COVID-19

[That Aud Smell]

18 minutes ago, Scottysabres said:

Well, not for nothing, but the test site at 1200 Parker Blvd, Town of Tonawanda, ya the traffic all the way back to Sheridan and a good distance down Sheridan as well. And the language from the drivers, let's just say this is definitely channeling an inner New York City fever for many, yikes.

Holy shnikes - that's a mile of traffic

[Scottysabres]

20 minutes ago, That Aud Smell said:

Holy shnikes - that's a mile of traffic

Got my test, now I wait. Within a couple hours I'll get notification they said.

[nfreeman]

1 hour ago, That Aud Smell said:

I take as an article of faith that, while no government's approach is ideal, some are better than others. As for what the data supports, I'm just not sure. If Florida is imposing much stricter requirements on what constitutes a COVID-19 death than New York is, then I'm not sure what can be drawn from the data. Apples and oranges.

And I allow for the idea that there can be debate on whether COVID-19 hospital admissions and/or deaths are being over-reported. It's dang near impossible to get good information on that issue.

I'm certainly on board with viewing the data with a gimlet eye, but that should apply to NYS' data as well.  I'd also point out that if you discard the data, I'm not sure what is left to support any kind of conclusion about one state's approach vs others'.

[Scottysabres]

Wow, already got my results. Covid Negative.

Now I can go back to work, school I don't know about, but just informed them both of my results.

[SwampD]

38 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

I'm certainly on board with viewing the data with a gimlet eye, but that should apply to NYS' data as well.  I'd also point out that if you discard the data, I'm not sure what is left to support any kind of conclusion about one state's approach vs others'.

Are you actually saying that what was learned in NY and NJ at the beginning and then disseminated to the rest of the states played, no part in their survival rates improving,... including those in NY and NJ?

Raw data,... I now understand why LGR gets so twitchy when someone brings up +/-.

Edited December 22, 2020 by SwampD

[nfreeman]

15 minutes ago, SwampD said:

Are you actually saying that what was learned in NY and NJ at the beginning and then disseminated to the rest of the states played, no part in their survival rates improving,... including those in NY and NJ?

Raw data,... I now understand why LGR gets so twitchy when someone brings up +/-.

Huh?

I'm referring to the data that I linked to regarding current (i.e. last 7 days) Covid death rates.  That data shows that NY is currently doing much worse than Florida, i.e. 60% higher deaths per capita.  Aud and LGR questioned the reliability of the Florida data, which is reasonable enough, and my point is that the NYS data should be viewed with similar skepticism.

[That Aud Smell]

55 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

if you discard the data, I'm not sure what is left to support any kind of conclusion about one state's approach vs others'.

[That Aud Smell]

3 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

my point is that the NYS data should be viewed with similar skepticism.

I don't think that's supported by the facts I've heard and read reported. Florida's governor has meddled with science; New York's governor has, for the most part, followed science.

[SwampD]

7 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

Huh?

I'm referring to the data that I linked to regarding current (i.e. last 7 days) Covid death rates.  That data shows that NY is currently doing much worse than Florida, i.e. 60% higher deaths per capita.  Aud and LGR questioned the reliability of the Florida data, which is reasonable enough, and my point is that the NYS data should be viewed with similar skepticism.

Nevermind. A well deserved "huh?" I read the second "data" as "date". Stupid eyes.

The fault in your argument is that New York's governor isn't trying to falsify the covid numbers. And I've had people say that New York hospitals are inflating the numbers.

[SwampD]

I also think it makes sense that NYC is doing better than the rest of the state. They got hit the hardest at first so are most likely still taking the most precautions.

Either that, or there is no one left to die.

Edited December 22, 2020 by SwampD

[Curt]

14 hours ago, spndnchz said:

I guess where the “concern” comes in is specific party views. Let’s face it, they both suck. Discussing issues without regard to some party line vs ‘this guy’ this issue’ stuff doesn’t encourage any type of discussion. 

Huh?

If this was meant to clarify anything, I don’t think it did.

[That Aud Smell]

20 minutes ago, SwampD said:

I also think it makes sense that NYC is doing better than the rest of the state. They got hit the hardest at first so are most likely still taking the most precautions.

I have several friends and acquaintances who are NYC based - none of them is back at the office - seems like everyone is WFH until further notice. I think that sort of thing is playing a big role. 

Add to that mix: People of Manhattan (and maybe Brooklyn?) who have significant means have just ghosted out of the City. Many are out on Long Island, waiting this thing out.

[LGR4GM]

44 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

Huh?

I'm referring to the data that I linked to regarding current (i.e. last 7 days) Covid death rates.  That data shows that NY is currently doing much worse than Florida, i.e. 60% higher deaths per capita.  Aud and LGR questioned the reliability of the Florida data, which is reasonable enough, and my point is that the NYS data should be viewed with similar skepticism.

Why? What evidence can you provide casting doubt on the NYS numbers?

[LGR4GM]

57 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

Huh?

I'm referring to the data that I linked to regarding current (i.e. last 7 days) Covid death rates.  That data shows that NY is currently doing much worse than Florida, i.e. 60% higher deaths per capita.  Aud and LGR questioned the reliability of the Florida data, which is reasonable enough, and my point is that the NYS data should be viewed with similar skepticism.

Went to your link. In the last 7 days, Florida is .5, NY is .8 and NYC is .4 deaths per 100k 

 

5 hours ago, nfreeman said:

Since we could all grow old waiting for @SwampD to introduce any data in support of his hunches, here's some:  https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases_deathsper100klast7days

It's only the last 7 days, which isn't as meaningful as last 30 days, but I wasn't able to find last 30 days on a quick search.

NY has 60% more covid deaths per capita in the last 7 days than Florida, which has the 7th-fewest out of the continental 48 states.

 

This is the link. I don't know where your 60% comes from. I suppose if we take .8 and .5 we could get that. But again that isn't the rate for all of NY as these numbers are split out. So NY outside of NYC is doing a bad job right now. 

EDIT: Just realized the math was wrong you provided. The number is 38% (37.5) not 60%. 

Also the bolded section is a fun way to twist facts. First using your Methodology Florida is tied for 7th with 3 other continental places including DC. Further why are we using Continental? Really Florida is tied for 9th and being tied for 13th is .1 and the difference between 9th and the difference between 9th and 20 is .2 and the difference between 9th and being tied with greater NYS at 26th is .3 so this add on is really not anything of note especially if Florida is cooking the books which there is evidence of. 

So your original premise that "NY is doing much worse than Florida" is not really that sound. 

Edited December 22, 2020 by LGR4GM

[nfreeman]

12 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Went to your link. In the last 7 days, Florida is .5, NY is .8 and NYC is .4 deaths per 100k 

 

This is the link. I don't know where your 60% comes from. I suppose if we take .8 and .5 we could get that. But again that isn't the rate for all of NY as these numbers are split out. So NY outside of NYC is doing a bad job right now. 

EDIT: Just realized the math was wrong you provided. The number is 38% (37.5) not 60%. 

Also the bolded section is a fun way to twist facts. First using your Methodology Florida is tied for 7th with 3 other continental places including DC. Further why are we using Continental? Really Florida is tied for 9th and being tied for 13th is .1 and the difference between 9th and the difference between 9th and 20 is .2 and the difference between 9th and being tied with greater NYS at 26th is .3 so this add on is really not anything of note especially if Florida is cooking the books which there is evidence of. 

So your original premise that "NY is doing much worse than Florida" is not really that sound. 

No.  0.8 is 60% higher than 0.5.  (Conversely, 0.5 is 37.5% lower than 0.8.)

I'm using continental because isolated/island locales like AK and HI seem like they are qualitatively different from the continental states.  But I don't think that is a big deal either way. 

As for the NYS/NYC numbers -- do the NY numbers in that link exclude NYC?  I didn't see that noted on that web page, but it's possible. 

As for whether NY is cooking the books -- everyone is of course free to trust, or distrust, whomever they choose.  I think you and Aud are kidding yourselves if you think that NYS, which has suffered under a highly corrupt state government for decades (regardless of which party has been in power) is more honorable than any other state in this regard, but YMMV. 

 

 

[LGR4GM]

18 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

No.  0.8 is 60% higher than 0.5.  (Conversely, 0.5 is 37.5% lower than 0.8.)

I'm using continental because isolated/island locales like AK and HI seem like they are qualitatively different from the continental states.  But I don't think that is a big deal either way. 

As for the NYS/NYC numbers -- do the NY numbers in that link exclude NYC?  I didn't see that noted on that web page, but it's possible. 

As for whether NY is cooking the books -- everyone is of course free to trust, or distrust, whomever they choose.  I think you and Aud are kidding yourselves if you think that NYS, which has suffered under a highly corrupt state government for decades (regardless of which party has been in power) is more honorable than any other state in this regard, but YMMV. 

 

 

Then why is there NYC .4 and NY .8 if they aren't separate?

Again, provide evidence that NY is cooking the books or using fake numbers. Provide a theory on why they would even. 

Edited December 22, 2020 by LGR4GM

[LGR4GM]

I understand what you were saying with 60% more. You are doing magnitudes more as opposed to how I was viewing it which was as 8 =100%

Edited December 22, 2020 by LGR4GM

[freester]

Got the Pfizer  vaccine and had no side effects at all. I have heard that the 2nd dose has more side effects. Hopefully as more people are vaccinated those that fear the vaccine will change their outlook and take the vaccine.  

[nfreeman]

1 hour ago, That Aud Smell said:

I have several friends and acquaintances who are NYC based - none of them is back at the office - seems like everyone is WFH until further notice. I think that sort of thing is playing a big role. 

Add to that mix: People of Manhattan (and maybe Brooklyn?) who have significant means have just ghosted out of the City. Many are out on Long Island, waiting this thing out.

Both of these are accurate, especially the WFH point.

Many of those who fled NYC in the spring have returned, mostly due to schools being (somewhat) back in session.  But many have stayed gone, at least for a substantial percentage of each week.

[LGR4GM]

6 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

Both of these are accurate, especially the WFH point.

Many of those who fled NYC in the spring have returned, mostly due to schools being (somewhat) back in session.  But many have stayed gone, at least for a substantial percentage of each week.

What evidence do you have ny is manipulating data?

[Weave]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

Then why is there NYC .4 and NY .8 if they aren't separate?

Again, provide evidence that NY is cooking the books or using fake numbers. Provide a theory on why they would even. 

NY number could still be a blend of NYC and upstate, and NYC separated out for comparison.  Just a possibility.

[Weave]

2 hours ago, nfreeman said:

No.  0.8 is 60% higher than 0.5.  (Conversely, 0.5 is 37.5% lower than 0.8.)

I'm using continental because isolated/island locales like AK and HI seem like they are qualitatively different from the continental states.  But I don't think that is a big deal either way. 

As for the NYS/NYC numbers -- do the NY numbers in that link exclude NYC?  I didn't see that noted on that web page, but it's possible. 

As for whether NY is cooking the books -- everyone is of course free to trust, or distrust, whomever they choose.  I think you and Aud are kidding yourselves if you think that NYS, which has suffered under a highly corrupt state government for decades (regardless of which party has been in power) is more honorable than any other state in this regard, but YMMV. 

 

 

Freeman, you gotta have something other than “I just don’t trust them” if you are going to assume their numbers are just as inaccurate as a known manipulated data set.  FL is an extreme given the fact that the data was known to be heavily massaged.  Why would you assume any other state would be at that extreme without any real signs of data manipulation or even a motivation to engage in data manipulation?

[WildCard]

8 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

It's whataboutism and false equivalence. This is my big thing for NY. How does manipulating the data help? In Florida that answer is obvious and well connected, in NY what's the point?

I had heard NYS got more in funds the more COVID deaths they reported. 

[Weave]

2 minutes ago, WildCard said:

I had heard NYS got more in funds the more COVID deaths they reported. 

That was an early story.  My memory was that it was fully debunked 

[Brawndo]

20 minutes ago, WildCard said:

I had heard NYS got more in funds the more COVID deaths they reported. 

Hospital Systems received more funding for the based on the number of Covid Patients they treated not the number of deaths 
 

For example in WNY, Kaleida and Catholic Health both received extra money, while ECMC did not.