COVID-19

[Derrico]

One last rant I need to get out.  I'm so sick of hearing the media announce a death and immediately start talking about the individuals underlying health conditions.  Incredibly disrespectful to report the death and immediately introduce an underlying connotation that it was somehow their fault almost.  I know it's to 'calm' the public but if that's my dad or aunt or whomever then I just find it so belittling.  You know what is counted as underlying health conditions?  High blood pressure and diabetes.  I wouldn't be surprised that the North American population has a higher concentration of both those conditions then any other continent.  When you start including even high blood pressure the death rate jumps significantly greater then 1%.  Also, when did it become socially acceptable to reassure all the younger people that if they're young and healthy they will probably be just fine??  The elderly are societies most vulnerable population and there is so much selfishness going around reassuring younger people they will be just fine.  This lowers young peoples perceived risk of the virus and will lead to increase spread rates as a result.  JFC, I can't believe the dismissive attitude many still have over this virus.  No, there isn't a need to buy 800 million rolls of toilet paper, but yes you should be prepared and regardless of your age or health, please take all necessary precautions to consider social distancing measures even if you're unlikely to get really sick from this.  Think about your mom, dad, grandparents, neighbors.  Every virologist that I've seen interviewed over the past two months has beaten the drum about limiting the spread early.  It could have dramatic results on the overall mortality rates when all is said and done.  Telling younger people they don't need to be overly concerned will lead to greater spread rates and an even greater burden on our hospitals.  

[triumph_communes]

You don’t need to be a doctor to criticize metrics the WHO have been pumping out statistics of 3% death rates based upon all reported deaths and confirmed cases. Anyone with an ounce of awareness knows the reported number is severely under reported, and more so than the cause of deaths. You don’t have to be a doctor to know that the most representative data (ignoring genetic/cultural components) comes from the only country you can trust to have tested more than who they are nearly certain would have it- South Korea. Who only reported a 0.4% rate—- though the age break down made it clear above age 60, its 3-4%. Below age 60 so far every person had other big problems. 
 

Couple this with how fast it travels, yes, if we don’t flatten the curve it’s going to wreck havoc among the older population, and even then it still will— just hopefully enough hospital beds to handle it. 
 

Getting sick of this deference to the ‘experts’ bs.  That’s just propaganda. I deal with this crap at work all day. Experts have their place, and they are better than Karen, but you don’t need a damn title to think logically.

[Weave]

19 minutes ago, triumph_communes said:

 

Getting sick of this deference to the ‘experts’ bs.  That’s just propaganda. I deal with this crap at work all day. Experts have their place, and they are better than Karen, but you don’t need a damn title to think logically.

Its not propaganda.  Logic is only one leg of the structure.  Unless you have the training and access to the data your logic is of limited use.  We require training and access to data to allow someone to design bridges and structures too because logic and intelligence isn’t enough.

 

And propaganda?  Really?  What does the CDC and WHO have to gain by creating world stress over this?

Edited March 12, 2020 by Weave

[matter2003]

9 hours ago, kas23 said:

By show of hands...

 

Anyone still think it’s “just the flu”?

Well...I think when all is said and done they will realize that far more people got it than they initially thought and the mortality rate was about the same. I mean look at what is going on:

 

• Many places don't even have test kits to test people for it which is drastically lowering the number of "confirmed" cases.
• Up to 60% of people either have no symptoms or very minor symptoms resembling a cold, which means they wouldn't be getting tested, which REALLY lowers the number of "confirmed" cases AND helps it spread since they are still contagious.
• Even in some places that DO have test kits, they are not testing everyone who presents symptoms
• Several reputable reports are out there about China basically covering up the seriousness of the situation over there and drastically under reporting the number of people infected.

 

Common sense says there is no possible way this virus could have spread to this many countries this fast with only 120K people infected worldwide. No freaking way possible.  Which means the LIKELY number of people who have been infected is in the millions, which means the mortality rate is somewhere in the 0.3% - 1% range, similar to the flu.

Anyone who wants to take a bet on further research coming out in like 6 months or so showing the number of infections were at least 10X what they are reporting right now, I am all for it.  Easy money if you want to lose it.

Edited March 12, 2020 by matter2003

[Weave]

4 minutes ago, matter2003 said:

Well...I think when all is said and done they will realize that far more people got it than they initially thought and the mortality rate was about the same. I mean look at what is going on:

 

• Many places don't even have test kits to test people for it which is drastically lowering the number of "confirmed" cases.
• Up to 60% of people either have no symptoms or very minor symptoms resembling a cold, which means they wouldn't be getting tested, which REALLY lowers the number of "confirmed" cases AND helps it spread since they are still contagious.
• Even in some places that DO have test kits, they are not testing everyone who presents symptoms
• Several reputable reports are out there about China basically covering up the seriousness of the situation over there and drastically under reporting the number of people infected.

 

Common sense says there is no possible way this virus could have spread to this many countries this fast with only 120K people infected worldwide. No freaking way possible.  Which means the LIKELY number of people who have been infected is in the millions, which means the mortality rate is somewhere in the 0.3% - 1% range, similar to the flu.

Anyone who wants to take a bet on further research coming out in like 6 months or so showing the number of infections are at least 10X what they are reporting right now, I am all for it.  Easy money if you want to lose it.

You want to bet?  That’s cool.  But betting by ignoring recommendations and restrictions is betting someone else’s health.  Not exactly voluntary for the other guy.

[Claude_Verret]

1 hour ago, Weave said:

I know you are in the medical field.  As an engineer I am ill equipped to debate you on a medical subject.  Maybe this is a counterpoint of word choice and semantics, but published death rates and infection rates are higher than influenza, and the major world medical science organizations are treating this much more cautiously than influenza.  This all points to current data suggesting a more dangerous situation than influenza.  Are we reading that wrongly?

My background is developing diagnostic tests, some of which have been for influenza and have been PCR based so I'm most qualified to opine on that aspect.

However, any scientist can tell you that if you follow the scientific method then you don't reach conclusions based on incomplete data.  You can make educated guesses and design new studies based on preliminary data, but you can't say that this will be any milder or worse than the flu until the data is collected.  We are seeing way too many definitive conclusions based on an incomplete and constantly changing data set is all I'm saying.  

There are also so many confounding factors based on the early data we do have.  In south Korea for example, where they have a similar healthcare infrastructure to ours and have completed more widespread testing, the mortality rate seems to be much lower than other areas...based on the early data.  In China, a significantly higher percentage of the male population are smokers compared to western nations...any early data, as suspicious as it may be, has to be looked at through that prism.  The well documented lack of early diagnostic testing in this country also hampers our ability to get a clearer early picture of what is transpiring.  There are antiviral compounds being developed that might be fast tracked that could end up lowering the mortality rate.  I read a study recently about a physician in China who used plasma transfused to sick patients from covid19 recovered patients as a form of passive immunization that improved outcomes.   It's all evolving in real time and we won't know the final answer until it's all said and done.  Therefore all that can be done is to follow the basic hygiene principles that you've heard over and over and put in place some of the social distancing measures that we are currently seeing and to not claim to know things that the data won't let us say that we know just yet.

 

[GASabresIUFAN]

13 minutes ago, Weave said:

You want to bet?  That’s cool.  But betting by ignoring recommendations and restrictions is betting someone else’s health.  Not exactly voluntary for the other guy.

That’s not what he is saying.  He is saying the because the vast majority of cases are mild to extremely mild that most people, especially in China, wouldn’t have even known they had this new virus and wouldn’t have been tested.  How many people run to the doctor if they get a cold? Therefore the case count is extremely under reported and the death rate is inflated because of it.

I think Claude is saying the same thing.  

Edited March 12, 2020 by GASabresIUFAN

[matter2003]

4 minutes ago, Claude_Verret said:

My background is developing diagnostic tests, some of which have been for influenza and have been PCR based so I'm most qualified to opine on that aspect.

However, any scientist can tell you that if you follow the scientific method then you don't reach conclusions based on incomplete data.  You can make educated guesses and design new studies based on preliminary data, but you can't say that this will be any milder or worse than the flu until the data is collected.  We are seeing way too many definitive conclusions based on an incomplete and constantly changing data set is all I'm saying.  

There are also so many confounding factors based on the early data we do have.  In south Korea for example, where they have a similar healthcare infrastructure to ours and have completed more widespread testing, the mortality rate seems to be much lower than other areas...based on the early data.  In China, a significantly higher percentage of the male population are smokers compared to western nations...any early data, as suspicious as it may be, has to be looked at through that prism.  The well documented lack of early diagnostic testing in this country also hampers our ability to get a clearer early picture of what is transpiring.  There are antiviral compounds being developed that might be fast tracked that could end up lowering the mortality rate.  I read a study recently about a physician in China who used plasma transfused to sick patients from covid19 recovered patients as a form of passive immunization that improved outcomes.   It's all evolving in real time and we won't know the final answer until it's all said and done.  Therefore all that can be done is to follow the basic hygiene principles that you've heard over and over and put in place some of the social distancing measures that we are currently seeing and to not claim to know things that the data won't let us say that we know just yet.

 

I think it is safe to say that the claims that only 120K people have it worldwide is an absolute joke and defies any sort of logic as to how it could have spread this far this rapidly. 

[matter2003]

8 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

That’s not what he is saying.  He is saying the because the vast majority of case are mild to extremely mild that most people, especially in China, wouldn’t even know they had thus new virus and therefore wouldn’t have been tested.  Therefore the case count is extremely under reported and the death rate is inflated because of it.

Yes, exactly my point.  They are using a death rate calculation where the denominator is much lower than what it should be, thereby greatly inflating the numbers floated out there.

And why is there no concern about a REALLY deadly Lassa Virus outbreak in Nigeria right now that actually IS killing up to 25% of infected people?

Edited March 12, 2020 by matter2003

[GASabresIUFAN]

1 minute ago, matter2003 said:

Yes, exactly my point.  They are using a death rate calculation where the denominator is much lower than what it should be, thereby greatly inflating the numbers floated out there.

And why is there no concern about a REALLY deadly Lassa Virus outbreak in Nigeria right now that is killing up to 25% of infected people?

Because Lassa been around 30 years and hasn’t really spread much beyond Africa.

[matter2003]

Definitely going to stock up on Sambucol Elderberry extract...numerous scientific studies and tons of evidence from people who use it have shown that it prevents viruses from being able to enter cells and replicate by blocking the receptors the virus needs to target on human cells to gain entry.  It has shown to be effective against a wide variety of viruses, so there is a good chance it would be effective with COVID-19 as well.  Might not be enough to prevent someone from getting sick but a good chance it could really reduce the impact and lessen the recovery time and severity. IMHO, the elderly and other people who are at higher risk of death should have supplies of this on deck ready to go.

Its like the Karate Kid....if a virus cannot enter the cell, it cannot replicate.

 

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3056848/

https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/325055

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/04/190423133644.htm

http://www.sci-news.com/medicine/elderberries-influenza-virus-07145.html

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15080016

 

2 Studies directly pitting Elderberry vs. Tamiflu in flu patients -- Elderberry wins:

https://theherbaltoad.com/blog/elderberry-vs-tamiflu/

 

Cocktail of Elderberry, Green Tea and Cinnamon extracts shown to be effective against HIV:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19641233

 

Elderberry MetaAnalysis study shown to substantially reduce Upper Respiratory symptoms(COVID-19 is an upper Respiratory disease)

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30670267

 

Long research article citing numerous studies and talking about the effectiveness of elderberry in each(very effective against flu, bacterial infections and gingivitis):

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/259696401_An_Evidence-Based_Systematic_Review_of_Elderberry_and_Elderflower_Sambucus_nigra_by_the_Natural_Standard_Research_Collaboration

Edited March 12, 2020 by matter2003

[Claude_Verret]

4 minutes ago, matter2003 said:

I think it is safe to say that the claims that only 120K people have it worldwide is an absolute joke and defies any sort of logic as to how it could have spread this far this rapidly. 

Well there's a difference.  That is the number of confirmed (presumably by PCR) cases worldwide.  Certainly the number of people who have or had and have recovered from covid19 is much, much higher.

Another difference from the diagnostic perspective ....if you show up at your doctor with flu like symptoms you can be tested at the point of care by a rapid immunodiagnostic that all doctors offices have, a small portion of these positive patients will have samples sent to regional surveillance labs where further diagnostics are performed.  This is how the CDC compiles their weekly influenza surveillance reporting.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/fluactivitysurv.htm 

There is currently no such rapid point of care diagnostic for covid19, therefore all samples need to be sent out to public health labs for testing.  Even if we did have the millions of tests that were promised the throughput on this type of testing is quite low.  PCR needs to be conducted by highly trained scientists, in a well controlled lab workflow environment using specialized instruments.  I can easily see the next phase in the diagnostic debacle being complaints about long time to result as labs become inundated with samples to test.  Here is a copy of the official CDC covid-19 testing protocol to give people an idea of how labor intensive it is.

https://www.fda.gov/media/134922/download

 

 

 

[matter2003]

11 minutes ago, Claude_Verret said:

Well there's a difference.  That is the number of confirmed (presumably by PCR) cases worldwide.  Certainly the number of people who have or had and have recovered from covid19 is much, much higher.

Another difference from the diagnostic perspective ....if you show up at your doctor with flu like symptoms you can be tested at the point of care by a rapid immunodiagnostic that all doctors offices have, a small portion of these positive patients will have samples sent to regional surveillance labs where further diagnostics are performed.  This is how the CDC compiles their weekly influenza surveillance reporting.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/fluactivitysurv.htm 

There is currently no such rapid point of care diagnostic for covid19, therefore all samples need to be sent out to public health labs for testing.  Even if we did have the millions of tests that were promised the throughput on this type of testing is quite low.  PCR needs to be conducted by highly trained scientists, in a well controlled lab workflow environment using specialized instruments.  I can easily see the next phase in the diagnostic debacle being complaints about long time to result as labs become inundated with samples to test.  Here is a copy of the official CDC covid-19 testing protocol to give people an idea of how labor intensive it is.

https://www.fda.gov/media/134922/download

 

 

 

The flu tests suck, btw.  They take this giant Q-Tip and shove it up your nose...and it does NOT feel good...but the results come back in like 10 minutes.

Edited March 12, 2020 by matter2003

[Zamboni]

2 minutes ago, matter2003 said:

The flu tests suck, btw.  They take this giant Q-Tip and shove it up your nose...and it does NOT feel good...but the results come back in like 10 minutes.

Yea I’ve known about Elderberry for years. Great stuff. Won’t prevent you from getting the flu or a cold but it will reduce symptoms and shorten its cycle in most healthy people. Taking it once in a while is a good immune system boost too. 

[triumph_communes]

1 hour ago, Weave said:

Its not propaganda.  Logic is only one leg of the structure.  Unless you have the training and access to the data your logic is of limited use.  We require training and access to data to allow someone to design bridges and structures too because logic and intelligence isn’t enough.

 

And propaganda?  Really?  What does the CDC and WHO have to gain by creating world stress over this?

Here’s my soapbox:

Every interpretation of data comes down to STATS.  Just like half these message board conversations go. 
 

Yes, you should probably have the experience and a title to point out that the results from these tests should be thrown out because the test said positive, but the control sample was compromised blah blah blah blah. Just like a hockey player should distinguish between high and lower danger shots before getting all hissy about shooting percentages.

 

But once that super technical bit is over, I promise you, vast majority of scientists absolutely suck at stats and logic. Embarrassingly so imho. 
 

WHO literally took the officially reported numbers from all nations and added them up. A 4th grader analysis. They are vested in the interest of never actually making a conclusion they can be perceived wrong on ever, and making the only assumption that the whole world is acting in good faith is the least controversial one they can always plead ignorance on. Oh, and they become relevant when pandemics happen, so they are going to be sure to blow everything up. 
 

The CDC?  They are trying to hide that they messed up making the tests, and hide the numbers. Minimize the panic. They report to the president and keeping the markets in check so that businesses don’t shut down left and right is just as important as everything else right now. 
 

Keep in mind, nothing realistically is going to prevent the spread of this disease. Only the rate. 
 

China?  Iran?  The source of the majority of the data... is known for half a century to not be trustworthy with anything at all. 

12 minutes ago, Zamboni said:

Edited March 12, 2020 by triumph_communes

[matter2003]

15 minutes ago, Zamboni said:

Yea I’ve known about Elderberry for years. Great stuff. Won’t prevent you from getting the flu or a cold but it will reduce symptoms and shorten its cycle in most healthy people. Taking it once in a while is a good immune system boost too. 

Its possible it COULD prevent you from getting it, but that would mean you would have to take it religiously every day and that would get expensive...far easier to start taking it at the first sign of symptoms.

Edited March 12, 2020 by matter2003

[Derrico]

1 hour ago, Weave said:

You want to bet?  That’s cool.  But betting by ignoring recommendations and restrictions is betting someone else’s health.  Not exactly voluntary for the other guy.

This times a million.  
 

I think everyone is too focused on mortality rate for the virus itself.  There are reports 15% of cases require hospitalization.  Even conservative estimates say 40% of population may be impacted.  Run those numbers.  It’s not just dying from the virus.  It’s the impact to the entire health network that is concerning.  People who have a stroke it is so imperative to get to a hospital and treated immediately.  Now there are less paramedics and doctors available for all other illnesses and events. The mortality rate of literally every other health issue will also likely increase. 

Edited March 12, 2020 by Derrico

[Marvin]

In defence of the CDC and WHO:

They do the best they can with the information they have.  They are working with data from several recalcitrant countries and are making the best of it.  They have some of the best virologists, epidemiologists, etc. on the planet.  Their training is to not exaggerate.  Their analyses deserve our due respect; the confounding data and the limitations of their data mean they also deserve the due skepticism.  We should err on the side of the side of safety and discretion when we have gobs of misinformation and conflicting reports.

This is potentially life-or-death.  Please treat it as such.

[shrader]

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Because Lassa been around 30 years and hasn’t really spread much beyond Africa.

I don't know a thing about that one, but is it one where you practically have to drink the blood of the infected like ebola in order for transmission?  That's typically why they aren't too concerned in those cases.

[WildCard]

My buddy has been in Austria for the last week. Does this mean he's stuck over there?

[matter2003]

5 minutes ago, WildCard said:

My buddy has been in Austria for the last week. Does this mean he's stuck over there?

From what I understood Americans are able to come back, just not Europeans trying to come here.

[WildCard]

4 minutes ago, matter2003 said:

From what I understood Americans are able to come back, just not Europeans trying to come here.

I believe that's it, and he gets quarantined when he does come back

[shrader]

Here's what I don't understand.  A lot of people around here officially started working from home today, but yet traffic this morning was the worst it's been in a while.  It makes no sense.

[Eleven]

I read somewhere that it was a hoax, and now the NBA has suspended its season and the NHL may do the same.

If the NHL does suspend the season, what happens to the draft?  Do we see an equally-weighted lottery like the Crosby year?  (I bet no.  There's no incentive for the NHL to get a star to Pittsburgh and there is every incentive for the NHL to help Detroit.)

[bunomatic]

The only person to say publicly that it was a hoax was the guy that I shall not mention for reasons who also said his uncle was a super genius. Its not a hoax.