Hank Posted March 20, 2020 Report Posted March 20, 2020 1 minute ago, darksabre said: Looks like the lockdown is here folks Very interesting.
nfreeman Posted March 20, 2020 Report Posted March 20, 2020 Here's an interesting piece written by a Stanford professor of medicine and epidemiology that echoes some of @Wyldnwoody44's concerns: https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/ Quote Reported case fatality rates, like the official 3.4% rate from the World Health Organization, cause horror — and are meaningless. Patients who have been tested for SARS-CoV-2 are disproportionately those with severe symptoms and bad outcomes. As most health systems have limited testing capacity, selection bias may even worsen in the near future. The one situation where an entire, closed population was tested was the Diamond Princess cruise ship and its quarantine passengers. The case fatality rate there was 1.0%, but this was a largely elderly population, in which the death rate from Covid-19 is much higher. Projecting the Diamond Princess mortality rate onto the age structure of the U.S. population, the death rate among people infected with Covid-19 would be 0.125%. But since this estimate is based on extremely thin data — there were just seven deaths among the 700 infected passengers and crew — the real death rate could stretch from five times lower (0.025%) to five times higher (0.625%). It is also possible that some of the passengers who were infected might die later, and that tourists may have different frequencies of chronic diseases — a risk factor for worse outcomes with SARS-CoV-2 infection — than the general population. Adding these extra sources of uncertainty, reasonable estimates for the case fatality ratio in the general U.S. population vary from 0.05% to 1%. That huge range markedly affects how severe the pandemic is and what should be done. A population-wide case fatality rate of 0.05% is lower than seasonal influenza. If that is the true rate, locking down the world with potentially tremendous social and financial consequences may be totally irrational. It’s like an elephant being attacked by a house cat. Frustrated and trying to avoid the cat, the elephant accidentally jumps off a cliff and dies. 1
triumph_communes Posted March 20, 2020 Report Posted March 20, 2020 (edited) 8 minutes ago, nfreeman said: Here's an interesting piece written by a Stanford professor of medicine and epidemiology that echoes some of @Wyldnwoody44's concerns: https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/ This is what I was saying earlier. Though, even with the fatality rate likely being lower, it is indeed much more contagious which is the reason for some of the panicking. Everything else is one huge social experiment. Edited March 20, 2020 by triumph_communes 1
FogBat Posted March 20, 2020 Report Posted March 20, 2020 32 minutes ago, darksabre said: Looks like the lockdown is here folks Given some of the responses I received over concerns about what California did, it only seems reasonable that the farming industry will carry on as usual. 1
darksabre Posted March 20, 2020 Report Posted March 20, 2020 5 minutes ago, Crosschecking said: Given some of the responses I received over concerns about what California did, it only seems reasonable that the farming industry will carry on as usual. Yeah, they're definitely essential. Same with most infrastructure work, finance, health services, etc.
LGR4GM Posted March 20, 2020 Report Posted March 20, 2020 35 minutes ago, nfreeman said: Here's an interesting piece written by a Stanford professor of medicine and epidemiology that echoes some of @Wyldnwoody44's concerns: https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/ Noticed you said nothing about the politics on the other page. Cheers. ?
LGR4GM Posted March 20, 2020 Report Posted March 20, 2020 Here's the opposite end of that .05, the 1 rate. General population, 50% get the virus, 1% of that is... what? 1.5 million deaths.
North Buffalo Posted March 20, 2020 Report Posted March 20, 2020 On the ground in Yonkers and NewRochelle both Hospitals getting swamped... downstate looks like almost a ghost town... very few people out.
nfreeman Posted March 20, 2020 Report Posted March 20, 2020 30 minutes ago, LGR4GM said: Noticed you said nothing about the politics on the other page. Cheers. ? What politics on what other page?
Stoner Posted March 20, 2020 Report Posted March 20, 2020 (edited) Really interesting, almost dramatic developments in this presser at the White House. If it's actually true, the federal government has ordered millions of units of chloroquine and patients in trouble will start to get it under the auspices of "compassionate use" (sort of a Hail Mary). Dr. Fauci said the results will be used as part of the trial that is being conducted to see if the medicine is safe and effective in the context of Covid-19. Hope is a good thing, I heard once. Edited March 20, 2020 by PASabreFan
LGR4GM Posted March 20, 2020 Report Posted March 20, 2020 (edited) 23 hours ago, Cascade Youth said: Trump agrees 22 hours ago, North Buffalo said: Scary sounds like more testing needed but promising... Trump agrees with French socialists... the world is truly coming to an end... sarcasm Hey I work at St Joseph's Hospital in Yonkers... just saying and we are doing something similar. 10 minutes ago, nfreeman said: What politics on what other page? If posting that Mike Pence, science denier, is being put in charge of the COVID19 response team is a political post that required a WARNING from you... how the ***** doesn't the same thing apply here? I will tell you why, I made a joke of a meme along with it and it was critical of Pence and that, that is... a bridge too far. have a good day. And further this is the entire problem I have with your fake censorship. This thread inherently will have politics involved because it should. Politicians will be responsible for deaths before this is over based on how they respond. The conversation should include how they are responding though. Edited March 20, 2020 by LGR4GM 1
Wyldnwoody44 Posted March 20, 2020 Report Posted March 20, 2020 @nfreeman I'm with that professor, I don't see this anywhere near ebola or H1N1 in terms of actual disease illness and fatality. I wish I could more eloquently say what grasp I have on this, but I fail to at this time. I'm more worried about the economy and the potential fallout and depression from all of this, almost more than the medical side of it. 1
darksabre Posted March 20, 2020 Report Posted March 20, 2020 2 minutes ago, Wyldnwoody44 said: @nfreeman I'm with that professor, I don't see this anywhere near ebola or H1N1 in terms of actual disease illness and fatality. I wish I could more eloquently say what grasp I have on this, but I fail to at this time. I'm more worried about the economy and the potential fallout and depression from all of this, almost more than the medical side of it. Even just back of the envelope math using NYS numbers so far (where it appears testing volume is highest) seem to align with the idea that the death rate is probably less than 1%. All of this could have been avoided if testing had been ramped up like...a month ago. We'd probably have a much better grasp of reality. 1
Wyldnwoody44 Posted March 20, 2020 Report Posted March 20, 2020 Just now, darksabre said: Even just back of the envelope math using NYS numbers so far (where it appears testing volume is highest) seem to align with the idea that the death rate is probably less than 1%. All of this could have been avoided if testing had been ramped up like...a month ago. We'd probably have a much better grasp of reality. We keep tripping over ourselves time and time again with this, especially with the local health dept actions, it's not streamlined in the least, and it's getting into dangerous medicine territory. I hope the world learns how to handle an actual pandemic from this, we'd surely all be toast if this thing was deadlier.
Zamboni Posted March 20, 2020 Report Posted March 20, 2020 The problem from where I stand is posters can’t just say a politicians name. They have to be immature and call them a slang or insult. Get your point across in a factual way without the immature slangs or insulting terms and maybe just maybe more posts will stay. Posters points get muddled and loses it’s effect when one feels it oh so necessary to include that garbage. Just share your factual points without name calling, insults, and slangs for politicians. It’s not that hard. For some ... Jeez. 2 1
Zamboni Posted March 20, 2020 Report Posted March 20, 2020 3 minutes ago, Wyldnwoody44 said: We keep tripping over ourselves time and time again with this, especially with the local health dept actions, it's not streamlined in the least, and it's getting into dangerous medicine territory. I hope the world learns how to handle an actual pandemic from this, we'd surely all be toast if this thing was deadlier. And this process, unpreparedness, and way of thinking which has gotten us to this stage at this time has been in effect for decades. Not just the last three years. The medical community as a whole, nationally, globally, needs to rethink process and preparedness. 1
Stoner Posted March 20, 2020 Report Posted March 20, 2020 8 minutes ago, darksabre said: Even just back of the envelope math using NYS numbers so far (where it appears testing volume is highest) seem to align with the idea that the death rate is probably less than 1%. All of this could have been avoided if testing had been ramped up like...a month ago. We'd probably have a much better grasp of reality. The number of people who had/have it will never be known. The confirmed cases is just a subset of that number. But the number of deaths will never be known as well. How many died in the last six weeks with the death certificate saying influenza or pneumonia? From every indication the mortality rate is much higher than flu. High mortality rate, highly contagious, novel virus, no vaccine, no anti-virals. Yeah, why all the fuss?
shrader Posted March 20, 2020 Report Posted March 20, 2020 6 minutes ago, Zamboni said: And this process, unpreparedness, and way of thinking which has gotten us to this stage at this time has been in effect for decades. Not just the last three years. The medical community as a whole, nationally, globally, needs to rethink process and preparedness. Hopefully that will be one positive to come from all of this. We'll be better prepared to deal with something in the future.
darksabre Posted March 20, 2020 Report Posted March 20, 2020 1 minute ago, PASabreFan said: The number of people who had/have it will never be known. The confirmed cases is just a subset of that number. But the number of deaths will never be known as well. How many died in the last six weeks with the death certificate saying influenza or pneumonia? From every indication the mortality rate is much higher than flu. High mortality rate, highly contagious, novel virus, no vaccine, no anti-virals. Yeah, why all the fuss? It's all speculation, unfortunately. The individuals responsible for getting out in front of this didn't do their jobs, so now our data set will really never be complete and we'll probably never know just how deadly this thing is. All I know is that in places where testing his really high, the percentages for infection as well as deaths are lower. South Korea's numbers are really good. A lot of the places that aren't testing as much look a lot worse. California looks worse compared to NYS right now. 1
triumph_communes Posted March 20, 2020 Report Posted March 20, 2020 The placebo effect is real and proven time and time again If the cheap drug doesn't have serious side-effects for most anyone-- even if it's baseline is a placebo that is an improvement 1 hour ago, PASabreFan said: The number of people who had/have it will never be known. The confirmed cases is just a subset of that number. But the number of deaths will never be known as well. How many died in the last six weeks with the death certificate saying influenza or pneumonia? From every indication the mortality rate is much higher than flu. High mortality rate, highly contagious, novel virus, no vaccine, no anti-virals. Yeah, why all the fuss? Every year they multiply the reported flu cases by orders of magnitude to account for those who never even went to the doctor over it, or even realized they had it. This is no different. "From every indication" is a total lie.
Weave Posted March 20, 2020 Report Posted March 20, 2020 Don't know how accurate these numbers are, but if they are, it justifies the strong response. 1
Weave Posted March 20, 2020 Report Posted March 20, 2020 59 minutes ago, triumph_communes said: The placebo effect is real and proven time and time again If the cheap drug doesn't have serious side-effects for most anyone-- even if it's baseline is a placebo that is an improvement Every year they multiply the reported flu cases by orders of magnitude to account for those who never even went to the doctor over it, or even realized they had it. This is no different. "From every indication" is a total lie. I really hate the word "lie" here. This sort of word choice is why we cannot have good conversations on social media. Lie implies a level of intended misrepresentation that I seriously doubt PA intends. There is no reason to assume the worst. Instead of lie, a less confrontational and less accusatory word is better used here. 1
Scottysabres Posted March 20, 2020 Report Posted March 20, 2020 And to think, I started that first covid thread and people didn't take it seriously. I even tried a little humor with those that didn't, in this thread, and still, the condemnation came. This'll be my last post on the subject, the fact is, people were and are dying. Whether it has seasonality or not, whether it can be eradicated, remains to be seen as of yet. But the alarm I was sounding early, as a non medical individual, was based on conversations I was and still am having to date. Some will mock, some with disdain, all of that falls to the way side. People are dying, that is a fact. See y'all in the hockey threads, look forward to some Bills talk as well. In the meantime, I still have to go to work ? . 1
Stoner Posted March 20, 2020 Report Posted March 20, 2020 1 hour ago, triumph_communes said: The placebo effect is real and proven time and time again If the cheap drug doesn't have serious side-effects for most anyone-- even if it's baseline is a placebo that is an improvement Every year they multiply the reported flu cases by orders of magnitude to account for those who never even went to the doctor over it, or even realized they had it. This is no different. "From every indication" is a total lie. Another SabreSpacer who knows more than Dr. Fauci.
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