 75% employees, 50% employees, back to normal. Then they'll start reversing the gatherings restrictions a little bit at a time. I think we're going to be doing some level of social distancing until the end of May at best.

I am still hopeful (though by no means expectant) that this virus, much like its distant cousin, the rhinovirus, and it's non-related but similarly acting flu- virus family, winds up having a seasonality to it.

Based on patterns of where the virus has had its most pronounced effects, primarily in the latitudes that have weather similar to ours (awesome, <_<), am hopeful that we'll see that effect.

And if we do see it, it won't mean that the steps enacted to slow the spread weren't correct; it'll actually suggest there was a great deal of merit to them.  They bought many of our population's vulnerable members time to get through this 1st wave.

Edited March 22, 2020 by Taro T

[Weave]

30 minutes ago, Taro T said:

I am still hopeful (though by no means expectant) that this virus, much like its distant cousin, the rhinovirus, and it's non-related but similarly acting flu- virus family, winds up having a seasonality to it.

Based on patterns of where the virus has had its most pronounced effects, primarily in the latitudes that have weather similar to ours (awesome, <_<), am hopeful that we'll see that effect.

And if we do see it, it won't mean that the steps enacted to slow the spread weren't correct; it'll actually suggest there was a great deal of merit to them.  They bought many of our population's vulnerable members time to get through this 1st wave.

Singapore and Australia currently disagree.

 

I just read an article this AM discsussing likelihood that this may be a seasonal virus.  The concern is, Singapore and Australia are effected enough right now to suggest there is not a seasonal component.

Edited March 22, 2020 by Weave

[carpandean]

52 minutes ago, PASabreFan said:

They think they know better. Everyone else is overreacting. In an ultra-capitalist country like ours, to basically tank the economy, what does that tell you? The thing is, if the mitigation tactics work, and the pandemic is not as bad as feared, these bozos will take a victory lap like no other we've seen.

It's an easy thing to think because, on the the scales of what a virus could potentially do, it's not that much more infectious and the outcomes are not that much worse  ... this isn't the virus in Outbreak, after all ... but the combination is enough to push the system past its capacity to handle. 

The scariest part is that, if this is what happens with something that doesn't seem that scary, what would happen if someone (even mother nature) engineers/releases something that is that scary. ?

[Stoner]

50 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Some questions:

When the infection rate starts ramping down and it appears that we can come out of crisis mode, how do people expect to see that happen?

Will there simply be an "all clear" signal given with people and businesses allowed to go back to normal essentially overnight, or will it be more gradual?

Also, how quickly do things go back into lockdown should we see a respiking of cases?

Really don't have any idea how this will all play out from here, but thought it would be interesting to see what others thought.  Hopefully, it might even add some hope.

I'll chime in (B+ in Earth Science, School St. Junior High, 1979; 53 years of personal contact with microbes). Dr. Fauci addressed the first question yesterday and there wasn't followup or much coverage of it even though IMHO it was the most important thing said. To paraphrase he said he is sure the mitigation is working, but it can't be proven yet in the data. (Sorry, that wasn't what you were asking. I'll leave it).

I think it will be gradual. I've heard this will come in waves, hopefully with each successive wave less impactful than the last. There will be a "new normal" of heightened periods of mitigation from time to time until there's a vaccine.

OTOH, former FDA director Dr. Gottlieb had this to say on Face the Nation today:

Quote

There should be some form of mitigation across the whole country because we're all at risk. But we need to start thinking about how we transition away from that. Come April, come May, when the epidemic curve starts coming down, we can't just take our foot off the brake immediately. We need to start it- start including and introducing what we call case based interventions, trying to do mass screening and identify people who either are infected or who've been in close contact with people who've been infected and go towards more of an individual person approach rather than a population level approach.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/transcript-scott-gottlieb-discusses-coronavirus-on-face-the-nation-march-22-2020/

[Taro T]

16 minutes ago, Weave said:

Singapore and Australia currently disagree.

Perhaps.  1,081 cases in Austrailia; 385 cases in Singapore.  Haven't seen how their case rates have progressed.  (Expect that data is out there, but haven't seen it.)  Nor have any data regarding how much direct contact their respective citizenry's have had with residents of Wuhan.

That isn't encouraging but there still are far more cases in NH temperate zones than in other regions.  Seasonality doesn't mean people don't get summer colds, it just leaves us with far fewer of those than winter colds.

[Stoner]

5 minutes ago, carpandean said:

It's an easy thing to think because, on the the scales of what a virus could potentially do, it's not that much more infectious and the outcomes are not that much worse  ... this isn't the virus in Outbreak, after all ... but the combination is enough to push the system past its capacity to handle. 

The scariest part is that, if this is what happens with something that doesn't seem that scary, what would happen if someone (even mother nature) engineers/releases something that is that scary. ?

Are your comparisons to flu? My understanding is it's a lot more infectious than flu, how long you can shed virus before showing symptoms, how long you shed even after recovery, how many people you can infect etc. Are the outcomes worse? The mortality rate might be around 10x the flu.

As for the second part, thanks for helping with my anxiety!

[Stoner]

1 hour ago, SwampD said:

It’s all about the curve. As long as the number of cases can be held under the capacity of the healthcare system, until it has gone through enough people until we know they can handle the rest. That’s why we need testing, to know who is no longer at risk because they already had a mild case and didn’t know it.

An antibody treatment is being talked about a lot. So knowing where to get those antibodies would be helpful. Yo can also return a lot of people to society if you know who's immune (immunity remains not quite the slam dunk you would think; the question gets asked a lot of experts, and the answers range from, "Almost certainly" to "We're not sure"). Does anyone know if they would need a large supply of antibodies?

1 hour ago, SwampD said:

I think there is an overreaction, to a point. I also think the mitigation tactics will work. How could they not.

Am I overreacting by getting my flu shot? To some, the flu isn’t as bad.

Ah, so that's what you've been getting at. You little rascal.